So our fellow tankers are Golden State, Detroit, New Jersey, Toronto, Cleveland - excluding New Orleans even though they're hot right now and don't look like stopping - the focus is the 4th or atleast 5th worst spot imo - that's what all of the above got left and what I think will happen :
Golden State(22 wins) remaining games :
They're scaring me the most out of the 22 wins group. they absolutely HAVE to pick 7th or they loose their draft pick - they already shut down Steph Curry and Bogut - and now David Lee and Richard Jefferson aswell - pretty much saying "even if you hand it to us, we're not gonna take it"
vs San Antonio
vs Lakers
@ Dallas
@ Houston
@ Minnesota
vs New Orleans
vs San Antonio
Trying to be realistic - the only really winnable game is against NO, but the way The Hornets are playing right now and the way GS absolutely can't get any more wins it seems like that's what thier win column will show at the end of the season aswell.. the other game we can MAYBE hope for a result in is @Minni, but again it seems like a longshot.
Estimation : 22 wins.
Detroit(22 wins) remaining games :
I think we're pretty safe from Detroit tbh.
Other then us and the Hornets they're pretty much the only team whos GM isn't aggressively trying to put his team in a position to loose shutting players down.
They play hard every game - are a very tough home team against just about anyone in the league, play good defense and never quit.
vs Cleveland
@ Atlanta
vs Minnesota
vs Toronto
@ Indiana
vs Philadelphia
They got 2 games against direct competition in Toronto and Cleveland which I think they'll win or atleast split - another home game against the Love-less Wolves they're favorite to beat - and as they're playing so good at home they might even get a W against Philly in the last game of the year too.
Estimation : 25 wins.
New Jersey(22 wins) remaining games :
The Nets don't really have nothing to loose for - they don't own their pick unless they finish top 3 - and they need to play good to show Deron Williams he got a reason to stay.. The problem for us is they're just not so good at basketball as a team, and have very tough games remaining.
vs Miami
vs New York
@ Milwaukee
vs Philadelphia
@ Toronto
Even if they got 3 home games, you couldn't really call thier arena 'home' - and it's against either an elite team(Miami) - or pretty good teams that are fighting for their playoff lifes(Knicks, Bucks, Philly).
Only winnable game here is Toronto away. Toronto are a tough team at home and play hard every game - but seeing it's the last game of the year and a win could mean the world for Toronto I can see them loosing this one with their GM making up DNPs out of thin air, calling an entire D-League team to play instead, seeing nothing else worked for him yet in his desperate attempt to make his team loose + NJ are a pretty solid away team.
Estimation : 23 wins.
Toronto(22 wins) remaining games :
What a joke. their GM is handing people DNPs for nose bleeding and back scratching, starting 2 D-League players with major minutes, resting their best players - and they STILL manage to win games against the redhot Celtics at home and @Atlanta.
Bryan Colangelo is prolly at home crying right now thinking of a how to get Dwayne Casey a DNC somehow.. the man is just leading a bunch of scrubs to play hard every night and win against top playoff teams. bad news for the Raptors this year - good news for their future though, cause the man is one heck of a coach.
vs Atlanta
@ Miami
@ Detroit
@ Milwaukee
vs New Jersey
They just destroyed Atlanta away, and they're a very tough home team that plays hard every night - so a win there is very much possible - aswell as the Detroit game even though it's away and Detroit match their "never say die" attitude - so I think they'll prolly pick 1 game from these 2.
Heat and Bucks are fighting for something and are just better and at home so that's 2 L's - and vs NJ even tho it'll be close I can't see BC allowing that team to win that game.
Estimation : 23 wins.
Cleveland(20 wins) remaining games :
Like Toronto they're also in a quest to loose as much as possible, with 3-4 D League players playing starter or rotation minutes and shutting down about 4-5 players including Kyrie Irving. They really got their eyes on that 4th worst spot and are doing anything to get it.
@ Detroit
vs Philadelphia
vs New York
@ San Antonio
@ Memphis
vs Washington
@ Chicago
The Detroit game is one where they might win, but I really doubt they will - same as I doubt they'll get another win from any other game they got except for 1.
That Washington game is super important for us if we want a shot at that 4th worst place - their GM will prolly try his hardest to make sure they loose that game, but he tried to do the same against them away starting 3 D-League players and still got a W, and that's cause the Wizards are just that bad - and lucky for us - a worst away team then they are a home team.
Estimation : 21 wins.
Sacramento(20 wins) remaining games :
So unlike most of the other teams we don't really TRY to loose, shut down players or do any of those stuff - we just simply suck. After all these years if there's one ability we perfected into art it's loosing - and it looks like it's starting to pay dividends - disregarding the awful win last night - and our schedule atleast on paper seems like maybe the hardest of all the other tankers.
vs San Antonio
vs Oklahoma City
@ Charlotte
@ Oklahoma City
vs Lakers
I know i'm too harsh on us then others but it is what it is.
Spurs at home is a major major game here in my opinion - they play us as their 3rd night of a back to back to back having played the Warriors away, and the Lakers at home on ESPN 1 day before us.
They will at best be very tired - and at worst rest all their major players and starters.
So considering that, and with us playing at home after 2 days of rest playing everyone we got in a run and gun high tempo style of play with the crowd behind us - a win for us there is a pretty real scenario.
The reason that's a major game is - a win there will stretch it to a 2 game win streak, sending us to that OKC game again rested with VERY high moral against a team we already beat at home before and just knocked us out of the park a few days ago - so I think if we don't win SA we can mark this down as a loss too - but if they do, it might cause a chain reaction that will end with a 4 game win streak.
The Bobcats game is pretty much a lock as a W - and @OKC it's just as much lock as a L - leaving us with the Kobe-less Lakers at home in the last day, and the Lakers at home is always a possible win for us no matter what - esp as the Lakers might rest other players for the playoffs, and we'll fight extra hard to give(SOME) fans the W they want.
Estimation : 22 wins.
If i'm correct it'll look like this :
9. Detroit : 25-41 (1.7% to win)
T7. New Jersey : 23-43 (3.5% to win)
T7. Toronto : 23-43 (3.5% to win)
T5. Golden State : 22-44 (7.5% to win)
T5. Sacramento : 22-44 (7.5% to win)
4. Cleveland : 21-45 (11.9% to win)
---------------
3. New Orleans (15.6% to win)
2. Washington (19.9% to win)
1. Charlotte (25% to win)
Terrance Williams is the fly in the ointment, but I still contend that his insertion into the lineup this late in the season is going cause turnovers and miscommunications, which will offset his talent. This team has considerable momentum working for it, with each new game providing a new name to the All-Star ballot from the opposing team. Even NO gets a guy on the All-Star ballot with the inimitiable name of Smith. Next up is OKC. I would expect Sefolosha or maybe even Royal Ivey (yes, Royal Ivey) to be the next All-Star candidate.
