It's a .500 roster as currently constructed, especially with Joerger at the helm. But that's still likely 5-8 games out of the playoffs once everyone in the West gets healthy again.
We'll see.
I think you can pencil in the Spurs, Warriors and Clippers for the playoffs. Even substantial injuries shouldn't stop those three from at least cracking the playoffs and if healthy they are likely the top 3 seeds.
After that?
Oklahoma City
Two seasons ago Durant missed 2/3 of the season and the Thunder missed the playoffs. But they did win 45 games that year and I'd argue the supporting cast is stronger and deeper now. So I'd expect OKC to still make the playoffs. But that's assuming Westbrook isn't traded. If he is, all bets are off.
Portland
We can assume that the Trailblazers continue their upward assent. They will lose Crabbe but gain Turner. That leaves them a worse shooting team but Turner brings a lot of other things to the table. This will be the year that we likely see how real the Blazers are as a team. They certainly looked good to me giving the Warriors a battle in the playoffs.
Dallas
Well some people predicted that this summer Dirk would team up with Curry, Barnes, Bogut etc but I don't think they thought it would be in Dallas. Or with the other Curry. Williams, Matthews, Barnes, Nowitzki & Bogut looks like a strong starting five. But lots of creaky joints there other than Harrison. Hard to count out a Rick Carlisle team so I think they've got a good shot at the playoffs, but
Memphis
They kept Conley and filled their SF hole with Chandler Parsons. If everyone stays healthy they should be a playoff team. But the questions of health, of possible decline of their main grindhouse guys (Allen, Randolph, Gasol) and of how good a first time head coach Fizdale will be are legit ones to ask. Personally I think Fizdale will do well, given his personality and pedigree but we'll see
Houston
Who knows with the Rockets? They chucked a bunch of threes, played little defense and then thought, we should hire D'Antoni and replace Dwight Howard & Terrence Jones with Ryan Anderson and Eric Gordon. The scoreboard at Rockets games will likely look like a pinball machine. Clint Capela could step in and give the Rockets 90% of what Howard did (his FTs are even worse though) and the Rockets could use their extra firepower to show how they nearly went to the finals two seasons ago. Or their lack of defense and rebounding could find them on the outside looking in. I honestly don't know which is more likely.
Utah
The Jazz added George Hill and Joe Johnson and will get back a healthy Dante Exum. I think they are more likely than most teams to make the playoffs this year. They play great defense with Gobert as the anchor and getting back Exum to harass opposing PGs will be big. Johnson should help take some of the scoring load off Hayward and if Boris Diaw gives them anything it will be a bonus. If healthy they are the team I'd expect to have the biggest rise next season. Their bench could be an issue, especially given the age & injury history of most of their starters.
New Orleans
Diallo was a nice gamble in the draft and while they paid more than I expected, Solomon Hill and E'Twaun Moore were two guys that I thought could be gems in free agency. But their roster is still unbalanced, injuries continue to be a concern and I don't like Tyreke and J'rue as a backcourt duo. I think they'll want Hield in the lineup sooner than later which means Evans needs to be dealt, something I think will happen. but the Pelicans also have to count on Solomon Hill being a real player and not a flash in the pan. Murky playoff outlook here.
Minnesota
The Wolves have a ton of talent but it will take them some time to adjust to a new coach, especially one as demanding as Thibs and the more Dunn plays the more he'll hurt them. I think he'll be a good to great PG in time but his rookie year he'll be like most talented rookie PGs - lots of little flashes but also lots of defensive lapses and turnovers. And they still lack shooting across the board. Wouldn't be surprised to see them be a 6th seed, wouldn't be surprised to see them miss the playoffs.
Denver
The Nuggets are interesting. Mudiay can be a very good PG but not until he cuts down on TO's (as noted, that's typical of rookie PGs), improves his outside shooting and his finishing at the rim. I struggled to get a read on Murray. His inability to turn the corner, his lack of ideal SG size and his deficiencies on defense made me think he has high bust potential. But I can't shake the feeling that he could also end up being that guy that when we look back at this draft are shocked that he went as low as he did. In a league that increasingly values perimeter shooting he could end up being very good. I think he'll struggle as a rookie somewhat but down the road, who knows? I really like Jokic and Nurkic is just fun to watch as a big burly guy with surprising agility and an unwillingness to back down to anyone. I don't think the Nuggets make the playoffs, but for them to have a shot, Gallinari has to finally stay healthy.
Phoenix
Barring a trade the Suns still have the problem of two PGs that aren't really compatible and a rising star at SG that needs minutes. Bender and Chriss have potential but I can't see them being much help this season. I like the Dudley signing but will he bring more than they lost in Leuer and Teletovic? Tucker is underrated and Chandler can still help, especially on the defensive end and in the locker room but there's not much more here. Len is just 23 but he hasn't shown a ton of development. Dumping Markief for a future pick is right along their long term plan to build through the draft. I don't see them making the playoffs.
LA Lakers
LA is improved but they aren't a playoff team. I really expected them to be players in free agency but it looks like times really have changed. For them to make a turnaround, Ingram will have to be the real deal. But he's not going to help them get anywhere this season.
So to me I see three teams almost guaranteed to make the playoffs, three more I expect to make the playoffs if healthy (and at least one of them likely won't be) and then 5 or 6 teams fighting for the last two or three spots.
Things seem pretty wide open to me.
