Grade the Kings draft

[sactowndog]

I really don't know how the draft process works but if the Kings had James as say the 35th best prospect in the draft and their pick comes up at 40, does it not make sense to take him rather than risk another team snagging him? Teams can't know for sure what other teams big boards look like. At the top of the draft it's generally a bit more clear as to what teams might do but things get a bit more muddled as the night goes on.

If you are 100% risk adverse sure. But just like in business or investing being 100% risk adverse is generally a poor strategy. Even lower in the draft teams do or should know who has worked out where and the possibility of being drafted.

 

[VF21]

...All these ‘projections’ are coming from outside sources and not the teams themselves. None of these front offices are going to share their draft boards, strategies, and long term goals heading into a draft. Whatever info is leaked to the media, analysts, insiders or whatever you want to call them are often designed to mislead or are far from complete.

At the end of the day, these front offices do their own scouting and player evaluations and make their own decisions. They don’t care what analysts not employed by them believe they should do. Hence why Golden State took Jordan Peele at 28 not caring where draft analysts and supposed insiders projected him to go. Because all it takes is one team sharing your interest in said player and then he gets swooped.

Smart organizations understand that and do what they gotta do to ensure they get the players they covet. Whether it works out or not...

QFT.

 

[VF21]

I gave the draft an A not because of the picks but because Vlade did the opposite of what everybody wanted which gave us something to talk about in TDOS. Good job keeping this board active!

Me too!

 

[dude12]

I give it an F. Not because I think we could have landed exceptional talent at any of the picks. Just because even if Justin James turns out to be as good as lets say, Danuel House of the Rockets, well it won't really matter because he's blocked by Buddy and Bogi.

The odds were in favor of picking someone more highly touted at 40 and nabbing James later on. The smart thing would have been to draft for areas of need since there isn't a whole lot of difference in the prospects at this point in the draft. If you draft someone like say Admiral Schofield and he turns out to be a solid backup, you've just gotten good value out of an invaluable asset. Instead you've kind of pigeon holed yourself into a situation where not only did you not fill any holes but even if the guy develops a bit, he's going to be blocked by players that are surely going to be better than him. So you're forced to either do nothing with him or play him out of position, making him even less valuable.

All in all, James and Guy are more than likely wasted picks and it doesn't have as much to do with whether they develop or not but solely based on their place on the team. Lets say Guy turns into a poor mans JJ Redick, well now you're going to have to have him out there in very specific situations defensively. The rest of the NBA is going toward versatile switchable players with size and the Kings are going for shooting without caring too much about how difficult it is to form a team around guys like him because he's so small and doesn't play the smallest position on the court.

There is a really good article in The Athletic on why he drafted these guys irregardless of positional need. In a nutshell, he drafted these guys as the best fits and best talent within their culture and what they want to do on the floor.

It seems he sees James as a fit with Bogi and probably Giles as another ball handler where Giles can run the offense through him......just speculating here......also sees Guy as a SG at least right now. Of course, it’s up to these guys to prove they belong. Make no mistake though, there is absolutely a plan in place.

 

[dude12]

It's not like Vlade knows how to pile up assets, the fact that after 3 years of rebuild we don't have an extra first round pick on hand and instead gave out one is still mind boggling.

My memory’s may be hazy, and I’m going off on recall here, but Vlade turned the draft pick in the year of the Papa pick into multiple assets including Bogi. Then he traded, next year’s pick at 10 into 2 later picks which became JJ and Giles. JJ and Zbo then became Barnes. Seems he knows how to turn assets into multiple assets. For this draft, he picked the guys he wanted and in fact did move down slightly and got a later pick and cash and still got his pick in Guy.

 

[jcassio]

I gave the draft a B, and that's a better grade than I would have given on draft night. I had not expected us to pursue three guards, even if all are 2nd round picks and even if one of them is - possibly - a flyer.
But after thinking about it, I think our draft picks were not bad at all. It smells like the three they picked were on their list, along with who knows how many others who were picked ahead of us.
So this summer and possibly in training camp, we'll have (among others) James and Guy, who are both guards, but are very different types of players. James looks like a possible 1-3 combo player - if he can get stronger, and if he survives. Guy seems like a Seth Curry type player - if he can get stronger, and if he survives. Marinkovic should stay in Europe for another season (at least). But he has 2/3 potential - if he develops his body as well as his game.
Sure, there were players on my list that we passed on. That's annoying. But that's also to be expected. Except for the know-it-alls who always come to believe they see all and know best.

 

[sactowndog]

They have the delusion that because they have the internet, they know what every NBA insider thinks - and being wrong about that blows their circuits (since, demonstrably, at least one NBA insider liked James at 40 - this is fact not conjecture). They are willing to assign bumpkin status to Vlade Divac in a way that has been and is completely insulting. They would rather believe the Kings perpetually have fools in charge than process the fact that there is something they didn’t know.

This is just a dumb comment. You and 85 act like it’s a black box and it is far from one.

Teams know who was requested to go to the combine. Teams know what players are working out for whom. Teams talk to agents all the time who provide significant amounts of intelligence. I told you last year the Kings were going to draft Bagley a week before the draft. Not because I searched the Internet harder. But because NBA teams already had a good idea what would happen. Can you say with absolute certainty James would not have been drafted, of course not but it was a very low probability.

 

[SacTownKid]

Did he not maximize the 8 spot in the draft by the trade alone. Given the week draft as he got the better asset.

In the Papa G draft? I had no problems with moving down then. The Kings were clearly on the outside looking in on a 6 player lottery. I really wanted Buddy but they eventually got him I guess. All in all I don't think you can look back at drafts and cherry pick talent that ended up better either since where a players lands has as much to do with their success as it does the teams. I do think when you have no way to fit who you did get it just increases, if not guarantees their inability to succeed. People made fun of the Kings 5 center possibilities back then and surprise, it didn't work out. The only moves I've seen Vlade make that made sense on paper were his fallback options last summer in Yogi and Bjelica. Amazing how it's also the first time the team made some degree of sense on the floor too. These things are not mutually exclusive.

 

[SacTownKid]

This is just a dumb comment. You and 85 act like it’s a black box and it is far from one.

Teams know who was requested to go to the combine. Teams know what players are working out for whom. Teams talk to agents all the time who provide significant amounts of intelligence. I told you last year the Kings were going to draft Bagley a week before the draft. Not because I searched the Internet harder. But because NBA teams already had a good idea what would happen. Can you say with absolute certainty James would not have been drafted, of course not but it was a very low probability.

What you can say is that Vlade has a horde of potentially useless futures 2nd rounders waiting in the wings collecting dust so even if there was a chance somebody isn't there, trading back in would have been possible.

 

[dude12]

You clearly get it. Why others aren’t able to do the same is puzzling to me. It really is.

Those claiming to know what other teams would have done or how they viewed James — or that he would have chose the KINGS as his FA destination had he not been drafted — might as well also claim that they know what the Powerball numbers are going to be before the next drawing.

I read another article in the Athletic, where Jason Jones interviewed James. James said he worked out for 11 teams and he personally thought that 4 of his workouts were extremely good including his workout with Sacramento. Said Sacramento was one of the teams that took the time to ask him questions and try to get to know him.

Seems to me the Kings had to have known he worked out for 11 teams and after their workout with him and his showing in Portsmouth including his testing results AND the Kings believe he can play both guard spots in the NBA (if he can play some PG at 6’7”, hell yes) AND the Kings feel like he fits this culture......why risk not taking him at 40 if he is your guy. Makes no sense to pass at that point.

Also read that the Warriors sold pick 58 to Utah for cash. Seems like a common move, no?

 

[KingsFanSince85]

I read another article in the Athletic, where Jason Jones interviewed James. James said he worked out for 11 teams and he personally thought that 4 of his workouts were extremely good including his workout with Sacramento. Said Sacramento was one of the teams that took the time to ask him questions and try to get to know him.

Seems to me the Kings had to have known he worked out for 11 teams and after their workout with him and his showing in Portsmouth including his testing results AND the Kings believe he can play both guard spots in the NBA (if he can play some PG at 6’7”, hell yes) AND the Kings feel like he fits this culture......why risk not taking him at 40 if he is your guy. Makes no sense to pass at that point.

Also read that the Warriors sold pick 58 to Utah for cash. Seems like a common move, no?

Good info. Also great to hear the KINGS really went into depth with him and were more thorough than other teams. That’s an encouraging sign IMO.

 

[The_Jamal]

Well I'm sorry if you really didnt know this but trying to understand where different prospects would be drafted is a very basic thing that probably every franchise does in all the sports. If you dont believe me you can listen Brian Winsdhorst podcast, episode "where does the draft break" where a former gm Bobby Marks says that you certainly gather information on what other teams might do and you write these things on your big board.

What matters to me is that it seems like we didnt maximize the value of our assets. We had three picks and used the best of them on a guy like that was projected to go undrafted. It seems like he could've been available with a later pick so in order to maximize our assets, we could've picked him later AND get another early 2nd round prospect. No one definetly knows he wouldnt have been picked from 41-46 but based on the things we know its fair to say that its unlikely.

Other thing I dont like is talking about these 2nd round draft picks like they dont matter. They are assets, they have value and they give you a chance to find an extremely cheap contributor to your rotation and in every draft there are those guys available in the 2nd. Just maximize your chances to get one. They can be used to trade up, trading for a player ect so its very important that you maximize their value.

Disagreeing with the teams use of 2nd rounders is definetly not a "gross overreaction". When your team drafts a projected undrafted guy with their best pick and trades down their second pick so that the owner can get money, that should be critisized. Thats not the best use of these assets and it shouldnt be just blindly defended. Questioning that startegy is certainly warranted.

This thread is honestly really interesting. There's a small contingent here who really understands asset management, risk tolerance, maximizing your opportunities, process over results and why the Kings utterly failed in all those aspects. And then everyone else who couldn't care less about those principles and just trusts Vlade did the right thing because "he must know more" than we do.

 

[whozit]

This thread is honestly really interesting. There's a small contingent here who really understands asset management, risk tolerance, maximizing your opportunities, process over results and why the Kings utterly failed in all those aspects. And then everyone else who couldn't care less about those principles and just trusts Vlade did the right thing because "he must know more" than we do.

That's a flattering take. A small segment of geniuses and then the shallow rest. I am not seeing a lot saying "trust in Vlade" in this thread. I've seen push back on people posting near absolute if these players would've been choosen or not. Personally I don't know either way.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

That's a flattering take. A small segment of geniuses and then the shallow rest. I am not seeing a lot saying "trust in Vlade" in this thread. I've seen push back on people posting near absolute if these players would've been choosen or not. Personally I don't know either way.

Fantastic summary.

Occam's razor. The simplest explanation tends to be true.

 

[burekijogurt]

This thread is honestly really interesting. There's a small contingent here who really understands asset management, risk tolerance, maximizing your opportunities, process over results and why the Kings utterly failed in all those aspects. And then everyone else who couldn't care less about those principles and just trusts Vlade did the right thing because "he must know more" than we do.

As far as process goes the Kings worked out over a 100 players and took the one they liked the most with their highest pick. Not a game theory masterpiece, but a valid way to go about it nevertheless....

 

[KingsFanSince85]

This thread is honestly really interesting. There's a small contingent here who really understands asset management, risk tolerance, maximizing your opportunities, process over results and why the Kings utterly failed in all those aspects. And then everyone else who couldn't care less about those principles and just trusts Vlade did the right thing because "he must know more" than we do.

It is interesting, indeed

There's a small contingent that suffer from a Lavar Ball-esque delusion of grandeur wherein their perceived knowledge and abilities greatly exceed reality. Like all narcissistic personality types, it's always easier and far more preferrable to mock others for not seeing their greatness than it is to admit that it really doesn't exist.

As you were.

 

[allrightythen]

This thread is honestly really interesting. There's a small contingent here who really understands asset management, risk tolerance, maximizing your opportunities, process over results and why the Kings utterly failed in all those aspects. And then everyone else who couldn't care less about those principles and just trusts Vlade did the right thing because "he must know more" than we do.

Lol. This is just a veiled insult aimed at those who don't agree with you. Why don't you just come out and call them all morons.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

As far as process goes the Kings worked out over a 100 players and took the one they liked the most with their highest pick. Not a game theory masterpiece, but a valid way to go about it nevertheless....

But hey, the end result didn't jive with what the self-anointed experts would have done so the only reasonable explanation for it is that the KINGS went about it all wrong.

Makes sense, right?

 

[Gary]

F - We really did nothing to address anything. I know they are second round picks, but come on.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Lol. This is just a veiled insult aimed at those who don't agree with you. Why don't you just come out and call them all morons.

EH. I'm done trying to talk sense to these people. I don't disparage their opinions at all. They are entitled to them just like everyone else. In some cases, I don't even really disagree.

I really only take issue with 2 tactics regarding any opinion. Making blanket statements without providing solid reasoning or factual evidence to support it and/or positioning hearsay & supposition as truth or fact. IMO, there's far too much of that going around in these draft threads.

If these people were a bit more humble in stating that 'it's their gut feeling' that A, B and C might be true because of X, Y, and Z, I could accept and take that in stride despite not agreeing with it at all. But when it's pushed and positioned as truth then defended with contempt & an aura of superiority when someone has the audacity to offer up a challenge -- that's where I find it difficult not to respond.

I really need to work on that.

 

[jcassio]

This thread is honestly really interesting. There's a small contingent here who really understands asset management, risk tolerance, maximizing your opportunities, process over results and why the Kings utterly failed in all those aspects. And then everyone else who couldn't care less about those principles and just trusts Vlade did the right thing because "he must know more" than we do.

Wrong. The point I have been trying to make is that your "asset managers" are foolish in thinking that they see the complete picture when few, if any, do. And reading up the internet doesn't give you knowledge; it gives you information - some good and some bad and some intentionally misleading. I don't put my faith in Vlade. He's completely capable of making mistakes of all proportions. But Kingsfans posters who always know and see the "facts" that support their biases are... fallible.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

Wrong. The point I have been trying to make is that your "asset managers" are foolish in thinking that they see the complete picture when few, if any, do. And reading up the internet doesn't give you knowledge; it gives you information - some good and some bad and some intentionally misleading. I don't put my faith in Vlade. He's completely capable of making mistakes of all proportions. But Kingsfans posters who always know and see the "facts" that support their biases are... fallible.

But you, sir, clearly just don't understand asset management.

In all seriousness, I think you've captured the essence of it completely. Of course, that's just my biased opinion.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

FWIW, I just realized that I never got around to providing a draft grade.

I always find it difficult to evaluate drafts because it usually takes a couple seasons to really know anything about a player. But just based on where they were drafting and that they seemingly got the players they wanted (as far as any of us know), I'd at least give it a firm 'C'. Not bad, not great -- yet. We just don't know enough.

We'll see how things progress with these players from SL through camp then throughout their rookie season. Even if one or more of these guys don't crack the roster and/or are cut doesn't mean it was a bad draft. As has been stated numerous times by many, 2nd rounders are long shots as it is. And with the KINGS having a lot more talent now than in recent years, it's that much harder for a player to stick.

Now if any of these 2nd rounders stick and manage to make a positive contribution -- it clearly becomes an 'A' draft.

 

[SLAB]

June 24th update - I still wish we had Bol Bol.

 

[VF21]

After reading a lot of your comments, I think I've come to a conclusion. I believe Vlade was drafting to strengthen the bench. I don't believe he was looking for starter material as I believe he's already got that plotted out (pending success in FA acquisitions). From all indications, our 3 draft picks are character players who will mesh well and add to the overall strength of the team. Is that what that they should have done? I know a lot of you will disagree, but I think we're seeing a different approach to this whole team building concept. Will it succeed? Time will tell - but until then we've certainly got a lot to talk about.

 

[Iced Espresso]

June 24th update - I still wish we had Bol Bol.

Or if not that a second or two for trading back in future drafts.

But we's got cash consids...

 

[Iced Espresso]

But you, sir, clearly just don't understand asset management.

In all seriousness, I think you've captured the essence of it completely. Of course, that's just my biased opinion.

The owner getting cash considerations and putting on a King's pride shirt are worth more than future seconds, you must of fell in love with some blogger or know more than Vlade to even suggest otherwise!

 

[KingsFanSince85]

The owner getting cash considerations and putting on a King's pride shirt are worth more than future seconds, you must of fell in love with some blogger or know more than Vlade to even suggest otherwise!

I think you've got me confused with someone else. What do you believe I suggested? Or is sarcasm going over my head??

 

[Iced Espresso]

I think you've got me confused with someone else. What do you believe I suggested? Or is sarcasm going over my head??

Sarcasm.

I have had a lot to drink tonight.

I'll check the thread tomorrow.

 

[KingsFanSince85]

June 24th update - I still wish we had Bol Bol.

At the time he was falling further and further down, I did too. I was actually miffed when he fell to GSW, as I thought they might take him since they can afford the risk. But once they passed (really should have known they'd go with a shooter) and he continued to fall, I was ok with the KINGS bypassing too.

I mean, if the KINGS end up being wrong about him -- they'll be far from the only ones in that boat. I trust that all of these teams had good reason (for them) to go in another direction.