Buddy Hield - love him or hate him, sit him or play him (split)

[burekijogurt]

Sometimes I wonder if you even watch the games. No idea who was digging a hole? Are you even being serious? Your genius coach Walton himself alluded to the slow starts in 1st and 3rd. Your Wonderboy Fox said the same. The kings were down 12 in the first quarter before the bench evened it out. 3rd quarter, we fall behind by 10 in the first 3 minutes after starting down 1.

Just a note that the lineup that was finishing the game had Holmes instead of Giles compared to the lineups that started 1st and 3rd quarter when Toronto made their runs. The efficacy of these 2 different lineups was not the same. In addition Baze/Corey were subbed in for Bjelica/Bogdan towards the end of the game as situation permitted to go offense/defense.

My guess is that Holmes starts next game.

 

[VF21]

Interesting take on Buddy for sure. I made the same mistake with Peja back in the day then proceeded to watch a franchise struggle to fill that same position off an on for more than a decade. I'm just glad the league wasn't the shooters league back then that it is now. I can only imagine how untouchable a player like Peja could be now.

Are you comparing Buddy's performance (other than shooting) to Peja's??????

 

[mac]

Just a note that the lineup that was finishing the game had Holmes instead of Giles compared to the lineups that started 1st and 3rd quarter when Toronto made their runs. The efficacy of these 2 different lineups was not the same. In addition Baze/Corey were subbed in for Bjelica/Bogdan towards the end of the game as situation permitted to go offense/defense.

My guess is that Holmes starts next game.

Original point was that the 5 guys on that play (so Holmes instead of Giles basically) had earned the right to be there, and so needing a 3 it was justified to leave Buddy on the bench. I countered saying that the (as you pointed out sans Holmes) guys had dug a hole, it's not as if they were blemish-free to the extent that we shouldn't have put Buddy in.

 

[burekijogurt]

Original point was that the 5 guys on that play (so Holmes instead of Giles basically) had earned the right to be there, and so needing a 3 it was justified to leave Buddy on the bench. I countered saying that the (as you pointed out sans Holmes) guys had dug a hole, it's not as if they were blemish-free to the extent that we shouldn't have put Buddy in.

I understand the point you were making, but I think this needs to be looked at a lineup level not necessarily player level. That is, if you "punish" all the players that were in the lineup that did not work by not playing them, then you probably will put out a lineup that is not as good as the lineup we did put out at the end of that game.

edit: I'm talking about the last 6 minutes of the game, not necessarily the last play where we needed a 3. I would have put Buddy in for that play.

 

[mac]

I understand the point you were making, but I think this needs to be looked at a lineup level not necessarily player level. That is, if you "punish" all the players that were in the lineup that did not work by not playing them, then you probably will put out a lineup that is not as good as the lineup we did put out at the end of that game.

edit: I'm talking about the last 6 minutes of the game, not necessarily the last play where we needed a 3. I would have put Buddy in for that play.

Sure, I agree. The original point was only about the last play (what I was responding to suggested essentially punishing Buddy and rewarding the guys who were "getting it done" on the last play)

 

[SacTownKid]

Are you comparing Buddy's performance (other than shooting) to Peja's??????

I'm saying they are similar types of players in terms of how fans sometimes view them. Both had/have flaws that for some will override their positives but their shooting, well, has brought 3 point championship trophies to Sac for a reason.

 

[VF21]

I'm saying they are similar types of players in terms of how fans sometimes view them. Both had/have flaws that for many will override their positives but their shooting, well, has brought 3 point championship trophies to Sac for a reason.

Thanks for clarifying.

Peja did a lot more for this team than just winning a 3-point contest IMHO but that's a debate for a different thread

 

[SacTownKid]

Thanks for clarifying.

Peja did a lot more for this team than just winning a 3-point contest IMHO but that's a debate for a different thread

He did, and I think Buddy can as well.

 

[VF21]

He did, and I think Buddy can as well.

I wish he would.

One thing I remember? Peja was one of the few who could guard Dirk. Always made me smile.

 

[VF21]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1237577927174176769

 

[hrdboild]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1237577927174176769

Where's the line here between correlation and causation though? If Buddy moving to the bench had been the only lineup change between the two samples I think there'd be a stronger argument to be made that he's shooting the ball better now because he's in the second unit or that we're winning more games now because Bogdan has swapped mpg averages with Buddy. (it's not just starting roles that have changed, Bogdan is averaging more mpg than Buddy since the switch)...

But of those first 44 games, Fox missed 18 of them and everyone except Bjelica was clanking their threes for two months. Obviously getting our best player back is helping us win. And in general teams win more games when they make more of their shots. The only real debate here is whether Buddy could sustain his recent hot shooting if his minutes got bumped back up into the 30-40 per game range. Based on his career averages over 308 games I think the answer is most likely yes. 48% is flukey good but his 3pt average from 2017 to 2019 in a Kings uniform is 43% which is still elite.

 

[VF21]

Where's the line here between correlation and causation though? If Buddy moving to the bench had been the only lineup change between the two samples I think there'd be a stronger argument to be made that he's shooting the ball better now because he's in the second unit or that we're winning more games now because Bogdan has swapped mpg averages with Buddy. (it's not just starting roles that have changed, Bogdan is averaging more mpg than Buddy since the switch)...

But of those first 44 games, Fox missed 18 of them and everyone except Bjelica was clanking their threes for two months. Obviously getting our best player back is helping us win. And in general teams win more games when they make more of their shots. The only real debate here is whether Buddy could sustain his recent hot shooting if his minutes got bumped back up into the 30-40 per game range. Based on his career averages over 308 games I think the answer is most likely yes. 48% is flukey good but his 3pt average from 2017 to 2019 in a Kings uniform is 43% which is still elite.

Even if all of your suppositions are true, there's still the "oops" factor to be considered IMHO. His recent hot shooting doesn't mean much if it's coupled with poor decisions, abysmal defense, etc.

I have a question (and I honestly don't know the answer): How many times has the best shooter of the season been on the championship team? Yes, Buddy can shoot but he cannot do much else. My perception could be off, but I just don't think he is - in the literal sense of the word - a team player.

 

[mac]

Even if all of your suppositions are true, there's still the "oops" factor to be considered IMHO. His recent hot shooting doesn't mean much if it's coupled with poor decisions, abysmal defense, etc.

I have a question (and I honestly don't know the answer): How many times has the best shooter of the season been on the championship team? Yes, Buddy can shoot but he cannot do much else. My perception could be off, but I just don't think he is - in the literal sense of the word - a team player.

Your perception would be indeed off in my view, and I posted some stats to show this early in the thread. TLDR; while his defense is indeed subpar, he makes plays for others on the offensive end and is one of our best scorers. For your reference, he's fourth on the team in assists per game (3.1 vs Bogi 3.2), third in adjusted assist (which counts hockey assists and passes that lead to FTs) behind Fox and Cojo, fourth in potential assists etc. Point is the stats don't backup the perception you're alluding to that he just scores for himself/selfish etc. and not much else.

And more simply put, how can you say his hot shooting doesn't mean much? He has quite singlehandedly shot us back into many games this season. Do you remember the miracle Twolves comeback? Or recent Sixers game? You can't discount the value of that just because he turns the ball over twice a game.

 

[The_Jamal]

Even if all of your suppositions are true, there's still the "oops" factor to be considered IMHO. His recent hot shooting doesn't mean much if it's coupled with poor decisions, abysmal defense, etc.

I have a question (and I honestly don't know the answer): How many times has the best shooter of the season been on the championship team? Yes, Buddy can shoot but he cannot do much else. My perception could be off, but I just don't think he is - in the literal sense of the word - a team player.

Except Buddy isn't just a shooter; he's one of the more unique and effective scorers in the NBA today. Buddy Hield's scoring the last 2 years has only been repeated 38 times in NBA history. Buddy will join a list of 15 other players to have done it more than once if he finishes the year with the following numbers:

>=56% TS
>=39% 3pt
>= 5 3PA/game
>= 19.0 PPG

https://www.basketball-reference.co...ct&c5comp=gt&c6stat=ts_pct&order_by=pts_per_g

You'll notice some names on this list like Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Paul George, Reggie Miller. Not a bad list to be on eh?

And in terms of the turnovers... it's totally overblown. Yes, he makes incredibly dumb turnovers, but that's your eyes lying to you that he's much worse at turning the ball over than he actually is. In the grand scheme of things, they don't matter all that much:

For comparison, he has a 11.8% TOV rate this year and a 9.2% TOV rate the year prior. Bogdan Bogdanovic the "great protector of the basketball", has an 11.5% TOV rate this season and 11.0% TOV rate the year prior. If Buddy was such an atrocious ball-handler that turns it over every play, why are he and Bogdan essentially turning the ball over at the same rate?

 

[mac]

Except Buddy isn't just a shooter; he's one of the more unique and effective scorers in the NBA today. Buddy Hield's scoring the last 2 years has only been repeated 38 times in NBA history. Buddy will join a list of 15 other players to have done it more than once if he finishes the year with the following numbers:

>=56% TS
>=39% 3pt
>= 5 3PA/game
>= 19.0 PPG

https://www.basketball-reference.co...ct&c5comp=gt&c6stat=ts_pct&order_by=pts_per_g

You'll notice some names on this list like Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Paul George, Reggie Miller. Not a bad list to be on eh?

And in terms of the turnovers... it's totally overblown. Yes, he makes incredibly dumb turnovers, but that's your eyes lying to you that he's much worse at turning the ball over than he actually is. In the grand scheme of things, they don't matter all that much:

For comparison, he has a 11.8% TOV rate this year and a 9.2% TOV rate the year prior. Bogdan Bogdanovic the "great protector of the basketball", has an 11.5% TOV rate this season and 11.0% TOV rate the year prior. If Buddy was such an atrocious ball-handler that turns it over every play, why are he and Bogdan essentially turning the ball over at the same rate?

I will say this in the spirit of objectivity; Buddy does do things that may be disruptive to the offense but not show up as turnovers, e.g. bad passes that are still caught but out of rhythm (although the assist stats I mentioned suggest this is not a big deal). The concerns are definitely overblown though.

 

[VF21]

Except Buddy isn't just a shooter; he's one of the more unique and effective scorers in the NBA today. Buddy Hield's scoring the last 2 years has only been repeated 38 times in NBA history. Buddy will join a list of 15 other players to have done it more than once if he finishes the year with the following numbers:

>=56% TS
>=39% 3pt
>= 5 3PA/game
>= 19.0 PPG

https://www.basketball-reference.co...ct&c5comp=gt&c6stat=ts_pct&order_by=pts_per_g

You'll notice some names on this list like Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Paul George, Reggie Miller. Not a bad list to be on eh?

And in terms of the turnovers... it's totally overblown. Yes, he makes incredibly dumb turnovers, but that's your eYouyes lying to you that he's much worse at turning the ball over than he actually is. In the grand scheme of things, they don't matter all that much:

For comparison, he has a 11.8% TOV rate this year and a 9.2% TOV rate the year prior. Bogdan Bogdanovic the "great protector of the basketball", has an 11.5% TOV rate this season and 11.0% TOV rate the year prior. If Buddy was such an atrocious ball-handler that turns it over every play, why are he and Bogdan essentially turning the ball over at the same rate?

You can throw all the stats in the world at me, and it won't change my personal feeling and perception. Finding a way to lump Buddy into the same category as Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Paul George and Reggie Miller is interesting but not relevant. Buddy is NONE of those players and never will be. Those guys have/had complete games. Buddy doesn't.

I try and be objective but I don't feel confident when Buddy is on the floor that he'll be able to perform at a high level on both ends of the court. You talk about TOV but there's no way to assess the critical timing of turnovers.

I understand completely that some of you are completely sold on Hield and his value to the Kings. I truly wish I shared your enthusiasm. I just don't and I can't force it if it's not there.

Buddy doesn't always have his head in the game...and that's why IMHO he's on a short leash. I cheer for him but I fully understand I think why Walton gets so frustrated. Buddy is Francisco Garcia but with much more shooting ability.

 

[VF21]

I will say this in the spirit of objectivity; Buddy does do things that may be disruptive to the offense but not show up as turnovers, e.g. bad passes that are still caught but out of rhythm (although the assist stats I mentioned suggest this is not a big deal). The concerns are definitely overblown though.

Stats may suggest this is not a big deal but you cannot deny that there are times when momentum is lost by a bad pass, silly turnover, etc. that doesn't show up in the stat line.

I get that some of you think I'm picking on him. I'm not. I'm expressing my frustration in the same vein that some of you feel beyond frustrated with Bagley. Bottom line, though, is we all want the best for the Kings. We just see different routes to the goal.

 

[Joshoua]

Buddy averaging 45.7% from 3 and 100% FT post-all star. Need a 3? Walton be like screw that, he doesn't play defense and may turn the ball over.

I get what you’re saying but not playing defense and committing turnovers are cardinal sins in basketball

 

[The_Jamal]

You can throw all the stats in the world at me, and it won't change my personal feeling and perception. Finding a way to lump Buddy into the same category as Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Paul George and Reggie Miller is interesting but not relevant. Buddy is NONE of those players and never will be. Those guys have/had complete games. Buddy doesn't.

I try and be objective but I don't feel confident when Buddy is on the floor that he'll be able to perform at a high level on both ends of the court. You talk about TOV but there's no way to assess the critical timing of turnovers.

I understand completely that some of you are completely sold on Hield and his value to the Kings. I truly wish I shared your enthusiasm. I just don't and I can't force it if it's not there.

Buddy doesn't always have his head in the game...and that's why IMHO he's on a short leash. I cheer for him but I fully understand I think why Walton gets so frustrated. Buddy is Francisco Garcia but with much more shooting ability.

Unfortunately, not much we can talk about then if you believe this. I choose to base my assumptions and takes on players with stats that can be quantified or at least attempt to be quantified. There's a place for the eye test in player evaluation, but completely disregarding stats is intentionally keeping your head in the sand just so you can keep your own preconceived notions (like thinking Buddy and Cisco are even in the same ball-park of player). Similar goes for stat-heads who don't watch any film and just solely rely on numbers for player evaluation.

So i'll bow out here. No use in debating it further on my end with you since it'll just be talking to a brick wall on both sides. Like you said, we all care about the Kings playing well, just go about rooting for the team differently.

 

[mac]

I get what you’re saying but not playing defense and committing turnovers are cardinal sins in basketball

Sins which again, regardless of the validity of what you are saying, are not relevant in a situation out of a timeout where you have possession and are down 3.

 

[The_Jamal]

I will say this in the spirit of objectivity; Buddy does do things that may be disruptive to the offense but not show up as turnovers, e.g. bad passes that are still caught but out of rhythm (although the assist stats I mentioned suggest this is not a big deal). The concerns are definitely overblown though.

Sure, but because with Buddy it looks really bad, those passes stick out in our minds far more than when Bogi/Fox or Bjelly do it. How many dumb mistakes of Harry Giles do we just brush aside because we all love him as a player? I doubt anyone would ever have the time, but I expect if you charted every "dumb mistake" that the key rotation guys made over the course of the year, one guy wouldn't really stand out above the rest. Especially since Buddy's TOV rate isn't disastrously high or anything.

I say all this too with the caveat that I think Buddy is being grossly misused too much as a primary ball-handler. He needs to be in the Klay Thompson/Kyle Korver mold where a majority of his possessions is him coming off screens, catch and shoot situations and 1-dribble and shoot situations. Far too often is he caught at the end of the shot-clock where he's forced to create off the bounce; which is dumb. Klay Thompson's career looks significantly different if he was the primary shot-creator his whole career rather than being the recipient of playmakers.

 

[mac]

Sure, but because with Buddy it looks really bad, those passes stick out in our minds far more than when Bogi/Fox or Bjelly do it. How many dumb mistakes of Harry Giles do we just brush aside because we all love him as a player? I doubt anyone would ever have the time, but I expect if you charted every "dumb mistake" that the key rotation guys made over the course of the year, one guy wouldn't really stand out above the rest. Especially since Buddy's TOV rate isn't disastrously high or anything.

I say all this too with the caveat that I think Buddy is being grossly misused too much as a primary ball-handler. He needs to be in the Klay Thompson/Kyle Korver mold where a majority of his possessions is him coming off screens, catch and shoot situations and 1-dribble and shoot situations. Far too often is he caught at the end of the shot-clock where he's forced to create off the bounce; which is dumb. Klay Thompson's career looks significantly different if he was the primary shot-creator his whole career rather than being the recipient of playmakers.

So if I'm understanding you right, what you are suggesting is that it does not make sense to make a poor ball handler the guy initiating the offense in PnR and compound the issue by playing him with a backcourt mate who is not a perimeter threat or really any sort of offensive threat and one that defenses can sag off of?

 

[gilly420]

I just dont like the way Buddy has gone about his business this
year. The contract negotiations, wearing his emotions on his sleeve all the time, airing dirty laundry, etc. It all screams "me first" "team/winning second". I think he overestimates his own talent, and I would imagine it wears on the other players, Fox in particular.

 

[jellyfish]

Except Buddy isn't just a shooter; he's one of the more unique and effective scorers in the NBA today. Buddy Hield's scoring the last 2 years has only been repeated 38 times in NBA history. Buddy will join a list of 15 other players to have done it more than once if he finishes the year with the following numbers:

>=56% TS
>=39% 3pt
>= 5 3PA/game
>= 19.0 PPG

https://www.basketball-reference.co...ct&c5comp=gt&c6stat=ts_pct&order_by=pts_per_g

You'll notice some names on this list like Kevin Durant, Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, Ray Allen, Paul George, Reggie Miller. Not a bad list to be on eh?

And in terms of the turnovers... it's totally overblown. Yes, he makes incredibly dumb turnovers, but that's your eyes lying to you that he's much worse at turning the ball over than he actually is. In the grand scheme of things, they don't matter all that much:

For comparison, he has a 11.8% TOV rate this year and a 9.2% TOV rate the year prior. Bogdan Bogdanovic the "great protector of the basketball", has an 11.5% TOV rate this season and 11.0% TOV rate the year prior. If Buddy was such an atrocious ball-handler that turns it over every play, why are he and Bogdan essentially turning the ball over at the same rate?

Tim Hardaway Jr is putting up similar stats this season with slightly less points, so is TJ Warren both of whom I would take over Buddy.

TJ Warren
57% eFG
37.5 from 3
18.7ppg

I guess its time to start comparing Warren to all time greats as well by coming up with some random stats. Buddy is a solid piece don't get me wrong but with him limitation and big contract you can replace him with cheaper options and not lose much overall at all if fact you probably gain. Even a guy like Joe Harris might give you less points but is more efficient (high iq) and eats less of the pie contract wise

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Klay Thompson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Setting up an offense to manufacture shots for Klay is fine because he’s such a workhorse on the other end, and takes the opponent’s best perimeter player. Teammates respect the grind. Manufacturing shots for a terrible defender like Buddy is a great way to lose the locker room.

 

[Insomniacal Fan]

Klay Thompson is one of the best perimeter defenders in the league. Setting up an offense to manufacture shots for Klay is fine because he’s such a workhorse on the other end, and takes the opponent’s best perimeter player. Teammates respect the grind. Manufacturing shots for a terrible defender like Buddy is a great way to lose the locker room.

Losing is how the locker room gets lost.

 

[Livinthedream]

Bogi and Bjelica are terrible defenders as well. All but the most elite in the NBA, and there are only a handful, have flaws that you have to either accept or mask/hide, while you accentuate the things they're great at.

 

[midtowner]

I love Buddy - but he still has a lot of work to do. He can either learn from adversity this year or end up playing for his third team. It’s within his power and ability to be a core piece for this team. He could also be a distraction to winning. Ego is real.

 

[mac]

I love Buddy - but he still has a lot of work to do. He can either learn from adversity this year or end up playing for his third team. It’s within his power and ability to be a core piece for this team. He could also be a distraction to winning. Ego is real.

Not if Walton continues "coaching" him

 

[ppine]

By this point in the Kings' season, I believe the time to question every one of Walton's decisions is way past.
He gets the most out of his players. That is all we can ask.