Bagley progress and pending return

[BLNINJA #81]

I heard an interesting point on the radio that the tweener gap used to be between the 3 and 4 but now it has moved to the 4 and 5. I am worried that is squarely where Bagley sits.

He isn’t big enough or defensively aware enough to play the 5. He is getting pushed around and his awareness on defense to switch and cover is poor.

His shooting and passing ability aren’t strong enough to play the 4. He shot some ugly outside shots and his awareness on the pass is low.

Dedmon was supposed to address this issue by playing good defense and shooting outside.

There's a lot of truth to that, and he's right smack there unfortunately. Either he bulks up, or learns to shoot the lights out, otherwise he may not excel as we all hope he will in his career.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

Next year will be Bagley’s leap year. Year 5 (age 23/24) is when he goes supernova.

 

[midtowner]

There's a lot of truth to that, and he's right smack there unfortunately. Either he bulks up, or learns to shoot the lights out, otherwise he may not excel as we all hope he will in his career.

maybe he does both?

 

[L'Optimisme]

22 minutes 17 points 6 boards just sayin.

 

[Livinthedream]

22 minutes 17 points 6 boards just sayin.

This is while he's working through rust. Let that sink in.

 

[Kingster]

He's progressing nicely. Sure is good to see him on the floor.

 

[upinsmoke]

maybe he does both?

This is ideal.

 

[L'Optimisme]

There's a lot of truth to that, and he's right smack there unfortunately. Either he bulks up, or learns to shoot the lights out, otherwise he may not excel as we all hope he will in his career.

It'll be the shooting. You can already see his feathery touch around the basket and how it extends to 15-18. He absolutely has the talent to develop a three. He was so skilled in college and early NBA career he was virtually unstoppable around the basket even as a rookie, so had no need. Plus, this is where the game is going. Him with a 40% thee pt shot and Holmes dirty work around the basket is an absolutely deadly combo on offense. Screencap this.

 

[Livinthedream]

He's progressing nicely. Sure is good to see him on the floor.

He's also playing out of position. Listening to Jason Jones, he was saying the Kings like him as a 5 when they play small ball, but it's not his natural position. The coaching staff is in the process of teaching him how to play the 5 effectively. He also said that with Fox being out, they use Bjelica a lot to facilitate the offense. Once Fox comes back, the team will have more flexibility with how they play their bigs.

 

[Kingster]

He's also playing out of position. Listening to Jason Jones, he was saying the Kings like him as a 5 when they play small ball, but it's not his natural position. The coaching staff is in the process of teaching him how to play the 5 effectively. He also said that with Fox being out, they use Bjelica a lot to facilitate the offense. Once Fox comes back, the team will have more flexibility with how they play their bigs.

And Walton said he doesn't want him to play multiple positions right now. He has a lot to learn and that would just confuse the hell out of him to play more than one position right now. They have big plans for him playing several positions, which would include doing screen and rolls as the dribbler, but it's going to take time to get there. It should be fun watching him evolve.

 

[tyguy]

Bagley doesn't have the perimeter skills to be a modern 4. He either has to develop that skillset or be a "small ball center." That should have been clear way back before the nba draft....

 

[upinsmoke]

IMO he has to play the 5 to get the maximum return on him.

 

[dude12]

Bagley can score, he’s an elite talent. You figure out how to take advantage of his talent. you build around that talent.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Bagley doesn't have the perimeter skills to be a modern 4. He either has to develop that skillset or be a "small ball center." That should have been clear way back before the nba draft....

I have to differ with this take. One of the reasons that Bagley was so highly thought of in the draft was his mix of post and perimeter skill combined with his athleticism. Outside of poor court vision (which seems to be improving) and a weak off hand (not an uncommon deficit) his "modern 4" skills are all there. He shot 39.7% from the college three, he can handle, he can face up and drive, he's got the lateral quickness to guard even smaller players on the perimeter, the entire skill set is pretty much all there. He has to adapt it to the professional game, but most players have to.

The idea that Bagley's draft evaluation should have been "Small ball center without modern 4 skills" is silly.

 

[tyguy]

I have to differ with this take. One of the reasons that Bagley was so highly thought of in the draft was his mix of post and perimeter skill combined with his athleticism. Outside of poor court vision (which seems to be improving) and a weak off hand (not an uncommon deficit) his "modern 4" skills are all there. He shot 39.7% from the college three, he can handle, he can face up and drive, he's got the lateral quickness to guard even smaller players on the perimeter, the entire skill set is pretty much all there. He has to adapt it to the professional game, but most players have to.

The idea that Bagley's draft evaluation should have been "Small ball center without modern 4 skills" is silly.

He shot 39 % on a very small sample size from a shorter three point line and shot poorly from the freethrow line which is a better indicator of his shooting talent. Post scoring is not something you should draft anybody on because it's inefficient offense, and what perimeter skills are we talking about? He cant be a pick and roll ball handler, his shooting is questionable, and hes a poor passer. Facing up in the mid post and scoring with your back to the basket aren't high value skill sets in the modern nba.

 

[gunks]

I have to differ with this take. One of the reasons that Bagley was so highly thought of in the draft was his mix of post and perimeter skill combined with his athleticism. Outside of poor court vision (which seems to be improving) and a weak off hand (not an uncommon deficit) his "modern 4" skills are all there. He shot 39.7% from the college three, he can handle, he can face up and drive, he's got the lateral quickness to guard even smaller players on the perimeter, the entire skill set is pretty much all there. He has to adapt it to the professional game, but most players have to.

The idea that Bagley's draft evaluation should have been "Small ball center without modern 4 skills" is silly.

It'll probably be another 3 seasons before we can depend on any of that from Bagley, but I totally agree.

I'm more worried about his idiot father and the amount of time he's spent injured, but Bagley is going to be a monster if he develops properly.

 

[Sactown ExPat]

He shot 39 % on a very small sample size from a shorter three point line and shot poorly from the freethrow line which is a better indicator of his shooting talent. Post scoring is not something you should draft anybody on because it's inefficient offense, and what perimeter skills are we talking about? He cant be a pick and roll ball handler, his shooting is questionable, and hes a poor passer. Facing up in the mid post and scoring with your back to the basket aren't high value skill sets in the modern nba.

I don’t really want to debate the merits of the bolded. While I vehemently disagree, I’m sure there is a statistical model somewhere that points to this conclusion. More troubling is that any serious basketball fan would make this statement unironically. If scoring in the paint is somehow inefficient, the rules changes have clearly gone too far. Hopefully, the NBA realizes their error soon, and we can enjoy a refined post game from players like Bags, Ayton, and Jokic.

 

[Livinthedream]

I don’t really want to debate the merits of the bolded. While I vehemently disagree, I’m sure there is a statistical model somewhere that points to this conclusion. More troubling is that any serious basketball fan would make this statement unironically. If scoring in the paint is somehow inefficient, the rules changes have clearly gone too far. Hopefully, the NBA realizes their error soon, and we can enjoy a refined post game from players like Bags, Ayton, and Jokic.

The most ironic part of it all is that the "modern" NBA requires a dominant defensive big to make sure teams don't score those inefficient baskets in the paint.

 

[tyguy]

The most ironic part of it all is that the "modern" NBA requires a dominant defensive big to make sure teams don't score those inefficient baskets in the paint.

Field goal attempts in the paint aren’t inefficient.

 

[sactowndog]

I have to differ with this take. One of the reasons that Bagley was so highly thought of in the draft was his mix of post and perimeter skill combined with his athleticism. Outside of poor court vision (which seems to be improving) and a weak off hand (not an uncommon deficit) his "modern 4" skills are all there. He shot 39.7% from the college three, he can handle, he can face up and drive, he's got the lateral quickness to guard even smaller players on the perimeter, the entire skill set is pretty much all there. He has to adapt it to the professional game, but most players have to.

The idea that Bagley's draft evaluation should have been "Small ball center without modern 4 skills" is silly.

I was supportive of drafting Bagley but his shooting was always a question in draft evaluations. The better shooting Big was always JJJ.

The problem I see is Bagley’s D does not seem to have improved. He still looks clueless out there.

 

[sactowndog]

The most ironic part of it all is that the "modern" NBA requires a dominant defensive big to make sure teams don't score those inefficient baskets in the paint.

Depends where in the paint. Restricted zone versus near the free throw line are very different.

 

[jellyfish]

Did Bagley have an issue in college getting stripped when going up from taking a drop off pass near the rim? Happens to him more than all the other big combined just in the two games back it really stands out how often the ball get knocked out of his hands.

 

[tyguy]

I don’t really want to debate the merits of the bolded. While I vehemently disagree, I’m sure there is a statistical model somewhere that points to this conclusion. More troubling is that any serious basketball fan would make this statement unironically. If scoring in the paint is somehow inefficient, the rules changes have clearly gone too far. Hopefully, the NBA realizes their error soon, and we can enjoy a refined post game from players like Bags, Ayton, and Jokic.

The best scorer in the post last season was Joel Embiid at 1.05 points per possession, which is actually very good for a post up but inefficient overall. To put it into context of how bad that is. The 28th ranked offense last season was the suns at 1.058 points per possession. We only have to drop down to the 7th best post scorer to get under 1 point per possession.

https://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?sort=PPP&dir=1&SeasonYear=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=POSS*GE*3:GP*GE*55

The year before that Karl Anthony towns lead the league in post scoring efficiency at 1.02 and you only had to drop to the second most efficient post scorer to get under 1 point per possession. Historically the post up yields inefficient offense.

https://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?sort=PPP&dir=1&SeasonYear=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=POSS*GE*3:GP*GE*55

So again, drafting a post scoring big man that isn't a defensive anchor is a very poor use of draft capital. This was known way before Vlade even picked Bagley, and yet he did it anyway despite the mountains of evidence that said it was unlikely that he would be a big time impact player. Vlade essentially bet on green and left us all holding the bag.

 

[206Fan]

I know he's still recovering from his injury, but he's entering near empty stats territory... His scoring jacks up the flow of the offense. He doesn't pass the ball. He's really bad on defense.

I'd like to see more out of him.

 

[burekijogurt]

The best scorer in the post last season was Joel Embiid at 1.05 points per possession, which is actually very good for a post up but inefficient overall. To put it into context of how bad that is. The 28th ranked offense last season was the suns at 1.058 points per possession. We only have to drop down to the 7th best post scorer to get under 1 point per possession.

https://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?sort=PPP&dir=1&SeasonYear=2018-19&SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=POSS*GE*3:GP*GE*55

The year before that Karl Anthony towns lead the league in post scoring efficiency at 1.02 and you only had to drop to the second most efficient post scorer to get under 1 point per possession. Historically the post up yields inefficient offense.

https://stats.nba.com/players/playtype-post-up/?sort=PPP&dir=1&SeasonYear=2017-18&SeasonType=Regular Season&CF=POSS*GE*3:GP*GE*55

So again, drafting a post scoring big man that isn't a defensive anchor is a very poor use of draft capital. This was known way before Vlade even picked Bagley, and yet he did it anyway despite the mountains of evidence that said it was unlikely that he would be a big time impact player. Vlade essentially bet on green and left us all holding the bag.

not weighing in one way or another but just to clarify the stat, if the ball goes into Embiid in the post, he is doubled and kicks out to 3 point shooter, that is not counted in his points per possession right?

 

[tyguy]

not weighing in one way or another but just to clarify the stat, if the ball goes into Embiid in the post, he is doubled and kicks out to 3 point shooter, that is not counted in his points per possession right?

It doesn't, running the offense out of the post where you can kick it out for a three or pass to a cutter is very efficient offense. Creating a shot for yourself out of the post is generally inefficient. It becomes efficient if you can establish deep position under the basket, but that doesn't happen most of the time. It's inefficient because it mostly creates hooks and turnaround jump shots beyond 4 feet which is where efficiency drops off a cliff.

 

[Livinthedream]

It doesn't, running the offense out of the post where you can kick it out for a three or pass to a cutter is very efficient offense. Creating a shot for yourself out of the post is generally inefficient. It becomes efficient if you can establish deep position under the basket, but that doesn't happen most of the time. It's inefficient because it mostly creates hooks and turnaround jump shots beyond 4 feet which is where efficiency drops off a cliff.

This doesn't work if the post player isn't a threat to score from.......the post.

The game doesn't happen in a vaccum. Watch the pick and roll with Holmes vs Bagley. Holmes sets good screens, but his defender routinely leaves him to stop the ball handler, leading to an easy basket for him. When Bagley is in this situation, his defender is reluctant to leave him, which results in more attempts for the ballhandler (in the paint). Just looking at the numbers, it appears Holmes is just more efficient at scoring inside. But is he really? Or is he just left open more often? Is this not a form of "creating" a play for your teammates for Bagley?

Stats are fine, but you have to look behind the numbers.

 

[tyguy]

This doesn't work if the post player isn't a threat to score from.......the post.

The warriors did it a lot with non scorer draymond green... It's impossible to do when your post scoring big can't pass.

Draymond is a horrible scorer out of the post which im sure you probably already knew.

https://stats.nba.com/players/playt...egular Season&CF=PLAYER_NAME*E*draymond green

 

[bajaden]

And Walton said he doesn't want him to play multiple positions right now. He has a lot to learn and that would just confuse the hell out of him to play more than one position right now. They have big plans for him playing several positions, which would include doing screen and rolls as the dribbler, but it's going to take time to get there. It should be fun watching him evolve.

I think the difficult part will be on the defensive side of the ball. You have different decisions you have to make defensively at the five than you do at the four. Offensively, he'll just play his game. Not saying it won't be a little different, but the negative side won't be as great as it will on the defensive side. It will take some time. Last night the Hornets got him out of position over and over again. But hey, they had Holmes making mistakes as well.

 

[The_Jamal]

It doesn't, running the offense out of the post where you can kick it out for a three or pass to a cutter is very efficient offense. Creating a shot for yourself out of the post is generally inefficient. It becomes efficient if you can establish deep position under the basket, but that doesn't happen most of the time. It's inefficient because it mostly creates hooks and turnaround jump shots beyond 4 feet which is where efficiency drops off a cliff.

Especially since you rarely get 1 on 1 situations in the post and there's almost always someone collapsing on you when the big guys get the ball down deep. The real value of the post-up is exactly what you said. Embiid draws attention and collapses the defense around him and then kicking out to wide open shooters on the perimeter.