Hoopsworld says Monroe to the Kings
- Thread starter KingKong55
- Start date
Not even, Brad could at least shoot, Monroe can't even do that. About all Monroe can do well is pass, everything else he does subpar except for possibly rebounding and I have serious doubts about him being able to rebound well in the NBA.
At this stage I really want cousins, but I'd be ok with ANYONE other then Monroe.
At this stage I really want cousins, but I'd be ok with ANYONE other then Monroe.
That wasn't your orginal point. You said that your problem with Monroe was he didn't produce enough in college to be an NBA quality big man. That's false. Monroe's stats stack up just fine to a number of very good NBA big men, maybe not dominant, but we're picking 5th. Sure-fire dominant big men do not fall to 5. Cousins was extremely productive and about as close as you can get but teams are terrifeid of his attitude and conditioning.
I actually read somewhere that the Monroe workout went really well. Ahh, just found it. None other than Chad Ford.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft
When you think about it though, are you ( or anyone ) that surprised Samhan worked Monroe? Im not, but Im a big Omar fan. Samhan has a nice post game, Monroe isnt a very good defender and he's on the thin side ( compared to Cousins ) I wasnt surprised at all when I read this.
On another note - We have been talking about Cousins and Monroe for months now, but I wouldnt be all that surprised If Favors falls to us. Ford said that Cousins dominated Favors in NJ, and now its a toss up for who gets taken there. If minni still has their heart set on Johnson ( and reports are they are trying hard to resign Darko, giving them three bigs) then you have to think we would take Favors. At least I would hope so.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft
When you think about it though, are you ( or anyone ) that surprised Samhan worked Monroe? Im not, but Im a big Omar fan. Samhan has a nice post game, Monroe isnt a very good defender and he's on the thin side ( compared to Cousins ) I wasnt surprised at all when I read this.
On another note - We have been talking about Cousins and Monroe for months now, but I wouldnt be all that surprised If Favors falls to us. Ford said that Cousins dominated Favors in NJ, and now its a toss up for who gets taken there. If minni still has their heart set on Johnson ( and reports are they are trying hard to resign Darko, giving them three bigs) then you have to think we would take Favors. At least I would hope so.
Er what?
I'm not sure what you are calling "productive", but there would probably be tons of them were it not for the fact that many of the top NBA bigs right now entered the league before the age requirement and so came straight from high school or Europe.
But how about Carlos Boozer? Junior year averaged 8.7reb and 0.6blk in 28.4min (one of the easons he was a 2nd round pick who suprised everyone with his pro productivity).
This is actually interesting to me (an accountant) - I've been bored this evening and going through current pro rosters and using basketball-reference.com to look at guys' college stats then just computing their 40 mpg numbers. You'd be surprised to know that the vast majority of any big man on an NBA roster averaged greater than 2 blocks and 12 rebounds per game (on a 40 mpg basis).
All this to say that I just don't see NBA big-man production in Greg Monroe out of his college production. If he wasn't good enough or athletic enough to dominate in college, I would say that he's probalby not good enough or athletic enough to come close to dominating in the NBA.
All this to say that I just don't see NBA big-man production in Greg Monroe out of his college production. If he wasn't good enough or athletic enough to dominate in college, I would say that he's probalby not good enough or athletic enough to come close to dominating in the NBA.
Go back and look at everyone's age 19 season. Its the best comparison point.
Here's a few counter-examples: Brad Daugherty didn't get the blocks or the rebounds. Just a very skilled, underathletic big man with a good head on his shoulders like Monroe. Brook Lopez had the blocks but not the rebounds and was a poor shooter. Rasheed Wallace had the blocks but not the rebounds. Same with Lamarcus Aldridge.
Either way, you just picked two numbers that came out slightly ahead of what Greg Monroe did and arbitrarily said here is the cutoff point to NBA success. It doesn't mean a thing. If you want a good argument start picking out 19 year old centers with stats similar to Monroe's in the best conferences who weren't pretty good.
Here's a few counter-examples: Brad Daugherty didn't get the blocks or the rebounds. Just a very skilled, underathletic big man with a good head on his shoulders like Monroe. Brook Lopez had the blocks but not the rebounds and was a poor shooter. Rasheed Wallace had the blocks but not the rebounds. Same with Lamarcus Aldridge.
Either way, you just picked two numbers that came out slightly ahead of what Greg Monroe did and arbitrarily said here is the cutoff point to NBA success. It doesn't mean a thing. If you want a good argument start picking out 19 year old centers with stats similar to Monroe's in the best conferences who weren't pretty good.
Well sure, 'cause Bargnani didn't play college ball.
Oh, wait, you said "productive."
There are a number who wouldn't meet the rebounding criterium, such as Hawes, Hollins and Frye. But even all of those guys managed to squeak past 2.0 blocks per 40. Finding a C who is that weak of a shot blocker is pretty hard.
But I'm assuming that, if we take him, it will be as a point player, and that you're looking at the wrong stats. He gets 4.4 assists per 40, and you probably can't name another big currently in the NBA who topped that his last year in college. JT was good that way, but he only got 3.1/40.
Not that I like the idea.
Oh, wait, you said "productive."
There are a number who wouldn't meet the rebounding criterium, such as Hawes, Hollins and Frye. But even all of those guys managed to squeak past 2.0 blocks per 40. Finding a C who is that weak of a shot blocker is pretty hard.
But I'm assuming that, if we take him, it will be as a point player, and that you're looking at the wrong stats. He gets 4.4 assists per 40, and you probably can't name another big currently in the NBA who topped that his last year in college. JT was good that way, but he only got 3.1/40.
Not that I like the idea.
Monroe is a PF size and length wise, but he's an extremely poor athlete for a PF. He's a poor athlete for a center too IMO. He also has a very subpar reach for a center at 9'0.5
I don't think Monroe is Rafael Araujo or anything, but I don't think he gives you all-star potential at all, and he doesn't give you a go-to scorer or defensive anchor. I really don't see the point in taking a player that has so little of a chance of being a real impact cornerstone player. I'd take Johnson, Davis, or Cole Aldrich (in that order) over him in a heart beat.
I don't think Monroe is Rafael Araujo or anything, but I don't think he gives you all-star potential at all, and he doesn't give you a go-to scorer or defensive anchor. I really don't see the point in taking a player that has so little of a chance of being a real impact cornerstone player. I'd take Johnson, Davis, or Cole Aldrich (in that order) over him in a heart beat.
Well sure, 'cause Bargnani didn't play college ball.
Oh, wait, you said "productive."
There are a number who wouldn't meet the rebounding criterium, such as Hawes, Hollins and Frye. But even all of those guys managed to squeak past 2.0 blocks per 40. Finding a C who is that weak of a shot blocker is pretty hard.
But I'm assuming that, if we take him, it will be as a point player, and that you're looking at the wrong stats. He gets 4.4 assists per 40, and you probably can't name another big currently in the NBA who topped that his last year in college. JT was good that way, but he only got 3.1/40.
Not that I like the idea.
Oh, wait, you said "productive."
There are a number who wouldn't meet the rebounding criterium, such as Hawes, Hollins and Frye. But even all of those guys managed to squeak past 2.0 blocks per 40. Finding a C who is that weak of a shot blocker is pretty hard.
But I'm assuming that, if we take him, it will be as a point player, and that you're looking at the wrong stats. He gets 4.4 assists per 40, and you probably can't name another big currently in the NBA who topped that his last year in college. JT was good that way, but he only got 3.1/40.
Not that I like the idea.
The point isn't even necessarily the sheer # of blocks or rebounds a guy got -
The point is high rates of rebounds, steals, blocks indicate guys who are bigger, quicker, react faster, are stronger, have better hands and/or anticipation skills, etc. I.E. - guys who have these higher rates in college have a much better chance to succeed at the next level. So when I see a center with a relatively low rate in the athletic indicating stats, it just shows me that he'll most likely be nothing but a mediocre NBA player.
Although Monroe's per-40 numbers aren't as good as Cousins', the idea that he was a poor rebounder is not very well supported by the more advanced statistics.
For instance, defensive rebounding rate (DRR) is a really useful stat - it's a measure of what percentage of available defensive rebounds a player gets. Amazingly, Monroe was actually marginally better at DRR than Cousins (25.2 to 25.1). Each player led his respective conference in DRR. It can be noted that the Big East was a better conference than the SEC this year (and Georgetown's strength of schedule was #4 in the country to Kentucky's #50) so this is not exactly faint praise for Monroe. It looks a bit like dominating on the defensive boards.
What does this suggest? It suggests that part (and only part...) of the reason that Monroe had fewer rebounds than Cousins is that there were fewer available defensive rebounds to be grabbed. And sure enough, Georgetown allowed a higher shooting percentage on both 2PT shots (46.0% to 41.1%) and 3PT shots (33.5% to 31.3%) than Kentucky, so yeah, Cousins did have more rebounds available to grab.
Furthermore, if you want to see a guy on a DRR learning curve, Monroe is your guy. He improved from 16.7% in his freshman year to 25.2% in his sophomore year. That's an incredible improvement - almost equivalent to Jason Thompson's improvement from 18.4 to 27.8...but Thompson did that between his freshman and SENIOR years, in a weaker conference, after growing like six inches.
Of course, there's always offensive rebounding, and Cousins was WAY better at offensive rebounding than Monroe (an absolutely ridiculous 19.6 ORR for Cousins to only 8.7 for Monroe). So this either means that offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding are completely and totally different beasts, or that maybe Monroe and Cousins were being used differently on offense. I don't know which, but it's probably some of each.
But really the bottom line is that a guy who is the best rebounder in one of the top conferences in the country with the 4th hardest overall strength of schedule probably doesn't deserve "not athletic enough to dominate in college". Cousins is overall a better rebounder taking the offensive side into account, but that's no reason to trash Monroe.
For instance, defensive rebounding rate (DRR) is a really useful stat - it's a measure of what percentage of available defensive rebounds a player gets. Amazingly, Monroe was actually marginally better at DRR than Cousins (25.2 to 25.1). Each player led his respective conference in DRR. It can be noted that the Big East was a better conference than the SEC this year (and Georgetown's strength of schedule was #4 in the country to Kentucky's #50) so this is not exactly faint praise for Monroe. It looks a bit like dominating on the defensive boards.
What does this suggest? It suggests that part (and only part...) of the reason that Monroe had fewer rebounds than Cousins is that there were fewer available defensive rebounds to be grabbed. And sure enough, Georgetown allowed a higher shooting percentage on both 2PT shots (46.0% to 41.1%) and 3PT shots (33.5% to 31.3%) than Kentucky, so yeah, Cousins did have more rebounds available to grab.
Furthermore, if you want to see a guy on a DRR learning curve, Monroe is your guy. He improved from 16.7% in his freshman year to 25.2% in his sophomore year. That's an incredible improvement - almost equivalent to Jason Thompson's improvement from 18.4 to 27.8...but Thompson did that between his freshman and SENIOR years, in a weaker conference, after growing like six inches.
Of course, there's always offensive rebounding, and Cousins was WAY better at offensive rebounding than Monroe (an absolutely ridiculous 19.6 ORR for Cousins to only 8.7 for Monroe). So this either means that offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding are completely and totally different beasts, or that maybe Monroe and Cousins were being used differently on offense. I don't know which, but it's probably some of each.
But really the bottom line is that a guy who is the best rebounder in one of the top conferences in the country with the 4th hardest overall strength of schedule probably doesn't deserve "not athletic enough to dominate in college". Cousins is overall a better rebounder taking the offensive side into account, but that's no reason to trash Monroe.
I think he's excellent, but it doesn't matter. The point is when you're bringing up "athletic markers" in college basketball I'm pretty sure Hollinger is the guy who coined the phrase when he built the tool back in 07. At least I'd never heard of it before I read that column. Anywho, even if he didn't invent the term he's the one who polpularized it and his system says Monroe is a good prospect.
That's just one tool to use along with scouting and the intangibles about a player. I think from watching him that the GT system really didn't do him any favors and he'll be a better pro than collegian and his defense is a heck of a lot better than he gets credit for on this board. Reasonable minds may differ.
That's just one tool to use along with scouting and the intangibles about a player. I think from watching him that the GT system really didn't do him any favors and he'll be a better pro than collegian and his defense is a heck of a lot better than he gets credit for on this board. Reasonable minds may differ.
