[GSW/DAL] "We're going to go like hell."
- Thread starter Mr. S£im Citrus
- Start date
Nazman
Bench
Thing is not only is this definitely the most fun i've had as well but I do feel connected to this team. For lots of reasons. Primarily because i LOVE the way they play. Very entertaining. Very.
And for another they are local, relatively speaking.
I remember after moving into this area how i first came upon the Kings. It had been some years but as soon as JWill showed up w/ the others of record they got my attention and it became a love affair.
That's how life goes sometimes. You discover things that brighten up your life and you tend to maintain a focus there.
I feel like the Warriors are a hot commodity right now. They provide lots of good feelings and are again, extremely entertaining.
How do you not get behind the Baron and JRich.
And they are a Northern California.
Most fun i've had w/ the NBA in a long time.
Happy to call them a part of my locale...
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mcsluggo
Starter
Big Cuz 15
All-Star
Can you feel the intensity of the crowd? I love rooting for the underdog! I thought the mavs were certainly going to even the series yesterday but the warriors pulled through with a commanding 3-1 lead! Go warriors 
kupman
Starter
Before the series started I heard him say on his show that GS did not stand a chance and the Mavs would beat them in 5. I like the guy, but it just makes me laugh when "experts" are so sure of themselves and then are completely wrong.
Gargamel
Starter
GS is gonna have to win Gm6 to win this series. I don't see them winning either game in Dallas. Remains to be seen whether they realize how hard it is in this league to close a team out, especially a 67 win team.
Double-K
Starter
This could be the first time in western civilization that I actually agree with a Lakers fan.........
piksi
Hall of Famer
Allas is a 67 win team against the other 28 teams. I think that it can work for their advantage if they don't think too much (GS).
Gargamel
Starter
If they can't close out Dallas in Gm5, then the pressure moves to 50/50 for each team. If GS doesn't win Gm6, then they've got history against them big time. As young as they are, I doubt they're naive about any team's chances on the road in a Gm7.
kupman
Starter
This is all true.
On the other hand, it is difficult to beat any team the NBA 3 times in a row and that is what Dallas is looking at. Plus, being the #1 seed and winning as many games as they have still puts alot of pressure on them. So it is not like GS is the only team that will have to fight from tightening up.
Lastly, I believe both Don Nelson and Chris Mullin are pretty good at helping the players "re-frame" the situation so they do not begin to put pressure on themselves.
No matter how it turns-out, it has been a very fun series to watch.
Nazman
Bench
I really liked the post-game w/ Baron. He seems to be very level headed w/ no evidence of being over confident. He is intensely involved w/ the goal of advancing and even Dirk Nowitzki had nothing but positives after the game in describing what a force Baron is.
I see the Warriors advancing in either one way or the other. It's a 7 game series but i don't expect it to go 7. Matchups, destiny, the Baron, Nellie, whatever. The GWS are a force to be reckoned with. After the way they've handled Dallas thusfar and showing grit in coming back last night - you gotta like their chances...
Arena Skeptic
Bench
GS in Five, or Dallas will win series
If GS does not win game 5 in Dallas, the Mavs will win this series. All Dallas needs to do is hold the home court, then gut out a win on the road. Winning game 7 at home would be automatic.
Dallas can win 3 games in a row.
But what I think is most significant here is that GS has beaten Dallas 10 times in their last 12 meetings. "That's not a fluke; that's a trend" goes the cliche.
People were giving Avery a hard time because he tried to adjust to GS in game 1, but Dallas really had no choice. This is the one team in the NBA that gives them these fits. It's really not a coincidence that GS ended Dallas's 17 game winning streak during the regular season.
Here's the deal, though: The Warrior slashers get the "traditional" Dallas centers in early foul trouble, so the Mavs have to substitute. Start Nowitzki at the 4, and the Warrior forwards will just go around him. Start him at 5, and you've stopped Biedrins (and I like Biedrins a LOT, but he's a shot-blocker and rebounder, not a scorer).
What has to happen is for Dirk to learn to play with his back to the basket, and he needs to learn how to do that TODAY.
Just watch, though: If Dallas wins tomorrow, they WILL win this series.
Now, what's the deal with Nelson and Artest getting along so well? How does the Kings brass feel about this? Would GS be a possible destination for Artest in a trade? You must feel that Al and Stephen are telling Ron-Ron how GREAT it is to play in Oakland. Is there a possible trade in the works here?
If GS does not win game 5 in Dallas, the Mavs will win this series. All Dallas needs to do is hold the home court, then gut out a win on the road. Winning game 7 at home would be automatic.
Dallas can win 3 games in a row.
But what I think is most significant here is that GS has beaten Dallas 10 times in their last 12 meetings. "That's not a fluke; that's a trend" goes the cliche.
People were giving Avery a hard time because he tried to adjust to GS in game 1, but Dallas really had no choice. This is the one team in the NBA that gives them these fits. It's really not a coincidence that GS ended Dallas's 17 game winning streak during the regular season.
Here's the deal, though: The Warrior slashers get the "traditional" Dallas centers in early foul trouble, so the Mavs have to substitute. Start Nowitzki at the 4, and the Warrior forwards will just go around him. Start him at 5, and you've stopped Biedrins (and I like Biedrins a LOT, but he's a shot-blocker and rebounder, not a scorer).
What has to happen is for Dirk to learn to play with his back to the basket, and he needs to learn how to do that TODAY.
Just watch, though: If Dallas wins tomorrow, they WILL win this series.
Now, what's the deal with Nelson and Artest getting along so well? How does the Kings brass feel about this? Would GS be a possible destination for Artest in a trade? You must feel that Al and Stephen are telling Ron-Ron how GREAT it is to play in Oakland. Is there a possible trade in the works here?
kupman
Starter
Bold predictions AS (and not unlike what we will be hearing from the "experts" in the next 36 hours). Have you learned nothing from the mistakes of Sir Charles and Grant?
Game 7 would be automatic? Why would they even play the game, then? Because as Chris Berman would say "but that's why they play the game."
Can Dallas win three games in a row? Sure. I think that they have about a 12.5% chance of doing just that......the same chance of me getting heads 3 times in a row.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Game 7s on the road are very tough. VERY tough. Let alone as a #8 vs. a #1. If it gets to that game, Golden State's chances will be slim indeed and this likely just goes down as one of those great first round matchup series they show sometimes on NBA Classics -- like us vs. Utah in '99 or something.
Right now Dallas is reeling, and I really have no feel for how they will respond. The Warriors have to pounce while the opportunity is there. Game 5 will be hard in that building, but if they have the Mavs shaken, maybe. Maybe. Then Game 6 is the must have -- on their home floor where they have been so tough this year, in front of maniacal fans. If they miss it though, then that Game 7 is deadly -- momentum gone, likely some deflation as their best opportunities are past, now its the Mavs fans who are crazy. Be a very very tough game to win.
Right now Dallas is reeling, and I really have no feel for how they will respond. The Warriors have to pounce while the opportunity is there. Game 5 will be hard in that building, but if they have the Mavs shaken, maybe. Maybe. Then Game 6 is the must have -- on their home floor where they have been so tough this year, in front of maniacal fans. If they miss it though, then that Game 7 is deadly -- momentum gone, likely some deflation as their best opportunities are past, now its the Mavs fans who are crazy. Be a very very tough game to win.
kupman
Starter
You guys are really overstating the difficulty of a game 7 on the road.
Would it be tough? - yes;
very tough = overstatement;
a certain loss - hardly.
The road team has won 18 times out of 96 game 7s in NBA playoff history. That is a win about 19% of the time. If the doctor tells me I have a 19% chance of dying in the next month I would be very nervous to say the least.
There has never been a #8 upset a #1 in a 7 game series - so there is no standard for this event. Plus, I think these two teams are very evenly matched with each other. If they played 50 games I think each team would win about 25 times so I do not think seeding matters much here.
I think you guys maybe listening to the "experts" on TV and radio too much.
Elise10
Starter
a funny picture related to this series:
http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2007/04/nba-on-facebook-fun.html
http://thepaintedarea.blogspot.com/2007/04/nba-on-facebook-fun.html
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Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
And I think you really have to go watch more Game 7s -- its a brutal madhouse, and the teams that (rarely) pull those off are normally tough playoff tested squads, not flash int eh pan gimmick squads.
And I myself would take the 19% chance of dying in the next month over a 81% chance, thanks.
SacKings384
Starter
Game 7's are a near impossibility when you are the underdog, had a 3-1 lead, lost 2 straight, and have nobody on your team besides Stephen Jackson (which isn't saying much) that is playoff tested, on the road, vs the best team record in basketball. Yeah, I would say it's pretty much over if it hits game 7.
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PurpleHaze
All-Star
I disagree. "Near impossibility" is to strong. As I said when this thread started, I picked the W's in 7 but now I think it might happen in 6 or even 5. I made the call based on the fact that Golden State had tremendous success against Dallas this past season, matches up extremely well against them, plus has the ultimate secret weapon in former Mavs coach Don Nelson directing their pressure run and gun attack. I am absolutely certain GSW could beat Dallas in a 7th game simply because they have seen them enough and beaten them enough to simply not be intimidated by anything little Avery or zillionaire Cuban could throw at them now.
Stephen Jackson is not the only GSW with playoff experience. Baron Davis has played in some 35 playoff games in his NBA career including a bunch with Charlotte when he was a young pup. At this point with W's up 3-1 the fact that Dallas has best record (in past regular season) means virtually nothing since the playoffs are a whole new season.
And as I said earlier in this thread, Baron and Jason Richardson missed a ton of games which makes the W's 8th seed not all that realistic. Otherwise, they might have been a 7th or 6th seed which means they probably would have never gotten out the first round due to tougher match ups.
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kupman
Starter
Folks, I am just giving you the stats. And no Brick, I do not need to watch more game 7s. I may have even watched more than you. But that is beside the point.
The point is that the road team wins 19% of the time in game 7. So yes, the odds are not in the road team's favor, but to say that winning game 7 on the road is very, very tough or even impossible is just hyperbole. I don't care how loud the fans scream.
A 19% shot at something is not too shabby.
The point is that the road team wins 19% of the time in game 7. So yes, the odds are not in the road team's favor, but to say that winning game 7 on the road is very, very tough or even impossible is just hyperbole. I don't care how loud the fans scream.
A 19% shot at something is not too shabby.
Gargamel
Starter
Happened to the Lakers last year. Gm6 was do or die and their tenacity in that game proved that they knew it. One offensive board by Tim Thomas dropped their confidence down to zero and Gm7 was a formality even before the opening tip. GS needs (Gm5 or) Gm6 or they are morta della.
(and to boot, a couple of Warriors lost their cool in Gm2 when the chips were down and/or refs were homers -- more poise is critical)
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PurpleHaze
All-Star
I still don't buy that the W's can't win a game 7 at Dallas because of the many reasons I said in a post a bit earlier. Yes it will be hard but home teams can tighten up and lose a game 7 just like the Kings lost at home by blowing a ton of free throws down the stretch against the Lakers in Western Conference championship just a few years back. At this point, I think Dallas is running scared, very scared against GSW. All the pressure is on the Mavs in game 5, horrendous pressure if there's a game 6 and yet more pressure cooker in Big D if it gets to a game 7. The Warriors are just loose and happy that the Mavs were served up on a big fat platter like room service home or on the road in these playoffs.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Think about the vast gulf in that sitaution, and you begin to see the problem. It was the two time defending champs, with 3 HOFs (including PJ), supreme arrogance etc., and we were the newer kids on the block, and an injured newer kid to boot.
This will be the #8 seed Golden State Warriors, and could only happen after the Mavs themselves restore their confidence with 2 big victories.
Anything COULD happen, but the odds in that matchup would be very very long.
PurpleHaze
All-Star
Yes, but the odds makers had the Mavs as big-big favorites over the lowly #8 seed W's - even though they were not exactly so obviously lowly as pointed out earlier. I agree that a game 7 win by GSW at Dallas is maybe improbable but far from impossible. Now, it apparently won't matter as the odds makers have finally come to their collective group-think senses because they call it a fairly long shot that Avery can now beat the Master Nelson 3 straight. The odds now point to a Mavs debacle in 6, even odds at 5. If there's a game 7 check the odds as I bet it's even or very close to even. After all, Dirk stupidly said if the Mavs lost game 4 to go down 3-1 they were history. They were rattled big-time when down 2-1 and are now on instant elimination life support. The Mavs MIGHT win game 5 but I like W's chances to win one more game out of three potential shots at it.
kupman
Starter
Yeah, like 1 in 5.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
More like 1 in 10 or 20 given the opponents.
Teams that win that Game 7 are typically of equal stature with the team they beat. Not upstarts depending on a gimick that will have to have been figured out for it to even reach Game 7. Game 7s are a low percentage for even the really good road teams. Now you are the Warriors and have already shot your wad by Game 4...you are pretty much depending on the Mavs choking in a big big way.
kupman
Starter
Well 1 in 10 or 1 in 20 really is not a very long shot, but I digress.
The real issue here is that these two teams are of equal stature when playing each other. If they played 50 times, I think each team would win about 25. If anything, if it is not a 50/50 match-up, you would have to give the edge to the Warriors based upon this year's history of the two teams matching-up.
You can keep going with your theories though, if you like. But they are theories based upon your own perceptions and prejudices at this point and not really anchored with actual numbers.
