2021 NBA Draft Superthread

Who do you think the Kings end up drafting in tonight?

  • Wagner

    Votes: 24 39.3%

  • Sengun

    Votes: 7 11.5%

  • Moody

    Votes: 12 19.7%

  • Johnson

    Votes: 2 3.3%

  • Kuminga

    Votes: 3 4.9%

  • They’ll end up trading the pick.

    Votes: 8 13.1%

  • Other

    Votes: 5 8.2%
  • Total voters
    61
  • Poll closed .
tyguy said:
What evidence do you have that this is true?
Click to expand...

My eyes? History? Comparisons? Over the last few months I've watched a lot of Besiktas games. Not just highlights of Sengun dominating with dunks. He's got potential and skill but there are two sides to everything.
 
SacTownKid said:
Workouts are overrated. Quincy Douby, Papa G, workout marvels. And one of the reasons I'd bet that the Kings have players interested is because of De'Aaron Fox. Now the Kings need to make every move they do make based around that Fox kid. Otherwise we know what happens when they muck everything up around that star. They lose them eventually. I still think after pick 5 or 6 there is not consensus unless you are randomly pulling something out of thin air or focusing too much on advanced stats. With Sengun, everything you see has to be related back to style and differences between leagues as well.

All the prospects at 9 are different based on position and need. And I still think the Kings need to be more concerned with not BLOWING another lotto pick rather than scoring a home run since they've blown too many in the last number of years and their cap is starting to harden. Even if someone ends up a superstar as an offensive player, if you can't fit them in they won't become that here. C'mon, look at Bagley. They still have a number 2 pick with way more potential than anyone at 9 this year rotting away because he never got the green light when he wasn't injured.

Sengun to me is the type of pick they'd put on the backburner and if they think they can afford to do that they are wrong. Especially when definite wing options in a wing dominated league right now will be at 9 that will play now and as such at the very least build value as an asset. If the Kings made the 10th seed last year they are likely out of the window where these wings will be so then it's a crap shoot. They just happened to land in the exact tipping point area of where the legit potential wings will be in this draft. The safer positional gamble to me is a better bet than a non-fit, non-value position gamble even if that player can put up 25 a game. If Sengun is the next Greg Monroe/Kanter, where's the true value there right now?
Click to expand...

Workouts may be overrated, but they tell you something. More than that, interviewing prospects and getting a feel for them is underrated. Especially for someone like Jalen Johnson for instance. And getting to actually get height and wingspan measurements for a guy like Sengun.

Agree to disagree on Bagley. He's going into his fourth year. At this point (to quote Jerry Reynolds) potential just means you haven't done anything yet. He still can't set even a decent screen and still doesn't rotate properly on defense. About the only improvement has been his 3pt shot but it's still a very slow motion that he only gets off because teams still essentially dare him to shoot.

As for wings, the guys expected to be there at 9 are Moody and Wagner. If Moody is Mikal Bridges and Wagner is Mike Dunleavy with better defense and a worse shot they'll help the team but probably not elevate the Kings significantly. Which I'd agree is better than drafting a bust.

As for Sengun, I'm not banging the table for the kid, but he's not Kanter and he's definitely not Monroe. He'll step into the NBA as a better defender than Kanter just due to motor and effort. And he's already tougher than Monroe ever was. Sabonis is a pretty good comp. Hell, I think part of his appeal is that I haven't seen a Kings big set a hard pick in years. But he's also a kid who outmuscled grown men to put up big numbers in a pro league at 18 who plays hard and has a great feel for the game. Those types rarely fail. He may not ever be a great defender but I think he'll find a way to be a good pro.

But as I mentioned, I'm not that vested in who the Kings draft this year. For now I'm putting my faith in the new front office to make good moves. If they don't I'll reevaluate but it's nice to not get worked up at all when really none of us know how any of these kids will turn out in the NBA.
 
Tetsujin said:
https://twitter.com/x/status/1420844815990857734

On the other hand, considering what Morey keeps insisting that other teams offer him, I don't think the Sixers agree to getting SGA alone
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Why would the Warriors even want Simmons? He doesn't fit with a core of Steph, Klay, and Draymond in any conceivable way. Takes the ball out of Curry and Draymond's hands and shrinks the floor as a non-shooter.
 
SacTownKid said:
My eyes? History? Comparisons? Over the last few months I've watched a lot of Besiktas games. Not just highlights of Sengun dominating with dunks. He's got potential and skill but there are two sides to everything.
Click to expand...
It's your subjective opinion from watching video. If you go back and read draft profiles of sabonis its eerilrily similar. The big question mark was how he would defend without elite quickness and length or how he would score against nba size, length and athleticism. The answer is skill and iq, the anti Bagley.
 
funkykingston said:
Why would the Warriors even want Simmons? He doesn't fit with a core of Steph, Klay, and Draymond in any conceivable way. Takes the ball out of Curry and Draymond's hands and shrinks the floor as a non-shooter.
Click to expand...

Yeah, exactly. All the reasons why he didn't work out in Philly are still there in Golden State only with more time pressure to win now. He makes more sense as a trade target for a rebuilding team that is patient enough to develop him as the focal point of their offense.
 
funkykingston said:
Why would the Warriors even want Simmons? He doesn't fit with a core of Steph, Klay, and Draymond in any conceivable way. Takes the ball out of Curry and Draymond's hands and shrinks the floor as a non-shooter.
Click to expand...
I guess their thinking on that would be "What's better than one Draymond? Two!"
 
funkykingston said:
Workouts may be overrated, but they tell you something. More than that, interviewing prospects and getting a feel for them is underrated. Especially for someone like Jalen Johnson for instance. And getting to actually get height and wingspan measurements for a guy like Sengun.

Agree to disagree on Bagley. He's going into his fourth year. At this point (to quote Jerry Reynolds) potential just means you haven't done anything yet. He still can't set even a decent screen and still doesn't rotate properly on defense. About the only improvement has been his 3pt shot but it's still a very slow motion that he only gets off because teams still essentially dare him to shoot.

As for wings, the guys expected to be there at 9 are Moody and Wagner. If Moody is Mikal Bridges and Wagner is Mike Dunleavy with better defense and a worse shot they'll help the team but probably not elevate the Kings significantly. Which I'd agree is better than drafting a bust.

As for Sengun, I'm not banging the table for the kid, but he's not Kanter and he's definitely not Monroe. He'll step into the NBA as a better defender than Kanter just due to motor and effort. And he's already tougher than Monroe ever was. Sabonis is a pretty good comp. Hell, I think part of his appeal is that I haven't seen a Kings big set a hard pick in years. But he's also a kid who outmuscled grown men to put up big numbers in a pro league at 18 who plays hard and has a great feel for the game. Those types rarely fail. He may not ever be a great defender but I think he'll find a way to be a good pro.

But as I mentioned, I'm not that vested in who the Kings draft this year. For now I'm putting my faith in the new front office to make good moves. If they don't I'll reevaluate but it's nice to not get worked up at all when really none of us know how any of these kids will turn out in the NBA.
Click to expand...

And therein lies the issues with a player like Sengun. In 4 years are you saying the same thing about his inability to switch or guard pick and roll? With his jump shooting? His ability to score over length? His ability to guard true centers in the post? He is going to need development above almost any other player at 9, sorry, fool me once. It's not even about him at some point, it's about the Kings doing the same freaking things and expecting different results. They can't afford to take a long term project let alone one that doesn't resemble value in the league unless they have multiple whacks one of which filled that other need.

I'm not sure I'm totally down with Dunleavy as a comp but you know he'd be more valuable in todays league right? Anthony Randolph might be a star today on the right team. Non universal talents are always subject to circumstance.
 
tyguy said:
It's your subjective opinion from watching video. If you go back and read draft profiles of sabonis its eerilrily similar. The big question mark was how he would defend without elite quickness and length or how he would score against nba size, length and athleticism. The answer is skill and iq, the anti Bagley.
Click to expand...

Absolutely everything here is subjective. The reason I'm so against picking Sengun is that you have a rather small target to hit with a player who's specialty is scoring in the post who also hasn't yet faced NBA level athleticism. If he develops into a player who is similar to Sabonis, fantastic. But if he maybe tops out at 80% of that he's a guy you can find in free agency for half the cost of a three point shooter and the opportunity cost for picking Sengun at 9 is passing on a bunch of guards and wings who have potential as scorers, playmakers, and defenders. If you really believe in Sengun's NBA potential he's as good a pick as any but as more doubts creep in his value just falls off a cliff.
 
tyguy said:
It's your subjective opinion from watching video. If you go back and read draft profiles of sabonis its eerilrily similar. The big question mark was how he would defend without elite quickness and length or how he would score against nba size, length and athleticism. The answer is skill and iq, the anti Bagley.
Click to expand...

Sabonis has already been kind of halfway out of Indy at one point you know right? He was on that tightrope of do you move him or not. And VORP, Box plus minus, nobody is remotely thinking Sabonis' value is on the defensive end. He's not terrible on the box plus minus but behind players like Mason Plumlee and 29th overall playing next to a center in Turner who is 9th in the league. Put him full time at Center and see what goes down.
 
hrdboild said:
Absolutely everything here is subjective. The reason I'm so against picking Sengun is that you have a rather small target to hit with a player who's specialty is scoring in the post who also hasn't yet faced NBA level athleticism. If he develops into a player who is similar to Sabonis, fantastic. But if he maybe tops out at 80% of that he's a guy you can find in free agency for half the cost of a three point shooter and the opportunity cost for picking Sengun at 9 is passing on a bunch of guards and wings who have potential as scorers, playmakers, and defenders. If you really believe in Sengun's NBA potential he's as good a pick as any but as more doubts creep in his value just falls off a cliff.
Click to expand...
I think a lot of that risk is mitigated with him dominating and winning mvp at 18 in one of the best leagues in the world. I think you can also mitigate some risk by getting another pick in a trade such as the rumored lakers deal.
 
SacTownKid said:
And therein lies the issues with a player like Sengun. In 4 years are you saying the same thing about his inability to switch or guard pick and roll? With his jump shooting? His ability to score over length? His ability to guard true centers in the post? He is going to need development above almost any other player at 9, sorry, fool me once. It's not even about him at some point, it's about the Kings doing the same freaking things and expecting different results. They can't afford to take a long term project let alone one that doesn't resemble value in the league unless they have multiple whacks one of which filled that other need.

I'm not sure I'm totally down with Dunleavy as a comp but you know he'd be more valuable in todays league right? Anthony Randolph might be a star today on the right team. Non universal talents are always subject to circumstance.
Click to expand...

I don't tend to get upset with players for things they can't control. DMC was never going to be good against the P&R or defending the rim just because of his lack of lateral quickness and vertical explosion. You take the good with the bad. Considering his strength at 18 I don't think defending the post will be an issue for Sengun. But if his shot doesn't develop that's a major issue. And if he can't be an efficient post scorer against consistently longer defenders that's also a major issue. No doubt about that.

But that's different than what bothers me about Bagley. It's not physical limitations for him. It's a lack of development. He's still very left hand dominant, he still doesn't set good screens, he still misses defensive rotations, and his scoring is still largely from transition opportunities, offensive boards, and post ups. If he played good defense he'd be a good modern NBA center, but he doesn't.

I mean, if the Kings don't find a deal for him (and especially if Holmes leaves) I'd roll Bagley out at the five and let him sink or swim. Because at this point a traditional PF on offense that is bad on defense is one of the more useless player archetypes available. I think other than becoming a backup elsewhere Bagley's only real path to success in the NBA is becoming a modern NBA center.

I like Wagner a lot so I'm not going to argue against taking him, but he's also not a sure fire success on the NBA level. If he's unable to keep pace with smaller wings and not strong enough to handle bigger forwards he's also the bad type of a tweener. And his shot needs more work than most people seem to acknowledge.

There's a reason why half the players in the lottery bust. It's largely a crapshoot and even "safe" picks aren't always immune from that.
 
hrdboild said:
Absolutely everything here is subjective. The reason I'm so against picking Sengun is that you have a rather small target to hit with a player who's specialty is scoring in the post who also hasn't yet faced NBA level athleticism. If he develops into a player who is similar to Sabonis, fantastic. But if he maybe tops out at 80% of that he's a guy you can find in free agency for half the cost of a three point shooter and the opportunity cost for picking Sengun at 9 is passing on a bunch of guards and wings who have potential as scorers, playmakers, and defenders. If you really believe in Sengun's NBA potential he's as good a pick as any but as more doubts creep in his value just falls off a cliff.
Click to expand...

And the other question to me is should the Kings go all in on Sabonis as a trade target? If the answer is no that should effect your perception of a similar draft target at the very least. I think taking a wing limits the ability of this franchise to blow another pick. It sucks it's come to that and in a perfect world they could look at their lotto pick like that Warriors can look at theirs but guess what, their franchise is sooo much better from top to bottom than the Kings are. They could easily afford to take a Sengun and wait. The Kings can't. I mean, they waited and waited on Bagley for the sake of win now and are looking at dumping him for nothing. They waived Papa G for nothing and he's looking pretty decent now! WTF! They waived Hassan who has developed a nice career. Too much bad mojo doing the wait and see approach with a big man. Now, if they gave him the Cuz role from day 1, I don't think they'll win but at least they will build value but I don't see that happening.
 
https://twitter.com/x/status/1420852744777252868



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SacTownKid said:
Sabonis has already been kind of halfway out of Indy at one point you know right? He was on that tightrope of do you move him or not. And VORP, Box plus minus, nobody is remotely thinking Sabonis' value is on the defensive end. He's not terrible on the box plus minus but behind players like Mason Plumlee and 29th overall playing next to a center in Turner who is 9th in the league. Put him full time at Center and see what goes down.
Click to expand...
You seem to be moving the goal posts a bit here now. He re signed on a value contract and provides great impact. I didn't say he's a defensive monster, I said he's a very good player that provides positive impact. He's top ten at his position in rpm and pipm as well.
 
funkykingston said:
I don't tend to get upset with players for things they can't control. DMC was never going to be good against the P&R or defending the rim just because of his lack of lateral quickness and vertical explosion. You take the good with the bad. Considering his strength at 18 I don't think defending the post will be an issue for Sengun. But if his shot doesn't develop that's a major issue. And if he can't be an efficient post scorer against consistently longer defenders that's also a major issue. No doubt about that.

But that's different than what bothers me about Bagley. It's not physical limitations for him. It's a lack of development. He's still very left hand dominant, he still doesn't set good screens, he still misses defensive rotations, and his scoring is still largely from transition opportunities, offensive boards, and post ups. If he played good defense he'd be a good modern NBA center, but he doesn't.

I mean, if the Kings don't find a deal for him (and especially if Holmes leaves) I'd roll Bagley out at the five and let him sink or swim. Because at this point a traditional PF on offense that is bad on defense is one of the more useless player archetypes available. I think other than becoming a backup elsewhere Bagley's only real path to success in the NBA is becoming a modern NBA center.

I like Wagner a lot so I'm not going to argue against taking him, but he's also not a sure fire success on the NBA level. If he's unable to keep pace with smaller wings and not strong enough to handle bigger forwards he's also the bad type of a tweener. And his shot needs more work than most people seem to acknowledge.

There's a reason why half the players in the lottery bust. It's largely a crapshoot and even "safe" picks aren't always immune from that.
Click to expand...

Cuz was a bonafide upper top 10 pick though. There were no questions other than whether Petrie was going to get fooled by Greg Monroe. Luckily he didn't. Well, I guess in the end the Kings still screwed up that skilled big in Cuz anyway. Yep, another reason to look away IMO.
 
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