Well, it probably depends whether or not the team selecting first has a target for the to-be-traded draft slot. Often that's the case. But it's certainly less so for lower picks, where in some cases teams may just value being able to make a pick, period.
For example, last year the Hornets sold their late-20s pick to Portland the day before the draft. I also have vague recollections (without any specifics) that trades where a lower pick is thrown in often go down before the lower pick -- so if we were to trade #4 and #23 for #2, the trade would probably not happen until after #4, but could happen before #23.
But yeah, if there's a particular player being targeted, the trade is on hold until that player is actually selected.
That's true, so long as the intervening team(s) know who is being targeted. For instance, it's a safe bet to assume everybody thinks we're after Rubio. But let's say that Memphis selected Rubio and a trade to Sacramento was immediately announced for the #4 (plus whatever). OKC has the choice of either trying to figure out who Memphis is gunning for at #4 (Thabeet, Harden, Evans, ??) or just taking the guy they want. Maybe Memphis is equally happy with either of two players, meaning that the Thunder can't even spoil the trade.
I agree that it would be very unlikely for a trade to be announced before the #4 pick in that scenario, but if it were it doesn't necessarily give OKC any useful leverage.
For example, last year the Hornets sold their late-20s pick to Portland the day before the draft. I also have vague recollections (without any specifics) that trades where a lower pick is thrown in often go down before the lower pick -- so if we were to trade #4 and #23 for #2, the trade would probably not happen until after #4, but could happen before #23.
But yeah, if there's a particular player being targeted, the trade is on hold until that player is actually selected.
That's true, so long as the intervening team(s) know who is being targeted. For instance, it's a safe bet to assume everybody thinks we're after Rubio. But let's say that Memphis selected Rubio and a trade to Sacramento was immediately announced for the #4 (plus whatever). OKC has the choice of either trying to figure out who Memphis is gunning for at #4 (Thabeet, Harden, Evans, ??) or just taking the guy they want. Maybe Memphis is equally happy with either of two players, meaning that the Thunder can't even spoil the trade.
I agree that it would be very unlikely for a trade to be announced before the #4 pick in that scenario, but if it were it doesn't necessarily give OKC any useful leverage.