To me, it's ICON or bust ... and I have some hope for ICON.
As for the others
4. Natomas. First, there is no way to fund anything out there. This plan calls for not just 10 million in rent, but 50% of all game day tickets going to funding. It would cost the Maloofs $35 million a year. Non-starter.
3. Core. Really, its the K street / Westfield plan all over again. Not only no funding, KJ wants this thing on the rail yard. Thus, to have any shot they resubmitted the same plan with a "possible" rail yard opition "if feasible." I don't think this can get done, but I don't think the board will vote for it anyhow.
2. Kamillos/Vision. He knocks $50 million off the estimate and trys to meld Vision Maker into the old Cal Expo plan (Cal Expo I - where they fix up the current location.) Therefore, he isn't pushing the fair out to Natomas, but he expects the Board to turn the updated fairground over to Vison Maker for 50 weeks out of the year. I have a good guess how they'll vote on that.
So that leads us to ICON.
Not only do they have Turner on board to do this the right way ... Inland is at the table. If they are just along for the ride ... well this is still a huge long shot. But the rail yards is moving along very slowly. Westfield on K is getting worse by the day. West Sac's river front project is moving along much faster. I think it would make a lot of sense for Inland to put some money into the project to make more money later. As opposed to just having a train station and bus stop next to the project, Inland raises the value of their own land a lot by helping put an arena there to draw people. How much is the question? Let's get crazy and put them in for 1/4 of the 400 million.
The Maloofs will drop in 300 million but it's rent not up front money. What the hell, between ICON not needing it up front and maybe getting a some of the Natomas land - we are putting the Kings down for a quarter of the cost. (They aren't paying more than 25%)
If they get this close, I think KJ might be able to come up with 100 million from the board. That's got to be the max, and it would have to be the last piece in ... but its possible.
They would need ICON to find a way to get it done for 400 and close that last 25% on their own. They probably get the city's land, a little Maloof land, and some profits from the arena and the redeveloping the land in Natomas.
Plus, they can use the state and fed funds that are needed for the rail, ect, that is part of this complex.
A lot of if's. If Inland stepped up with 25%, and ICON nailed down 25%, and they found a way to get the Maloofs in for 25%, KJ might be able to get this home. Thus, I have a little hope here.
If any of those four wheels fall off ... game over. But I think there is some reason for hope. We've been looking for a 3rd party to get 50% of this done. Maybe ICON and Inland can team up to do it. To me the biggest question is whether Inland is "on board" but hoping the city will agree to pay 50% or more with Inland not paying for an arena they won't directly profit from or is Inland willing to drop a lot of seed money into the arena trying to make it back on the land they already own? Maybe they would do that ... if so, there is some reason to hope. If not, I don't see how ICON does 50% when nobody else could pencil that out over 11 years.
