Grades v. Raptors 11/12

BLH · Nov 13, 2006

Roman, don't bother being positive on this forum. It's great, and probably the best fan-site ever created, but negativity and the negative sarcasm is ridiculous. Appearantly, beating a bad team this year is no longer a win, and allowing 90 points a game (rank 1/2), and averaging most steals a game in the league is no achievement, its just the opposing teams having bad days.

Oh, and the Kings are 3-0 without Miller, so you guys need to get off the hatoraid. "we are 3-0 only because we played all 3 at home". Jesus Christ, let the excuses go and enjoy your teams success.

chelle · Nov 13, 2006

I'm just glad that we are beating the teams we should beat and not losing to them. It's not always been that way.

Why borrow trouble? We know all of our weaknesses and know that we are going to lose some games - probably more than we want to admit - BUT, lets be happy that we are winning right now.

Sure, the teams we have beaten are not elite teams, but neither are they without any wins of their own.

I am not declaring them the champions, but neither am I condemning them to the lottery. It's too early to tell either way.

I am CHOOSING to be optmistic, with a healthy dose of caution. Let's face it - our record could have been a lot worse at this point already. GO KINGS

nbrans · Nov 13, 2006

Bricklayer said:

The on/off court numbers are skewed by garbage time and small sample size... unless you want to somehow argue that Mo Taylor is better than Kenny and Shareef becuase his on/off court is +9.2.

And... let me get this straight. The Kings win four of five games against some of the best interior players (Ben Wallace, KG, Sheed, Bosh) in the league. And not only are Kenny Thomas and Shareef terrible in your book they are NOT EVEN REMOTELY why the Kings are winning. As in, they deserve no credit whatsoever.

You know, I once heard a story of a kid who really wanted a red fire truck for Christmas. He asked Santa for it, he drew pictures of it. He couldn't sleep Christmas Eve because he just knew he was going to get that red fire truck. He dreamed of red fire trucks at night, and he couldn't think of anything else.

Christmas morning arrived, and the kid ran downstairs. He couldn't even wait for his parents and siblings, he just started ripping into the presents. And finally, when there were no more presents to open, he realized that he did not get that red fire truck. He was devastated.

Now, the kid had some great presents... a bb gun, a gamecube, some nice clothes. But they weren't what he wanted. He wanted that red fire truck.

The kid was so upset that he set fire to the gamecube, threw the bb gun through the window, ripped his new clothes to shreds (and then threw them on the gamecube fire), tore down the Christmas tree, impaled some stuffed animals with glass and smeared his own blood on the mantle. He ended up burning the whole house down. His whole family died in the fire. All because he didn't get a red fire truck.

That kid is you, Brick. That kid is you.

KingKong · Nov 13, 2006

nbrans said:

The kid would rather have a red firetruck than a game cube. Now that's just silly.

nbrans · Nov 13, 2006

KingKong said:

You're telling me! I tried to tell the kid that a gamecube is better, but he just wouldn't listen.

KingKong · Nov 13, 2006

I agree with Chelle though, I'm glad we're beating the teams that we should beat (which wasn't always the case last season). And we'll see how we matchup when the big boys come to town. Until then it is just all speculation which we really don't need to fret over. Enjoy the moment, there's really not much else anybody can do about it.

twocents · Nov 13, 2006

nbrans said:

The on/off court numbers are skewed by garbage time and small sample size... unless you want to somehow argue that Mo Taylor is better than Kenny and Shareef becuase his on/off court is +9.2.

And... let me get this straight. The Kings win four of five games against some of the best interior players (Ben Wallace, KG, Sheed, Bosh) in the league. And not only are Kenny Thomas and Shareef terrible in your book they are NOT EVEN REMOTELY why the Kings are winning. As in, they deserve no credit whatsoever.

You know, I once heard a story of a kid who really wanted a red fire truck for Christmas. He asked Santa for it, he drew pictures of it. He couldn't sleep Christmas Eve because he just knew he was going to get that red fire truck. He dreamed of red fire trucks at night, and he couldn't think of anything else.

Christmas morning arrived, and the kid ran downstairs. He couldn't even wait for his parents and siblings, he just started ripping into the presents. And finally, when there were no more presents to open, he realized that he did not get that red fire truck. He was devastated.

Now, the kid had some great presents... a bb gun, a gamecube, some nice clothes. But they weren't what he wanted. He wanted that red fire truck.

The kid was so upset that he set fire to the gamecube, threw the bb gun through the window, ripped his new clothes to shreds (and then threw them on the gamecube fire), tore down the Christmas tree, impaled some stuffed animals with glass and smeared his own blood on the mantle. He ended up burning the whole house down. His whole family died in the fire. All because he didn't get a red fire truck.

That kid is you, Brick. That kid is you.

well, in the end, he must have gotten to see one red truck at least.

Roman · Nov 13, 2006

KingKong said:

The question is: "Should we really be beating these teams?"

A lot of experts predicted us to be near bottom-feeders and not make the playoffs. Most of us had relatively decent expectations of making the playoffs as a low seed. The minority thought we'd win the division.

I personally thought we'd be a .500 team or just below. I didn't like the way we played last year and I didn't think it changed in preseason.

If you took a poll at the beginning of the season and asked if we'd play above .500 against some of the elite big men in the game with Brad Miller out and Mike Bibby playing hurt. I'd have said - yeah, maybe (but that's because I have more faith in SAR/KT than Miller/??) ... but the majority of us would have said bull honkey.

So, ask yourself again, should we really be any better than the Rap? Than the Wolves? With our roster the way it is and C being covered by SAR/Corliss ... do you really think these are teams we should beat?

Mr. S£im Citrus · Nov 13, 2006

BLH said:

It amuses me to read this, because 1) it speaks to a lack of knowledge of the history of this board's reputation abroad, and 2) the mod staff has recently received complaints from posters who accuse this board of being "too positive," and that nobody is ever allowed to have a dissenting opinion... It's funny how two opposite extremes can perceive the same situation.

It also amuses me that people like Roman and Entity are quick to point to the first six games as evidence of how well the team is doing, and how bright the future is, and how they are just as quick to want to shout down anybody who says otherwise.

I'm still waiting for a cogent explanation from Roman on why six games isn't enough of a sample size to point out what's not good, but yet it's enough to accentuate what is? You can't have it both ways; it's either good enough to judge both, or it's not good enough to judge either.

kupman · Nov 13, 2006

Statistics aside, I am much happier 6 games into this season compared to 6 games into last season. Is it okay that I remain happy? - at least for a little while?

KingKong · Nov 13, 2006

Roman said:

Indeed. I honestly didn't have much faith at the start of the offseason, especially after Bonzi left. I admittedly thought we would be a low to middle- tier team without much hope (which could be still possible). But then I kept hearing good things, especially during the preseason; the strides that Martin was making; a leaner Bibby playing defense (what?); the instensity and defensive philosophy of Musselman rubbing off on the players and thereafter my optimism began to grow. So I suppose if you had asked me during the TDOS if we had a chance to beat the Wolves and Raps, I wouldn't be so sure. However after the preseason and these six games I fully expect us to beat those kinds of teams, although obviously i'm not quite as confident as during the Golden era. This team hasn't even begun to gel on offense yet, however you can see the effort on defense and that remains one of my main sources of optimism.

BawLa · Nov 13, 2006

^^^ Nice post Slim. Totally agree.

Listen folks, people like Brik and Slim are happy about the win just as much as anyone else. And without getting into the logistics of the magnitude of fandom, because it has gotten me in trouble in the past, I just want to say this...

Come back to reality people.

I'm one of the biggest homer-like personalities on this board. That said, even I can recognize that this team is doing well against mediocre teams. And the teams that aren't mediocre played horriblly against us. Is that because of us or because of them? I don't know. We have to see more games before we can accurately answer that question.

For those of you who are up in the clouds and for those of you who are six-feet-under please come back to the middle ground. It is nice and warm here. And of course a win is a win, but you can't say for a minute that a win against a terrible team is the same as a win against a team like San Antonio. If you feel that those types of wins are the same then then you shouldn't be debating the logistics.

And if you want to say that there is not enough raw data to support an argument about how mediocre the teams we have played are, then you can't say how well we are doing with that same raw data.

And I'm glad with the wins we have had, because if we had a worse record than now we would have a much tougher time against tougher teams. At least I can recognize that there are tougher teams out there.

Here's a taste of REALITY: A guy like KG or Bosh would tear us to shreds if they had a better supporting cast around them. Does that mean I don't like what we did against them? NO. It is just realizing the truth.

BLH · Nov 13, 2006

Mr. S£im Citrus said:

Neither of us have claimed that judging by the first 6 games the Kings are a title contender. All we're saying is that we should be happy how the season has turned out so far. The experts had us on the bottom of the leage in the beginning of the season, and to be honest, I didn't argue that looking at the poor offseason we had.

Not only did the Kings earn a very good 4-2 record so far, they did it without Brad Miller, and Mike Bibby who's arguably playing with half the strength in his shooting hand. Things could be much, much worse.

Who cares if the teams we played so far are struggling this season. A win is a win, no matter who you play. A person has to be blind not to notice the improvements this team has made so far.

Now, I believe that the Kings would be much better off with Brad getting off the bench, since Kenny and Reef give the Kings speed and more defense.

Now go ahead and take a look at Dallas and the Suns and tell me if we got it good.

The Kings at the moment are winning games with team effort, and that's what the fans wanted for the past few years. Now we finally have what we wanted and we still criticize the players for this and that.

What happened to 'We believe'?

BawLa · Nov 13, 2006

I think there is this over-inflated sense of value because most people on this board didn't have high expectations coming into the start of the season. I on the other hand, expected Muss to get this team ready to beat up on crap teams. And I am excited to see how we will fare against championship calibur teams. But comon people, everything in the NBA is out-of-whack right now. Are we really to believe that Dallas is a bottom 5 team?

Learn to take things with a grain of salt.

nbrans · Nov 13, 2006

BawLa said:

I think you make good points -- don't get too up, don't get too down. Live and let live. There's room for both optimists and pessimists under the tent. Definitely something I think most of us would agree with.

I'm just all for giving credit where due, and I don't believe some of the self-described realists are willing to give sufficient credit to the makeshift frontcourt (to say nothing of the front office) for their role in our success. Like them or not, Kenny and Shareef have played well this season. Wouldn't hurt to tip the hat.

Sure, we haven't played a contender yet. This team is still not a contender yet (at least I don't think it is -- that probably hinges on whether Kevin Martin becomes a superstar this season). But hey, kudos to Kenny, Shareef, Musselman, Petrie, Martin, the trainers, the ushers, the janitors and everyone else in Kingsland for a good start.

Roman · Nov 13, 2006

Mr. S£im Citrus said:

I'm glad I amuse you, I guess it's a "positive" albeit extremely condescending thing to say. I've never once thought the future is extremely bright. In no post have you seen this from me, so placing me in that light is wrong - any way you slice it. I said that I believe we're doing some of the better things and our style of basktball is changing and that's a plus. I think we can get better and I think we will, but I've remained quite openly mildly optimistic ... if not cautiously optimisitic.

As for why 6 games is a decent enough sample size to point out the good is because I've not used statistics. If you're using statistics, then this number of games is not indicative of anything except possible slumps (in comparison to historical data) and possible streaks (in comparison to historical data). Nothing more, nothing less. In my analysis of what I think is good, I've used general observations and basketball analysis outside of stats.

For instance, I would not debate that SAR/KT is small. That's an observation and a fact. What I might debate is whether or not they can hold up against the majority of the teams in this league based on the activity I've seen on the court. That's not a statistical analysis ... it's an observation of the style of play. We're a gritty team and we're playing lanes, which cuts down on the post ability of players. We're making the right reads and rotations ... which is more than we did last year. KT/SAR switch quite well with each other and their both relatively quick at it this year. These are observations and rely naught on statistical inference.

So, yes, I can have it both ways. 6 games is a short enough time to make inferences based on style of play, but it is not a long enough time to examine the statistical implications of it.

At the beginning of the year, I was vehemently opposed to the "jack-a-shot" offense. They were resulting in losses, but what worried me wasn't the current losses but the fact that historically teams that rely on jumpshots and don't try to get easy baskets have early exits from the playoffs. We've moved away from this and based on that, I have more confidence.

Another example is SAR. Statistically, he's shooting a poor percentage. Based on historical figures, one can say he's in a slump. His turnovers are high for him (and he's prone to have a few) and this leads me to make the assumption that he's not feeling confident. The difference is that the comparison I'm making is his stats vs a historical norm.

I'm not comparing 6 games to 6 games. That type of analysis is poo-poo kaa-kaa.

Statistics 101 over.

Roman · Nov 13, 2006

nbrans said:

That's all I'm saying.

KT/SAR aren't getting the credit they deserve for the work they are doing, considering they are short and aren't the perfect frontcourt in any sense.

GoGoGadget · Nov 13, 2006

nbrans said:

Yes.

Because, of course, throwing a hissy fit that results in the firey destruction of both your home and family is EXACTLY the same as failing to turn the appropriate number of cartwheels when your good-but-not-great home team wins three home games that they absolutely should have won.

The level of zealotry that has developed here over the last few months is astounding to me.

Roman · Nov 13, 2006

GoGoGadget said:

That's what I posted elsewhere - are they really ABSOLUTELY SHOULD have won games?

Did you go into the game thinking - this is a blowout and KG isn't going to go career on us? I did, but that's because I always liked KT/SAR upfront, but I'll bet that's not the opinion you held. (well, maybe I didn't think it'd be a blowout ... )

Our offense has opened up since Brad Miller has gone down, the lane is less cluttered and we're starting to go after easy points. How much is because of time and how much is Brad Miller, I dunno. But undeniably, we're better than most people anticipated without BM and no credit is being given (by some vocal members) to the makeshift KT/SAR frontcourt (that according to some people is so atrociously bad that we're just lucky).

I don't think anyone is arguing the "cartwheels" concept, but rather give credit where it's due. If you really thought that beating the Bulls (a team most consider an up-and-comer), the Twolves (a team that can win on any night) and the Pistons (who are still deadly with Billups, Prince and Wallace) were simply easy things to do and to be expected than I guess you shouldn't feel anything either way.

nbrans · Nov 13, 2006

GoGoGadget said:

I mean, of course I meant that story literally (it was, after all, completely factual) and it was not in any way meant to be a light-hearted joke for the Christmas season. I guess people have an aversion to the truth around here. If I'm a zealot for pointing out that sometimes kids trash their Christmas presents, start fires in their living rooms because they didn't get a fire truck and burn their houses down, then yeah. I guess the shoe fits.

uolj · Nov 13, 2006

The most amusing thing about these discussions is the fact that many of the same people being derided for being pessimistic were labeled as overly-optimistic just a couple years ago.

My guess is that the posters didn't change. The reality did.

I will say this, though. I'd much rather have the over-the-top homerism around now than the constant negativity of a couple years ago. It's easier to take.

GoGoGadget · Nov 13, 2006

uolj said:

I've noticed that, as well.

BawLa · Nov 13, 2006

Roman said:

Wow, just wow.

1. If you are being cautiously optimistic I can't see it. More like dilusionally optimistic.

2. 6 games is only enough to make GENERAL OBSERVATIONS. We haven't played enough teams to have a decent sample of which to judge -- statistically or even for your general observations.

3. I won't knock your observations because they are yours, but to argue over and over that your "stlye of play" observations are concrete and will hold up against all teams is just silly. We just don't know yet.

4. You want to say statistics are worthless right now and then you start using SAR's statistics to make an assumption. Hmm. Little suspect to me.

-My dad always told me the true meaining of assume...To make an *** out of u and me.

You want to use 6 games worth of statistics to say that SAR is not confident right now. I think you need to wait for more stats to make an assesment of SAR. Every player goes through ups and downs throughout the course of a season. Like Mike Bibby said last year: "Sometimes they (the shots) fall and sometimes they don't. I'm going to keep shooting." 6 games is a small enough sample to be on a down slump. If this continued for say 20 games, then it would be safer to say that he is lacking confidence. In fact I think that confidence has nothing to do with it right now because if he weren't confident, then he wouldn't keep shooting.

Before the season started, most teams thought that they could waltz into our paint. Last year that was the truth. Now we are at least trying to make it tough on them. It will take about 10-20 games before the league will start adjusting to us and when they do we could get pounded. We could also continue as we have this year. But until we know, it is just speculation. And I'm going to speculate that KT starts to look more like KT than KG. You can believe whatever you want. Does that mean I don't like what I've seen? NO.

Listen bub. If you want to have your cake and eat it too then fine, but no one will be at your party.

/statistics 201.

KingKong · Nov 13, 2006

uolj said:

Is that some type of subliminal avatar you have there uolj. From some strange reason it's kinda trippy.

uolj · Nov 13, 2006

KingKong said:

No, just wanted to have a picture of my kid here without making a big deal of it, so I superimposed her head on to my original avatar.

KingKong · Nov 13, 2006

uolj said:

No offense, but for some reason it looks like something I experimented with in my college days. Maybe that's why I think the head seems to be moving.

Nice one though.

SCKingsfan · Nov 13, 2006

I agree it doesn't make sense to use statistics to make sweeping generalizations at this point. I'll use my eyes b/c I've seen every game. the kings are playing ridiculously better defense, no question. when you play good defense, you can afford to have mediocre shooting nights. you can win by scoring less than 90 points. that almost never happened last year. can they do this against upper tier teams? not sure, but looking at their better rotations, their intensity, and the smothering nature of their D (remember times last year when we just let people walk down the lane last year while everyone looked at each other like the other did something wrong?), I don;t think it's "blindly optimistic" to think we will compete well with them. When we went on that run following Artest's arrival - I had thought that losing Wells meant there was no way we could continue that level. But with Martin stepping up and better team D, i think it would be foolish to ***-u-me that we aren't positioned for playoffs. there's still lots of questions, but it doesn't take stats to figure out we are likely to do better (barring unforeseen injuries or high drama) than we did last year when we made the playoffs.

Roman · Nov 13, 2006

BawLa said:

Since this was the most thought out point in the message, I figured I'd give it it's own quote box.

Reading comprehension is your friend.

Let me help:
1) "I'm not jumping for joy yet, but I am seeing promise."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392238&postcount=41
2) "I'm not jumping for 50 wins, but I'm seeing improvement and heart from ALL the players and that makes me smile. "
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392238&postcount=41
3) "Are we a great among the greats? I don't think so. But, we're a great among the decent and that's a start."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392242&postcount=45
4) "IF we continue to win it'll bring discussion. That's a big IF."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392251&postcount=51
5) "Right now, I like our frontcourt. I think I'll like it more in a week when SAR gets his sea legs and some confidence. Right now, SAR is our weakpoint up front and like the coach says: "He's the known commodity." His game will come."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392260&postcount=55
6) "The few teams that have dominant centers will dominate this team down low. With or without Brad Miller. "
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392265&postcount=59
7) "I'm not blindly optimistic, I'm cautiously optimistic."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392271&postcount=64
8) "I don't believe they "walk on water" either, but I think they are doing a better job than Brad Miller did when he was on the floor."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392283&postcount=73
9) "Things have been in our favor, but that's a good thing. Basketball has a massive mental component - and winning breeds confidence which breeds more wins."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392308&postcount=86
10) "Either you've got to be happy we're getting the lowhanging fruit or just want to look for something to complain about"
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392308&postcount=86
11) "As for being a "blind optimist", I'm anything but. I've said repeatedly that I'm cautiously optimistic and have seen movement in the direction I feel is good (and that doesn't include just winning)."
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392332&postcount=90
12) "The question is: "Should we really be beating these teams?""
http://www.kingsfans.com/forums/showpost.php?p=392350&postcount=98

In no post have I been, as you put it, 'dilusionally optimistic'. Either you just came in and made a comment that you pulled out of this thing called 'your heiny' or you're just being ignorant. Take your pick.

Unfortunately, that's not true.

While I've constantly qualified my statements with "if this continues", I believe one with basketball acumen can make general assessments on the style of play. One can watch a game and see the style of play without knowing thing one about stats or what the current stats are. In fact, I think stats can lead one to a poor decision if you don't use your eyes and basketball knowledge. (ie. shooting a low percentage in games where the post is used, so therefore we abandon it as an option)

If you cannot see the how we're playing a less selfish style of basketball and concentrating more on easy baskets (especially in the 3rd & 4th QTRs) than we did at the beginning of the year (and all of last year) and in preseason, I can't help you, man.

Fortunately I can see these things and I can see the team starting to run plays and focus their offense more and more in the post. While it'll never be our dominant option, it has become an option.

Again, the caveat is always - "if this continues". At the beginning I said "if we continue to jack shots without regard to offense and play one-on-one we won't win games" (and we didn't). Right now I say, "if we continue to work our offense the way we have and focus on defense, I think we'll find some success". That's it. That's all. Want to read more into that statement, be my guest.

Please point out where I said it was the only style and that the way I prefer basketball is concrete? I've said historical analysis has shown that teams that rely solely on jumpers don't have sustained success, but that's about all.

You're reading too much into my posts, which is fine ... but don't blast me with a fallacy that you've decided to create in your mind.

Again, if you were reading my post with comprehension of a first grader, you'd have seen that I said that the only thing stats can prove at this point is slumps and peaks. They may or may not be indicators of future performance, but at this point the size is too small to be a true trend towards a new status quo line.

What I said is you can use a players stats to look back on historical numbers and make some sort of guesstimate on what to expect in the future. But, comparing such a small sample size to another small sample size is bad stats.

Especially when we've been involved in the matchups. Comparing W/L on teams we beat is unfair because we're 6 games in. Our game with them was 1/6th of their entire population of data.

If you fail to see the difference than I apologize.

I'd go ahead and tell you what I think of your Dad's quote and trying to use it on me ... but I like my posting priviledges.

Yes, this is called a slump (please refer above).

I also am saying confidence with SAR because of observations. He's a shell of the player he was 2 years ago. Sadly enough, SAR looked more aggressive in Portland. He was certainly a completely different player 2 1/2 years ago in Atlanta.

I'd say that his confidence and drive are down, but it's a guess. Never did I state it as fact.

Unless the goal is to get himself out of a slump. Good players, players with talent will attack until they find their rythm. It's why it's a slump rather than a new trendline for a player.

Possible. Where did I say it isn't debateable?

Okay, Wolverine.

It'd be great if I honestly believed you could pass entry level stats.

A lot of what I said above was said tongue firmly planted in cheek, but you were quite vicious in your post and I can't quite figure out why.

G_M · Nov 13, 2006

WOW!

Interesting thread debating the relative "success" of the team. I suppose things will get really ugly if there's a losing streak this season.

Rookie · Nov 13, 2006

Woohooo 4-2. Better than I thought. Go Kings!!!!

Let the people who wants to cheer, cheer.

Let the doubter doubt.

Let the hopeful hope.

After all we did win.

Grades v. Raptors 11/12

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