espn kings will go 23-59 ouch!

[=LarryLegend=]

Hollinger's Team Forecast: Sacramento Kings

By John Hollinger
ESPN.com
(Archive)

Updated: October 1, 2008

[full article]

Outlook

The Kings are going to be substantially worse than they were a season ago, and I'm not sure they're prepared for how hard a fall this is going to be. Looking up and down their roster, they have only one above-average player (Martin) and several positions that shape up as major question marks.


Additionally, nearly every King shot above his career norms from the floor and the 3-point line last season. Salmons, Garcia, Udrih and Martin had the best seasons of their respective careers while Miller had a Fluke Rule season; we should expect all of them to regress to the mean somewhat this year, with Salmons and Miller likely to experience harsher dips than the others.


All those would be reasons to pick Sacramento to drop several games even if Artest had stayed; so would the fact that they had the point differential of a 34-win team rather than a 38-win team. Add it all up and throw in a coach who seems on a completely different page than his players, and the Kings may have much more rebuilding ahead of them than they realize.


Prediction: 23-59, 5th in Pacific Division, 14th in Western Conference


John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider


http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/train...lumnist=hollinger_john&page=KingsForecast0809



I think kings will atleast win 34 games.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

if this does happen. Ricky Rubio will be a king!!

Ricky Rubio and Kevin Martin!!!!! I can only dream.

 

[One and Done]

Hollinger's got a few valid points, some that I had not taken into account - specifically, players shooting much-higher-than-average FG%.

However, I think his conclusion is a little drastic, very worst-case scenario. I'll agree that this year won't be pretty, but it won't be that bad.

I'm pegging the season - taking into account the personnel and schedule matchups - as a 28 win trip to the lottery (and if Hawes doesn't improve, hello BJ Mullens). Best case scenario has us at a few games under .500 if the team plays like it did with Bibby/Artest out.

 

[Arby's Roast Beef]

Cutting through all his clutter, as one and done said, valid points abound--we were a good shooting team, but it's hard not to notice that players like Salmons and Udrih may have been over their heads a bit considering their career averages and what I believe was once their reputation as jack of all trades master of none type players--I do think they will level off. The win total is not totally unexpected--we are a young team, and this is the year for young players. Martin's no-D from Hollinger was admittedly, kind of harsh though.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

and if Hawes doesn't improve, hello BJ Mullens

We need a pg bad. i like beno.....but he is a backup.

I am going to throw a name out Patrick Mills

Ricky Rubio
Brandon Jennings

or even Demar DeRozan

 

[kennadog]

Martin's no-D from Hollinger was admittedly, kind of harsh though.

This is a big year for Martin in all aspects of his game. Admittedly, though, this is where I'd like to see noticeable improvement from him.

I think 23 wins is rough, but not completely out of the realm of possibility. I hope we're a little better than that, though. We have to hope that at least our guys give it their all on the court, learn and grow this year. I'll be most disappointed if I don't see signs of improvement and coming together as a team.

On the other hand...could be our year for a high lottery pick.

 

[Bricklayer]

Okay, I am going to have to edit this because its an ESPN Insider article (pay service). Get to it here soon -- I'll leave as many critical excerpts as I can as well as links.

 

[NME]

Okay, I am going to have to edit this because its an ESPN Insider article (pay service).

Not as far as I can tell. I don't have an Insider subscription anymore and I was able to read the whole thing, and it's not an Insider URL.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

Okay, I am going to have to edit this because its an ESPN Insider article (pay service).

this is on the website. I am not an insider.

 

[Telemachus]

Cutting through all his clutter, as one and done said, valid points abound--we were a good shooting team, but it's hard not to notice that players like Salmons and Udrih may have been over their heads a bit considering their career averages and what I believe was once their reputation as jack of all trades master of none type players--I do think they will level off. The win total is not totally unexpected--we are a young team, and this is the year for young players. Martin's no-D from Hollinger was admittedly, kind of harsh though.

I think there are a couple of things that he forgot to take into account when he brought up the shooting %.
First, both Martin and Cisco are young players who have shown improvement every year. This makes it very reasonable for them to show improvement again. They are a bit young to be on the decline IMO. In fact, they are entering their prime years.
Secondly, both Beno and Salmons had their first seasons with a high percentage of the time starting. Increased minutes usually lead to higher shooting percentages if the player has any talent. This season, they will both likely start most of the games, so I don't expect a huge drop off from either of them. Beno's youth should bode well for him as well.
Miller is the one legitimate point he had IMO. Despite his new dedication to being in shape, we all know that making that kind of change that late is hard to maintain. I hope he has another good season left in him, but wouldn't be surprised if he has a big drop in his play this year.

 

[Bricklayer]

this is on the website. I am not an insider.

Oh, ok, cool. Makes this much easier + means everybody will be able to read the article. That makes me happy.

In any case, standard article policy here anymore -- I'm going to edit it to an excerpt (the Outlook section) + then a link to the article as a whole. Don't want websites to get pissy about alleged lost hits/ad revenue.

 

[Smills91]

I think there are a couple of things that he forgot to take into account when he brought up the shooting %.
First, both Martin and Cisco are young players who have shown improvement every year. This makes it very reasonable for them to show improvement again. They are a bit young to be on the decline IMO. In fact, they are entering their prime years.
Secondly, both Beno and Salmons had their first seasons with a high percentage of the time starting. Increased minutes usually lead to higher shooting percentages if the player has any talent. This season, they will both likely start most of the games, so I don't expect a huge drop off from either of them. Beno's youth should bode well for him as well.
Miller is the one legitimate point he had IMO. Despite his new dedication to being in shape, we all know that making that kind of change that late is hard to maintain. I hope he has another good season left in him, but wouldn't be surprised if he has a big drop in his play this year.

No way it'll be reasonably around his career averages like last year.

 

[NME]

We need a pg bad. i like beno.....but he is a backup.

His numbers as a starter last year would have put him in the top ten among PG's in scoring, all three shooting %'s, and rebounding. His assists only put him at 18th, but if like Reggie speculates he can improve on that with training camp and some adjustments, adding just one assist per game puts him on the cusp of the top ten there too. If he's not a starting PG, then most teams must not have one either.

 

[=LarryLegend=]

His numbers as a starter last year would have put him in the top ten among PG's in scoring, all three shooting %'s, and rebounding. His assists only put him at 18th, but if like Reggie speculates he can improve on that with training camp and some adjustments, adding just one assist per game puts him on the cusp of the top ten there too. If he's not a starting PG, then most teams must not have one either.

What about a/t, defense, and speed. he is VERY turnover prone. and always injured.

 

[hrdboild]

I think that assessment is pretty accurate all around. The record prediction is obviously just a wild guess, but I suspect it's in the right ballpark. A sub .500 team losing their best player and adding a trio of rookies can expect to lose a lot.

"Udrih, Salmons and power forward Mikki Moore all were among the worst turnover ratios at their positions, while not a single King ranked in the top 25 at his spot."

This one is particularly alarming considering both Udrih and Salmons are signed to long-term contracts and all three are in the starting lineup. I liked Mikki as an end of the bench scrub with the Clippers but not as a starter for MLE money. Good guy, just limited as a basketball player. And Udrih always looked more comfortable as a scorer than a set-up man last season.

"Defensively, the Kings were fairly pitiful. Though Artest is one of the league's premier defenders almost nobody else played much D, and the Kings finished the season 26th in defensive efficiency. Sacramento forced an above-average number of turnovers thanks to its quick wing players but was horrid in every other respect. In particular, a soft frontcourt seemed to be the Kings' undoing -- they were 27th in both blocks and defensive rebound rate."

This is the other part that jumped out at me. I don't see how this is going to get any better. Losing Artest is going to hurt, even if the guy taking his place, Salmons, was our second best defender. The personnel is the same, the coaching is the same. I really hope that the front office is a lot more concerned about this behind the scenes than they appear to be.

 

[Bricklayer]

His numbers as a starter last year would have put him in the top ten among PG's in scoring, all three shooting %'s, and rebounding. His assists only put him at 18th, but if like Reggie speculates he can improve on that with training camp and some adjustments, adding just one assist per game puts him on the cusp of the top ten there too. If he's not a starting PG, then most teams must not have one either.

I would say that if we actually are serious about running the triangle, his assists would be as likely to drop as to go up as he won't have the ball in his hands much. Not sure if there has ever been a triangle (at least Phil/Tex triangle) PG who averaged even 6 asssits. Paxon, BJ Armstrong, Harper, Fisher, Smush...

But that said, in a triangle offense where you don't need your PG to be Nash (as an aside its actually kind of funny how anti-PG our offenses have been for the last decade in Sacto), a guy like Beno could slide in just fine as a starter. You look at that list of guys who have been the points for Phil and Harper might be the only guy significantly better. Of course those Phil teams were able to get away wiht it because of MJ & Pipper and Shaq & Kobe, wheras we have Kevin & Salmons. But still.

 

[est.1999]

seriously NME everyone wants a Paul or Williams type. Those guys are rare

 

[NME]

What about a/t, defense, and speed. he is VERY turnover prone. and always injured.

No, he's not everything or an elite PG, but he's near the upper tier in several areas. Speed or lack thereof factors into what he can or can't produce in the other areas, he showed the potential to be decent defensively, and it would only take a small padding of assist and/or small decrease in TO's to put that ratio in the standard range. If he didn't have any of those drawbacks, he'd be a top PG. I'm just saying he's of solid starting quality.

 

[PurpleHaze]

No, he's not everything or an elite PG, but he's near the upper tier in several areas. Speed or lack thereof factors into what he can or can't produce in the other areas, he showed the potential to be decent defensively, and it would only take a small padding of assist and/or small decrease in TO's to put that ratio in the standard range. If he didn't have any of those drawbacks, he'd be a top PG. I'm just saying he's of solid starting quality.

Beno Udrih is better overall, faster-quicker than Mike Bibby, at least the Bibby we had for the last few years. I think Beno will be even better this year after his first Kings training camp and now confidently settling into his starting role under the new contract. Yes, Beno's a solid starting PG and hopefully he remains injury free this season to prove his MLE worth.

 

[hrdboild]

Beno Udrih is better overall, faster-quicker than Mike Bibby, at least the Bibby we had for the last few years.

Isn't that kindof like saying Mikki Moore is faster/more mobile/better overall than the Webber we had for a year or so after his knee surgery?

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

Hey, I'm all for being realistic, but c'mon Mr. Hollinger, isnt 23 wins a bit harsh?? Even without Ron I see us winning close to the 38 we did last year.

 

[BritishColumbia]

Personally, I think that the Kings will be better than 23 wins this season. Is it possible? Yeah, it is BUT I am more optimistic now.

 

[Vlade4GM]

We need a pg bad. i like beno.....but he is a backup.

I am going to throw a name out Patrick Mills

Ricky Rubio
Brandon Jennings

or even Demar DeRozan

I'd take Jrue Holiday if he ends up declaring.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I see the kings wosing about 25-30 times this year.

 

[NME]

Hey, I'm all for being realistic, but c'mon Mr. Hollinger, isnt 23 wins a bit harsh?? Even without Ron I see us winning close to the 38 we did last year.

I have a hard time seeing quite that far a drop unless maybe if we liquidate a few vets for draft picks. Sometimes John Nerdlinger can't see the forest for the regression to the mean.

 

[JerN820]

Eh. Who knows? A lot depends on how much playing time the young players get. With the starters we have coming back, the record doesnt look like it will be good. We'll see. I hope Greene and Thompson are able to show improvement throughout the season and Hawes starts to come into his own.

 

[Smills91]

I have a hard time seeing a rotation of:

C: Brad Miller - 12 ppg
PF: Mikki Moore - 8 ppg
SF: John Salmons - 17 ppg
SG: Kevin Martin - 25 ppg
PG: Beno Udrih - 14 ppg
6th: Francisco Garcia - 8 ppg
7th: Bobby Jackson - 6 ppg
8th: Spencer Hawes - 5 ppg
9th: Jason Thompson - 3 ppg
10th: Quincy Douby - 2 ppg

going anything less that 30 wins next season.

That's a pretty well-balanced team of skills, talent, age and athleticism. While it's not a title contender that still a pretty good roster. Better than a lot of other teams that are being heavily OVERRATED :cough: Golden :cough: State :cough: Warriors :cough:

 

[Bricklayer]

I have a hard time seeing a rotation of:

C: Brad Miller - 12 ppg
PF: Mikki Moore - 8 ppg
SF: John Salmons - 17 ppg
SG: Kevin Martin - 25 ppg
PG: Beno Udrih - 14 ppg
6th: Francisco Garcia - 8 ppg
7th: Bobby Jackson - 6 ppg
8th: Spencer Hawes - 5 ppg
9th: Jason Thompson - 3 ppg
10th: Quincy Douby - 2 ppg

going anything less that 30 wins next season.

That's a pretty well-balanced team of skills, talent, age and athleticism. While it's not a title contender that still a pretty good roster. Better than a lot of other teams that are being heavily OVERRATED :cough: Golden :cough: State :cough: Warriors :cough:

You may even be shaving some of the bench players some points (Cisco, Hawes, Thompson). Unfortunately listing them by points is all too appropriate, as that is what the vast majority of them do best. I have predicted at least 10 more wins than Hollinger, but the issue isn't the scoring. Its that winning teams are full of guys who do things other than score, and we have precious few of those.

 

[Kings Faithful]

Yeah, ESPN always rates us like ****....Yeah, we lost Artest....Salmons can average Artest's offensive numbers...all we lost was Artest's amazing defence, but at the same time we gained a quality PF a backup PG and a potentially good SF...so were basically the same team except we traded Artest's defence for a bunch of other needs. And this time im more confident we wont get injured like we did last year. We just got destroyed by that, we woulve easily gone above .500 if we hadn't been injured. So i think we'll pass the .500 mark.

Don't try to bypass the profanity filters please. -- Brick

 

[Merdiesel]

Martin might not have the best defense but I guarantee he takes more charges then a lot of players in this league. That is the one thing hes does really well and I know as soon as he get to that all-star status he will get a lot more calls. I would love to see the NBA keep track of that stat.