2010-11 Draft position watch

[fnordius]

That Cavs team shows just how great Lebron really is.

Personally, I suspect that the change of GM, head coach, most of the assistant coaches, and the departures of ZI, Shaq, and some lesser players, plus injuries (Gibson, Varejao, Parker, etc) bringing them down to a 9-man roster, could have something to do with it, too. They brought in a rookie who was still gimpy from a recent injury, who soon left the game re-injured, just so they could have 10 guys suit up. That's how desperate they are. I considered them a small threat at the start of the season, but I've been forced to change my mind.

Maybe they're hoping to draft LeBron's replacement.

Whats your prediction on the bottem 5 teams in order guys? mine is :

1. Cavs
2. Wolves
3. Kings
4. Nets
5. Wizards

I wouldn't jump to any conclusions about NJ before the trade deadline.

 

[fnordius]

1. CLE 8-37 .178
2. MIN 10-35 .222
3. SAC 10-33 .233
4+. Currently irrelevant, everyone else has 13 or more wins.

Three week forecast (through 17 Feb): the smoothest possible sailing for us, but will Cleveland and Minny also manage to go wossless despite easier schedules?

Kings opponents: @LAL, vs NO, vs BOS, vs SAS, vs UTA, vs DAL, vs OKC, @PHO, @OKC, @DAL
Cleveland: vs DEN, @ORL, @MIA, vs IND, @MEM, vs PTL, @DAL, vs DET, vs LAC, vs WAS, vs LAL
Minnesota: @UTA, vs TOR, vs MEM, @TOR, vs DEN, @NO, @HOU, @IND, vs PHI, vs PTL, vs LAC

We have another ugly week or so after that, a bunch of road games. I'm betting that we get to February 26th with no worse than 3rd place, and we could just as easily regain 2nd.

 

[hrdboild]

Is that really our next 10 games? Yikes.

 

[Kingster]

1. CLE 8-37 .178
2. MIN 10-35 .222
3. SAC 10-33 .233
4+. Currently irrelevant, everyone else has 13 or more wins.

Three week forecast (through 17 Feb): the smoothest possible sailing for us, but will Cleveland and Minny also manage to go wossless despite easier schedules?

Kings opponents: @LAL, vs NO, vs BOS, vs SAS, vs UTA, vs DAL, vs OKC, @PHO, @OKC, @DAL
Cleveland: vs DEN, @ORL, @MIA, vs IND, @MEM, vs PTL, @DAL, vs DET, vs LAC, vs WAS, vs LAL
Minnesota: @UTA, vs TOR, vs MEM, @TOR, vs DEN, @NO, @HOU, @IND, vs PHI, vs PTL, vs LAC

We have another ugly week or so after that, a bunch of road games. I'm betting that we get to February 26th with no worse than 3rd place, and we could just as easily regain 2nd.

It's interesting that Bryon Scott and Rambis were two of the names bandied about for the Kings vacant coaching position a couple of years ago. I wonder if their popularity has taken a hit?

 

[Spike]

It's interesting that Bryon Scott and Rambis were two of the names bandied about for the Kings vacant coaching position a couple of years ago. I wonder if their popularity has taken a hit?

I wouldn't Blame Scott too much. Cleveland's roster is a total mess.

 

[Kingster]

I wouldn't Blame Scott too much. Cleveland's roster is a total mess.

I'm not blaming Scott or Rambis. Just giving pause to those that think firing Westphal is the answer. If you fire him, who is his replacement? Scott and Rambis, both of whom could presumably be fired for their dismal records? Both of whom were lauded by many on this board who now want to fire Westphal. Do you want to replace Westphal with a guy who has lost 18 in a row? Do you want to replace Westphal with Rambis, who has 11 wins? He has Beasley, Love, and Johnson. It took the owner to get him to play Love more. It all tends to support the grass is greener syndrome when it comes to coaches...

 

[fnordius]

As we approach our longest road trip of the year, everybody but Cleveland's winning some games.

The race could get ugly.

1. CLE 8-45 .151
2. SAC 12-37 .245
3. MIN 13-39 .250
4. TOR 14-39 .264
5. WAS 14-37 .275
6. NJN 16-37 .302
7. Rest have 20+ wins.

 

[King-Da-Yah]

The Cavs should just combine forces with our boys in purple and make the best 15 man roster they can out of both teams. And this new hybrid team is still the worst in the league.

I am excited for this thread, always fun to watch the race really heat up down the stretch. **** my life.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

The Cavs should just combine forces with our boys in purple and make the best 15 man roster they can out of both teams.

So basically we drop Jermaine Taylor for Antawn Jamison?

Look, the Cavaliers are so bad, even WE don't deserve to be mentioned in the same sentence. In fact, with the way we've been playing lately, I can see us plausibly passing Minny, Washington, Toronto, New Jersey, and Detroit, too. (Detroit has a cushion, but I really don't think they've got a good team at all, so I can see them falling hard.)

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

As we approach our longest road trip of the year, everybody but Cleveland's winning some games.

The race could get ugly.

1. CLE 8-45 .151
2. SAC 12-37 .245
3. MIN 13-39 .250
4. TOR 14-39 .264
5. WAS 14-37 .275
6. NJN 16-37 .302
7. Rest have 20+ wins.

Our record is so damn bad. I dont care what anyone says, you can call me a homer, but we are much better than any of those teams. Better talent now, and better potential.

I dont know if it is the coach, but you have to point the finger somewhere..

 

[hrdboild]

You know, if our schedule had been flopped and we'd played the harder teams early in the season when Cousins hadn't figured things out yet, Dalembert was injured, and Evans was struggling with his issues and played the easier teams right now, we probably come out of this season with 30 wins. Just goes to show that win-loss record doesn't tell you the whole story.

 

[fnordius]

with the way we've been playing lately, I can see us plausibly passing Minny, Washington, Toronto, New Jersey, and Detroit, too.

I think we could plausibly do just about anything, but do you think that dropping below fifth is probable?

 

[vikinginferno]

I think we could plausibly do just about anything, but do you think that dropping below fifth is probable?

No. We will most likely stay between the 2 and 4 spot with our schedule the rest of the way.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I think we could plausibly do just about anything, but do you think that dropping below fifth is probable?

Well, I wouldn't say we could plausibly make the playoffs, so perhaps our definitions differ. Depends on what you mean by probable.

I'll just be explicit about how I think our season will play out. I think we are getting better, and we will win more games down the stretch percentage-wise than we have so far. At our current pace we would win 8 more games, but I think that we will actually win between 10-15 games, giving us 22-27 wins. I'll throw out 25 wins as a baseline number. Cleveland will not come close. With Beasley's recurring ankle problems, I don't think Minnesota can get there. Toronto is not a good team and is unlikely to get to 25 wins. Washington's inability to win on the road will probably keep them below 25. With New Jersey apparently out of the Carmelo race, they could easily stumble and not get 25 wins. Detroit seems to be smoke and mirrors at this point, and while they'd only need 5 wins to get to 25, they could go in the tank and not get there.

If we pass every one of those teams, we'd be in seventh (reverse rank). I don't think we'll pass all of those teams, though. I think our range is between 2-7 and most likely we'll be 4 or 5. But I don't think we'd need a miracle to get the 7th. I'd bet pretty strongly against 8th, though, because we'd have to go on a real tear. There aren't enough bad teams out there to slip below us - we'd probably have to go .500 the rest of the way, and the schedule is hard enough and has enough road games that I think that's over our heads.

 

[yanon]

my prediction base on the way Kings are playing right now and the strength of the Kings' remaining schedule. They should win 12 +/- 2 games. So, that is a total of 22 wins at worst and 26 wins at best.

 

[fnordius]

Well, I wouldn't say we could plausibly make the playoffs, so perhaps our definitions differ. Depends on what you mean by probable.

It's funny, but in a more verbose version of the post you just replied to, I pointed out how this team may have beaten the Lakers at Staples, but they'd also lost to the Lakers by 33, and lost to Washington, Minnesota, etc. I then went on to portray an imaginary scenario in which DMC woke up with bad morale one morning, and the Kings reverted to playing like the December version of the team. I deleted all of that post except for the one sentence, since I felt creepy about singling out a rapidly improving King to undeservedly play the baddie in a depressing and pessimistic hypothetical. And yet a day later, here we are.

We have a team full of kids, the things we can count on them for are excessive fouls and inconsistency.

Looking over our schedule, I'm thinking more like 19-22 than 22-27. Of our competitors, all of the EC teams have easier schedules than us, if only because they play each other a bunch during March and April, and someone has to win. Realistically speaking, our chances of catching Cleveland are only slightly better than our chances of being the 2011 champions. The biggest wild card is trying to figure out which weak teams may experience random implosions or explosions, or may decide to go into full blast tank mode. Toronto is a good example of a franchise that might decide that there's no time like the present for blowing it up. I wouldn't necessarily put it past Detroit, either.

If I had to bet right now, I'd be saying that we finish 4th, plus or minus 2 places, with Cleveland in 1st, and Minny in the 2nd-4th range. Young teams are too unstable for me to try to nail it down any more decisively than that.

 

[fnordius]

Might as well do an update, since the rankings won't be changing in the next few days (all star break).

1. CLE 10-46 .179
2. MIN 13-43 .232
3. SAC 13-40 .245
4. TOR 15-41 .268
5. WAS 15-39 .278
6. NJN 17-40 .298
7. The rest have 21+ wins.

 

[sidney]

Might as well do an update, since the rankings won't be changing in the next few days (all star break).

1. CLE 10-46 .179
2. MIN 13-43 .232
3. SAC 13-40 .245
4. TOR 15-41 .268
5. WAS 15-39 .278
6. NJN 17-40 .298
7. The rest have 21+ wins.

If NJ gets Carmelo, look for them to be out of the race. That would pretty much guarantee us being in the 2-5 spot.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

If NJ gets Carmelo, look for them to be out of the race. That would pretty much guarantee us being in the 2-5 spot.

its a conspiracy if cleveland or toronto wins the lotto... bron and bosh both left those teams.

last yr washington with the arenas fiasco

 

[Capt. Factorial]

its a conspiracy if cleveland or toronto wins the lotto... bron and bosh both left those teams.

last yr washington with the arenas fiasco

Yep, those lottery balls certainly know how to bounce.

Of course, it's a conspiracy if WE win the lottery, too, because we're in danger of losing our team and David Stern rigged it so that there would be more local support for the Kings.

 

[Big Cuz 15]

Yep, those lottery balls certainly know how to bounce.

Of course, it's a conspiracy if WE win the lottery, too, because we're in danger of losing our team and David Stern rigged it so that there would be more local support for the Kings.

lol

we'll see.

 

[Sptsjunkie]

its a conspiracy if cleveland or toronto wins the lotto... bron and bosh both left those teams.

last yr washington with the arenas fiasco

Wait, those are 2 of the 3 worst teams. They have a combined ~60% chance of getting the top pick. It they win the lottery it's not a conspiracy, it's statistics.

 

[Megalodon]

Wait, those are 2 of the 3 worst teams. They have a combined ~60% chance of getting the top pick. It they win the lottery it's not a conspiracy, it's statistics.

Of course it is.

... or is it?

 

[Big Cuz 15]

Wait, those are 2 of the 3 worst teams. They have a combined ~60% chance of getting the top pick. It they win the lottery it's not a conspiracy, it's statistics.

lol ok

it'll be interesting bc both teams are hurting after their star players left them for dead.

 

[kingsboi]

For those saying the Lottery can be a conspiracy at times, I agree. I feel the same way sometimes. I mean by the looks of it Cleveland will end up with the worst record and if they end up winning the lottery that would be a brainscratcher because a) the worst team usually doesn't end up with the number one overall pick and b) as someone mentioned, Stern feels bad for them about what LeBron pulled and wants to pay them back, even though this draft class doesn't seem like it has a franchise changing caliber player. Now if a team like Toronto, Minnesota or Sacramento wins it, I can understand that. I wouldn't be surprised if one of Min or Tor wins it in the end though.

 

[Vlade4GM]

If anyone would like to show me some evidence of conspiracy, or even spin me a credible theory on HOW the lottery could be fixed, I'd love see/hear it. Believing in things without evidence is irrational.

The worst team has the best odds at the number one pick, past lottery results do not determine the odds. That does not mean they have great odds at getting the first pick, but they do have the best odds of all the teams in the lottery. To say that would be "evidence" of foul play, is just plain stupid.

You can find a reason for conspiracy in any team that wins the lottery, that's why these stupid beliefs continue to propagate.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

For those saying the Lottery can be a conspiracy at times, I agree. I feel the same way sometimes. I mean by the looks of it Cleveland will end up with the worst record and if they end up winning the lottery that would be a brainscratcher because a) the worst team usually doesn't end up with the number one overall pick and b) as someone mentioned, Stern feels bad for them about what LeBron pulled...

For those saying the lottery can be a conspiracy at times, I'd like to point out that you're being extremely silly. If Cleveland ends up winning the lottery with the worst record it won't be unusual at all because a) they'd have a 25% chance of winning, which is not terribly unlikely at all and b) every lottery team has a representative in the room when the lottery is conducted and you can be damn sure that 13 team representatives wouldn't all sit by and let the lottery be deliberately rigged against them.

 

[kingsboi]

For those saying the lottery can be a conspiracy at times, I'd like to point out that you're being extremely silly. If Cleveland ends up winning the lottery with the worst record it won't be unusual at all because a) they'd have a 25% chance of winning, which is not terribly unlikely at all and b) every lottery team has a representative in the room when the lottery is conducted and you can be damn sure that 13 team representatives wouldn't all sit by and let the lottery be deliberately rigged against them.

It's far from being silly. If you don't agree with it, I can't help you. You can stick with your opinion and I can stick with mine, that's perfectly fine with me. The whole percentages thing you can throw out the window come Lottery day because regardless of how much percent the worst team has to get the number one pick, history shows that it just rarely happens that way. Now, if Cleveland were to win it this year then I would be thinking conspiracy in my head and with good reason too. To me it seems, at least....is that the team with the worst record gets punished so they usually end up in the 2-4 range, it's not bad don't get me wrong, well 3 and 4 is if you need a top 2 pick but that's beside the point. Another thing, they should of continued to do the lottery selections infront of the TV like they did back in the day, to show the viewers that they are picking it based on probability and percentages, not going to the back of the room where god knows what they can do.

 

[Vlade4GM]

It's far from being silly. If you don't agree with it, I can't help you. You can stick with your opinion and I can stick with mine, that's perfectly fine with me. The whole percentages thing you can throw out the window come Lottery day because regardless of how much percent the worst team has to get the number one pick, history shows that it just rarely happens that way. Now, if Cleveland were to win it this year then I would be thinking conspiracy in my head and with good reason too. To me it seems, at least....is that the team with the worst record gets punished so they usually end up in the 2-4 range, it's not bad don't get me wrong, well 3 and 4 is if you need a top 2 pick but that's beside the point. Another thing, they should of continued to do the lottery selections infront of the TV like they did back in the day, to show the viewers that they are picking it based on probability and percentages, not going to the back of the room where god knows what they can do.

You mean the back room that has representatives from every lottery team as well as members of the media? You mean that room, where "anything" can happen? How do you expect people to respect your conspiracy theory if you don't even know basic facts about the lottery process?

History of lottery results does not change the likelihood of the odds in the draft. Just like if you flipped a coin 10 times and 8 times it came up tails. That doesn't change the odds from 50/50. I can't believe people are so ignorant of basic statistics.

 

[Warhawk]

It's far from being silly. If you don't agree with it, I can't help you. You can stick with your opinion and I can stick with mine, that's perfectly fine with me. The whole percentages thing you can throw out the window come Lottery day because regardless of how much percent the worst team has to get the number one pick, history shows that it just rarely happens that way. Now, if Cleveland were to win it this year then I would be thinking conspiracy in my head and with good reason too. To me it seems, at least....is that the team with the worst record gets punished so they usually end up in the 2-4 range, it's not bad don't get me wrong, well 3 and 4 is if you need a top 2 pick but that's beside the point. Another thing, they should of continued to do the lottery selections infront of the TV like they did back in the day, to show the viewers that they are picking it based on probability and percentages, not going to the back of the room where god knows what they can do.

No, it is silly. I don't know how you could sit there and think that the current system would be rigged. You think the Kings would sit there and say, "Hey, you know what? We are perfectly fine giving up draft position just to award it to team X." Really, you think that is what happens???