Forecasting Bagley

[SacTownKid]

With Whiteside, Holmes is redundant. Bjelica, as much as I like him (I have his jersey), is a bit difficult to hide on D if he is guarding 4s. My bigman rotation would be Holmes and Whiteside compete for minutes, Bjelica comes off the bench to switch up our look on O, and Bagley receives the most minutes. I dont see a valid reason to do it differently. Not really interested in Barnes at 4, unless he is in there to run a *GULP* small-ball lineup with Whiteside prowling around the rim.

Whiteside can do a few things at an elite level but there is a reason someone that puts up numbers near what a max player should make is on a minimum deal. Holmes is far quicker and more athletic and can switch. Whiteside can be a liability on pick and roll at times. Who knows what Whiteside will bring and how they use him but last year the Holmes/Bjelica rotation at center wasn't terrible. And again, the stats last year showed that Barnes at PF was this teams only shot to a decent +/-. Was it just him or simply playing small? Probably a little bit of both but it was the trick that Walton either refused to see or didn't see all year. Doesn't matter which, it was inexcusable.

 

[iowamcnabb]

It’s been two months since the start of this thread. After a rough start, Marvin has made some improvements. His corner three is one of his top weapons on offense. On D, he has done a much better job. I rewatched the first quarter of the Orlando game and thought that was his best effort to date. He is still a poor passer but he is no longer a black hole.

 

[ppine]

I call him Hoppy because he leaves his feet constantly. That is okay on offense, but a sin on defense.

 

[midtowner]

I’m still waiting until game 20 to do an evaluation. But it’s clear that the game is starting to come to him easier and he is not forcing the issue as much.

As to the off court stuff - 100% agree with David Carmichael’s recent tweets.

 

[whozit]

I’m still waiting until game 20 to do an evaluation. But it’s clear that the game is starting to come to him easier and he is not forcing the issue as much.

As to the off court stuff - 100% agree with David Carmichael’s recent tweets.

Would you summarize his recent tweets? I have gotten off that platform.

 

[Reverend]

Would you summarize his recent tweets? I have gotten off that platform.

Dave was going at Bagleys dad telling him to come on his show and explain his reasoning for publicly calling for his sons trade from the team. After Luke decided to roll without Bags in the 4th his father was upset and retweeting things about his son being traded and to what teams, teaming up with Lonzo Ball, etc

 

[midtowner]

The dad stuff is uncomfortable, not Marvin’s fault, but detrimental to the team.

Marvin’s a developmental player, lots of good things happening with his offense, but his defense is still terrible and a legitimate reason for him to sit in the 4th.

 

[Livinthedream]

Dave needs to not take Marvin's dad's tweets personally. Sheesh.

Being a radio personality and spending a day going after his dad on Twitter is just as detrimental to the team as the dad's tweet.

 

[iowamcnabb]

Dave needs to not take Marvin's dad's tweets personally. Sheesh.

Marvin could ask his dad to skip the retweets out of respect for his teammates and there would be nothing to discuss.

This will be an issue until one of two things happens
1- Marvin becomes a super stud he and his dad think he already is
2-Marv is traded in the offseason or at the ‘22 deadline.

he should have been on the court in the 4th against the heat but he wasn’t. “Control what you can control” as Marvin always says and get over it.

 

[Livinthedream]

Marvin could ask his dad to skip the retweets out of respect for his teammates and there would be nothing to discuss.

This will be an issue until one of two things happens
1- Marvin becomes a super stud he and his dad think he already is
2-Marv is traded in the offseason or at the ‘22 deadline.

he should have been on the court in the 4th against the heat but he wasn’t. “Control what you can control” as Marvin always says and get over it.

I hear you. But Marvin isn't making the Tweets. Marvin can't control his dad, nor can he control whether Luke wants to play him in the 4th.

If Kings fans don't like the tweets, starve his dad of the attention he is seeking.

 

[iowamcnabb]

I hear you. But Marvin isn't making the Tweets. Marvin can't control his dad, nor can he control whether Luke wants to play him in the 4th.

If Kings fans don't like the tweets, starve his dad of the attention he is seeking.

Every family dynamic is different, but I have a hard time understanding how politely asking your father to avoid degrading your coach and your teammates in public is out of the question.

you are right, fans should just ignore him, myself included. It does make me feel less enthusiastic about rooting for his son unfortunately.

 

[whozit]

Every family dynamic is different, but I have a hard time understanding how politely asking your father to avoid degrading your coach and your teammates in public is out of the question.

you are right, fans should just ignore him, myself included. It does make me feel less enthusiastic about rooting for his son unfortunately.

We actually don't know if he hasn't. It is possible, not saying probable, that he has but is refusing to air family dirty laundry in public. Asking can get no for the reply especially if the father believes he is correct.

 

[iowamcnabb]

We actually don't know if he hasn't. It is possible, not saying probable, that he has but is refusing to air family dirty laundry in public. Asking can get no for the reply especially if the father believes he is correct.

It’s possible but unlikely. As long as it isn’t effecting team chemistry I suppose I should just brush it off.

 

[dude12]

His dad’s tweets are dumb. Marvin isn’t doing this. But I’d also understand If Marvin is frustrated with not playing in the 4th. Quite frankly, if You want to be fair, go back and watch the last 2 or 3 games. Holmes hasn’t been good despite his mom tweeting that his defense was outstanding last game and she was frustrated with something.....
In the Toronto game, Marvin actually was the Better defender against Siakam all game long....not Holmes and not Hassan when Toronto went small.

Marvin hasn’t been a black hole, he moves the ball, he’s not a terrible passer because they aren’t asking him to do anything other than move the ball. He’s been solid. Yes, he still does get beat on defense but show me a guy in the Kings that doesn’t. I mean, is Barnes the closest we got to that?

Ive been one that thinks the Kings might be better going small but after watching these 4th Q’s with the 3 guard offense and HB and Holmes or Hassan, I see us getting beat constantly on the boards. In the first Q with our starting lineup, I think it’s been the most balanced lineup all around.....but we want Hali on the floor. So that means either Bagley or Hield sits and we need Buddy’s shooting. Despite Bagley and Hield defensive numbers being bad, I don’t see them as bottom of the league defenders. There’s something flawed there.

What I would like to see is a willingness or More accurately an ability by Walton to identify in real time who is the better bit to be on the floor whether it’s replacing Hassan or Holmes with Bags if he matches up with a Siakam better or we don’t automatically just ice out Bagley.

And I actually don’t agree with Carmichael Dave’s tweets on this one of Hield and Bagley being terrible on defense. Not great, not good but goode enough that the other things they bring are needed on the floor. His calling out Team Bagley is just bringing attention to them and I think it’s the wrong call.

 

[Section 101]

Would you summarize his recent tweets? I have gotten off that platform.

I dropped him for the political crap.

 

[whozit]

I dropped him for the political crap.

I dropped that platform for that.

 

[upinsmoke]

I dropped him for the political crap.

Marvin sr or dave?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

It's ludicrous for him to sit the entire 4th quarter - not even to get 2-3 minutes. It's also extremely ludicrous not to put him in for the final possession. If nothing else it forces the Heat to consider a play being drawn up for Bagley. Nobody drawing up the final play for Richuan, especially not Luke.

 

[Section 101]

Marvin sr or dave?

Dave and a bunch of other people I followed for sports.

 

[steelevt]

I hear you. But Marvin isn't making the Tweets. Marvin can't control his dad, nor can he control whether Luke wants to play him in the 4th.

If Kings fans don't like the tweets, starve his dad of the attention he is seeking.

We should trade for lonzo just so he can teach MB3 how to shut his dad up. Everything else would be a bonus.

 

[Telemachus]

We should trade for lonzo just so he can teach MB3 how to shut his dad up. Everything else would be a bonus.

Considering Lonzo has had zero success at shutting his Dad up, I fail to see the benefit.

 

[Livinthedream]

We should trade for lonzo just so he can teach MB3 how to shut his dad up. Everything else would be a bonus.

“Luke Walton was the worst coach he ever had. It’s Magic the one that said he’s going to be the face of the dang franchise. But Magic ain’t doing no coaching. So, the only person that killed Lonzo is the coach pulling him out and not having no confidence in it. Everybody who has had confidence in Lonzo just let him and let him win. That’s what he does. He wins. Luke Walton turned him into a loser’s mentality of ‘Oh he’s young, he’ll get it’ instead of letting him go out there and just letting him do what he does. Taking him out in the fourth quarters, not letting him start the quarters. Listen, that’s a lot of stupid stuff. If you get a guy like Lonzo, you let him do what he does which is win.” - LaVar Ball

Probably not a good fit while Luke is still here.

 

[King Baller]

Dave and a bunch of other people I followed for sports.

I did the same. I followed them for sports, not political opinions.

 

[upinsmoke]

Dave and a bunch of other people I followed for sports.

I get it but sports and politics will always be linked in one way or another. I quickly sorted through his Twitter but didn't see anything outrageous so IDK.

 

[Gguod]

I was just looking at the RPM numbers. Bagley is 50th out of 66 power forwards with -2,50. In his rookie year he was 74th out of 96 and last season 64th out of 99. Obviously not a decisive metric itself but it supports the eye test and its consistent through his nba career. He just needs to find a way to become a net positive player at least.

Other Kings (rank in players position group)
Fox 13th
Hield 19th
Barnes 17th
Holmes 15th
Haliburton 37th

 

[Livinthedream]

I was just looking at the RPM numbers. Bagley is 50th out of 66 power forwards with -2,50. In his rookie year he was 74th out of 96 and last season 64th out of 99. Obviously not a decisive metric itself but it supports the eye test and its consistent through his nba career. He just needs to find a way to become a net positive player at least.

Other Kings (rank in players position group)
Fox 13th
Hield 19th
Barnes 17th
Holmes 15th
Haliburton 37th

In context, +/- is a team stat. Haliburton is worse than Buddy because he plays significant minutes with the backups.

Marvin only plays about 15 minutes a game with the starters, with a portion of that to start the 3rd qtr, when the whole team is notoriously bad. Since Marvin doesn't play in the 4th, he doesn't get to participate when the team is getting it together.

The starting lineup that includes Buddy and Marvin has statistically been the best lineup for the Kings.

 

[Gguod]

In context, +/- is a team stat. Haliburton is worse than Buddy because he plays significant minutes with the backups.

Marvin only plays about 15 minutes a game with the starters, with a portion of that to start the 3rd qtr, when the whole team is notoriously bad. Since Marvin doesn't play in the 4th, he doesn't get to participate when the team is getting it together.

The starting lineup that includes Buddy and Marvin has statistically been the best lineup for the Kings.

Rpm isnt the same as straight on +/-. It aims to calculate the impact of any specific player considering the lineups he plays in. The fact that all the other starters seem to be at least an average starter level or better and Bagley is out of the league level is concerning (especially since its the third year in a row). It matches the eye test and the logic of why and how different types of players are valuable. Again, rpm alone isnt a stat that alone will determine your value but the trend is concerning if every advanced metric suggests that one specific player is a net negative while all the other starters are net positives

 

[Livinthedream]

Rpm isnt the same as straight on +/-. It aims to calculate the impact of any specific player considering the lineups he plays in. The fact that all the other starters seem to be at least an average starter level or better and Bagley is out of the league level is concerning (especially since its the third year in a row). It matches the eye test and the logic of why and how different types of players are valuable. Again, rpm alone isnt a stat that alone will determine your value but the trend is concerning if every advanced metric suggests that one specific player is a net negative while all the other starters are net positives

The eye test does not say Marvin should be out of the league.

My greater point as it pertains to Marvin is that he generally comes out of the game during the notoriously bad 3rd quarters that the team has been having for years and doesn't get back in. His +/- and by extension, RPM, is now locked in.

 

[Gguod]

The eye test does not say Marvin should be out of the league.

My greater point as it pertains to Marvin is that he generally comes out of the game during the notoriously bad 3rd quarters that the team has been having for years and doesn't get back in. His +/- and by extension, RPM, is now locked in.

Imo the way his minutes has been distributed in these 3 seasons dont explain his bottom of the league RPM or other advanced metrics. A good thought exercise is that could you sub Marvin out for an average wing that can shoot/defend adequatly without it affecting on your teams success and data/my eye test says yes you can. Based on data (and eye test for some fans) Marvin has yet to become a net positive player. Fox was a net negative in his first year based on these metrics but now hes 13th in his position (based on rpm). Its Marvins 3rd year and hes still bottom of the league in his position on these metrics and imo eye test supports these numbers.

 

[King Baller]

Imo the way his minutes has been distributed in these 3 seasons dont explain his bottom of the league RPM or other advanced metrics. A good thought exercise is that could you sub Marvin out for an average wing that can shoot/defend adequatly without it affecting on your teams success and data/my eye test says yes you can. Based on data (and eye test for some fans) Marvin has yet to become a net positive player. Fox was a net negative in his first year based on these metrics but now hes 13th in his position (based on rpm). Its Marvins 3rd year and hes still bottom of the league in his position on these metrics and imo eye test supports these numbers.

It’s really not his 3rd season of playing experience though.