Derrick Williams qualifying offer
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The money's not really the issue for me. Is Derrick Williams worth the non-starter-criteria QO? Yeah, probably. I think his defensive deficiences, while present (particularly in man defense), are overblown and that he's actually a pretty good team defender. His three point shot is certainly coming around, he takes fewer bad shots, and he's very good in the break and cutting to the basket.
The problem is this: Given that Moreland is almost certainly going to get a second chance, we're already returning nine players from a team that wasn't very good on the whole. Of the guys that aren't positively returning, there's Casspi (who look like he has a role on this team) and there's D-Will (who is beginning to look like he has a role on this team) and there's Miller (who works so well with Karl) and there's Reggie (who's a bruiser and a banger) and if we keep all of these guys all of a sudden we're the exact same team as last year. Thompson has a role, so we can't trade him without a purpose. We can't hope to get anything for Landry. Cuz and Rudy are the core. We've got two young SGs that we're going to be reluctant to give up on because they've both got a bunch of potential. And Collison never got a chance to show what he could do under Karl.
We've got to mix something up. I don't know what the moves need to be, but we've got to cut ties with somebody if we're going to get better. D-Will just seems like one of the least painful candidates.
The problem is this: Given that Moreland is almost certainly going to get a second chance, we're already returning nine players from a team that wasn't very good on the whole. Of the guys that aren't positively returning, there's Casspi (who look like he has a role on this team) and there's D-Will (who is beginning to look like he has a role on this team) and there's Miller (who works so well with Karl) and there's Reggie (who's a bruiser and a banger) and if we keep all of these guys all of a sudden we're the exact same team as last year. Thompson has a role, so we can't trade him without a purpose. We can't hope to get anything for Landry. Cuz and Rudy are the core. We've got two young SGs that we're going to be reluctant to give up on because they've both got a bunch of potential. And Collison never got a chance to show what he could do under Karl.
We've got to mix something up. I don't know what the moves need to be, but we've got to cut ties with somebody if we're going to get better. D-Will just seems like one of the least painful candidates.
Agreed. Derrick Williams looked better under George Karl but I don't see him as part of the solution to improving the Kings.
Cuz and Rudy ARE the core. Collison also showed me real value in (1) his ability to push the pace (2) his willingness to move the ball (3) being a very solid and pesky defender and (4) being a very positive force in the locker room and in regards to team chemistry. He has a very favorable contract as either a decent starting PG that fits the role he's been given or as a top notch backup PG.
In total the guys I want to see back are:
Cousins as a starter
Gay as a starter
Collison as a starter or reserve
Casspi as a reserve
Beyond that?
I wouldn't mind McLemore back as a starter/reserve especially as he progresses as a 3&D wing
I think JT is a nice contributor if a starting frontcourt player is brought in to push JT to the bench as a backup PF/C
At the right price I like Andre Miller as a backup PG, especially if the Kings acquire a young, talented PG that he can mentor
I would like to see Landry moved if possible.
I think Williams should be allowed to leave.
Moreland and McCallum come so cheap that I don't see why you wouldn't have them fill out the bench unless it becomes a numbers game (4 PGs etc)
I think Evans should be allowed walk in free agency
If Stauskas would net something in return I'd be fine with dealing him but his value right now is so low that I think the team would be better off holding on to him and seeing if he makes strides to either contribute to the Kings or increase his trade value.
Cuz and Rudy ARE the core. Collison also showed me real value in (1) his ability to push the pace (2) his willingness to move the ball (3) being a very solid and pesky defender and (4) being a very positive force in the locker room and in regards to team chemistry. He has a very favorable contract as either a decent starting PG that fits the role he's been given or as a top notch backup PG.
In total the guys I want to see back are:
Cousins as a starter
Gay as a starter
Collison as a starter or reserve
Casspi as a reserve
Beyond that?
I wouldn't mind McLemore back as a starter/reserve especially as he progresses as a 3&D wing
I think JT is a nice contributor if a starting frontcourt player is brought in to push JT to the bench as a backup PF/C
At the right price I like Andre Miller as a backup PG, especially if the Kings acquire a young, talented PG that he can mentor
I would like to see Landry moved if possible.
I think Williams should be allowed to leave.
Moreland and McCallum come so cheap that I don't see why you wouldn't have them fill out the bench unless it becomes a numbers game (4 PGs etc)
I think Evans should be allowed walk in free agency
If Stauskas would net something in return I'd be fine with dealing him but his value right now is so low that I think the team would be better off holding on to him and seeing if he makes strides to either contribute to the Kings or increase his trade value.
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He is absolutely not worth $4 million QO, because a) he will take it 
, b) it cuts whatever cap space Kings have, shrinking it down to MLE. If Kings find a good vet, who is willing to take cap space money to come over, then it's a problem of who between Casspi and Williams deserve Room Exception more, if both are willing to take it. For me the answer is obvious, and it's not in favor of Derrick.
When it's 2 months into new season, and no one is willing to come to Sacramento, and FO hasn't found a trade to use cap space, then by all means at least take Williams back, but that's a plan Z - tendering a QO is absolutely a mistake.
, b) it cuts whatever cap space Kings have, shrinking it down to MLE. If Kings find a good vet, who is willing to take cap space money to come over, then it's a problem of who between Casspi and Williams deserve Room Exception more, if both are willing to take it. For me the answer is obvious, and it's not in favor of Derrick.When it's 2 months into new season, and no one is willing to come to Sacramento, and FO hasn't found a trade to use cap space, then by all means at least take Williams back, but that's a plan Z - tendering a QO is absolutely a mistake.
4 million or 8 million...either way he is not worth the gamble in my opinion. We need to look elsewhere and start bringing in players who show up on a consistent basis...doesn't need to be on scoring but other little things that helps the team win. If Williams is going to figure it out, let him go figure it out overseas or on another lottery team who is willing to take a flyer on him.
I'm sorry - is ANYone actually suggesting that the Kings should make a $4+ million offer to Derrick Williams?!
That is absolutely STUNNING to me, if so.
Please - anyone who actually thinks this - raise your hand and explain to us how he is possibly worth tying up that much money (multi-year deal?!) and a roster spot, for someone who has proven clearly he's not worth that.
That is absolutely STUNNING to me, if so.
Please - anyone who actually thinks this - raise your hand and explain to us how he is possibly worth tying up that much money (multi-year deal?!) and a roster spot, for someone who has proven clearly he's not worth that.
Just for completeness' sake, a qualifying offer is NOT a multi-year deal. A qualifying offer is a one-year offer, which when offered makes the player a restricted free agent. This means that the player being given that offer can go out and sign a free-agent contract with another team and the team that made the QO has the option (not the duty) to match that offer sheet. Alternatively the player has the option of accepting the offer sheet in which case it becomes a real, one-year contract. So the commitment made to Derrick Williams if we tender the qualifying offer is about $4M and one year if he accepts it. Anything beyond that and we would have the discretion to say "no, thanks."
That said, $4M isn't really that much money in this year's NBA. The salary cap is going to be $67.1M and most teams typically carry about 14 players...and most teams spend at least a bit over the cap. Let's say an average salary of $70M per team next year. That would mean that the average player would be making $5M. Note that the cap is going to jump to $89M next year (average player making about $6.5M) and then jump further to $108M the year after that (average player making about $8M). So, if we were to lock up Derrick Williams for, say, 3 years at $4M each, he'd start out being paid less than an average player and finish up by being paid half of what an average player gets.
Now, Derrick Williams is not a star by any means and I would not make any grandiose suggestions that he'll bud into one. I think we've seen what he will be, and that is a roleplayer who can come off the bench and give 10-25 minutes depending on need on any given night. And a contract in the $4M range is not only well within the expectations for what you would pay for such a roleplayer today, but it would be downright cheap in two years (leaving us more money to focus on getting stars).
I do understand the concern of using a roster spot on him, but we obviously need to use roster spots on bench players. You can't have 15 starters on your team. Whether D-Will is one of the guys we end up choosing for a bench spot, I don't know. I won't be upset if we do, but I won't be upset if we don't so long as we find an adequate replacement. One thing that can be said for him is that he does seem to thrive in Karl's system.
As to whether or not we ought to make the qualifying offer, I think our front office is going to have to gauge the free agency tides this year and see what kind of contracts are likely to be handed out. There's quite a bit of talk that teams will spend freely this offseason and "overpay" players in the expectation that the upcoming salary cap rise will make their contracts bargains in the near future. This will cut both ways. Perhaps D-Will will be one of the players that will get overpaid. Or perhaps he will be one of the players who will be left behind to be scooped up incredibly cheaply once everybody has capped themselves out. If he's the former and Karl wants him around, we should make the QO. If he's the latter, we should wait out the market. Figuring out which category he is likely to fall into is the job of people in our front office who are better at this than I am. If we intend to keep him, hopefully they make the right decision.
That said, $4M isn't really that much money in this year's NBA. The salary cap is going to be $67.1M and most teams typically carry about 14 players...and most teams spend at least a bit over the cap. Let's say an average salary of $70M per team next year. That would mean that the average player would be making $5M. Note that the cap is going to jump to $89M next year (average player making about $6.5M) and then jump further to $108M the year after that (average player making about $8M). So, if we were to lock up Derrick Williams for, say, 3 years at $4M each, he'd start out being paid less than an average player and finish up by being paid half of what an average player gets.
Now, Derrick Williams is not a star by any means and I would not make any grandiose suggestions that he'll bud into one. I think we've seen what he will be, and that is a roleplayer who can come off the bench and give 10-25 minutes depending on need on any given night. And a contract in the $4M range is not only well within the expectations for what you would pay for such a roleplayer today, but it would be downright cheap in two years (leaving us more money to focus on getting stars).
I do understand the concern of using a roster spot on him, but we obviously need to use roster spots on bench players. You can't have 15 starters on your team. Whether D-Will is one of the guys we end up choosing for a bench spot, I don't know. I won't be upset if we do, but I won't be upset if we don't so long as we find an adequate replacement. One thing that can be said for him is that he does seem to thrive in Karl's system.
As to whether or not we ought to make the qualifying offer, I think our front office is going to have to gauge the free agency tides this year and see what kind of contracts are likely to be handed out. There's quite a bit of talk that teams will spend freely this offseason and "overpay" players in the expectation that the upcoming salary cap rise will make their contracts bargains in the near future. This will cut both ways. Perhaps D-Will will be one of the players that will get overpaid. Or perhaps he will be one of the players who will be left behind to be scooped up incredibly cheaply once everybody has capped themselves out. If he's the former and Karl wants him around, we should make the QO. If he's the latter, we should wait out the market. Figuring out which category he is likely to fall into is the job of people in our front office who are better at this than I am. If we intend to keep him, hopefully they make the right decision.
Thanks for the info re" the QO.
That said, I disagree with almost everything else you typed.
$4 million to DWill is $4 million not spent on someone who actually helps the team.
Every dunk DWill makes is given up by his defensive liabilities (especially rebounding).
Dwill is a below average NBA player, by the metrics I see at a quick glance (PER is 51 out of 74 "PF"s, ESPN rating is on page 6 out of 10).
Most importantly, the NBA is not a socialist economy - average players get paid below average, because the top performers get paid WAY more than average. Those high salaries are what drives the "average salary" WAY up - it's a misleading number, and any GM who is using it the way you are, I would call to the carpet for ignorance.
If a team fills their roster up with below average players getting paid anywhere near $5 million a year, they will lose.
Winning teams fill their season minutes with people making lots of money (or performing like those that do).
Overpaying DWill means you aren't using that money (let's say $2 million/yr) to overpay someone much better to play here. Get some "under-average" paid vet to come in at $1 to $2 mill, and they will perform equally to DWill, if not better.
His whole career has proven this so far, and Omri proved it this year.
That said, I disagree with almost everything else you typed.
$4 million to DWill is $4 million not spent on someone who actually helps the team.
Every dunk DWill makes is given up by his defensive liabilities (especially rebounding).
Dwill is a below average NBA player, by the metrics I see at a quick glance (PER is 51 out of 74 "PF"s, ESPN rating is on page 6 out of 10).
Most importantly, the NBA is not a socialist economy - average players get paid below average, because the top performers get paid WAY more than average. Those high salaries are what drives the "average salary" WAY up - it's a misleading number, and any GM who is using it the way you are, I would call to the carpet for ignorance.
If a team fills their roster up with below average players getting paid anywhere near $5 million a year, they will lose.
Winning teams fill their season minutes with people making lots of money (or performing like those that do).
Overpaying DWill means you aren't using that money (let's say $2 million/yr) to overpay someone much better to play here. Get some "under-average" paid vet to come in at $1 to $2 mill, and they will perform equally to DWill, if not better.
His whole career has proven this so far, and Omri proved it this year.
(For this post I'm going to use Win Shares as a reasonable one-number estimate of total contribution.)
Omri is the exception rather than the rule here. As a simple illustration, Omri put up over 1400 minutes and had 2.7 WinShares - a pretty good season. The list of players that signed last offseason for $2M or less per year and did better than D-Will in similar minutes (>1200 minutes, WS/48 > 2.1) is eight players long:
Tyler Zeller
Robert Covington
Aaron Brooks
Omri Casspi
Richard Jefferson
Rasual Butler
Alan Anderson
Joe Ingles
Two of these guys were undrafted rookies, so your pool of "under-average paid vets" who will sign for under $2M and will outperform D-Will's last season is on the order of six players per year. But you also have to get lucky and figure out which six it is. We hit the jackpot last year with Omri, but again, exception, not rule.
The bottom line is that you're severely undervaluing how much on-court production you can get for your average tiny contract (e.g. $1-2M) these days. A simple league-wide calculation will say you should have expected to pay about $1.7M per Win Share last year (probably closer to $1.8M in '15-'16, $2.2M in '16-'17, $2.7M in '17-'18) which makes even D-Will a $3.5M player ($3.75M, $4.5M, $5.5M in future years). And getting super lucky on finding a veteran to sign a tiny contract that will outperform that happens to about 1 in 5 teams now, and it's only going to get harder as the salary cap goes up.
Omri is the exception rather than the rule here. As a simple illustration, Omri put up over 1400 minutes and had 2.7 WinShares - a pretty good season. The list of players that signed last offseason for $2M or less per year and did better than D-Will in similar minutes (>1200 minutes, WS/48 > 2.1) is eight players long:
Tyler Zeller
Robert Covington
Aaron Brooks
Omri Casspi
Richard Jefferson
Rasual Butler
Alan Anderson
Joe Ingles
Two of these guys were undrafted rookies, so your pool of "under-average paid vets" who will sign for under $2M and will outperform D-Will's last season is on the order of six players per year. But you also have to get lucky and figure out which six it is. We hit the jackpot last year with Omri, but again, exception, not rule.
The bottom line is that you're severely undervaluing how much on-court production you can get for your average tiny contract (e.g. $1-2M) these days. A simple league-wide calculation will say you should have expected to pay about $1.7M per Win Share last year (probably closer to $1.8M in '15-'16, $2.2M in '16-'17, $2.7M in '17-'18) which makes even D-Will a $3.5M player ($3.75M, $4.5M, $5.5M in future years). And getting super lucky on finding a veteran to sign a tiny contract that will outperform that happens to about 1 in 5 teams now, and it's only going to get harder as the salary cap goes up.
All non-boxscore advanced stats treat Williams' season in Sacramento as being just a notch above Sessions and Stauskas. Derrick Williams, who spent half his time at PF, had 4 blocks this season. Guys with (>1200 minutes, blocks < 5)? Caron Butler, Kevin Martin, Matthew Dellavedova, Dennis Shroeder.
Boogie, Rudy, DC, starting SG, starting PF, Omri, JT, Ben, 'Dre, 6th pick - if Kings are able to swing all other resources for a "starting SG, starting PF" pair, I'm not sure, that Kings really need a capable SF/PF as 11th/12th player for non-min money.
Boogie, Rudy, DC, starting SG, starting PF, Omri, JT, Ben, 'Dre, 6th pick - if Kings are able to swing all other resources for a "starting SG, starting PF" pair, I'm not sure, that Kings really need a capable SF/PF as 11th/12th player for non-min money.
My problem with Derrick Williams is not about his contract.
Fact is that he showed absolutely NOTHING beside being an elite athlete/dunker during 3 years and a half.
4 million or 8 million, I don't want to gamble on a player that waited the second half of his contract year to show that he can be valuable.
Fact is that he showed absolutely NOTHING beside being an elite athlete/dunker during 3 years and a half.
4 million or 8 million, I don't want to gamble on a player that waited the second half of his contract year to show that he can be valuable.
There really is no reason to bring back BOTH Casspi AND Williams and I don't think anyone would take Derick over Omri. That being said I can't help but think that that there are teams that might be interested in D Will and a 4 mill contract could be useful in trade scenario. If I am wrong and if there is no interest out there, it is not worth picking him just to wait and see. But I have little doubt D Will will be in the league next year, the question is do we need the 4 mill in cap space more than a 4 mill chip.
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a) He completes alley-oops lobs better than anybody the Kings have had since I've been a fan (Tariq Abdul Wahad is next).
b) Owner and GM love flash over substance.
QO gets extended. I won't even kick up a twitter pace-storm when it does. I've already accepted that he is a ticket seller or Vivek (or he thinks so anyway).
PS: I think one cause of friction between Pete and Malone was Derrick Williams minutes.
b) Owner and GM love flash over substance.
QO gets extended. I won't even kick up a twitter pace-storm when it does. I've already accepted that he is a ticket seller or Vivek (or he thinks so anyway).
PS: I think one cause of friction between Pete and Malone was Derrick Williams minutes.
Hell yeah it is! We could use that money to sweeten a contract this offseason, (since Sacramento usually has to overpay to get free agents), and, even with a 4 million contract, we still have to have someone to take DWill and his contract. I'd rather not be dependent upon someone else wanting that extra 4 million in the form of DWill to make things work.
I'm curious, where are you getting that figure? Every site I go to, including Shamsports, which is usually on target, has his qualifying offer at 8.2 mil, and worse yet, his cap hold is at 12. 6 mil. So where did you come up with that figure. I've never seen a players qualifying offer that was less than his previous salary, which 4 mil would be, considering he was making 6 mil this past season. Regardless of that, there's no way I offer him even 4 mil as a qualifying offer, because he'll take it, and if he doesn't, and drags the whole thing out for a month or so, your stuck having to deal with the cap hold which eats up most of the cap money you have to work with. Although he played better under Karl, he's just not worth that kind of headache. Cut him loose to be an unrestricted freeagent, offer him the league minimum, and if he turns it down, wave goodbye.
Sham hasn't updated in nearly a year and still has Jason Terry and Travis Outlaw on our team - I think it's dead.
In response to the QO figure, the value that most sites have is the default QO. However, there are additional regulations in the CBA (all laid out in the CBA FAQ) that put contingencies on QOs. For top-14 picks, the QO is contingent on the player meeting "starter criteria" in either year 4 or in the average of year 3 and year 4. Williams does not meet those criteria. As a result, his QO is changed to the value of the QO for the #15 pick by rule.
The cap hold, however, probably stands.
In response to the QO figure, the value that most sites have is the default QO. However, there are additional regulations in the CBA (all laid out in the CBA FAQ) that put contingencies on QOs. For top-14 picks, the QO is contingent on the player meeting "starter criteria" in either year 4 or in the average of year 3 and year 4. Williams does not meet those criteria. As a result, his QO is changed to the value of the QO for the #15 pick by rule.
The cap hold, however, probably stands.
Capt. Factorial's QO of 4M+ is correct after checking the CBA FAQ's myself. However, another provision of the CBA is that a team can renounce a free agent of any kind and his salary would not count against his team. So if the FO decides to let Williams walk, they could renounce their rights to him and not have a cap hold to deal with. They could still do a sign and trade with another team even though they renounced their rights. I'm not entering the debate about whether we should keep him or not. Let the FO decide that one.
Yes, but if we renounce his cap hold, we can't go over the salary cap to sign (or sign-and-trade) him. Which could be important.
Cap holds are weird, because they're incredibly restrictive yet incredibly volatile at the same time. They can be made to go away - poof! - at any moment with the wave of a magic wand. As such, teams typically don't renounce them until it is necessary or advantageous to do so. We could, for instance, keep Williams' cap hold intact while negotiating (and even coming to an agreement) with a free agent. Then we can just wave the magic wand and make the cap hold go away right before actually inking the contract. That way, if we don't find a free agent we can come to an agreement with, and then a team comes to us with an offer for a sign-and-trade, well, we've still got Williams' rights so we can make that deal instead.
Cap holds are weird, because they're incredibly restrictive yet incredibly volatile at the same time. They can be made to go away - poof! - at any moment with the wave of a magic wand. As such, teams typically don't renounce them until it is necessary or advantageous to do so. We could, for instance, keep Williams' cap hold intact while negotiating (and even coming to an agreement) with a free agent. Then we can just wave the magic wand and make the cap hold go away right before actually inking the contract. That way, if we don't find a free agent we can come to an agreement with, and then a team comes to us with an offer for a sign-and-trade, well, we've still got Williams' rights so we can make that deal instead.
Yeah, the option to renounce the rights is always there, unless the option is a player option, and that has nothing to do with restricted freeagency. If the Kings want him back, the only way that makes sense is to renounce our rights, make him an unrestricted freeagent, and then make him an offer that makes sense for the team. Personally, at this point, I'd just let him walk. He played better under Karl, but I have a hard time trusting him to continue down that path.