Hoopsworld says Monroe to the Kings

[hammystyle]

And Cousins came out as the #1. But I get your point

Yes he did! He's a stud. I'd much much rather get Cousins and will be upset if we pass on Cousins for Monroe. If it meant trading up with a real piece like Casspi or Greene I think I'd be happier to get Cousins, (or Favors ideally). But I do see a good prospect in Monroe and think he's our next best option slightly ahead of Johnson and a good bit ahead of Udoh, Aldrich and Ed Davis.

 

[fnordius]

[Hollinger's] system says Monroe is a good prospect.

I think Hollinger's system is interesting, but it's far from perfect. Examples: in 2002, it made Curtis Borchardt (currently playing in France) the #4 pick, and dropped John Salmons into the second round. In 2003, it bumped Chris Kaman out of the top 4 draft picks, in order to insert pick #2, Mike Sweetney (ahead of Bosh and Wade, with Kaman dropping to 16th pick). In 2004, Luke Jackson (now playing in Italy) gets moved up from 8th pick to 5th, yet Iguodala gets dropped from 7th to 11th, right above #12 Andre Emmett (now playing in China). In 2005, Sean May was to be pick #3, displacing Deron Williams, who was supposed to drop to #11. And so on. It is sometimes surprisingly right, but completely wrong at other times. I read it most years, but I wouldn't weight it very heavily.

 

[Gary]

Not even, Brad could at least shoot, Monroe can't even do that. About all Monroe can do well is pass, everything else he does subpar except for possibly rebounding and I have serious doubts about him being able to rebound well in the NBA.

At this stage I really want cousins, but I'd be ok with ANYONE other then Monroe.

Yah 10 rebounds every 40 minutes in the NCAA will probably be about 7 or 8 in the NBA.. His Blocks will be about .5 to 1 points will probably be in the neighborhood of about 13-15 and assists will be down to about 1.5 since he won't be the distributor from the elbow..

Soooooo.. 13ppg 8apg 1bpg 1.5apg... Sounds a lot like Thompson..

 

[gunks]

Pfft...Poor man's Thompson.


I think it may just be some smoke blowing by GP and co. At least I hope so. Monroe is a pretty lame prospect. I'd like him if we were picking 12 or something.

 

[mac]

I think it's quite obvious why Cousins wouldn't want to play for GS ... small ball? DeMarcus Cousins ain't small. Watching the Warriors turn into a half court team playing through (gasp) a post presence would be ever so entertaining... and so not going to happen.

 

[Prince_XY]

For instance, defensive rebounding rate (DRR) is a really useful stat - it's a measure of what percentage of available defensive rebounds a player gets. Amazingly, Monroe was actually marginally better at DRR than Cousins (25.2 to 25.1). Each player led his respective conference in DRR. It can be noted that the Big East was a better conference than the SEC this year (and Georgetown's strength of schedule was #4 in the country to Kentucky's #50) so this is not exactly faint praise for Monroe. It looks a bit like dominating on the defensive boards.

25.2 to 25.1 ( a difference of 0.1 ) in favor of Monroe at DRR looks like a negligible difference.

I wouldn't even describe Monroe as being amazingly marginally better than Cousins because of this 0.1 difference. But I agree with you that it is quite surprising a softie BIG like Monroe got a similar DRR as Cousins.

 

[Kings5692]

If it's true that Cousins doesn't want to come here, then we have to worry about him staying in Sac. This is getting so ridiculous.

their is a big diffence between wanting to play for your favorite team an not wanting to play anywherelse

 

[Capt. Factorial]

25.2 to 25.1 ( a difference of 0.1 ) in favor of Monroe at DRR looks like a negligible difference.

That's why I used the word "marginally". I don't think there was anything in my post to suggest I think that Monroe is definitely a better rebounder than Cousins, but the numbers did turn out a teeny bit better.

But I agree with you that it is quite surprising a softie BIG like Monroe got a similar DRR as Cousins.

That's really the heart of what I was getting at. Here while the majority of the board is ripping into Monroe for being a poor rebounder, an advanced statistic suggests he's grabbing them as efficiently (on the defensive end) as Cousins, and he made big strides from last year.

If we draft Monroe there is going to be general wailing and gnashing of teeth and projectile vomiting and smashed TVs and whatever else people are threatening to do, but clearly our front office sees something in him. I don't think he has as much talent as Cousins, he's clearly not as athletic as Favors, but he's skilled, he has a great frame, and from watching him I think he plays better defense than people give him credit for. Of the top three big guys in the draft I think he has the lowest ceiling and the highest floor. I'm pretty sure his floor is significantly above the other guys' (Cousins could go off the rails, and Favors may never bulk up and develop an offensive game). I just don't have a good feel for where his ceiling is. Some people say a smaller Pau Gasol, which makes some sense given his skill set and would be hard to complain about. But Cousins could be a smaller Shaq, and Favors could bulk up into a Dwight Howard with more offense. It's a tough decision to make. We certainly won't be choosing between all three, and we might only have the choice of one. I'm not even saying which choice we should make, I just think that Monroe is a lot closer to the other two guys than most people on this board do.

 

[Kingstime]

I think Monroe is more polished and ready to play the NBA game than BOTH Favors and Cousins, but is he ready to go to toe to toe with big men like Bynum? Howard? Does he even have the mental makeup to get in the paint and get dirty with the big dogs? That's the only reason why I don't like the prospect of drafting him, like many have said on the board a big reason why their is no banner hanging in Arco is because we've never had the size to deal with Shaq. Now granted Shaq is not a factor anymore and there are really not a lot of bruising 5's but can Monroe take the physicality of the paint in the NBA like a Cousins could?

If this guy could realistically play the 4 I'd be all about drafting him ahead of anybody just off his skill set alone and his ability to stretch the defense, but he's gonna have to be our center of the future that I just can't wrap my head around.

 

[cfechter]

25.2 to 25.1 ( a difference of 0.1 ) in favor of Monroe at DRR looks like a negligible difference.

I wouldn't even describe Monroe as being amazingly marginally better than Cousins because of this 0.1 difference. But I agree with you that it is quite surprising a softie BIG like Monroe got a similar DRR as Cousins.

I tend to think that offensive rebounding rate is a much better athletic indicator than defensive rebounding rate. Defensive rate - well, 6'11 guy, already in position to make a defensive rebound (since they are closer to basket than the guy they're guarding), probably will be pretty consistent with other 6'11 guys. Offensive rebounding rate will provide a much better indicator of quickness, jumping ability and anticipation since hypothetically they have to get around guys to get to those rebounds.

 

[cfechter]

Yah 10 rebounds every 40 minutes in the NCAA will probably be about 7 or 8 in the NBA.. His Blocks will be about .5 to 1 points will probably be in the neighborhood of about 13-15 and assists will be down to about 1.5 since he won't be the distributor from the elbow..

Soooooo.. 13ppg 8apg 1bpg 1.5apg... Sounds a lot like Thompson..

Not to hijack the thread, but Thompson is still a wild card. If you look at his in season stats -

months of November and December - averaged about 16 points and 9.5 boards per game in about 35 mpg with a block and shooting over 50%. With those #'s is a solid second tier PF or center.

Months of January and February - he shot 37% and his foul rate went through the roof.

Last ten games of season, averaged 14/10 with a block per game.

If he could go 16/9.5 1 bpg shooting 50%, you have a pretty efficient PF or C. Certainly not an all-star or impact player, but one that is pretty darn productive nonetheless.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

Thompson's a fine role player who can hit the occasional J and rebound like a maniac, and would be relegated to that role, if we get either Favors or Cousins for sure. In fact, the Cousins/Dalembert would be optimal because we're surrounding this offensive, rather earthbound PF with a shotblocking/rebounding center, and then we have a pure hustler in Thompson off the bench. Would make tons of sense for the team.

Back to Monroe, and in regard to the poster three posts above this one, I doubt Monroe has that sort of mental makeup--he's not really a banger, and he's a rather average rebounder in this league, frankly. His game is rather an enigma for the league--his defensive IQ is high, but would his lack of physical tools stymie that? He can pass the ball extremely well, but would his unreliable jumper and unrefined post game take that away? His strengths to be are rather untapped, and his weaknesses are in full force the minute he steps into the league. That's why I'm extremely skeptical, even though I think his basketball IQ can overcome some of that and make him a viable team defensive/low post-passing option. I can't really see him becoming more than that in the league based on his body of work in Georgetown, however.

 

[The Hammer]

Not to hijack the thread, but Thompson is still a wild card. If you look at his in season stats -

months of November and December - averaged about 16 points and 9.5 boards per game in about 35 mpg with a block and shooting over 50%. With those #'s is a solid second tier PF or center.

Months of January and February - he shot 37% and his foul rate went through the roof.

Last ten games of season, averaged 14/10 with a block per game.

If he could go 16/9.5 1 bpg shooting 50%, you have a pretty efficient PF or C. Certainly not an all-star or impact player, but one that is pretty darn productive nonetheless.

Thanks for doing that research. JT's got some great qualitities, but I like to think of how it would fit on the championship team we are building. JT is not a starter on a champoinship team. He may put up those numbers and be "productive" but there is a lot more to it when it comes to clamping down and gritting through a tough seven game series such as we saw between the Ls and Cs. JT will have to mature. And I think he is. I think the mental piece is coming for him. He'll become a little more seasoned, but even then, I think he is perfectly suited to be a monster off the bench.

 

[cfechter]

I do have to admit that analyzing stats alone won't give you the full picture and that at some point you probably have to have some faith in the scouting process -

Shelden Williams in his final season at duke had the following 40 mpg averages -

22.7 ppg
12.94 rpg
4.6 bpg
58% shooting percetage.

Just looking at his stats alone you would conclude the dude would probably be a very good NBA player, but that's just not the case (of course, the mitigating factor for him is that he is relatively "short" for an NBA player, which really isn't too apparent in playing against other "short" college competition)

 

[cfechter]

Thanks for doing that research. JT's got some great qualitities, but I like to think of how it would fit on the championship team we are building. JT is not a starter on a champoinship team. He may put up those numbers and be "productive" but there is a lot more to it when it comes to clamping down and gritting through a tough seven game series such as we saw between the Ls and Cs. JT will have to mature. And I think he is. I think the mental piece is coming for him. He'll become a little more seasoned, but even then, I think he is perfectly suited to be a monster off the bench.

Well - I'll disagree with you there - If JT's production was 16 ppg, 9.5 rpg, 1 bpg shooting 50% from the field and 75% from the line, his production would be just as good as Lemarcus Aldridge's. I think he could be a starter on a championship team with that kind of efficiency.

 

[hammystyle]

I think Hollinger's system is interesting, but it's far from perfect. Examples: in 2002, it made Curtis Borchardt (currently playing in France) the #4 pick, and dropped John Salmons into the second round. In 2003, it bumped Chris Kaman out of the top 4 draft picks, in order to insert pick #2, Mike Sweetney (ahead of Bosh and Wade, with Kaman dropping to 16th pick). In 2004, Luke Jackson (now playing in Italy) gets moved up from 8th pick to 5th, yet Iguodala gets dropped from 7th to 11th, right above #12 Andre Emmett (now playing in China). In 2005, Sean May was to be pick #3, displacing Deron Williams, who was supposed to drop to #11. And so on. It is sometimes surprisingly right, but completely wrong at other times. I read it most years, but I wouldn't weight it very heavily.

That's not how you should look at the tool. You don't say here's how the system ranks the players so there's our board. Its completely based on paper numbers, and doesn't take into account anything you can see with your eyes or learn about a player's makeup. Among the examples of failures you used, most were heavily due to weight and injury.

The way it is useful is when you take your own board compare it and see where the major discrepancies are. If you have a guy much higer or lower it might be wise to re-evaluate and wonder whether your eyes are deceiving you a little bit. So when John Wall shows up at #3, you don't move him down two spots, you just are glad the computer likes him too.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Back to Monroe, and in regard to the poster three posts above this one, I doubt Monroe has that sort of mental makeup--he's not really a banger, and he's a rather average rebounder in this league, frankly.

Yes, the perception of Monroe is that he's soft, he's not a banger, he doesn't have the mental makeup, etc.

I see a guy who made incredible strides between his freshman and sophomore year to become the single best defensive rebounder in one of the top three conferences in the country, and to do that against the #4 strength of schedule in the nation. And that reality flies right in the face of the "softie" perception. A softie doesn't pull that off.

And I don't really know the answer to this, but how often does a cream-of-the-crop rebounder in the NCAA become only an average rebounder at the next level? He seems to have the pedigree of an above-average NBA rebounder to me.

 

[cfechter]

Yes, the perception of Monroe is that he's soft, he's not a banger, he doesn't have the mental makeup, etc.

I see a guy who made incredible strides between his freshman and sophomore year to become the single best defensive rebounder in one of the top three conferences in the country, and to do that against the #4 strength of schedule in the nation. And that reality flies right in the face of the "softie" perception. A softie doesn't pull that off.

And I don't really know the answer to this, but how often does a cream-of-the-crop rebounder in the NCAA become only an average rebounder at the next level? He seems to have the pedigree of an above-average NBA rebounder to me.

He's really not a cream of the crop rebounder. He was good, yes, but certainly not a dominant one at the college level.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

He's really not a cream of the crop rebounder. He was good, yes, but certainly not a dominant one at the college level.

The best rebounder in a top-three conference. Call it what you will.

 

[cfechter]

The best rebounder in a top-three conference. Call it what you will.

I'll call him a very average rebounder for a college big about to be drafted in the top 6 or 7 players in the NBA.

 

[Kingster]

That's why I used the word "marginally". I don't think there was anything in my post to suggest I think that Monroe is definitely a better rebounder than Cousins, but the numbers did turn out a teeny bit better.



That's really the heart of what I was getting at. Here while the majority of the board is ripping into Monroe for being a poor rebounder, an advanced statistic suggests he's grabbing them as efficiently (on the defensive end) as Cousins, and he made big strides from last year.

If we draft Monroe there is going to be general wailing and gnashing of teeth and projectile vomiting and smashed TVs and whatever else people are threatening to do, but clearly our front office sees something in him. I don't think he has as much talent as Cousins, he's clearly not as athletic as Favors, but he's skilled, he has a great frame, and from watching him I think he plays better defense than people give him credit for. Of the top three big guys in the draft I think he has the lowest ceiling and the highest floor. I'm pretty sure his floor is significantly above the other guys' (Cousins could go off the rails, and Favors may never bulk up and develop an offensive game). I just don't have a good feel for where his ceiling is. Some people say a smaller Pau Gasol, which makes some sense given his skill set and would be hard to complain about. But Cousins could be a smaller Shaq, and Favors could bulk up into a Dwight Howard with more offense. It's a tough decision to make. We certainly won't be choosing between all three, and we might only have the choice of one. I'm not even saying which choice we should make, I just think that Monroe is a lot closer to the other two guys than most people on this board do.

Maybe Monroe isn't closer to Cousins, who many view as great. Maybe Cousins is closer to Monroe, who many view as not so great.