2010 Lottery Pick
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First off, you never know who might look like a star by draft time. As for size. At center you have Motiejunas at 7ft, Alabi at 7'1", Aldrich at 6'11" and Dexter Pittman at 6'10". Some project Pittman as a PF in the NBA. When you think of Pittman, think of a larger version of Glenn Davis.
At PF you have Monroe at 6'10/6'11". He's a terrific passer and ballhandler for his size. He needs to get stronger and play inside a little more, which is the main knock on him. There's Craig Brackins at 6'10". He also needs to get stronger and play inside more. He has a decent inside game, but too often settles for 18ft jumpers. Then you have Washington and Majok. Both are 6'10". At 6'9" you have Ed Davis, a very good all around player who has been overshadowed by Hansbrough. There's also a couple of probable one and doners in Cousins and Favors. Both seem to have legitimate height. At the moment, Favors seems to be the more talented of the two. Throw in Lawal and Samuels and you have quite a class of PF's to choose from.
They all have their weaknesses, so its a matter of picking your poison. If your looking for a point guard, the pickings are a little slim. However, one guy to keep your eye on is Abdul Gaddy. He's a 6'3" point guard freshman at Washington. He's not as athletic as Wall, but he's more athletic than people think. He's an extremely good passer with good court vision. Your not hearing much about him yet, but my gut tells me he'll be on the draft boards by draft time. Especially with such a weak point guard class.
At PF you have Monroe at 6'10/6'11". He's a terrific passer and ballhandler for his size. He needs to get stronger and play inside a little more, which is the main knock on him. There's Craig Brackins at 6'10". He also needs to get stronger and play inside more. He has a decent inside game, but too often settles for 18ft jumpers. Then you have Washington and Majok. Both are 6'10". At 6'9" you have Ed Davis, a very good all around player who has been overshadowed by Hansbrough. There's also a couple of probable one and doners in Cousins and Favors. Both seem to have legitimate height. At the moment, Favors seems to be the more talented of the two. Throw in Lawal and Samuels and you have quite a class of PF's to choose from.
They all have their weaknesses, so its a matter of picking your poison. If your looking for a point guard, the pickings are a little slim. However, one guy to keep your eye on is Abdul Gaddy. He's a 6'3" point guard freshman at Washington. He's not as athletic as Wall, but he's more athletic than people think. He's an extremely good passer with good court vision. Your not hearing much about him yet, but my gut tells me he'll be on the draft boards by draft time. Especially with such a weak point guard class.
At this point Wall looks like the guy who could be franchise player quality -- if he pans out. But you always have ot add that proviso. But when there is even one of those guys, the draft gets intriguing. And if nothing else the pure number of bigs available means that if we don't luck out in the lottery we may still hav a quality option there if we end up back picking #7-#10 or some such. Maybe not franchise guys, but an extra contributor, and at some point, either trade bait or making one of the guys ahead of him into trade bait as we try to find another Webber deal or whatever.
If no John Wall, and we want a big man, then....
OPTIMAL:
Cole Aldrich is my favorite so far if we are to pick a big man and somehow get out of the John Wall sweepstakes. Proven track record of great rebounding (especially on the defensive glass), and has shown that he can block shots without fouling (much like Alabi). Can change a game defensively. Don't overlook the scoring too--he has one of the best scoring rates for returning college players, great efficiency, and on few possessions--can score without the ball. He could get to the free throw line better, but he hits free throws despite a funky release. So does the big men stuff extremely extremely well, and IMO has better scoring potential than most big men of that breed. Exactly what we need. At worst, he's Joel Pryzbilla.
INTERESTING:
Favors has some really great clay to mold with him, wingspan, strength, athleticism, quickness. Skillwise, work ethic-wise, conditioning still remains to be seen, but clay alone he's got a lot of Josh Smith-type potential. One to keep an eye on, although not sure if he develops as a PF or transitions to SF. But it's nice to get a forward in a similar mold to Gerald Wallace, even if it's in a position that we don't really need more of.
Jerome Jordan intrigues. He does play for a small school, but he's a high efficiency scorer and a foul magnet, can really rebound and block shots--just the stuff you want out of your big men. Really improved his free throw shooting too. The weaknesses appear to be minor--turnovers and lack of weight--and can be corrected. At worst, he's Patrick O'Bryant. Mentality might be a question. We'll see.
WE'LL SEE:
Ed Davis--we'll see, but currently he wouldn't be my first choice. Let's get to the positives--he's 6'10"ish, a leaper and is long, and that really shows in his rebounding and shotblocking numbers. Also has some potential post ability. That alone has him pegged as a 1st rounder. But in order for intrigue to improve, he needs to improve the mid-range jumper and especially put on more weight, which is really important for him to translate his athletic markers to the next level.
Solomon Alabi--late bloomer maybe? He is semi-interesting as an athletic, mobile 7 footer who can block shots, and he doesn't seem that foul prone either. I question his defensive rebounding (a key element for big men), and his offense too--he seems to score mostly off of his own putbacks, doesn't draw fouls well like most big men do, although he's a decent free throw shooter so that might improve. Seems just raw. Pass.
NOT FOR US, BUT SOLID? PLAYERS:
Motiejunas, we're just speculating on the potential right now--but there's no denying that he has skill way beyond his years, with a potentially good inside-outside game in the NBA. But as usual with these Dirk Nowitzki/Pau Gasol types, there's ton to be skeptical about, ranging from toughness/weight to defense; they just don't have a great track record recently. I'm not terribly high on him because of that, and I do think that as he ventures into greater competition he'll be further exposed. I'm thinking more along the lines of Andrea Bargnani as the upshot, if that.
John Henson--has a potential body and skillset similar to Kevin Durant, but to reach his full potential needs to stop being obsessed with the perimeter and utilize triple threat and become a matchup nightmare. I think he's a SF so he's probably out of the picture, especially with his weight.
Monroe is probably a super role player at best, maybe a Cliff Robinson type in the future. Not terribly athletic and questions about softness/toughness, but paired with the right guy his skills (not really seen in big men)--such as his ability to get into passing lanes, developing jumpshot, passing ability--can be better utilized. Basketball IQ enhances the athleticism. Poor rebounder, but does have shotblocking instincts. I don't think we should get him, as we do have Thompson/Hawes there and Hawes in particular might be a similar player in some respects, so pass on him. But potentially useful player.
Brackins, no.
Gani Lawal, no.
ROLE PLAYERS OR WORSE:
Patrick Patterson--He's a role player. He can really rebound, score efficiently inside and has surprisingly good shotblocking skills, but he largely seems to play off of his athleticism. Does have skill in the post (he can really finish), and his ability to hit free throws gives him potential to extend the range. Question his basketball IQ, because despite all his athleticism he's not a good defender. Really needs to add more weight if he insists on playing this way. Without the weight, I see Hakim Warrick with better rebounding/shotblocking. With the weight, Brandon Bass. Pass.
Jan Vesely is a role player, if that, in the NBA. Tall hustle player, but he's a foul maniac and seems to be a poor rebounder, not to mention poor scorer and turnover prone. I think his stock is going to drop very soon. Pass.
Cousins is massive, but there's a lot of disappointment potential with him. Yeah with the weight problems/conditioning, but also his game--he does have skills but he's also very undisciplined, moving towards the perimeter and being infatuated with it. Sort of like Antoine Walker. Terrible defense. Pass.
Trevor Booker is just a role player if he's to make it, and I'm not even sure he's a sure thing. He can really rebound, and put up a very high steal/block combination--only five other players of varying small schools had higher rates--but unlike those players, the best part was that he did it without fouling. Really athletic, and maximizes it--quite unique. But his shot needs to be questioned--he's improving, and he just seems to really sloppy/unpolished in this area despite being a high efficiency scorer--overall offense appears ordinary. The worst part is that he's only 6'7" 215--he has a SF body with mostly a PF game. I think his jumper's broke, and he'll have to rely on his defense or transition to SF to make it--at his height/weight, just not sure.
Larry Sanders is a tad interesting, but a role player--at 6'9" he's a freak athlete with a freak wingspan, and that shows the most in his rebounding and shotblocking (really good shotblocker at the college level). But on offense he's just terribly raw--has no range, can't hit free throws, turns the ball over and even worse, can't really finish around the basket. His lack of weight severely hinders him, and he'll really need to put on weight to cut it as a PF as it looks like he doesn't have SF skills at all. His freak athleticism is what makes him a prospect, but I sense a little Marcus Haislip here--he just coasts on that athleticism.
AJ Ogilvy, an Aussie, is probably a late 1st rounder at best--he didn't improve from his freshman year, and with the lack of athletic upside that comes with him that makes observers believe that he's peaked. He's a reasonable rebounder and shotblocker, although I question the rebounding a bit. Skilled, efficient scorer too--polished inside-outside game, foul magnet, hits free throws. A bit turnover prone, and not the passer that some were hoping for. Probably makes for a nice role player. But that lack of athleticism/mobility affects him severely--he doesn't dunk at ease despite his height, offense might not come as easily in the NBA, and the defensive issues exacerbated. Aaron Gray is the downside, poor man's Brad Miller probably the upside. The league is just getting more athletic at the big men slots, and I'm not sure he'll really fit.
OPTIMAL:
Cole Aldrich is my favorite so far if we are to pick a big man and somehow get out of the John Wall sweepstakes. Proven track record of great rebounding (especially on the defensive glass), and has shown that he can block shots without fouling (much like Alabi). Can change a game defensively. Don't overlook the scoring too--he has one of the best scoring rates for returning college players, great efficiency, and on few possessions--can score without the ball. He could get to the free throw line better, but he hits free throws despite a funky release. So does the big men stuff extremely extremely well, and IMO has better scoring potential than most big men of that breed. Exactly what we need. At worst, he's Joel Pryzbilla.
INTERESTING:
Favors has some really great clay to mold with him, wingspan, strength, athleticism, quickness. Skillwise, work ethic-wise, conditioning still remains to be seen, but clay alone he's got a lot of Josh Smith-type potential. One to keep an eye on, although not sure if he develops as a PF or transitions to SF. But it's nice to get a forward in a similar mold to Gerald Wallace, even if it's in a position that we don't really need more of.
Jerome Jordan intrigues. He does play for a small school, but he's a high efficiency scorer and a foul magnet, can really rebound and block shots--just the stuff you want out of your big men. Really improved his free throw shooting too. The weaknesses appear to be minor--turnovers and lack of weight--and can be corrected. At worst, he's Patrick O'Bryant. Mentality might be a question. We'll see.
WE'LL SEE:
Ed Davis--we'll see, but currently he wouldn't be my first choice. Let's get to the positives--he's 6'10"ish, a leaper and is long, and that really shows in his rebounding and shotblocking numbers. Also has some potential post ability. That alone has him pegged as a 1st rounder. But in order for intrigue to improve, he needs to improve the mid-range jumper and especially put on more weight, which is really important for him to translate his athletic markers to the next level.
Solomon Alabi--late bloomer maybe? He is semi-interesting as an athletic, mobile 7 footer who can block shots, and he doesn't seem that foul prone either. I question his defensive rebounding (a key element for big men), and his offense too--he seems to score mostly off of his own putbacks, doesn't draw fouls well like most big men do, although he's a decent free throw shooter so that might improve. Seems just raw. Pass.
NOT FOR US, BUT SOLID? PLAYERS:
Motiejunas, we're just speculating on the potential right now--but there's no denying that he has skill way beyond his years, with a potentially good inside-outside game in the NBA. But as usual with these Dirk Nowitzki/Pau Gasol types, there's ton to be skeptical about, ranging from toughness/weight to defense; they just don't have a great track record recently. I'm not terribly high on him because of that, and I do think that as he ventures into greater competition he'll be further exposed. I'm thinking more along the lines of Andrea Bargnani as the upshot, if that.
John Henson--has a potential body and skillset similar to Kevin Durant, but to reach his full potential needs to stop being obsessed with the perimeter and utilize triple threat and become a matchup nightmare. I think he's a SF so he's probably out of the picture, especially with his weight.
Monroe is probably a super role player at best, maybe a Cliff Robinson type in the future. Not terribly athletic and questions about softness/toughness, but paired with the right guy his skills (not really seen in big men)--such as his ability to get into passing lanes, developing jumpshot, passing ability--can be better utilized. Basketball IQ enhances the athleticism. Poor rebounder, but does have shotblocking instincts. I don't think we should get him, as we do have Thompson/Hawes there and Hawes in particular might be a similar player in some respects, so pass on him. But potentially useful player.
Brackins, no.
Gani Lawal, no.
ROLE PLAYERS OR WORSE:
Patrick Patterson--He's a role player. He can really rebound, score efficiently inside and has surprisingly good shotblocking skills, but he largely seems to play off of his athleticism. Does have skill in the post (he can really finish), and his ability to hit free throws gives him potential to extend the range. Question his basketball IQ, because despite all his athleticism he's not a good defender. Really needs to add more weight if he insists on playing this way. Without the weight, I see Hakim Warrick with better rebounding/shotblocking. With the weight, Brandon Bass. Pass.
Jan Vesely is a role player, if that, in the NBA. Tall hustle player, but he's a foul maniac and seems to be a poor rebounder, not to mention poor scorer and turnover prone. I think his stock is going to drop very soon. Pass.
Cousins is massive, but there's a lot of disappointment potential with him. Yeah with the weight problems/conditioning, but also his game--he does have skills but he's also very undisciplined, moving towards the perimeter and being infatuated with it. Sort of like Antoine Walker. Terrible defense. Pass.
Trevor Booker is just a role player if he's to make it, and I'm not even sure he's a sure thing. He can really rebound, and put up a very high steal/block combination--only five other players of varying small schools had higher rates--but unlike those players, the best part was that he did it without fouling. Really athletic, and maximizes it--quite unique. But his shot needs to be questioned--he's improving, and he just seems to really sloppy/unpolished in this area despite being a high efficiency scorer--overall offense appears ordinary. The worst part is that he's only 6'7" 215--he has a SF body with mostly a PF game. I think his jumper's broke, and he'll have to rely on his defense or transition to SF to make it--at his height/weight, just not sure.
Larry Sanders is a tad interesting, but a role player--at 6'9" he's a freak athlete with a freak wingspan, and that shows the most in his rebounding and shotblocking (really good shotblocker at the college level). But on offense he's just terribly raw--has no range, can't hit free throws, turns the ball over and even worse, can't really finish around the basket. His lack of weight severely hinders him, and he'll really need to put on weight to cut it as a PF as it looks like he doesn't have SF skills at all. His freak athleticism is what makes him a prospect, but I sense a little Marcus Haislip here--he just coasts on that athleticism.
AJ Ogilvy, an Aussie, is probably a late 1st rounder at best--he didn't improve from his freshman year, and with the lack of athletic upside that comes with him that makes observers believe that he's peaked. He's a reasonable rebounder and shotblocker, although I question the rebounding a bit. Skilled, efficient scorer too--polished inside-outside game, foul magnet, hits free throws. A bit turnover prone, and not the passer that some were hoping for. Probably makes for a nice role player. But that lack of athleticism/mobility affects him severely--he doesn't dunk at ease despite his height, offense might not come as easily in the NBA, and the defensive issues exacerbated. Aaron Gray is the downside, poor man's Brad Miller probably the upside. The league is just getting more athletic at the big men slots, and I'm not sure he'll really fit.
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I agree on Favors. Right now he looks like a top five pick. But again, its a long ways off. Brackins has the skill level and athtleticism to be a good player in the NBA. However, I'm concerned about his work ethic. From what I read he was out of shape for the junior USA team workouts.
I think that Motiejunas is a better athlete than Bargnani, and from the little I've seen of his play, he's appears to be a pretty tough guy who's not afraid to go inside and mix it up a little. This is despite the fact he's not exactly built like Karl Malone.
But your right. Its just as easy to be wrong about european players as it is to be right. When you think of great european players, its a short list.
I think that Motiejunas is a better athlete than Bargnani, and from the little I've seen of his play, he's appears to be a pretty tough guy who's not afraid to go inside and mix it up a little. This is despite the fact he's not exactly built like Karl Malone.
But your right. Its just as easy to be wrong about european players as it is to be right. When you think of great european players, its a short list.
I wouldn't overlook him. I don't think he'll ever be a great offensive player, but I can see him become a defensive presence. He is raw, but he's had limited playing time and and word is that he has a good work ethic. He's only an inch or so shorter than Thabeet and just as, if not more athletic. I'm not saying he's the second coming of Bill Russel, but he is an interesting prospect thats worth watching.