i wouldn't be surprised if the kings select Porzingis in the draft

[funkykingston]

Here's the conclusion I've come to about Porzingis after watching more tape on him:

Regardless of whether he ultimately becomes a great player, a bust or something in between I think he is going to struggle mightily his rookie season.

There's not a single thing I look at and think, "oh, he'll at least be able to lean on that skill while he adjusts to the NBA".

He's not a good 3pt shooter, he's not a passer, he's not a defender, a rebounder, a low post scorer, or even a guy who will get out in transition or crash the glass for easy points.

Porzingis had nice shot mechanics and can hit on catch and shoots, pull ups or coming off screens. That said, his shooting from long range, while impressive for a 19 year old 7 footer, is still unreliable. He's better on midrange and turnaround jumpers. He works well coming off screens, mainly because he's quicker than most bigs chasing him around. On the NBA level he's not going to get that kind of spacing. He can't keep opponents off the blocks or establish post position himself and his box out and basic defensive fundamentals are really shaky. He also doesn't finish strong in traffic or when attacking the basket.

I see stronger, more mobile NBA bigs giving him fits. And the idea of him trying to keep someone like Z-Bo off the block seems like a cruel position to put the kid in.

I think his first season he's going to end up getting relegated to an off the bench stretch four who shoots a very poor percentage. Dirk Nowitzki came into the NBA about a year older as a better shooter and a more polished product and (in the lockout year) put up 8 & 6 in 24 minutes while shooting around 20% from three. I think Porzingis would be lucky to get close to those numbers his first season.

I'm not saying he can't be a very good player down the road, but what I am saying is that you're unlikely to see more than flashes his rookie season. He's a long way from being a contributor.

That said, I think he's the type of guy that looks REALLY good in pre-draft workouts. And on paper he fits very well with what the Magic are trying to build. I could see him being off the board by six. Which quite honestly would be a relief for me. Porzingis has rare tools but he also probably has the highest bust potential in the top 10.

 

[BMiller52]

I think it could be the best pick to be honest. The guy has the most star potential IMO out of the players we'll have available to us, and he seems athletic enough to not be a liability on D. On O he wouldn't be asked to do too much too early since most of the offense would be run through DMC and Gay anyway, so he can atleast space the floor for those guys and knock down open shots.

 

[Gilles]

On offense he moves same way as Bargnani and goes for the same moves (check previous page and compare it to any highlight mixes of Porzingis), and Il Mago was more ready physically, so Kristaps will need to add more weight, which will limit his mobility, same as Bargnani.

 

[rainmaker]

There's different types of body frames and different types of weight you can add. If you add 15-20 lbs of muscle and do it the correct way, it's not going to slow down a guy like Porzingis. The correct leg and core program could see him become more explosive.

Bargnani was never near the athlete this kid is. He was slow footed to begin with. In the open court and attacking the rim he's nothing like Bargnani. At 19 his most athletic days are still in front of him. Like anyone, he'll start slowing in his mid 20's.

 

[Gilles]

I suggest you take another look at young Bargnani - he absolutely had same mobility and lift. Porzingis is simply longer, what makes his finishes around the rim look effortless.

 

[rainmaker]

No, not close. He moves far more like Antetokounmpo than Bargnani.

Bargnani never had the above the rim game nor the explosiveness Porzingis has. As for adding some weight, it didn't slow down Durant who also has a similar build, far more similar than Bargnani's who is borderline chubby.

 

[Mass]

The problem with Bargnani is that he's just a p***y, a soft loser with no heart. And I know him well, because I'm italian and I've seen him play since his early days in Treviso. So it's not a matter of speed, athleticism or wathever, when you just don't care about getting better. That's why I wouldn't compare Porzingis to Bargnani.

That said, I've seen a couple of Porzingis' games, and I didn't get the opinion he's ready to contribute right now. Yes, he has potential, but as someone said, potential means you have done nothing so far. Vasely had potential, Bargnani had potential, many other players had. Maybe Porzingis will develop into a good player or even a star, who knows, but I wouldn't draft him. If WCS is there, and we pick Porzingis, I swear I will kill someone.

 

[Gilles]

Plays at 1:05, 1:16, 2:19 or 3:00 are just as impressive as any of Kristaps', and those occurred in NBA games.
At 2:02 he beat everyone up the court.

There was a reason Bargnani went #1 - he was long, moving well in all directions, skilled and made impressive plays.

As for chubbiness you need to consider, that

• Bargnani had wider shoulders, so he doesn't look as scrawny
  
• most games of early Bargnani are in 16:9 format (everyone is thicker and wider), while Porzingis' are in 16:10. Cameras add 15 pounds to poor Andrea.

He was once scrawny too.

 

[Hansel]

The problem with Bargnani is that he's just a p***y, a soft loser with no heart. And I know him well, because I'm italian and I've seen him play since his early days in Treviso. So it's not a matter of speed, athleticism or wathever, when you just don't care about getting better. That's why I wouldn't compare Porzingis to Bargnani.

Even his skillset was overrated and he was the 1st pick especially 'cause that draft came after Nowitzki's MVP season and the trend during those years was focused on european big men who can shoot from three. I don't think Bargnani is soft or a p****y, he just doesn't care about basketball at all. And if you play without that "fire", you're in trouble, especially if you play under the basket. You can see his approach to basketball through his interviews: about his inability to grab rebounds he said "The game is called basketball, not reboundball" and about his (and his teammates) production during garbage time he said "Verba volant, stats manent".

I don't have a clear opinion on Porzingis, he's a risky pick.
On the other hand, I think Hezonja is going to be a good player.
In both cases I don't think we have time to wait for them.

 

[jdbraver]

Porzingis doesn't fit the win now FO mentality. Even if we draft him he will be moved shortly after.

 

[Mass]

You can see his approach to basketball through his interviews: about his inability to grab rebounds he said "The game is called basketball, not reboundball" and about his (and his teammates) production during garbage time he said "Verba volant, stats manent".

This is exactly what I call being a p***y and a soft loser...

 

[ilmago]

The problem with Bargnani is that he's just a p***y, a soft loser with no heart. And I know him well, because I'm italian and I've seen him play since his early days in Treviso. So it's not a matter of speed, athleticism or wathever, when you just don't care about getting better. That's why I wouldn't compare Porzingis to Bargnani.

That said, I've seen a couple of Porzingis' games, and I didn't get the opinion he's ready to contribute right now. Yes, he has potential, but as someone said, potential means you have done nothing so far. Vasely had potential, Bargnani had potential, many other players had. Maybe Porzingis will develop into a good player or even a star, who knows, but I wouldn't draft him. If WCS is there, and we pick Porzingis, I swear I will kill someone.

I perfectly agree with you.
I'm italian too, and my nick is for Bargnani. When he was in Treviso (but he's from Rome, where I live) I was fascinated by his skill at his age. I think Porginzis seems to be a little below Bargnani (at the same age) but I have to admit that Andrea is too fuc**** soft without "nastiness" or determination (while the others 2 kids from Italy like Gallo and Beli play with these "moral" skills, and also Datome did). Maybe Kristaps could improve and become the next Dirk, or maybe not. Who knows?

 

[kingsboi]

Every single draft it seems there is a Euro project whether it be a big or guard or forward that gets drafted early in the draft and more often than not do not pan out. I'd like to see successful Euro players drafted in the top 10 in the last ten drafts.

 

[Mike]

Has Porzingis, and Hezonja for that matter, said that they are definitely coming over to the NBA for next season? Or have they simply declared and whoever drafts them run the risk of seeing them stay in Europe?

Can't say I've read anything that says either way.

 

[Gilles]

Hezonja is leaving Barcelona the moment they are out of/win POs.
Porzingis' team reportedly wants buyout money, and will actively push him out.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Every single draft it seems there is a Euro project whether it be a big or guard or forward that gets drafted early in the draft and more often than not do not pan out. I'd like to see successful Euro players drafted in the top 10 in the last ten drafts.

You'd be wrong. Obviously there are plenty of Euro busts from down through the years, but really not that many have gone high in the last 10 years, and of those who have, surprisingly few have been busts. They actually probably have a better record than American players, though obviously the Americans usually turn into the superstars.

I'll make the list for you in a little while.

 

[206Fan]

I perfectly agree with you.
I'm italian too, and my nick is for Bargnani. When he was in Treviso (but he's from Rome, where I live) I was fascinated by his skill at his age. I think Porginzis seems to be a little below Bargnani (at the same age) but I have to admit that Andrea is too fuc**** soft without "nastiness" or determination (while the others 2 kids from Italy like Gallo and Beli play with these "moral" skills, and also Datome did). Maybe Kristaps could improve and become the next Dirk, or maybe not. Who knows?

Baragni isn't too bad of a player. I'd be happy if he turned out to be Bargani. I think people forget how good Bargs was before his injuries. Porzingis needs to gain more strength though. He's soft sometimes and passive. Doesn't demand the ball, but when he gets it, he's smart with it.

 

[kingsboi]

You'd be wrong. Obviously there are plenty of Euro busts from down through the years, but really not that many have gone high in the last 10 years, and of those who have, surprisingly few have been busts. They actually probably have a better record than American players, though obviously the Americans usually turn into the superstars.

I'll make the list for you in a little while.

I am not talking about where they were selected. Plenty of Euro players have become fine NBA players, the point I was trying to get across was how many in the lottery have gone on to be successful. The majority of them get picked in the mid teens or late first round, etc. Teams don't want to take a chance on a Euro in the top 10 anymore and with good reason when that player can be had later in the draft.

 

[Letsgokings13]

Uh oh


Michael Scotto‏@MikeAScotto
Sources: Kristaps Porzingis will draw significant interest from Orlando Magic (No. 5), Sacramento Kings (No. 6) and Detroit Pistons (No. 8).

https://twitter.com/MikeAScotto/status/601406010771800064

 

[Dime Dropper]

I am not talking about where they were selected. Plenty of Euro players have become fine NBA players, the point I was trying to get across was how many in the lottery have gone on to be successful. The majority of them get picked in the mid teens or late first round, etc. Teams don't want to take a chance on a Euro in the top 10 anymore and with good reason when that player can be had later in the draft.

But you just said "gets drafted early in the draft and more often than not do not pan out." You go on to say " successful Euro players drafted in the top 10 in the last ten drafts." Even in the post I just quoted, you talk about "how many in the lottery have gone on to be successful."

If that's not talking about where they were selected, I don't know what is. Colour me confused. I don't even know what your point is now.

I had thought the point you were making is that a lot of the Euros who get selected in the top ten turn out to be busts. I was saying that this isn't the case any more so than it is for US players (probably less so, in fact).

Maybe I'm just not understanding your point. Can you clarify it for me?

 

[kingsboi]

But you just said "gets drafted early in the draft and more often than not do not pan out." You go on to say " successful Euro players drafted in the top 10 in the last ten drafts." Even in the post I just quoted, you talk about "how many in the lottery have gone on to be successful."

If that's not talking about where they were selected, I don't know what is. Colour me confused. I don't even know what your point is now.

I had thought the point you were making is that a lot of the Euros who get selected in the top ten turn out to be busts. I was saying that this isn't the case any more so than it is for US players (probably less so, in fact).

Maybe I'm just not understanding your point. Can you clarify it for me?

Euro players in the top ten don't pan out as much as Euro players that get drafted later in the draft maybe because of high expectations or hype. All I wanted to see is a list of Euro players drafted in the last ten drafts in the top 10 and see where and what they are now.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Euro players in the top ten don't pan out as much as Euro players that get drafted later in the draft maybe because of high expectations or hype. All I wanted to see is a list of Euro players drafted in the last ten drafts in the top 10 and see where and what they are now.

Ahh, that's what I thought. And my answer is that most of the top 10 Euro picks in the last 10 drafts did NOT bust. Some did, of course. But not many have been taken in the top 10, and from those who have been taken in the top 10, most of them panned out quite well. I'll make a list tomorrow, it's late where I am.

 

[funkykingston]

Uh oh


Michael Scotto‏@MikeAScotto
Sources: Kristaps Porzingis will draw significant interest from Orlando Magic (No. 5), Sacramento Kings (No. 6) and Detroit Pistons (No. 8).

https://twitter.com/MikeAScotto/status/601406010771800064

Uh oh why?

Because you want the Kings to draft Porzingis or because you don't? I would expect all of those teams to have significant interest in Porzingis because on paper he is a really interesting prospect who can fill multiple needs that they each have. Personally I'm not high on him but I think he's the type of player who is very intriguing AND who will likely look very good in workouts.

Personally I hope the Magic fall in love with the kid and either draft him or scare another team who loves him into trading for the Knick's pick to nab him. In that scenario Mudiay likely falls to the Kings as I can't see Orlando grabbing another athlete with a suspect jumper, especially a PG when they have Payton.

 

[notoriousBEN3]

Ahh, that's what I thought. And my answer is that most of the top 10 Euro picks in the last 10 drafts did NOT bust. Some did, of course. But not many have been taken in the top 10, and from those who have been taken in the top 10, most of them panned out quite well. I'll make a list tomorrow, it's late where I am.

I'm curious to see this list. The only successful players that come to mind are Rubio, who while good, has fallen quite short of expectations IMO, and maybe Jonas V on the Raptors, who i don't really know much about to comment on. There have certainly been less international prospects drafted top 10 in the recent past, but i can't think of any that have really blown up to become super stars or even all stars, at least as of right now, and i think a significant amount of them have been busts (Jan Vesely, Yi Jianlian, Biyombo, Etc.) And if you get out of top 10, there are still a lot of international guys that haven't quite lived up to hopes (too lazy to list).

I think generally the best you can hope for in a Euro prospect is Dirk, and while he has obviously been a tremendous player, i think players like that with such unique skill sets are extremely difficult to build around. It would be nice to have a stretch 4 or 5 who can hit from deep to clear the middle a little bit, but we desperately need defense next to Cuz, and i think generally with stretch big guys, you don't often get stellar interior defense along with that 3 pt stroke. Bottom line, i'm always hesitant with Euro guys and drafting them so high is more risk than i'd like to take in this draft. If one of the top 4 guys falls, i'll reconsider, but for now, give me WCS and call it a day.

 

[Dime Dropper]

I'm curious to see this list. The only successful players that come to mind are Rubio, who while good, has fallen quite short of expectations IMO, and maybe Jonas V on the Raptors, who i don't really know much about to comment on. There have certainly been less international prospects drafted top 10 in the recent past, but i can't think of any that have really blown up to become super stars or even all stars, at least as of right now, and i think a significant amount of them have been busts (Jan Vesely, Yi Jianlian, Biyombo, Etc.) And if you get out of top 10, there are still a lot of international guys that haven't quite lived up to hopes (too lazy to list).

I think generally the best you can hope for in a Euro prospect is Dirk, and while he has obviously been a tremendous player, i think players like that with such unique skill sets are extremely difficult to build around. It would be nice to have a stretch 4 or 5 who can hit from deep to clear the middle a little bit, but we desperately need defense next to Cuz, and i think generally with stretch big guys, you don't often get stellar interior defense along with that 3 pt stroke. Bottom line, i'm always hesitant with Euro guys and drafting them so high is more risk than i'd like to take in this draft. If one of the top 4 guys falls, i'll reconsider, but for now, give me WCS and call it a day.

I agree with your second paragraph. I don't even want any of the Euros in this draft, and I usually don't want any of the Euros in any draft. I was more making the point that most of the Euros taken in the top 10 over the last decade haven't bust. Some have, most haven't. I'm not disputing the fact that pretty much none of them are legit stars, rather that they're solid, contributing NBA'ers.

As for this draft, give me WCS and I'm going home happy.

 

[rainmaker]

Something none of us can answer is the personality and mentality of a player. Some of that will come across in workouts/interviews and some of that will have to come from talking to folks overseas who are close to some of these international players.

I agree with Funky that wherever Porzingis goes he's going to have a rough first year and that is where his mentality comes into play and whether he's the type to use that as fuel to take the next step and push through it.

I'd expect that if we were to draft him, Vlade would have done a fair amount of homework on the kid through his Euro connections. And I don't want to sound stereotypical here but in general, I find Latvians to be quite tough, come from a tougher culture, much like Serbians/Russians. So much of this game and development is mental, it's what you do after you get here, your work ethic. How good do these guys truly want to be, how good do they truly think they can be and how much work are they willing to put in.

That's not stuff we'll be able to tell at this point.

 

[Letsgokings13]

Uh oh why?

Because you want the Kings to draft Porzingis or because you don't? I would expect all of those teams to have significant interest in Porzingis because on paper he is a really interesting prospect who can fill multiple needs that they each have. Personally I'm not high on him but I think he's the type of player who is very intriguing AND who will likely look very good in workouts.

Personally I hope the Magic fall in love with the kid and either draft him or scare another team who loves him into trading for the Knick's pick to nab him. In that scenario Mudiay likely falls to the Kings as I can't see Orlando grabbing another athlete with a suspect jumper, especially a PG when they have Payton.

Uh oh as in I don't really want him. I like WCS, Winslow, Mudiay all much better. Just my opinion

 

[206Fan]

I'm curious to see this list. The only successful players that come to mind are Rubio, who while good, has fallen quite short of expectations IMO, and maybe Jonas V on the Raptors, who i don't really know much about to comment on. There have certainly been less international prospects drafted top 10 in the recent past, but i can't think of any that have really blown up to become super stars or even all stars, at least as of right now, and i think a significant amount of them have been busts (Jan Vesely, Yi Jianlian, Biyombo, Etc.) And if you get out of top 10, there are still a lot of international guys that haven't quite lived up to hopes (too lazy to list).

I think generally the best you can hope for in a Euro prospect is Dirk, and while he has obviously been a tremendous player, i think players like that with such unique skill sets are extremely difficult to build around. It would be nice to have a stretch 4 or 5 who can hit from deep to clear the middle a little bit, but we desperately need defense next to Cuz, and i think generally with stretch big guys, you don't often get stellar interior defense along with that 3 pt stroke. Bottom line, i'm always hesitant with Euro guys and drafting them so high is more risk than i'd like to take in this draft. If one of the top 4 guys falls, i'll reconsider, but for now, give me WCS and call it a day.

Let's go back as far as 2008.

2008: 1.6 Danillo Gallinari
2009: 1.5 Ricky Rubio
2011: 1.5 Jonas Valancinus. 1.6 Jan Vesley 1.7 Bismack Biyombo
2013: 1.5 Alex Len
2014: 1.4 Dante Exum

So there aren't a bunch taken in the top 10 as of the last 7 years. Only real bust is Vesley. Biyombo is at least a role player.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Let's go back as far as 2008.

2008: 1.6 Danillo Gallinari
2009: 1.5 Ricky Rubio
2011: 1.5 Jonas Valancinus. 1.6 Jan Vesley 1.7 Bismack Biyombo
2013: 1.5 Alex Len
2014: 1.4 Dante Exum

So there aren't a bunch taken in the top 10 as of the last 7 years. Only real bust is Vesley. Biyombo is at least a role player.

I think that there's also inherently a problem with the definition of "Euro" as it has come to mean "International Player" in a lot of cases. But let me just illustrate the difficulties in trying to apply the word "Euro" and see who counts and who does not:

1) U.S. born, played at U.S. high school, played at U.S. college (e.g. Kevin Durant) - NOT Euro
2) U.S. born, played at U.S. high school, played in Europe instead of college (e.g. Brandon Jennings) - Euro??
3) U.S. born, played at U.S. high school, played in international league other than Europe (e.g. Jeremy Tyler) - Euro??
4) European born, played at U.S. high school, played at U.S. college (e.g. Donte Greene) - Euro??
5) International born, played at U.S. high school, played in international league other than Europe (e.g. Emmanuel Mudiay) - Euro??
6) European born, played at U.S. college (e.g. Alex Len) - Euro??
7) International born, played at U.S. college (e.g. Andrew Wiggins) - Euro??
8) European born, played in Europe (e.g. Ricky Rubio) - definitely Euro
9) International born, played in Europe (e.g. Bismack Biyombo) - Euro??
10) International born, played internationally other than Europe (e.g. Dante Exum) - Euro??

And I'm sure you could find examples for other combinations as well.

I prefer, in my lucid moments, to avoid the "Euro" term and talk about "International" players, but even then it's tough. My dividing line is roughly this: If a player plays in the NCAAs (actually plays, no Enes Kanter stuff), I don't consider them an international player. Scouts in the U.S. have had at least one year to see them play against the major measuring stick that most players are measured by, and thus should have nearly as good a feel for them as if they had been born in the U.S. Cases like Jennings and Mudiay are a bit tougher, because they played H.S. ball in the U.S. Back in the one-and-done era you wouldn't have considered LeBron anything but a U.S. player. I guess I'd break it down like this, based on how much info the NBA scouts really have:

U.S. H.S/NCAA (Most info)
International/NCAA
U.S. H.S./International
U.S H.S. One-and-done (these don't exist anymore)
True International (Least info)

But still, that highlights my really-way-too-long point, which is that we have a lot more info about a guy like Alex Len than we do about a guy like Kristaps Porzingis, and it seems wrong to me to lump them together merely based on where the player was born.

 

[206Fan]

I think that there's also inherently a problem with the definition of "Euro" as it has come to mean "International Player" in a lot of cases. But let me just illustrate the difficulties in trying to apply the word "Euro" and see who counts and who does not:

1) U.S. born, played at U.S. high school, played at U.S. college (e.g. Kevin Durant) - NOT Euro
2) U.S. born, played at U.S. high school, played in Europe instead of college (e.g. Brandon Jennings) - Euro??
3) U.S. born, played at U.S. high school, played in international league other than Europe (e.g. Jeremy Tyler) - Euro??
4) European born, played at U.S. high school, played at U.S. college (e.g. Donte Greene) - Euro??
5) International born, played at U.S. high school, played in international league other than Europe (e.g. Emmanuel Mudiay) - Euro??
6) European born, played at U.S. college (e.g. Alex Len) - Euro??
7) International born, played at U.S. college (e.g. Andrew Wiggins) - Euro??
8) European born, played in Europe (e.g. Ricky Rubio) - definitely Euro
9) International born, played in Europe (e.g. Bismack Biyombo) - Euro??
10) International born, played internationally other than Europe (e.g. Dante Exum) - Euro??

And I'm sure you could find examples for other combinations as well.

I prefer, in my lucid moments, to avoid the "Euro" term and talk about "International" players, but even then it's tough. My dividing line is roughly this: If a player plays in the NCAAs (actually plays, no Enes Kanter stuff), I don't consider them an international player. Scouts in the U.S. have had at least one year to see them play against the major measuring stick that most players are measured by, and thus should have nearly as good a feel for them as if they had been born in the U.S. Cases like Jennings and Mudiay are a bit tougher, because they played H.S. ball in the U.S. Back in the one-and-done era you wouldn't have considered LeBron anything but a U.S. player. I guess I'd break it down like this, based on how much info the NBA scouts really have:

U.S. H.S/NCAA (Most info)
International/NCAA
U.S. H.S./International
U.S H.S. One-and-done (these don't exist anymore)
True International (Least info)

But still, that highlights my really-way-too-long point, which is that we have a lot more info about a guy like Alex Len than we do about a guy like Kristaps Porzingis, and it seems wrong to me to lump them together merely based on where the player was born.

I just kind of assumed the OP meant international players who are born overseas and have played overseas. Alex Len fits both criterial, but he came to the US to play 2 years of college. Kanter came here to play college, but he never played because of intelligibility.

I personally don't feel like Mudiay nor Jennings are international players. Both started in the AAU system(or something similar) and they just skipped out on college. Mudiay wasn't born here, but he came here when he was around 6? Still pretty young and he's well adapted into the culture.

I think maybe it comes down to players who've played international/overseas basketball from ages 14-18 should count as international players.