Greg Oden?
- Thread starter Nikolizzle
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Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Nothing at the moment. We've got our entire cap tied up in junk contracts. Caps set at $58.7mil, and we are right at it without a single player earning more than $8.2mil (Thornton). That's hard to do. Actually pretty much unprecedented as far as I can recall.
In order to sign Oden to anything that would beat Miami's MLE offer, we would need to dump contracts...somehow. Amnesty date on Salmons is passed.
Fear the Putin
Starter
I think if Oden decides to choose the Kings, we would begin to trade guys for either cash or 2nd round picks, that is of course if we can't make anything work out in trades.
Mojo
G-League
Just not sure if we have enough to pull him in our direction. He's considering Miami and San Antonio because they are title contenders and he's talking with New Orleans because he is familiar with Monty Williams. Not sure how we can get into the conversation unless we are able to offer something more (years and or $) then anyone else can.
It is remarkable how poor our cap management was under the old regime and how little we've done so far to improve it. Add extensions to cousins and potentially Vasquez and we won't have money to improve the team for a couple seasons which leaves trades of our junk for better pieces. Yikes.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
the extra years might do it, but then that runs the real risk of being even more terrible cap management as its just such a risk with him. Its why the team to take that risk might get him. Its also why our new management could be right back to channeling Joe Axelson and his Ralph Sampson deal if it doesn't work.
Agents fight against them like mad, but I'd be slapping performance bonuses/options on there like they were going out of business. Guarantee each additional year if you play in at least 50 games the previous year sort of stuff.
If Miami is offering a mid-level, it can't be more than the TaxPayer MLE, which is $3.183M this year. We'll have either the Room Exception ($2.652M) or the full MLE ($5.150M, if D'Allesandro was able to do something clever with cap holds, though I doubt it). Or we could dump contracts. Really, I'm still waiting for the other shoe to drop, as we've been told that we are supposed to be patient with our offseason moves after Tyreke-for-Vasquez and signing Landry, but there has been nothing but Mbah a Moute since then. I gotta think there's still a shoe waiting to drop, and that shoe might potentially open some more cap space. Right?
Tetsujin
The Game Thread Dude
To be fair, Marc Stein wrote that article so there's actually a good chance the Kings are either frontrunners or not interested at all.
Kingsfan23
All-Star
I'd have to think we're in the mix for leverage purposes
Entity
Hall of Famer
we have to find a way to dump Mr. Hayes before we can do anything. Cousins, Ppat, Hayes, Landry, Thompson, Oden would be really crowded. If we could send Hayes, Ppat, and Jimmer to Utah for Jefferson. Id be down with that. Jefferson is an expiring. we would then amnesty Salmons and get Oden
Vasquez,IT,Mccallum
Thornton,Mclemore
Moute,Jefferson,Outlaw
Thompson,Landry
Cousins,Oden
Vasquez,IT,Mccallum
Thornton,Mclemore
Moute,Jefferson,Outlaw
Thompson,Landry
Cousins,Oden
MassachusettsKingsFan
All-Star
It would take me exactly 2 seconds to jump fully on board with an Oden signing. We all know the risks. He's still an amazing talent that happens to have a skill set we really, really need.
lwc
Starter
Agreed. Also having Cuz means that Oden would not have to start and could comfortably play only the minutes that he would be allowed to. Miami and San Antonio really need a starting Center in the very near future, if not now.
If he just wants to win before his body gives out, he will go Spurs or Heat.
Bricklayer
Don't Make Me Use The Bat
Both the good and the bad of it is that it would seem likely he just wants to get the biggest $$ score he can before his body gives out. If you don't know if you have 1 year or 5years left in you and you never got that big contract score, you would think he can't afford to leave millions on the table. Of course that just amplifies the risk for whoever pays it to him.
You would think this, but the guy seemed quite genuinely bothered by the fact that Portland was paying him millions to sit around and not play.
While he did a dumb thing texting a photo of his naughty bits to someone, I don't recall him getting into any real trouble while he was here and it is possible that he spent/invested his money wisely and is more concerned with rehabbing his image as one of the all time busts than filling up his pockets. He probably made what 15 million + and then endorsements in his 4 years in Portland?
William Blake
Bench
In his interview with Grantland he implies he wasn't exactly a model professional while in Portland. Other than that he came out as a nice guy and as definitely more focused on the basketball side of his comeback rather than the economic one.
Padrino
All-Star
indeed, and that's actually part of the problem, surprisingly enough. greg oden has spent so much time bothered by the fact that he was never able to live up to his draft position that there are now two tremendous factors working against him. first, there's his physical composition, and we don't need to belabor just how much of an issue his injury history is. but secondly, there's his mental composition, and it's worth wondering if greg oden will ever be able to give a team anything at all, even if he miraculously spends the remainder of his career injury-free. he needed to get out of portland, because he was never going to be able survive the gut-wrenching disappointment that comes with disappointing an entire fanbase. so the question becomes "how far those ghosts will chase him?"
is he worth a shot on a cheap, short-term, heavily-insured contract? sure, why not? but when was the last time a team expected anything of a player on a cheap, short-term, heavily-insured contract? it would take a big-time commitment from a team to work greg oden back into the game, back into the belief that he can contribute in the nba. he's a project, and i'm just not sure there's a team out there, winner or loser, who's gonna commit to an oft-injured project who has, more or less, fallen from grace (through no fault of his own), when they can commit to a younger, healthy project with a lengthy career ahead of him, should he pan out?
that said, i really feel for greg oden. i can't imagine what it's like inside of his head on a daily basis. that young man (he's still only 25!!!) must be battling some pretty fierce demons. it's not every day that a 7-footer who had so much promise is considered to be a bigger bust than sam bowie...
Hadlowe
Starter
I recall a lot of deep moans when the Suns signed Grant Hill who had just (sort of) completed a successful comeback season with the Magic to a ~$2 million contract. That was one of the best moves by the suns front office. If we were talking a 3 million contract for Oden with performance bonuses like Bynum's, I would say take a flier on it and spend another million on medical treatments and witch doctors for his knees.
Otherwise, let the Pelicans take the risk. He can wear a suit next to Eric Gordon on that bench.
I haven't read that article since it originally ran, I know it was reposted recently. I'd have to re-read but it just seemed very humanizing and that he fell into the pitfalls that would be expected of someone in his predicament. I don't recall local news reports of him ever getting arrested or even a speeding ticket. He just comes off very genuine.
Padrino
All-Star
grant hill was certainly a medical success story, considering the persistent ankle problem he had to deal with, on top of other nagging injuries, but the fact remains that he's a perimeter player. i'd be much, much more leery of a seven-footer who had major surgery on both of his knees by the age of 21. greg oden's a low-block guy, meant to anchor a defense, and will take serious punishment in the paint as a result. can his body handle it? the chances of oden successfully returning to the game of basketball are not exactly in the same league as grant hill's success story in returning to the game of basketball...
again, i agree that there's not much risk in a cheap, short-term, heavily-insured contract, but i'm also not sure what the point is. it'd be one thing if greg oden had been among the best young centers in the league prior to scrubbing out. unfortunately, he wasn't. he showed a few flashes of potential greatness before his second knee injury. in limited minutes, and across a small sample size of 21 games in 2009, he was rebounding well, and he was starting to establish a defensive presence down low, while hitting a high percentage of shots at the rim. but he wasn't dominant. "potential" was still the operative word...
and now that his body has failed him, i don't really understand what a team would expect of him heading into the '13-'14, three-and-a-half years since he last played in an nba game. he was a developing player before three micro-fracture surgeries doomed his career. he wouldn't be returning to the game as an established talent. even on a cheap contract, he's a major rehabilitation project, and there are other young tall guys out there with defensive potential that you can "take a flier on" who don't also run the risk of collapsing in a heap during their first minutes of nba action...
everybody wants to hope that greg oden can still play in the nba, because he seems like a nice guy, and it's just terrible luck that he hasn't been able to stay on the court. but personally, i think he's a lost cause in a contemporary nba that moves really fast. unless a team intends to sign him for garbage minutes and/or developmental league action, i don't expect he'll stick anywhere...
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I think this is accurate. If he would sign in Sac for 2 million though why the heck not.
And he'd have some really strict rules about playing time and managing back to back nights (like not ever). Baseball fans remember the Joba rules?
That's what appeals to me most about the idea of signing Greg Oden. The franchise is going through it's own kind of rebirth, trying to shake free of a decade of mismanagement and looking to make positive strides forward and the same is true for Greg. His new beginning could coincide with our new beginning. It's a good story and a happy ending for everyone. Then there's also the potential. If he's even half of the player he was before injury than we're looking at one of the best starting front courts of all time. I'm not getting my hopes up that he'll come to Sacramento though. I think at best we're fourth in line after Miami, San Antonio, and New Orleans. Miami and San Antonio because they have stable environments with a track record of success and little pressure on him. New Orleans because they have a solid collection of young talent and a glaring hole at the C position. We'd have to blow him away with substantially more money. The lack of any track record with this current staff is unfortunately not in our favor. Nobody knows what to expect from our franchise right now.
That said, if he does come here he can't be an afterthought for the staff. He's a longshot right now to succeed as a player but if you're going to invest anything at all in his future than you obviously need to devote the necessary resources to make sure he has the best shot possible of being productive for as long as possible. I'd assign him a personal assistant of some kind and track every step of his rehabilitation from the day he's signed to the end of his contract.
That said, if he does come here he can't be an afterthought for the staff. He's a longshot right now to succeed as a player but if you're going to invest anything at all in his future than you obviously need to devote the necessary resources to make sure he has the best shot possible of being productive for as long as possible. I'd assign him a personal assistant of some kind and track every step of his rehabilitation from the day he's signed to the end of his contract.
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Hallama
Starter
I remember when Bill Walton played for the Celtics in the mid-80's. They used him in short stints. As for Oden and his knees, I fear an 82 game schedule with the chance of playoffs is just too brutal for him. I'd love to see him do the Euroleague or something similar just so he can play again with a condensed schedule.
Padrino
All-Star
well, you're assuming it would end happily, and not in another unfortunate recurrence of injury, which is hardly out of the realm of possibility, considering he's a 7-foot, 250 lb center who's had three micro-fracture surgeries across two major knee injuries. a lot of people refer to the potential of greg oden as low-risk, high-reward. i just don't see it. personally, i find it's low-risk, low-reward. what's he gonna give you? 10-15 minutes a night in a brutally long 82-game season? that's what guys like cole aldrich are for...
i can't imagine any head coach would ride oden for extended minutes, not with the fear of injury always lingering overhead. it's one thing if a guy rolls an ankle or bruises a muscle and tries to play through it. but greg oden is a different kind of injury risk. he's one more knee surgery away from never being able to walk again without pain, much less run up and down a basketball court. his is a sad story. i wish things had panned out for him, but they didn't. man, it'd make one helluva tear-jerking hollywood biopic...
that said, i don't fault greg oden for trying his hand at a comeback. and if he's able to stick somewhere for limited minutes, then great. but it's a romantic who believes that oden is gonna provide more for a team than a spot at the end of the bench. i just don't see the point if i'm the kings' gm. i do my diligence and give him a look, because the kings could use additional size, but, ultimately, i pass. the kings need a culture of consistency, and because i wouldn't intend to use oden in anything but a 12th man capacity, i look for a guy to fill that role who doesn't run the risk of never playing basketball again just because i put him on the court...
No, I'm not assuming. I'm hoping. I'm optimistic. If we don't take a chance on him, there's no chance of failure for us but there's also no chance of a happy ending either. Or at least if he does make a comeback of any kind, all the benefit is going to be reaped by some other team. Sure it's a risk, but a calculated one. $3 million a year for 4 years is what we gave Travis Outlaw. It's too bad if you have to write that off as another sunk cost, but it's not crippling the franchise. We're not talking max money or even mid-level money here.
And the high reward scenario is looking more at the long-term. He's going to be at best a 10-15 minute per game player this season. More likely he doesn't play at all and he's a 10-15 minute player in 2014-2015. But you're not signing him for his production this season. You're signing him for what he might give you 3 or 4 years down the road. You're signing him to supervise his recovery, ease him back in, and possibly end up with a quality defensive anchor in a few years without either winning the lottery or breaking the bank on Dwight Howard. Aldrich is going to give you a solid 15-20 minutes of defensive effort every night and that's pretty much it. And this is why the Miami/San Antonio interest is a little puzzling on the surface, because if you're trying to win a championship than you take guaranteed production over risk and uncertainty*. But we're not even remotely there. We're dwindling in lottery hell hoping to nab another franchise player to get us into playoff contention. Why not take a flyer on potential and youth even if the likelihood of success here is admittedly remote?
Again, I think it's more or less a moot point though. We'd have to convince him that his best shot at having an NBA future is signing with Sacramento right now and I don't really see how we can make that argument with a first time owner, GM, and head coach and a roster filled with unproven talent and steady but unspectacular journeymen. Our old training staff doesn't have a stellar reputation either. I don't know anything about the new training staff but if we're smart we've made that a priority.
*I said it was puzzling on the surface, but digging a little deeper you can see what their thinking is. Winning teams make smart investments. This is almost like buying yourself a lottery pick without having to go through a whole season of suck. You're looking at a similar low-cost contract for a young player with potential at a premium position.
But over their brief careers, Oden has put together much more valuable minutes than Aldrich. If (and it is an "if") Oden can be the player he was before for 10 minutes a game, I'd far rather have him give me 10 bench minutes at $2-3M/year than have Aldrich give me the same 10 minutes at $1M/year. It's entirely possible that Oden can't fully recover and that he and Aldrich are interchangeable players at this point, but historically that's not the case. That's why the workout coming up is pretty important. If he looks done, let somebody else take that risk. If he looks to be on his way back, then he's worth the risk even if he'll never be more than a 10-15 minute/game player.
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