2021 NBA Draft Superthread
- Thread starter Tetsujin
- Start date
Workouts may be overrated, but they tell you something. More than that, interviewing prospects and getting a feel for them is underrated. Especially for someone like Jalen Johnson for instance. And getting to actually get height and wingspan measurements for a guy like Sengun.
Agree to disagree on Bagley. He's going into his fourth year. At this point (to quote Jerry Reynolds) potential just means you haven't done anything yet. He still can't set even a decent screen and still doesn't rotate properly on defense. About the only improvement has been his 3pt shot but it's still a very slow motion that he only gets off because teams still essentially dare him to shoot.
As for wings, the guys expected to be there at 9 are Moody and Wagner. If Moody is Mikal Bridges and Wagner is Mike Dunleavy with better defense and a worse shot they'll help the team but probably not elevate the Kings significantly. Which I'd agree is better than drafting a bust.
As for Sengun, I'm not banging the table for the kid, but he's not Kanter and he's definitely not Monroe. He'll step into the NBA as a better defender than Kanter just due to motor and effort. And he's already tougher than Monroe ever was. Sabonis is a pretty good comp. Hell, I think part of his appeal is that I haven't seen a Kings big set a hard pick in years. But he's also a kid who outmuscled grown men to put up big numbers in a pro league at 18 who plays hard and has a great feel for the game. Those types rarely fail. He may not ever be a great defender but I think he'll find a way to be a good pro.
But as I mentioned, I'm not that vested in who the Kings draft this year. For now I'm putting my faith in the new front office to make good moves. If they don't I'll reevaluate but it's nice to not get worked up at all when really none of us know how any of these kids will turn out in the NBA.
Agree to disagree on Bagley. He's going into his fourth year. At this point (to quote Jerry Reynolds) potential just means you haven't done anything yet. He still can't set even a decent screen and still doesn't rotate properly on defense. About the only improvement has been his 3pt shot but it's still a very slow motion that he only gets off because teams still essentially dare him to shoot.
As for wings, the guys expected to be there at 9 are Moody and Wagner. If Moody is Mikal Bridges and Wagner is Mike Dunleavy with better defense and a worse shot they'll help the team but probably not elevate the Kings significantly. Which I'd agree is better than drafting a bust.
As for Sengun, I'm not banging the table for the kid, but he's not Kanter and he's definitely not Monroe. He'll step into the NBA as a better defender than Kanter just due to motor and effort. And he's already tougher than Monroe ever was. Sabonis is a pretty good comp. Hell, I think part of his appeal is that I haven't seen a Kings big set a hard pick in years. But he's also a kid who outmuscled grown men to put up big numbers in a pro league at 18 who plays hard and has a great feel for the game. Those types rarely fail. He may not ever be a great defender but I think he'll find a way to be a good pro.
But as I mentioned, I'm not that vested in who the Kings draft this year. For now I'm putting my faith in the new front office to make good moves. If they don't I'll reevaluate but it's nice to not get worked up at all when really none of us know how any of these kids will turn out in the NBA.
It's your subjective opinion from watching video. If you go back and read draft profiles of sabonis its eerilrily similar. The big question mark was how he would defend without elite quickness and length or how he would score against nba size, length and athleticism. The answer is skill and iq, the anti Bagley.
And therein lies the issues with a player like Sengun. In 4 years are you saying the same thing about his inability to switch or guard pick and roll? With his jump shooting? His ability to score over length? His ability to guard true centers in the post? He is going to need development above almost any other player at 9, sorry, fool me once. It's not even about him at some point, it's about the Kings doing the same freaking things and expecting different results. They can't afford to take a long term project let alone one that doesn't resemble value in the league unless they have multiple whacks one of which filled that other need.
I'm not sure I'm totally down with Dunleavy as a comp but you know he'd be more valuable in todays league right? Anthony Randolph might be a star today on the right team. Non universal talents are always subject to circumstance.
I'm not sure I'm totally down with Dunleavy as a comp but you know he'd be more valuable in todays league right? Anthony Randolph might be a star today on the right team. Non universal talents are always subject to circumstance.
Absolutely everything here is subjective. The reason I'm so against picking Sengun is that you have a rather small target to hit with a player who's specialty is scoring in the post who also hasn't yet faced NBA level athleticism. If he develops into a player who is similar to Sabonis, fantastic. But if he maybe tops out at 80% of that he's a guy you can find in free agency for half the cost of a three point shooter and the opportunity cost for picking Sengun at 9 is passing on a bunch of guards and wings who have potential as scorers, playmakers, and defenders. If you really believe in Sengun's NBA potential he's as good a pick as any but as more doubts creep in his value just falls off a cliff.
Sabonis has already been kind of halfway out of Indy at one point you know right? He was on that tightrope of do you move him or not. And VORP, Box plus minus, nobody is remotely thinking Sabonis' value is on the defensive end. He's not terrible on the box plus minus but behind players like Mason Plumlee and 29th overall playing next to a center in Turner who is 9th in the league. Put him full time at Center and see what goes down.
I don't tend to get upset with players for things they can't control. DMC was never going to be good against the P&R or defending the rim just because of his lack of lateral quickness and vertical explosion. You take the good with the bad. Considering his strength at 18 I don't think defending the post will be an issue for Sengun. But if his shot doesn't develop that's a major issue. And if he can't be an efficient post scorer against consistently longer defenders that's also a major issue. No doubt about that.
But that's different than what bothers me about Bagley. It's not physical limitations for him. It's a lack of development. He's still very left hand dominant, he still doesn't set good screens, he still misses defensive rotations, and his scoring is still largely from transition opportunities, offensive boards, and post ups. If he played good defense he'd be a good modern NBA center, but he doesn't.
I mean, if the Kings don't find a deal for him (and especially if Holmes leaves) I'd roll Bagley out at the five and let him sink or swim. Because at this point a traditional PF on offense that is bad on defense is one of the more useless player archetypes available. I think other than becoming a backup elsewhere Bagley's only real path to success in the NBA is becoming a modern NBA center.
I like Wagner a lot so I'm not going to argue against taking him, but he's also not a sure fire success on the NBA level. If he's unable to keep pace with smaller wings and not strong enough to handle bigger forwards he's also the bad type of a tweener. And his shot needs more work than most people seem to acknowledge.
There's a reason why half the players in the lottery bust. It's largely a crapshoot and even "safe" picks aren't always immune from that.
But that's different than what bothers me about Bagley. It's not physical limitations for him. It's a lack of development. He's still very left hand dominant, he still doesn't set good screens, he still misses defensive rotations, and his scoring is still largely from transition opportunities, offensive boards, and post ups. If he played good defense he'd be a good modern NBA center, but he doesn't.
I mean, if the Kings don't find a deal for him (and especially if Holmes leaves) I'd roll Bagley out at the five and let him sink or swim. Because at this point a traditional PF on offense that is bad on defense is one of the more useless player archetypes available. I think other than becoming a backup elsewhere Bagley's only real path to success in the NBA is becoming a modern NBA center.
I like Wagner a lot so I'm not going to argue against taking him, but he's also not a sure fire success on the NBA level. If he's unable to keep pace with smaller wings and not strong enough to handle bigger forwards he's also the bad type of a tweener. And his shot needs more work than most people seem to acknowledge.
There's a reason why half the players in the lottery bust. It's largely a crapshoot and even "safe" picks aren't always immune from that.
Adrian Wojnarowski
@wojespn
That trade still needs to be agreed upon, but there's been momentum toward its ultimate completion, per sources.
And the other question to me is should the Kings go all in on Sabonis as a trade target? If the answer is no that should effect your perception of a similar draft target at the very least. I think taking a wing limits the ability of this franchise to blow another pick. It sucks it's come to that and in a perfect world they could look at their lotto pick like that Warriors can look at theirs but guess what, their franchise is sooo much better from top to bottom than the Kings are. They could easily afford to take a Sengun and wait. The Kings can't. I mean, they waited and waited on Bagley for the sake of win now and are looking at dumping him for nothing. They waived Papa G for nothing and he's looking pretty decent now! WTF! They waived Hassan who has developed a nice career. Too much bad mojo doing the wait and see approach with a big man. Now, if they gave him the Cuz role from day 1, I don't think they'll win but at least they will build value but I don't see that happening.
please include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pickplease include the pick please include the pick
