Forecasting Bagley

[whozit]

It’s really not his 3rd season of playing experience though.

He hammers the same points but won't acknowledge that fact. It also doesn't matter where he was picked, that pick is a sunk cost now (overlooking the cost of keeping control of him for another year). What matters now is what happens going forward. He is beginning to have an upward trajectory, now in the next year and a half, we might get a better idea of what he may become.

 

[Section 101]

It’s really not his 3rd season of playing experience though.

But he has had the full 2 off seasons and 3 training camps.

 

[Livinthedream]

There is no substitute for full speed, regular season NBA games.

 

[Gguod]

It’s really not his 3rd season of playing experience though.

Its his 3rd season spent with professional organisation with basically unlimited acces to professional trainers and film room. To me time with the organisation means something when some of the problems have been basketball IQ related. Its pretty rare that a player improves much from low BBIQ in his 3rd/4th year in the league. Obviously injuries can slow down developement but it would be easier to blame some strength/athetisism issues to injuries rather than basketball IQ, especially when the player have never demonstrated high bbiq.

He hammers the same points but won't acknowledge that fact. It also doesn't matter where he was picked, that pick is a sunk cost now (overlooking the cost of keeping control of him for another year). What matters now is what happens going forward. He is beginning to have an upward trajectory, now in the next year and a half, we might get a better idea of what he may become.

I dont come up with these metrics, I dont make them, I'm just stating what the numbers say so i think its useless to see me as an a**hole. The numbers say Bagley has yet to prove himself to be a net positive player. To me the eye test says that too (thats the thing that you can debate about) combined with the basic theory of what generates value in todays NBA. When Bagley actually becomes a net positive player I'm going to be the first one to acknowledge that and be extremely happy for it. In the meantime I'm stating metrics and what I'm seeing by eye test.

 

[whozit]

........

I dont come up with these metrics, I dont make them, I'm just stating what the numbers say so i think its useless to see me as an a**hole. The numbers say Bagley has yet to prove himself to be a net positive player. To me the eye test says that too (thats the thing that you can debate about) combined with the basic theory of what generates value in todays NBA. When Bagley actually becomes a net positive player I'm going to be the first one to acknowledge that and be extremely happy for it. In the meantime I'm stating metrics and what I'm seeing by eye test.

First off, someone stubborn (yes, I would consider you that) doesn't make them an a-hole. You have the metrics that someone else developed but ignore the number of games he has missed (that is a negative variable) or the fact bigs take longer to develop. I don’t know what he will become but he is getting better even if he is still a net-negative. Will he ever be a net-positive? That remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen what his next contract will be. What that number ends up at will also determine what his worth is on court compared to what his cost actually is. To date has he earned his salary? No, but will he in the future is a different question.

 

[Gguod]

First off, someone stubborn (yes, I would consider you that) doesn't make them an a-hole. You have the metrics that someone else developed but ignore the number of games he has missed (that is a negative variable) or the fact bigs take longer to develop. I don’t know what he will become but he is getting better even if he is still a net-negative. Will he ever be a net-positive? That remains to be seen. It also remains to be seen what his next contract will be. What that number ends up at will also determine what his worth is on court compared to what his cost actually is. To date has he earned his salary? No, but will he in the future is a different question.

I dont ignore his missed games, I acknowledge them as a speed bump for his developement but I still see it somewhat concerning that in his 3rd year in a professional organisation, he still is a net negative player per advanced metrics (and eye test imo). If someone else thinks his missed games completely explain him being a net negative and that its probable that through more games he will drastically improve his contribution towards winning basketball then thats fine for me.

I also think its possible that he will turn it around and become a net positive, even a better than average starter at his position but at this moment he is far from it.

 

[Warhawk]

But he has had the full 2 off seasons and 3 training camps.

Minor quibble here - they really didn't have a training camp this year. What - 1.5 to 2 weeks max? I didn't check, just going off memory here. And with COVID, teammates haven't been able to practice together at all during the off season.

Also, that still doesn't mean he has 2 years experience under his belt given his previous injuries. Is he a 3rd year player? Yes. But he doesn't have 2 full years of experience. There is a difference.

 

[Section 101]

Minor quibble here - they really didn't have a training camp this year. What - 1.5 to 2 weeks max? I didn't check, just going off memory here. And with COVID, teammates haven't been able to practice together at all during the off season.

Also, that still doesn't mean he has 2 years experience under his belt given his previous injuries. Is he a 3rd year player? Yes. But he doesn't have 2 full years of experience. There is a difference.

Yes, but it's the same for everyone. Haliburton seems to be fine with the short camp this year and he was hurt last year in college right?

 

[Warhawk]

Yes, but it's the same for everyone. Haliburton seems to be fine with the short camp this year and he was hurt last year in college right?

And Bagley isn't Haliburton.

Whatever - it's not worth the argument. Like I said, it was a minor quibble.

Frankly, I'm glad Bagley has been playing better recently. Everyone should be. The better he plays, the better our team is. If it takes him an extra year or whatever to develop due to injuries, etc., it is what it is. Some players take a bit longer.

 

[midtowner]

Not a minor quibble. Bagley was out with the Rona. His first five games were terrible. This evaluation throws them out.

most disappointing part of his game: defensive rebounding. If he was solid cleaning the glass, I think he’d be a positive player. And it’s weird because he is an excellent offensive rebounder.

still needs work but progressing - passing. His pocket passing is terrible and he is not hitting shooters in the pocket. But he’s starting to move the ball and not be a black hole. I think he’ll start hitting 3 point shooters with inside out passes soon.

already there - the corner 3 is looking good. Just being able to hit that consistently is huge - especially since he can get to the rim in one dribble.

needs work - ball handling. He still doesn’t know where he’s going with the ball. And hasn’t figured out how to mix up his stride with chop steps. But he’s starting not to try to do too much.

defense - still not good. But he’s making strides. It probably isn’t going to happen this year. But there is a path to him being an ok defender. He’s already decent one-on-one in the post. But not so much when someone strong takes him off the dribble. And his 3 point line awareness is terrible. He’s showing some good stuff as a help defender.

Overall - he’s young, competitive and can make buckets. And his rep is that he puts in the work. I’m betting on him being a neutral player by years end. And a positive player next year if he can add some real strength.

if we could trade his dad’s Twitter account, I’d be optimistic about his future here as a 4 and small ball 5.

 

[steelevt]

Considering Lonzo has had zero success at shutting his Dad up, I fail to see the benefit.

recently i havent seen many quotes from lavar on Lonzo. Lamelo yes, but not much drama with Lonzo and the pelicans

 

[King Baller]

Refs don't seem to respect Bagley. He gets ejected tonight and seldom gets calls. He needs to earn it I guess. Pay his dues and all that.

 

[chief bromden]

Refs don't seem to respect Bagley. He gets ejected tonight and seldom gets calls. He needs to earn it I guess. Pay his dues and all that.

If you are talking about calls on the offensive end, they are doing him a favor if he isn't getting calls. He can't hit a free throw right now and he's in his head about it.

 

[Telemachus]

If you are talking about calls on the offensive end, they are doing him a favor if he isn't getting calls. He can't hit a free throw right now and he's in his head about it.

I disagree. A non-call gives the player (& team) a missed shot and likely a loss of possession. Calling a foul accomplishes several things. 1. He gets FTs (he makes more than half and should improve.) 2. It gets their big men in foul trouble and possibly time on the bench. 3. It can get them in the penalty which will put other players at the line as well. All of these can help the team win.

 

[King Baller]

If you are talking about calls on the offensive end, they are doing him a favor if he isn't getting calls. He can't hit a free throw right now and he's in his head about it.

Offensive end, defensive end, it is a trend. The non calls on the defensive end has been building as his defense is improving. He stopped the Phenom last night on both plays the technicals were called on. Hence Bagleys frustration. I have to assume he used a magic word because otherwise he did nothing to deserve the ejection. Refs were just punks.

 

[Telemachus]

Offensive end, defensive end, it is a trend. The non calls on the defensive end has been building as his defense is improving. He stopped the Phenom last night on both plays the technicals were called on. Hence Bagleys frustration. I have to assume he used a magic word because otherwise he did nothing to deserve the ejection. Refs were just punks.

There was no magic word in the second T, all he said was, "Oh! Oh!"

 

[chief bromden]

I disagree. A non-call gives the player (& team) a missed shot and likely a loss of possession. Calling a foul accomplishes several things. 1. He gets FTs (he makes more than half and should improve.) 2. It gets their big men in foul trouble and possibly time on the bench. 3. It can get them in the penalty which will put other players at the line as well. All of these can help the team win.

True, but it also has an the intangible effect of getting Bagley in his head. He seems to be improving his game, so I'm hoping this FT thing is just a blip.

Last 30 days: 43%
Last 15 days: 15%

 

[chief bromden]

Offensive end, defensive end, it is a trend. The non calls on the defensive end has been building as his defense is improving. He stopped the Phenom last night on both plays the technicals were called on. Hence Bagleys frustration. I have to assume he used a magic word because otherwise he did nothing to deserve the ejection. Refs were just punks.

Totally agree, well put

 

[ppine]

All he said was WTF?

 

[Telemachus]

All he said was WTF?

I believe that was after getting the T.

 

[Joshoua]

It’s really not his 3rd season of playing experience though.

We’re still doing this huh

 

[whozit]

We’re still doing this huh

Yes and he is improving.

 

[ppine]

The Kings can win with or without him.

 

[Section 101]

Offensive end, defensive end, it is a trend. The non calls on the defensive end has been building as his defense is improving. He stopped the Phenom last night on both plays the technicals were called on. Hence Bagleys frustration. I have to assume he used a magic word because otherwise he did nothing to deserve the ejection. Refs were just punks.

It was the jumping up and down.

 

[midtowner]

Refs hating on his phenomenal double-jump ability.

 

[Livinthedream]

Refs hating on his phenomenal double-jump ability.

Ouch

 

[SacTownKid]

The Kings can win with or without him.

Fox is the engine, but how much better can they be with the talent Bagley brings? Fox, Bagley, Haliburton, Buddy. That's a lot of talent right there that all do some different things.

 

[ppine]

Hoppy needs to learn to stop jumping in the air on defense.
He is trying to play in a more physical style on offense.

 

[SLAB]

We’re still doing this huh

We should sign Greg Oden and tell everyone “It’s okay, he’s basically just in his second season still!”

I’m not denying Bagley is getting better, because he is, I still think it’s a very silly argument though. No matter how you slice it, Bags is a third year pro.

 

[Joshoua]

We should sign Greg Oden and tell everyone “It’s okay, he’s basically just in his second season still!”

I’m not denying Bagley is getting better, because he is, I still think it’s a very silly argument though. No matter how you slice it, Bags is a third year pro.

Bagley will win rookie of the year next year you watch.

Yes and he is improving.

Doesn’t he have like the 4th worst defensive BPM in the league