Bagley progress and pending return

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#91
Color me worried about what's going to happen when Bagley gets back. His defense is a huge concern. Especially in the pick and roll. I'm just hoping he's been learning from Holmes while watching on the bench because we need his offense but not at the cost of destroying the interior defense.
We've survived two months of Bjeli constantly getting beat on that end. It'll work out.
 
#92
We've survived two months of Bjeli constantly getting beat on that end. It'll work out.
Bjeli is light years ahead of Bagley on defense. It's not even a discussion up to this point. He gets beat due to his athletic inability but he's a smart defender and knows where he needs to be on the court. You'll see the difference when Bagley gets back. I'm hoping watching the game has taught him a few things because it'll be glaring compared to what we've seen for the last month if he hasn't improved.
 

Tetsujin

The Game Thread Dude
#93
Bjeli is light years ahead of Bagley on defense. It's not even a discussion up to this point. He gets beat due to his athletic inability but he's a smart defender and knows where he needs to be on the court. You'll see the difference when Bagley gets back. I'm hoping watching the game has taught him a few things because it'll be glaring compared to what we've seen for the last month if he hasn't improved.
Bjeli freelances more often than not (he does the Luka/Trae free safety-style thing) and is usually hidden on the other team's worst offensive 3/4/5 while the two stud defenders on either side of him handle the toughest matchup. By no means has Bjeli been awful but his production on that end is hardly irreplaceable.
 
#94
Color me worried about what's going to happen when Bagley gets back. His defense is a huge concern. Especially in the pick and roll. I'm just hoping he's been learning from Holmes while watching on the bench because we need his offense but not at the cost of destroying the interior defense.
Thing is, he certainly has the speed, quickness and athleticism to be a good defender and replicate how Richaun plays defense. So as you say, if he’s been watching and learning from the bench — and is truly motivated — he potentially could be less of a liability on that end.

I really believe MB3’s ability on the defensive end comes down to effort and desire. Does he want to develop into a good defender or not? If he does, there’s really no reason he can’t be. He’s got too much talent, athleticism and skill. He’s a bright kid too.
 
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#95
Color me worried about what's going to happen when Bagley gets back. His defense is a huge concern. Especially in the pick and roll. I'm just hoping he's been learning from Holmes while watching on the bench because we need his offense but not at the cost of destroying the interior defense.
Well if he plays poor defense, Walton will have no hesitation putting his butt on the bench.
 
#96
Bjeli freelances more often than not (he does the Luka/Trae free safety-style thing) and is usually hidden on the other team's worst offensive 3/4/5 while the two stud defenders on either side of him handle the toughest matchup. By no means has Bjeli been awful but his production on that end is hardly irreplaceable.
True but he does play good help defense. He is a much better defender than Luka.
 
#97
Luke will coach him up.

We just gotta be patient, because it'll probably be awhile before we see real improvement on the defensive end from Bagley, but in the meantime we can enjoy the double doubles.

I'm pretty excited to see Bagley back in action. Hopefully he hits the ground running!
 
Color me worried about what's going to happen when Bagley gets back. His defense is a huge concern. Especially in the pick and roll. I'm just hoping he's been learning from Holmes while watching on the bench because we need his offense but not at the cost of destroying the interior defense.
I think they may put Bagley on whomever is the weaker player at the 4/5 the other team fields to ease him in. The Kings have improved ppga, but at a cost to their ppg which really fell off. This was something I thought likely as a problem in the offseason - focusing on defense so much that there's too big a drop-off in offense. You may wonder the effect of the injuries - both of their injured players luckily will help the offense. There has to be good balance. Bagley *should* improve their scoring average at least an uptick over time - getting it closer to equal points against.

Last year they were 114.2 ppg vs 115.3 ppga through the season. This year through about 1/4 of the season they are 104.2 vs 107.6 - an actual net debit of more than 2 pts. This is a step back, and record-wise you can see why. They were going to focus on defense, so collectively they're accomplishing a goal - 7 points reduced....but their offense has lost 10 pts on average.....just too much They've had some good offensive games and wins, but they are still suffering much from scoring droughts and turnovers. Bogdan had a bit of resurgence, but has fallen off some unfortunately the last few games. They need more interior scoring, and Bagley will certainly help. If they can up their ppg 2 -3 ppg without losing their defensive average much just 0-1 ppga, they will be winning more games on average.

Meanwhile in the division, the Suns are falling off and the Warriors have nose dived already thanks to massive roster injuries. Luckily for the Kings they pulled out of their own nosedive, but still have to get above .500 at least. Annoying to see the Lakers sprint out of the gates, but they got a good pasting yesterday from the Mavericks satisfyingly.
 
Bjeli freelances more often than not (he does the Luka/Trae free safety-style thing) and is usually hidden on the other team's worst offensive 3/4/5 while the two stud defenders on either side of him handle the toughest matchup. By no means has Bjeli been awful but his production on that end is hardly irreplaceable.
Of course his defense isn't irreplaceable. I'm talking about it being replaced by the worst defensive big man on the team up until this point.

Thing is, he certainly has the speed, quickness and athleticism to be a good defender and replicate how Richaun plays defense. So as you say, if he’s been watching and learning from the bench — and is truly motivated — he potentially could be less of a liability on that end.

I really believe MB3’s ability on the defensive end comes down to effort and desire. Does he want to develop into a good defender or not? If he does, there’s really no reason he can’t be. He’s got too much talent, athleticism and skill. He’s a bright kid too.
To me, it's all between the ears. Bagley puts in the effort on the defensive end, just like Buddy does. So far, he's been way behind the 8 ball. Most rookies don't play great defense anyway but Bagley was way behind most rookie big men defensively out of the gate. Even Giles, with all his foul trouble, was still 3x the defender Bagley was last year. We will see when he gets back. He made a huge leap offensively last year from summer league to the regular season so maybe he can do the same thing defensively this year.

His defense on the perimeter is pretty decent but he gets absolutely abused when playing the 5. He will block a shot here and there but he's a revolving door in the pick and roll. I'm just hoping he can at least get to average quick, otherwise you gotta leave Bjelica out there if you want a chance to make the playoffs.
 
I'm curious if Walton has had Bagley practicing with the team, not in full-on contact scrimmages, but in walk-throughs that the coach uses to teach his players how to play defense in multiple situations. Granted, a walk-through isn't the same as a contact scrimmage, much less a game, but it seems to me that it would give Bagley a head start when he's cleared to scrimmage in practice and play in a game. A lot of defense consists of mental habits, knowing when to cover for whom and how to play against certain situations, such as a pick and roll. If a player mentally rehearses these situations over and over again, it should help him out considerably when he finally does start practicing and playing for real.

I think Bagley's defensive limitations are exaggerated. For one thing, he's the best rebounder on the team. Defensive rebounding is part of defense. So if you start from that premise, then add his shot blocking around the basket, it's not like he's going to make the Kings' defense a sieve when he comes back. Remember, last year Bagley was a difference maker on this team. It's not even arguable. When he was playing, the Kings played better and were winning games. When he was out, they took a big step down. We'll have to revisit this theme of "Bagley's defensive inadequacies" at the beginning of the New Year. Maybe I'll be eating crow, but I'm not getting out my crow-eating cutlery just yet.
 
I'm curious if Walton has had Bagley practicing with the team, not in full-on contact scrimmages, but in walk-throughs that the coach uses to teach his players how to play defense in multiple situations. Granted, a walk-through isn't the same as a contact scrimmage, much less a game, but it seems to me that it would give Bagley a head start when he's cleared to scrimmage in practice and play in a game. A lot of defense consists of mental habits, knowing when to cover for whom and how to play against certain situations, such as a pick and roll. If a player mentally rehearses these situations over and over again, it should help him out considerably when he finally does start practicing and playing for real.

I think Bagley's defensive limitations are exaggerated. For one thing, he's the best rebounder on the team. Defensive rebounding is part of defense. So if you start from that premise, then add his shot blocking around the basket, it's not like he's going to make the Kings' defense a sieve when he comes back. Remember, last year Bagley was a difference maker on this team. It's not even arguable. When he was playing, the Kings played better and were winning games. When he was out, they took a big step down. We'll have to revisit this theme of "Bagley's defensive inadequacies" at the beginning of the New Year. Maybe I'll be eating crow, but I'm not getting out my crow-eating cutlery just yet.
Good post. I would even argue to give him a full 20 games to evaluate his improvement overall.
 
I think they may put Bagley on whomever is the weaker player at the 4/5 the other team fields to ease him in. The Kings have improved ppga, but at a cost to their ppg which really fell off. This was something I thought likely as a problem in the offseason - focusing on defense so much that there's too big a drop-off in offense. You may wonder the effect of the injuries - both of their injured players luckily will help the offense. There has to be good balance. Bagley *should* improve their scoring average at least an uptick over time - getting it closer to equal points against.

Last year they were 114.2 ppg vs 115.3 ppga through the season. This year through about 1/4 of the season they are 104.2 vs 107.6 - an actual net debit of more than 2 pts. This is a step back, and record-wise you can see why. They were going to focus on defense, so collectively they're accomplishing a goal - 7 points reduced....but their offense has lost 10 pts on average.....just too much They've had some good offensive games and wins, but they are still suffering much from scoring droughts and turnovers. Bogdan had a bit of resurgence, but has fallen off some unfortunately the last few games. They need more interior scoring, and Bagley will certainly help. If they can up their ppg 2 -3 ppg without losing their defensive average much just 0-1 ppga, they will be winning more games on average.

Meanwhile in the division, the Suns are falling off and the Warriors have nose dived already thanks to massive roster injuries. Luckily for the Kings they pulled out of their own nosedive, but still have to get above .500 at least. Annoying to see the Lakers sprint out of the gates, but they got a good pasting yesterday from the Mavericks satisfyingly.
You just have to keep him out of the 5 spot. If he's playing the 5, you'll get an uptick in offensive PPG but you'll probably get a bigger rise in defensive PPG due to his inability to guard the pick and roll. Teams exploit it most of the time when he's playing the 5 because he almost always makes the wrong decision.

We also have to think about who he fits with offensively. Ideally, Bjelica at the 4 and Bagley at the 5 works the best offensively but that's our worst defensive pairing. Holmes/Dedmon at the 5 with Bagley at the 4 is the best for defense with Bagley out there but now it packs the paint. Bagley would have to become an adequate 3 point shooter in order to make it work. If he's out there shooting even 33%, that's not going to cut it. Especially with how hot and cold our good shooters have been in Buddy/Bogie.

It'll be interesting to see how Walton manages it. If Bagley has improved on defense, then in my opinion it would be an easy decision because I'd just have him take Dedmon's minutes and then make him prove that he's better than Bjeli and/or Holmes if he wants more minutes.
 
Bagley would have to become an adequate 3 point shooter in order to make it work. If he's out there shooting even 33%, that's not going to cut it. Especially with how hot and cold our good shooters have been in Buddy/Bogie.
What percentage from 3 does Marvin have to have to be of value to this team? Buddy, Barnes, Bogi all shooting around 37% and they're considered really good shooters.

Also, Marvin having to make up for what Buddy and Bogdan aren't doing is pretty unrealistic and unfair. As I pointed out in the Denver game thread, Walton made an adjustment for poor 3pt shooting. He pulled Holmes out to the 3pt line and gave the paint to Barnes to get easier attempts and draw fouls.
 
What percentage from 3 does Marvin have to have to be of value to this team? Buddy, Barnes, Bogi all shooting around 37% and they're considered really good shooters.

Also, Marvin having to make up for what Buddy and Bogdan aren't doing is pretty unrealistic and unfair. As I pointed out in the Denver game thread, Walton made an adjustment for poor 3pt shooting. He pulled Holmes out to the 3pt line and gave the paint to Barnes to get easier attempts and draw fouls.
I never said Marvin had to make up for Buddy and Bogie. He has to make up for his own lack of defense. Buddy hasn't been nearly as effective this year as he was last year because 37% from 3 doesn't make up for his turnovers and bad defense. Bogie's advanced stats are better because his defense isn't quite as bad and he makes plays for others. Every player has to make up for what they're bad at and Bagley is no different.
 
What percentage from 3 does Marvin have to have to be of value to this team? Buddy, Barnes, Bogi all shooting around 37% and they're considered really good shooters.

Also, Marvin having to make up for what Buddy and Bogdan aren't doing is pretty unrealistic and unfair. As I pointed out in the Denver game thread, Walton made an adjustment for poor 3pt shooting. He pulled Holmes out to the 3pt line and gave the paint to Barnes to get easier attempts and draw fouls.
On a side note, I want to see Holmes try some 3's. I remember he was starting to get that down early in his career. Can you imagine if Holmes got a few comfortable spot shots down? I thought he was going to be a David West type early on but he's become more of a Montrez type. Which ain't a bad thing but this dude has even more inside there somewhere.
 
On a side note, I want to see Holmes try some 3's. I remember he was starting to get that down early in his career. Can you imagine if Holmes got a few comfortable spot shots down? I thought he was going to be a David West type early on but he's become more of a Montrez type. Which ain't a bad thing but this dude has even more inside there somewhere.
I keep looking at him and thinking there is a lot more offensive potential in there than what we've been seeing.
 
James Ham just tweeted that Bagley will be re-evaluated at the end of this week. Also that Fox would be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks. I think this is based on a Medical Update from the Kings org.
 
On a side note, I want to see Holmes try some 3's. I remember he was starting to get that down early in his career. Can you imagine if Holmes got a few comfortable spot shots down? I thought he was going to be a David West type early on but he's become more of a Montrez type. Which ain't a bad thing but this dude has even more inside there somewhere.
He's shooting very well from the FT line at 76.3% (career average is 71.1%) so he does have some touch shooting the ball.

He does have that 1 anomaly season where he shot 35.1% from 3 (only on 77 attempts though). Looking further at this, 74 of those 77 attempts were when the defender was 6+ feet away. Meaning he wasn't taking the 3 unless he was WIDE open. Looking at his shooting form on free throws, I would venture to guess that he has a pretty slow release which is why he's only taking shots when he is WIDE open.

The other thing to keep in mind is that in a PnR, you want him rolling the basket. He is effective as a roll man. He averaged 1.26 PPP last year (81.9 percentile) and he is averaging 1.11 PPP this year (51.8 percentile). However, I would be interested to see him take some 3s out on the perimeter if they are doing a PnR with Bagley (for example) which results in Holmes being WIDE open.

I'm interested to see how Walton makes it work offensively with Fox, Bagley, & Holmes on the floor at the same time. None of those guys are consistent from three (yet). When you have three good/great 3pt shooters on the floor, spacing can work (Hield/Bogdanovic, Barnes, & Bjelica). When you only have two (Hield/Bogdanovic & Barnes), that's when the floor starts to shrink.
 
He's shooting very well from the FT line at 76.3% (career average is 71.1%) so he does have some touch shooting the ball.

He does have that 1 anomaly season where he shot 35.1% from 3 (only on 77 attempts though). Looking further at this, 74 of those 77 attempts were when the defender was 6+ feet away. Meaning he wasn't taking the 3 unless he was WIDE open. Looking at his shooting form on free throws, I would venture to guess that he has a pretty slow release which is why he's only taking shots when he is WIDE open.

The other thing to keep in mind is that in a PnR, you want him rolling the basket. He is effective as a roll man. He averaged 1.26 PPP last year (81.9 percentile) and he is averaging 1.11 PPP this year (51.8 percentile). However, I would be interested to see him take some 3s out on the perimeter if they are doing a PnR with Bagley (for example) which results in Holmes being WIDE open.

I'm interested to see how Walton makes it work offensively with Fox, Bagley, & Holmes on the floor at the same time. None of those guys are consistent from three (yet). When you have three good/great 3pt shooters on the floor, spacing can work (Hield/Bogdanovic, Barnes, & Bjelica). When you only have two (Hield/Bogdanovic & Barnes), that's when the floor starts to shrink.
Hmmm... thanks for the numbers. I'd say teams are playing at least that far off of him now. At the end of last game and in the few games prior teams started to pack the paint on the guards and used Holmes to do it. Obviously you don't want him sitting at the 3 point line but just a few mic checks on the D to keep them honest is worth a shot I think.
 
On a side note, I want to see Holmes try some 3's. I remember he was starting to get that down early in his career. Can you imagine if Holmes got a few comfortable spot shots down? I thought he was going to be a David West type early on but he's become more of a Montrez type. Which ain't a bad thing but this dude has even more inside there somewhere.
I'm curious to see if he can even shoot remotely decent from the corner. I've yet to see him use a shooting stroke in a game outside of free throws.

Remember Koufos was nailing 3s in college at a 35% clip and fast forward a few years and he wasn't capable of doing anything other than shot putting the ball in from the paint. Hopefully Richaun hasn't lost it the way Koufos did. His free throw percentage tells me he may not have.
 
Hmmm... thanks for the numbers. I'd say teams are playing at least that far off of him now. At the end of last game and in the few games prior teams started to pack the paint on the guards and used Holmes to do it. Obviously you don't want him sitting at the 3 point line but just a few mic checks on the D to keep them honest is worth a shot I think.
When you say “teams are playing at least that far off of him now,” are you referring to Holmes’ man sags 6+ feet off of him? If so, that’s different from what I provided. I believe NBA.com’s stat is telling us that at the time Holmes releases the ball, the closest defender is 6+ feet away. If a player is sagging off his man by 6+ feet he theoretically should be able to close out on his man before he shoots.

You may already understand my post above but just thought I’d clarify.
 
When you say “teams are playing at least that far off of him now,” are you referring to Holmes’ man sags 6+ feet off of him? If so, that’s different from what I provided. I believe NBA.com’s stat is telling us that at the time Holmes releases the ball, the closest defender is 6+ feet away. If a player is sagging off his man by 6+ feet he theoretically should be able to close out on his man before he shoots.

You may already understand my post above but just thought I’d clarify.
They are playing probably closer to 10 feet off of him at times. No doubt he'll have plenty of room which is the point.
 
James Ham just tweeted that Bagley will be re-evaluated at the end of this week. Also that Fox would be re-evaluated in 2-3 weeks. I think this is based on a Medical Update from the Kings org.
Didn’t they say that when he first got hurt? Alert me when he’s getting cleared to play, please lol our training staff is ... Whew, interesting to say the least