Analysis: Staggering Kings hit crucial stretch

Twix

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http://www.sacbee.com/content/sports/basketball/kings/story/12425312p-13281648c.html


Analysis: Staggering Kings hit crucial stretch



They insist they still can be a title contender, but they will need to turn things around in a hurry.

By Martin McNeal -- Bee Staff Writer
Published 2:15 am PST Tuesday, February 22, 2005


Luckily for the Kings, the playoffs don't start tomorrow. They are 33-20 coming out of the All-Star break and know they have to get their act together before the playoffs. They have 29 regular-season games and 60 days remaining.

Based on how they've played of late, losing six of their last seven games, they'll need each game and day to work on improving.

"I think, No. 1, we've got to get some organization offensively so we know what we're doing," coach Rick Adelman said last week. "Hopefully, we'll be able to have a good practice Monday after the time off."

Because of the schedule and injuries, Adelman noted that the team has not been able to hold a full practice since Cuttino Mobley debuted in a Kings uniform Jan. 15.

That helps explain why many of the Kings' coaches and players said they think the NBA has yet to see the team at its best.

"We need to work on some stuff, and we'll be all right," Mike Bibby said.

The Kings said they still believe they can contend for a championship. That stance may seem silly, considering they are 3-7 so far in February and lately are having a ridiculously tough time beating mediocre teams.

But that's the NBA.

A year ago at this time, how many people were selling the Detroit Pistons as the 2004 NBA champions? Not many. And even die-hard Pistons fans didn't have much hope after their team lost at home to the New Jersey Nets and fell behind 3-2 in the second round of the playoffs.

Standing in fifth place in the Western Conference, the Kings said they believe their best basketball will be good enough to compete with the league's best.

With one of the season's most challenging stretches coming up, this might be a good time for the best to unveil itself, and sooner rather than later.

Sacramento will have to find a higher level and maintain it just to get into the playoffs, as Adelman has been reminding of late.

Among the remaining

regular-season games, the Kings face 16 teams that currently have a .500 or better record. So far, Sacramento is 13-15 against teams that are .500 or better. The Kings have yet to play the Orlando Magic and Detroit.

So just how do the Kings improve with the games and time they have left?

They already have one of the league's most complete offensive attacks, one that scores inside and outside, when they move the ball like they are capable.

Undoubtedly, a healthier Peja Stojakovic, who has been suffering from the flu and back and hamstring aches, will lift the offense. There were murmurs at the beginning of this season about the step or half-step Bobby Jackson has allegedly lost. These days, the Kings would welcome having that half-step come off the bench in combination with reserves Maurice Evans, Darius Songaila and Eddie House and/or a couple of the starters. Jackson, recovering from a torn left wrist ligament, is projected to return for the playoffs.

Of course, the Kings' best chances for success will occur after Mobley gets to practice with the entire starting unit. That should boost the offense even more.

Defensively, trouble continues. Sacramento's defense is one of the league's shakiest, allowing far too many deep penetrations. Bibby has excelled on offense despite a sore right ankle. But his on-ball defense needs to improve about as much as Brad Miller's temperament toward referees.

The Kings must become more precise and committed with their defensive rotations. They also will benefit when Adelman puts Greg Ostertag on the floor consistently - like the coach said he would - and allows the 7-foot-2 center's size to become a badly needed factor.

Ostertag's offensive limitations are clear and hard to watch, but he does block shots and foul people. There's no way his offensive game is any uglier - or more of a liability - than that layup drill invited by the Kings' matador defense in virtually every game.

And consider this: How can a team be so bad defensively and yet foul less than all but four teams?

Yo, foul a dude! Leave your man to do so. Trust your teammate will help just like you did. And should he fail to do so, jump him for it, whether he's the highest-paid player, Chris Webber, or rookie Kevin Martin. If they can't handle it, then winning is not the major priority and talk about making strides is just talk.

Granted, this team, especially the starting five, lacks quickness and athleticism. However, if the Kings became committed to preventing easy layups and dunks (which, by the way, is a staple of nearly every championship squad), that alone would go a long way toward defensive improvement.

About the writer:





Kings (33-20) vs. Hawks (10-41)


The skinny

Site: Arco Arena
Tipoff: 7 p.m.
TV: CSN
Radio: KHTK 1140

Last meeting


Mike Bibby scored 31 points as the visiting Kings won 100-97 Jan. 7.

The lineups

Kings

Matt Barnes
Chris Webber
Brad Miller
Cuttino Mobley
Mike Bibby

Hawks

Josh Smith
Antoine Walker
Obinna Ekezie
Josh Childress
Boris Diaw

The magic number

15 - consecutive road losses by the Hawks.


 
Twix said:
Ostertag's offensive limitations are clear and hard to watch, but he does block shots and foul people. There's no way his offensive game is any uglier - or more of a liability - than that layup drill invited by the Kings' matador defense in virtually every game.

::STANDS, SHOUTS AMEN, AND CHEERS!!!!::
 
Good article. Pretty much sums up the Kings problems, and exactly what they need to do to improve them....which we all have been saying on this board for 6 months.

I swear one of you is breaking our bond of secrecy! ;)
 
If Ostertag is our only hope....we are in deep trouble!!

Seriously, there seems to be a lot of pro-Ostertag sentiment on this board....I don't get it. Maybe it's the "backup QB syndrome" (as in, the grass is always greener). Do we remember the fun we used to have against Utah? Was anyone really scared of going in the lane when Tag was in the middle? If Sloan left Tag in, didn't that pretty much guarantee that Vlade or Chris or both were going to have a field day?!? Just making sure we all remember what he is capable of....and to me, that is maybe one blocked shot, a bunch of fouls and several poster appearances per night.
 
skeletor8 said:
If Ostertag is our only hope....we are in deep trouble!!

Seriously, there seems to be a lot of pro-Ostertag sentiment on this board....I don't get it. Maybe it's the "backup QB syndrome" (as in, the grass is always greener). Do we remember the fun we used to have against Utah? Was anyone really scared of going in the lane when Tag was in the middle? If Sloan left Tag in, didn't that pretty much guarantee that Vlade or Chris or both were going to have a field day?!? Just making sure we all remember what he is capable of....and to me, that is maybe one blocked shot, a bunch of fouls and several poster appearances per night.

We have no other options at this point -- nobody else on this team has the capability of shutting down the middle. Tag is goofy, but there's a reason he's been around the league for 9 years, started for half his career, played in 2 NBA Finals etc.

And if you've been watching all season there were several games earlier in the eyar where Tag was a major factor, even THE major factor in us securing the victory. Real problem here is Rick -- he has a hard time seeing the value of defensive specialists. He ahs nothing against good defenders, but if you can't also knock down an open jumper he gets noticeably squirmy.
 
Well, from my personal observations of him throughout his carreer, he is still around because he is big and tall. I really believe his defensive and rebounding additions (which in my opinion do not much exceed those of the people he replaces) are not enough to offset the minuses on the other end. I would almost equate him to Shawn Bradley except that Bradley can at least shoot.

But I guess I agree that he may as well get a few minutes run with the second unit if we're going to pay him as much as we are. Imho, the Ostertag acquisition never made much sense in the first place.
 
skeletor8 said:
his defensive and rebounding additions (which in my opinion do not much exceed those of the people he replaces)
You don't think he is a much better rebounder, shot-blocker, defender and lane clogger than Miller/Webber/Songaila?
 
Lane-clogger...yes. That is his function in the NBA...to take up space. What is his career per game block/rebound avg? I just don't think it is significantly better to warrant sitting one of those three for any significant amount of time. I know we all see a lot of bad defense while watching the Kings and we are all just looking for an answer. I just don't think Ostertag is it.

This team played reasonably good defense in the playoffs last year considering that Webber was even less mobile at that point than he is now. Hopefully turning up the intensity and some better teamwork/communication/effort will help overcome some of our more obvious shortcomings.
 
skeletor8 said:
Lane-clogger...yes. That is his function in the NBA...to take up space. What is his career per game block/rebound avg? I just don't think it is significantly better to warrant sitting one of those three for any significant amount of time.

One of the top per48 rebounders and shotblockers in the league over his career.
 
By my very rough calculations, he appears to be ~ 1 rebound per 48 minutes better than Webber over his career and .7 something better than Miller. Of course he is a block or two ahead per 48 minutes..no surprise there. Webber of course averages ~1.3 more steals per 48 than Ostertag and Miller averages ~.7 more.

I would say that averaging those out over 48 minutes has debatable meaning, but given these differences, I still think he is only an average rebounder. He is a pretty good shotblocker. I still don't think he would have much of a positive influence on the game given significantly increased minutes across the board...perhaps in particular situations (as an extra body to throw at Shaq) but not every game.

But if he is in fact the one that pushes the Kings over the top, I will be more than happy to eat my words.
 
His career per 48s come out to 11.8pts 13.6rebs 4.3blks per 48. That last number in particular is huge. Let's say for argument's sake you just gave him full starting minutes (which I am NOT advocating) and ran him out there for 36 minutes a game -- stats come out to about 9pts 10.5rebs 3.1blks. The difference between a 3 per game shotblocker and a one per game shotblocker isn't just 2 shots a game, its an ENORMOUS amount of intimidation. The 3 a game guy will alter 3 more shots for every one he actually managed to block, and everybody is aware of him.
 
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I agree with the affect an intimidating shotblocker can have. And given the fact that Webber is floor-bound more often than not now (I keep hoping that he gets to have one more healthy season where he can kinda jump again before it's all over), he certainly is the "intimidating" shot blocker on our team. Maybe I am being a little biased because I have never thought much of tag..he's basically Big Country Reeves with better staying power. But I feel like his stats are almost misleading. I don't think he provides the kind of intimidation that Ratliff or Mutumbo does....kinda like La Frentz maybe. Where they both block a lot of shots but they also get schooled and dunked on all the time too. I wish there was a way to track ppg allowed per person or something like that.

Anyways, apologies for kinda hi-jacking the thread. The Ostertag-infatuation just sometimes mystifies me. I guess desperate tiems call for desperate measures...

One thing I will give him credit for is donating one of his kidneys to his sister (I think it was his sister). Won some major respect for him as a person even if I don't have much respect for his game.
 
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