Anyone upset they could have had Knight?
- Thread starter RookieOfTheDay
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When I read that article, I sense reluctance on Knight's behalf in wanting to work out in Sacramento. He saw Sacramento as the very bottom for him, so might as well go work out for the team. He also expressed uncertainty in being able to fit with Evans:
"As long as I could come in and be able to run a team," he said of his willingness to play for the Kings. "I'm not sure how it would work with Tyreke, but I'm pretty sure we could play together. I just want to come in and fit in wherever I go."
He also wants to "run the team." Again, not sure if that's exactly what mgmt. was looking for. Plenty of positives in the article as stated, but also some flags if you're willing to read between the lines.
"As long as I could come in and be able to run a team," he said of his willingness to play for the Kings. "I'm not sure how it would work with Tyreke, but I'm pretty sure we could play together. I just want to come in and fit in wherever I go."
He also wants to "run the team." Again, not sure if that's exactly what mgmt. was looking for. Plenty of positives in the article as stated, but also some flags if you're willing to read between the lines.
Well I said I would do Sam Presti, so that's as good a place to start as any:
Hits:
(2008) Russell Westbrook
(2008) Serge Ibaka
(2007) Kevin Durant
Just like Petrie with DeMarcus Cousins, I don't give Presti a ton of credit for the obvious pick of Kevin Durant at 2nd overall in 2007. But it was a hit nonetheless and should also be counted like I counted Cousins. Westbrook so far looks like the second best player from his draft class and he was considered a reach at #4 by a lot of people. That's a more significant hit.
Those two were top 5 picks, but Serge Ibaka was a late first rounder and has outperformed most of his draft class so far. There's a chance he moves down to the neither category if his career plateaus, but right now he certainly looks like a hit as a key contributer on a winning playoff team in only his second season. That's three hits, two of them big hits.
Misses:
(2008) DJ White
In 2008 Presti also traded up into a late first round pick to take DJ White who played limited minutes off the bench for two years before being traded to Charlotte for the ghost of Nazr Muhammad. He's actually been pretty productive statistically, but considering Oklahoma City got little value for him, I'm calling him a bust at this point.
Neither:
(2010) Cole Aldrich
(2009) James Harden
(2009) BJ Mullens
(2007) Jeff Green
Presti followed up his big successes in drafts 1 and 2 by shuffling lots of picks to take project centers in drafts 3 and 4 of his tenure. BJ Mullens was a raw freshman from Ohio State who's probably a couple years away from making an impact. Aldrich came in with a stronger track record after two strong seasons as a defensive anchor at Kansas (he was just a bit player as a freshman). It's tempting to label Aldrich a bust with how little impact he made last year, but he was asked to step in and help a playoff team defensively which is hard to do as a rookie. It's too early to say with either of these guys.
James Harden is a borderline hit. I put him in the neither category right now because Presti passed on Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry who've been better players so far, though neither would have been as good of a fit. This pick could eventually be considered a hit if Harden continues his upward trajectory.
Jeff Green is an interesting pick. He hasn't had a disappointing career so far, especially in comparison to the rest of his draft class, but he's been overshadowed by the two All Stars he was teamed up with. Presti did pass on two players, Joakim Noah and Marc Gasol, who would have filled a big need for the team but he was able to trade Green after three years to fill that need with Kendrick Perkins. At this point I would call Jeff Green an average pick, but it's early on in his career and he could be considered a hit eventually.
For only four years on the job, Presti has so far put together 3 hits, though one of them is borderline. The only bust I credited him for is borderline also and he gets a break on Aldrich and Mullens who were longterm picks and haven't had time to develop yet. All of this is pretty meaningless in context because 4 of these guys are top 5 picks which would bump up most GMs resume and it's too early in their careers to definitively put any of them in one category or another. To his credit he hasn't wasted a top 5 pick on a bust though. He also turned a mid first round pick in 2010 (Eric Bledsoe) into a future first from the Clippers. Oklahoma City was one of the best teams in the league last year and if you look at their roster, most of their key players came through the draft.
What impresses me about the job Presti has done is that he's made transactions almost every single year which made the team better. He's managed to acquire 10 first round picks in only 5 years (counting Reggie Jackson taken in this year's draft) and he's still plus one with a future pick coming from the Clippers. By stockpiling extra picks he was able to trade up for the guy he wanted last year in Cole Aldrich. Eric Bledsoe had a pretty good rookie season for the Clippers but he would have been buried on the bench in Oklahoma City and the Clippers pick could end up being a lottery pick next year. From 2007 to now, I don't think anyone in the league has done a better job in the draft over that time period.
Hits:
(2008) Russell Westbrook
(2008) Serge Ibaka
(2007) Kevin Durant
Just like Petrie with DeMarcus Cousins, I don't give Presti a ton of credit for the obvious pick of Kevin Durant at 2nd overall in 2007. But it was a hit nonetheless and should also be counted like I counted Cousins. Westbrook so far looks like the second best player from his draft class and he was considered a reach at #4 by a lot of people. That's a more significant hit.
Those two were top 5 picks, but Serge Ibaka was a late first rounder and has outperformed most of his draft class so far. There's a chance he moves down to the neither category if his career plateaus, but right now he certainly looks like a hit as a key contributer on a winning playoff team in only his second season. That's three hits, two of them big hits.
Misses:
(2008) DJ White
In 2008 Presti also traded up into a late first round pick to take DJ White who played limited minutes off the bench for two years before being traded to Charlotte for the ghost of Nazr Muhammad. He's actually been pretty productive statistically, but considering Oklahoma City got little value for him, I'm calling him a bust at this point.
Neither:
(2010) Cole Aldrich
(2009) James Harden
(2009) BJ Mullens
(2007) Jeff Green
Presti followed up his big successes in drafts 1 and 2 by shuffling lots of picks to take project centers in drafts 3 and 4 of his tenure. BJ Mullens was a raw freshman from Ohio State who's probably a couple years away from making an impact. Aldrich came in with a stronger track record after two strong seasons as a defensive anchor at Kansas (he was just a bit player as a freshman). It's tempting to label Aldrich a bust with how little impact he made last year, but he was asked to step in and help a playoff team defensively which is hard to do as a rookie. It's too early to say with either of these guys.
James Harden is a borderline hit. I put him in the neither category right now because Presti passed on Tyreke Evans and Stephen Curry who've been better players so far, though neither would have been as good of a fit. This pick could eventually be considered a hit if Harden continues his upward trajectory.
Jeff Green is an interesting pick. He hasn't had a disappointing career so far, especially in comparison to the rest of his draft class, but he's been overshadowed by the two All Stars he was teamed up with. Presti did pass on two players, Joakim Noah and Marc Gasol, who would have filled a big need for the team but he was able to trade Green after three years to fill that need with Kendrick Perkins. At this point I would call Jeff Green an average pick, but it's early on in his career and he could be considered a hit eventually.
For only four years on the job, Presti has so far put together 3 hits, though one of them is borderline. The only bust I credited him for is borderline also and he gets a break on Aldrich and Mullens who were longterm picks and haven't had time to develop yet. All of this is pretty meaningless in context because 4 of these guys are top 5 picks which would bump up most GMs resume and it's too early in their careers to definitively put any of them in one category or another. To his credit he hasn't wasted a top 5 pick on a bust though. He also turned a mid first round pick in 2010 (Eric Bledsoe) into a future first from the Clippers. Oklahoma City was one of the best teams in the league last year and if you look at their roster, most of their key players came through the draft.
What impresses me about the job Presti has done is that he's made transactions almost every single year which made the team better. He's managed to acquire 10 first round picks in only 5 years (counting Reggie Jackson taken in this year's draft) and he's still plus one with a future pick coming from the Clippers. By stockpiling extra picks he was able to trade up for the guy he wanted last year in Cole Aldrich. Eric Bledsoe had a pretty good rookie season for the Clippers but he would have been buried on the bench in Oklahoma City and the Clippers pick could end up being a lottery pick next year. From 2007 to now, I don't think anyone in the league has done a better job in the draft over that time period.
Didn't do the whole block to save space, but Presti will be tought to really judge since we are going into his 5th year.
But I think you are being much more lenient on his choices than Petrie.
Ibaka by your earlier standards would still be in the Neither section. Hedo was a key contributor on our '02 team, won a ring with the Spurs and was the second best player on a Magic team that went to the finals. Ibaka has potential. But as of now he's a complementary role player.
Maybe Green stays in neither, but he's pretty bad for a #5 pick. He's a "stretch PF" who's a 33% career three point shooter. He plays mediocre D. And has a career high of 6.7 rebounds per game.
Here's where Presti is tough. His track record is so small, you're still able to list people like Mullent and Aldrich as Neither, instead of busts. It's hard to label anyone a bust after so little time. But Mullens had been in the league 2 years for a team that needed size. He has struggled to earn any minutes and has a career high PER of 3.5. Odds are he winds up in the bust category. Ditto with Aldrich. Way to early to call anything with him. But when you trade up for a big and he spends most of the year in the D-league and then averages 1 point and 2 rebounds a game, it's not a promising start.
And while he only has 4 drafts where the players have gotten to play, Presti has already passed on Noah, Afflalo, Aaron Brooks, Marc Gasol, Tryeke Evans, Curry, Holliday, Blair, and Thornton. He also traded away Landry, Roddy B and Bledsoe while he has no low post scorer and was forced to draft Reggie Jackson this season since he doesn't trust Maynor.
This isn't meant to criticize Maynor. But to show for even for someone with a short track record, you get average players more often than not when you are drafting outside of the top few picks (notice both Presti's hits were 2 and 4 in the draft). And every single GM has passed on players who have gone onto be very good. It's easy to make someone look bad by pointing out all of the players they didn't select who might be better than a player they took. The fact that you can field useful players from the draft and use it as a tool to construct a winning team is what counts. '
Presti has done this. We have been in the process and have put together nice pieces. Now this season is the third year and we'll need to see some results. That is what Petrie should be judged on. And he will be. One way or another.
But I think you are being much more lenient on his choices than Petrie.
Ibaka by your earlier standards would still be in the Neither section. Hedo was a key contributor on our '02 team, won a ring with the Spurs and was the second best player on a Magic team that went to the finals. Ibaka has potential. But as of now he's a complementary role player.
Maybe Green stays in neither, but he's pretty bad for a #5 pick. He's a "stretch PF" who's a 33% career three point shooter. He plays mediocre D. And has a career high of 6.7 rebounds per game.
Here's where Presti is tough. His track record is so small, you're still able to list people like Mullent and Aldrich as Neither, instead of busts. It's hard to label anyone a bust after so little time. But Mullens had been in the league 2 years for a team that needed size. He has struggled to earn any minutes and has a career high PER of 3.5. Odds are he winds up in the bust category. Ditto with Aldrich. Way to early to call anything with him. But when you trade up for a big and he spends most of the year in the D-league and then averages 1 point and 2 rebounds a game, it's not a promising start.
And while he only has 4 drafts where the players have gotten to play, Presti has already passed on Noah, Afflalo, Aaron Brooks, Marc Gasol, Tryeke Evans, Curry, Holliday, Blair, and Thornton. He also traded away Landry, Roddy B and Bledsoe while he has no low post scorer and was forced to draft Reggie Jackson this season since he doesn't trust Maynor.
This isn't meant to criticize Maynor. But to show for even for someone with a short track record, you get average players more often than not when you are drafting outside of the top few picks (notice both Presti's hits were 2 and 4 in the draft). And every single GM has passed on players who have gone onto be very good. It's easy to make someone look bad by pointing out all of the players they didn't select who might be better than a player they took. The fact that you can field useful players from the draft and use it as a tool to construct a winning team is what counts. '
Presti has done this. We have been in the process and have put together nice pieces. Now this season is the third year and we'll need to see some results. That is what Petrie should be judged on. And he will be. One way or another.
I can explain my thinking a little better on some of those decisions. I rated Ibaka in the hit category because he was taken with the 24th pick, a point at which finding a quality starter is a lot harder. That's the same reason I put Kevin Martin in the hit category, even though I think he's just an average player. Both are hits, just not big hits and not stars. Also overall I think Ibaka was OKCs third best player last year and the third best player on a playoff team seems like a pretty good use of a late first round pick to me.
Hedo I didn't rank as highly because he was taken in the middle of the first round where it's expected you should find an average player (granted it was a terrible draft overall) and was a contributer with playoff teams in San Antonio and Sacramento, but not a top 5 player. And he was the third best player in Orlando, Rashard Lewis was still good that year, but that one season doesn't effect my opinion much either way. He's still only had two seasons in his entire career where he was a better than average starter. As bad as that draft was, there's a dozen guys scattered throughout who had pretty comparable careers.
Capt. Factorial in his analysis rated players relative to their draft class which bumped Hedo's standing up quite a bit. I can see the reasoning there, but I'm also skeptical on the accuracy of basketball reference's Win Shares statistic on some of these guys. Hedo's career stats are nothing spectacular and if you look at his Win Share total, half of it comes at the defensive end. I don't fully understand where those numbers are coming from even after reading the description here. It seems like their "Defensive Rating" stat is heavily dependent on team performance (similar to the crediting of Wins and Losses to pitchers in baseball) and thus not an accurate indicator of individual performance. Hedo played most of his career on playoff teams, two of them (San Antonio and Orlando) which were anchored by All-Defense players so we should expect his Defensive Rating to skew upward.
With Green and Harden I guess I just have a higher opinion of them than you do. I didn't put either in the hit category yet, but I think they're both on track for long careers as borderline All Stars similar to Peja Stojakovic. As top 5 picks there's a higher standard of what constitutes a hit though, so they probably need to make at least one All Star game to qualify.
I mentioned Noah, Gasol, Tyreke, and Curry as misses already. No one else on your list really qualifies as an error in judgement to me, just similar players to the ones he drafted who've had better careers so far. Like you said, it's too early to really label anyone a bust yet from the last 3 drafts so the assessment is incomplete. In my original analysis of Petrie's picks I only mentioned the players he "missed" on to point out that in most of those years he drafted an average player when there were a lot of average players left to choose from, which is to say he drew a spade from a deck of cards not an ace. (bad analogy?)
We could go back and forth like this forever with subjective opinions on everything without ever getting closer to an agreement. I'll admit though, for my part, that I seem to have backed myself into a corner with an argument I can't really justify. A brief overview of past drafts seems to indicate that the star players are evenly distributed amongst the teams and while the truly bad GMs stand out (say hello Michael Jordan) everyone else is somewhere in the middle.
The truth of the matter is I just woke up with a bad post-John Salmons trade hangover and I needed to do something to blow off some steam. I hear the same argument made every year after the draft that Petrie is some kind of draft genius and therefore his decisions shouldn't be questioned and my feeling every time is that it doesn't pass the sniff test. I wanted to at least prove it to myself once and for all. Taking a step back and putting it in better perspective it may just be that Petrie has done as well as anyone else at finding talent through the draft. Which is to say, as well as anyone can expect to do. Like Glenn said, we're fans. We're not expected to be objective. And I'm a fool for pretending that I could be more objective than anyone else. My biases are a little harder for me to spot, but I bet they're perfectly obvious to everyone else. (Heh, just read my signature
)
I do have a particular axe to grind because there's been some high profile misses in recent years. I never liked Hawes as a prospect and I was on the Rondo bandwagon when no one else was. It's not lost on me that the last time Geoff reached on an undersized scoring guard with questionable defense from a small conference school over an inexperienced but gifted athlete from Kentucky, the guy he picked didn't make it through his rookie contract and the guy he passed up has played in two All Star games already at age 24. But I don't think Jimmer will be the bust that Douby was. And if I'm keeping score I should also admit that I wanted Brandon Jennings over Tyreke Evans and Geoff made the right move there.
Oh yeah, and I'm really looking forward to three more years of the John Salmons experience. Thanks again Geoff.
Hedo I didn't rank as highly because he was taken in the middle of the first round where it's expected you should find an average player (granted it was a terrible draft overall) and was a contributer with playoff teams in San Antonio and Sacramento, but not a top 5 player. And he was the third best player in Orlando, Rashard Lewis was still good that year, but that one season doesn't effect my opinion much either way. He's still only had two seasons in his entire career where he was a better than average starter. As bad as that draft was, there's a dozen guys scattered throughout who had pretty comparable careers.
Capt. Factorial in his analysis rated players relative to their draft class which bumped Hedo's standing up quite a bit. I can see the reasoning there, but I'm also skeptical on the accuracy of basketball reference's Win Shares statistic on some of these guys. Hedo's career stats are nothing spectacular and if you look at his Win Share total, half of it comes at the defensive end. I don't fully understand where those numbers are coming from even after reading the description here. It seems like their "Defensive Rating" stat is heavily dependent on team performance (similar to the crediting of Wins and Losses to pitchers in baseball) and thus not an accurate indicator of individual performance. Hedo played most of his career on playoff teams, two of them (San Antonio and Orlando) which were anchored by All-Defense players so we should expect his Defensive Rating to skew upward.
With Green and Harden I guess I just have a higher opinion of them than you do. I didn't put either in the hit category yet, but I think they're both on track for long careers as borderline All Stars similar to Peja Stojakovic. As top 5 picks there's a higher standard of what constitutes a hit though, so they probably need to make at least one All Star game to qualify.
I mentioned Noah, Gasol, Tyreke, and Curry as misses already. No one else on your list really qualifies as an error in judgement to me, just similar players to the ones he drafted who've had better careers so far. Like you said, it's too early to really label anyone a bust yet from the last 3 drafts so the assessment is incomplete. In my original analysis of Petrie's picks I only mentioned the players he "missed" on to point out that in most of those years he drafted an average player when there were a lot of average players left to choose from, which is to say he drew a spade from a deck of cards not an ace. (bad analogy?)
We could go back and forth like this forever with subjective opinions on everything without ever getting closer to an agreement. I'll admit though, for my part, that I seem to have backed myself into a corner with an argument I can't really justify. A brief overview of past drafts seems to indicate that the star players are evenly distributed amongst the teams and while the truly bad GMs stand out (say hello Michael Jordan) everyone else is somewhere in the middle.
The truth of the matter is I just woke up with a bad post-John Salmons trade hangover and I needed to do something to blow off some steam. I hear the same argument made every year after the draft that Petrie is some kind of draft genius and therefore his decisions shouldn't be questioned and my feeling every time is that it doesn't pass the sniff test. I wanted to at least prove it to myself once and for all. Taking a step back and putting it in better perspective it may just be that Petrie has done as well as anyone else at finding talent through the draft. Which is to say, as well as anyone can expect to do. Like Glenn said, we're fans. We're not expected to be objective. And I'm a fool for pretending that I could be more objective than anyone else. My biases are a little harder for me to spot, but I bet they're perfectly obvious to everyone else. (Heh, just read my signature
)I do have a particular axe to grind because there's been some high profile misses in recent years. I never liked Hawes as a prospect and I was on the Rondo bandwagon when no one else was. It's not lost on me that the last time Geoff reached on an undersized scoring guard with questionable defense from a small conference school over an inexperienced but gifted athlete from Kentucky, the guy he picked didn't make it through his rookie contract and the guy he passed up has played in two All Star games already at age 24. But I don't think Jimmer will be the bust that Douby was. And if I'm keeping score I should also admit that I wanted Brandon Jennings over Tyreke Evans and Geoff made the right move there.
Oh yeah, and I'm really looking forward to three more years of the John Salmons experience. Thanks again Geoff.
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I do think that in an analysis like this you do have to normalize for the quality of the draft class - as I said before, the GM can't make a star be available for selection. But I agree with your concern on Defensive Win Shares (which rely on the DRtg stat). DRtg is highly dependent on team defense, and not nearly enough is done to try to individualize it. Unfortunately, Win Shares is probably the best single-number value we have, so that's what I used.
I think ultimately a lot of the top drafting GMs have similar profiles. When they have low picks, they do very well. And they still find solid NBA talent with the occasional gym when they draft later. Petrie, Presti, Pop/Buford all fit this profile to me. I just don't think you can judge Petrie's drafting as any worse than theirs.
But I think some of the players you mention above are another reason why this sort of analysis takes some standardization to become less subjective. I don't have a low opinion of Harden, I think he'll be a nice player.
But here's an interesting comparison. You have Green listed as average and Wahad as a bust. Wahad blew out his knee, which destroyed his career. But his career high PER is nearly identical to Green. In fact the half year he was in Orlando it was higher than any PER Green has ever had with the Thunder or Celtics. PER is mainly an offensive stat. Wahad was a very good defender. Green is a poor defender. So in a Green-centric statistic, Wahad is either equal or better to him. Meanwhile, he plays far superior D. Yet, Green, the #5 pick, is listed as average and Wahad, the #11 pick, is listed as a bust.
As for Douby and Hawes. With you on Douby. I wanted Rondo. I thought it was a dumb move. Petrie deserves blame there. Hawes is different. The draft was terrible from 10 on. There were a couple of good 2nd rounders that everyone missed on. But really, it was just a bad draft. Hawes was the right pick.
Anyway, I understand the frustration. I mentioned last time, Petrie will be accountable for the results. A team needs a good 3 years to rebuild, and while we started ours late, we are now entering year 3. So, good or bad, barring massive injuries, the responsibility is on Geoff's shoulders.
But I think some of the players you mention above are another reason why this sort of analysis takes some standardization to become less subjective. I don't have a low opinion of Harden, I think he'll be a nice player.
But here's an interesting comparison. You have Green listed as average and Wahad as a bust. Wahad blew out his knee, which destroyed his career. But his career high PER is nearly identical to Green. In fact the half year he was in Orlando it was higher than any PER Green has ever had with the Thunder or Celtics. PER is mainly an offensive stat. Wahad was a very good defender. Green is a poor defender. So in a Green-centric statistic, Wahad is either equal or better to him. Meanwhile, he plays far superior D. Yet, Green, the #5 pick, is listed as average and Wahad, the #11 pick, is listed as a bust.
As for Douby and Hawes. With you on Douby. I wanted Rondo. I thought it was a dumb move. Petrie deserves blame there. Hawes is different. The draft was terrible from 10 on. There were a couple of good 2nd rounders that everyone missed on. But really, it was just a bad draft. Hawes was the right pick.
Anyway, I understand the frustration. I mentioned last time, Petrie will be accountable for the results. A team needs a good 3 years to rebuild, and while we started ours late, we are now entering year 3. So, good or bad, barring massive injuries, the responsibility is on Geoff's shoulders.
I'm not really that upset as I was on draft night. He was predicted to go 3rd but fell to 8th. If all these teams passed on him then I'm sure there's a reason. Usually these players that slip farther than expected don't end up being the player they were predicted to be (hard for me to say because I really like Kentucky). Ones that stand out to me are players like Brandan Wright, Marcus Williams, Gerald Green, Jerryd Bayless, etc. Only time will tell of course.
What I can't help but wonder is, how would this draft have turned out if Harrison Barnes and Perry Jones decided to enter?
What I can't help but wonder is, how would this draft have turned out if Harrison Barnes and Perry Jones decided to enter?
Yeah, I heard the same thing. If that's the case it just goes to show you how little people really know. I learned a long time ago not question Petrie, at least when it comes to drafting. I was p*ssed when he took Peja over J. Wallace, I was p*ssed when he took Hedo over Q. Richardson, I was p*ssed when he took Wallace, Martin, Evans etc. I finally learned that the draft is Petrie's bread and butter. He didn't miscalculate squat when it came to Knight. If he wanted Knight he would have stayed put and drafted him at 7. Sure the conspiracy theorist in me thinks the Maloofs forced the Jimmer pick on him, but Petrie has been a successful GM in this league for many years and I doubt he got to that point by allowing owners to dictate who he picks. If Jimmer is who Petrie wanted then Jimmer is who I want.
