Greg Oden

[Superman]

Question: why exactly?

If we can agree, and we should, that he was beginnign to look dominant just at the beginnign of this very season (his last game before getting injured he put up 13pts 20rebs and 4blks), then are you saying that oops, a broken kneecap is a career ender? If he was just emerging as a dominant force after all the other injuries, you're saying this one is the tipper? Because I would say as far as long term effects a broken kneecap is a lot LESS damaging than torn ligaments or something like that. A worrisome injury threat, but not something that should dramtically change your athleticism or way you play.

It's not that this particular injury is so gruesome, at least for me. And it's not the microfracture surgery, either. Having this year off might do the micro'd knee some good.

My reservations are, first of all, there could be residual effects from both knee injuries that trickle down and cause ankle and foot problems, hip problems, back problems. That can happen when you are favoring one leg.

But beyond that, Oden is one bad circumstance away from needing to bathe in holy water. I don't believe in luck and curses and all that type of stuff, but with two season ending knee injuries in three years, maybe his body just can't handle playing competitive basketball for nine months a year. To need microfracture surgery at 20 years old is a serious concern. That means the cartilage in his knee wasn't able to hold up after just three or four years of playing high intensity basketball. And there's always the chance that he could need another operation on that knee as the new cartilage begins to wear down. Or that the other knee could require the same procedure. It's a big red flag. His body might just be telling him NO.

IF he's able to come back and play at a high level, and avoid further injury, his will be one of the biggest success stories yet. I mean, we made a big deal about Marcus Camby getting back to playing 70 games a few years ago after dealing with one injury after another, and he didn't blow his knees out.

You're basically taking a risk that a player who has sustained two pretty serious leg injuries in the span of two years can overcome those and be an effective, if not dominant, part of your team. To me, even best case scenario, you're asking "would you rather have JT and your first rounder, or have the hope of Greg Oden making a spectacular comeback?" I'm not in love with JT, and draft picks are an inexact science, to say the least, but the same has to be said about Greg Oden at this point.

 

[Bricklayer]

It's not that this particular injury is so gruesome, at least for me. And it's not the microfracture surgery, either. Having this year off might do the micro'd knee some good.

My reservations are, first of all, there could be residual effects from both knee injuries that trickle down and cause ankle and foot problems, hip problems, back problems. That can happen when you are favoring one leg.

But beyond that, Oden is one bad circumstance away from needing to bathe in holy water. I don't believe in luck and curses and all that type of stuff, but with two season ending knee injuries in three years, maybe his body just can't handle playing competitive basketball for nine months a year. To need microfracture surgery at 20 years old is a serious concern. That means the cartilage in his knee wasn't able to hold up after just three or four years of playing high intensity basketball. And there's always the chance that he could need another operation on that knee as the new cartilage begins to wear down. Or that the other knee could require the same procedure. It's a big red flag. His body might just be telling him NO.

IF he's able to come back and play at a high level, and avoid further injury, his will be one of the biggest success stories yet. I mean, we made a big deal about Marcus Camby getting back to playing 70 games a few years ago after dealing with one injury after another, and he didn't blow his knees out.

You're basically taking a risk that a player who has sustained two pretty serious leg injuries in the span of two years can overcome those and be an effective, if not dominant, part of your team. To me, even best case scenario, you're asking "would you rather have JT and your first rounder, or have the hope of Greg Oden making a spectacular comeback?" I'm not in love with JT, and draft picks are an inexact science, to say the least, but the same has to be said about Greg Oden at this point.

Actually I'm saying that the player WAS dominant 4 months ago, and since that time has had ONE major injury, a broken kneecap, that should not, barring complications, dramatically alter the way he plays.

I'm not arguing Greg Oden of 3 years ago. I am arguing Greg Oden of 3 months ago when he was beasting on the league at a Dwight Howard pace before suffering a non-chronic, non-reconstructive knee injury. a broken bone essentially.

 

[bajaden]

The question here isn't about Oden's potential. He wouldn't have been the first pick in the draft if he didn't have the potential. The question is whether he can remain healthy. Ok, I'm open to all that want to guarantee me that he'll be healthy for the next 10 years. Your asking me to give up two healthy players. Both lottery picks for a player that hasn't been able to make it thru one season without an injury. All I'm asking for is a guarantee. Anyone? I'm waiting...........

Ok, does anyone remember Derrick Smith? Just asking. Great player for the Clips. Had a knee injury. We traded two players and a draft pick for him. Mike Woodson and Larry Drew. He never recovered from that injury and was a mere shell of his former self. But he once had potential dammit. If only he had recovered. I sure you all remember Ralph Sampson. We followed the Smith debacle with the Sampson debacle. He WAS a great player. Lets take a risk and go for it. Both those trades set the franchise back about 10 years. Personally, I'm not eager to relive those days. I like Oden a lot. Just give me a guarantee. And I want nothing less than a guarantee right now. Because if it ends up being a mistake, were back to the lottery for a couple of more years. Maybe more.

On the other hand we stay the course. We maybe get lucky and get a shot at Wall, Cousins, Turner, Johnson, etc. And then we go out an sign, well who knows. Maybe we can lure Bosh to come here. Because I like the odds on luring Bosh better than I like the odds on Oden staying healthy.
This is not a time for the franchise to be taking that kind of risk.

 

[tradepeja]

You gotta do this deal. We're not getting the #4 pick and drafting a tyreke evans again, and JT is about at his ceiling right now and that ceiling isn't very good.

 

[Superman]

Actually I'm saying that the player WAS dominant 4 months ago, and since that time has had ONE major injury, a broken kneecap, that should not, barring complications, dramatically alter the way he plays.

I'm not arguing Greg Oden of 3 years ago. I am arguing Greg Oden of 3 months ago when he was beasting on the league at a Dwight Howard pace before suffering a non-chronic, non-reconstructive knee injury. a broken bone essentially.

I'm saying that the effects of the injuries he's had may be more than what we've seen so far.

I'm also saying that he might just not be able to stay healthy for long enough to justify trading for him. This time it's a broken kneecap, next time is a grade three ankle sprain, next time is a dislocated shoulder... His body might just not be able to handle playing NBA basketball.

 

[Warhawk]

You gotta do this deal. We're not getting the #4 pick and drafting a tyreke evans again, and JT is about at his ceiling right now and that ceiling isn't very good.

Interesting how you know all that for a fact.

 

[bajaden]

You gotta do this deal. We're not getting the #4 pick and drafting a tyreke evans again, and JT is about at his ceiling right now and that ceiling isn't very good.

And you know this how? Crystal ball? Taro cards? You could be very useful for my taxes...

 

[Rockmeister]

Depending on our draft location if we're going to have access to a defensive center I think we should go there first. It will put pressure on Hawes to work out during the off season and compete for his spot too.

I agree.

 

[Kings Faithful]

It would be an extremely risky move. In my opinion, I think Oden is going to be plagued with major injuries the rest of his career... I wouldn't do it. Its extremely tempting though because if he comes back beastin like he was before the injury and he stays on the court it could possibly propell us into Dynasty status in a few years if the right moves are made (picking up a Bosh or Amare type PF in the FA).

Evans/Udrih
Cisco/?
Casspi/Greene
Bosh or Amare/Landry
Oden/Hawes

That almost brings tears to my eyes.

 

[beb0p]

I'm not saying he didn't play well or wasn't a good player, I'm saying he wasn't what he used to be athletically, which limits his potential as a "franchise player". However, then there was still hope that the microfracture was just an isolated incident and wasn't a sign of him just having structural problems that will lead to more injuries. He just had another major injury on his other knee that did not come out of trauma at all, just a normal jumping motion.

Even if he wasn't as athletically gifted as he used to be, he was still a franchise player based on his play this season.

I'm not going to play doctor and I'm not going to make any prediction on Oden's health, the only thing I know is that his injury, while bad, is not career ending. Medical science said he can recovery and be as good as he was before the injury. I'm not saying he will be the model of health but I am saying it's not unreasonable to expect him to come back strong if the medical science is right.

.

 

[beb0p]

Trading for an injury-prone player (in my mind) is much worse than drafting a player and then you find out he is injury prone. One is luck (draft), the other is just making very poor decisions (trade). Why would you knowingly trade for an injury-prone player that plays in what, 1/3 of the total number of games over his 3 years in the NBA? Why? This isn't a videogame, this is the NBA. You need players on the court to be productive. And he has shown nothing to indicate he will be able to play at a high level and be able to stay on the court.

You explained the cause but not your conclusion. Why would one scenario has worse effect than the other when both scenario essentially produce the same result?

Kobe and Dwight are great players, but how good would their teams be if they only played in 1/3 of the games? Would you really want to tie up serious salary in players that don't see the floor?

I can understand it is a gamble you would make. That decision just doesn't make any sense to me.

If he comes back healthy for a season then the trade is somewhat more reasonable in my mind; maybe we just have different expectations on what would be a "reasonable" trade for an injury-prone player. One season would calm some of the injury fears, but doesn't fully negate the past. I would still be pretty cautious about that trade after one healthy year. After two I would probably strongly reconsider. But that is just my nature I guess - I am not really a swing-for-the-fences kind of guy when it comes to players with a long history of health problems.

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Even if he wasn't as athletically gifted as he used to be, he was still a franchise player based on his play this season.

I'm not going to play doctor and I'm not going to make any prediction on Oden's health, the only thing I know is that his injury, while bad, is not career ending. Medical science said he can recovery and be as good as he was before the injury. I'm not saying he will be the model of health but I am saying it's not unreasonable to expect him to come back strong if the medical science is right.

.

The point is I think there is a far greater chance that that injury was due to his body being prone to injury than it being just a coincidence. All the stuff about him having poor body structure that came out during the draft is starting to seem like it had a lot of merit to it. When you look at both of his major injuries, they happened doing very basic motions with no trauma happening to him. This leads me to believe it happened because of long term stress being put on his joints. I don't think you can just take each injury and treat them as isolated incidents. That is a lot to happen to his body at such an early age and with no major trauma happening to them. That tells me that his body is just not capable of handling the stress of basketball for very long.

You know, I liked Oden a lot when he was drafted. I believed all the hype, I thought he was deserving of the number one pick, and I believed he still had potential after microfracture. I want him to do well because he seems to be a very nice guy who just wants so badly to play ball and reach his potential. I'd love for this year's Oden to come back, stay healthy, and I'd love it even more if he could do it in a Kings uniform. However, when he shattered his knee cap by simply taking a little hop to load up for a simple jump, that's when I knew he was never going to get over his injuries. It's just way too many coincidences for these incidents to not be connected. The chances of him being the same for very long are way way too low to justify giving up a top pick, it just doesn't add up.

 

[ParniValjak]

Interesting how you know all that for a fact.

Alternatively, how you would know for a fact that Greg Oden will never fulfill his potential?!

Its a two way street. He was a dominant force as recently as 3 months ago and broken knee cap is not as damaging long term as a knee reconstruction or a microfracture surgery.

You can't claim that other don't knw things for certain and then flag that Oden is most likely finished.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Alternatively, how you would know for a fact that Greg Oden will never fulfill his potential?!

Its a two way street. He was a dominant force as recently as 3 months ago and broken knee cap is not as damaging long term as a knee reconstruction or a microfracture surgery.

You can't claim that other don't knw things for certain and then flag that Oden is most likely finished.

Ahem

 

[Warhawk]

You explained the cause but not your conclusion. Why would one scenario has worse effect than the other when both scenario essentially produce the same result?

They don't end in the same result at all. Maybe an (admittedly somewhat flawed) example will clarify the idea for you:

In one case you are picking two new cars off the lot (draft) over a couple years, either of which *could* break down, but both of which *should* serve you well.

In the other you are buying a car off a friend (trade) that can go a bit faster than either of the new cars you can get off the lot but it breaks down *frequently* (is in the shop 2/3 the time), and if you get his car you have to give him your two cars (from the draft) in exchange.

Does that sound like the same result to you?

 

[Warhawk]

Alternatively, how you would know for a fact that Greg Oden will never fulfill his potential?!

Its a two way street. He was a dominant force as recently as 3 months ago and broken knee cap is not as damaging long term as a knee reconstruction or a microfracture surgery.

You can't claim that other don't knw things for certain and then flag that Oden is most likely finished.

I don't, but he has a history there that is difficult to ignore, no?

 

[beb0p]

They don't end in the same result at all. Maybe an (admittedly somewhat flawed) example will clarify the idea for you:

In one case you are picking two new cars off the lot (draft) over a couple years, either of which *could* break down, but both of which *should* serve you well.

In the other you are buying a car off a friend (trade) that can go a bit faster than either of the new cars you can get off the lot but it breaks down *frequently* (is in the shop 2/3 the time), and if you get his car you have to give him your two cars (from the draft) in exchange.

Does that sound like the same result to you?

They ARE the same result!! Are you ok?

Scenario #1: buy new cars off lot, new cars break down. You have to take the bus.

Scenario #2: buy used car from friend, car breaks down. You have to take the bus.

Does that not sound like the same result to you?

.

 

[Bricklayer]

They ARE the same result!! Are you ok?

Scenario #1: buy new cars off lot, new cars break down. You have to take the bus.

Scenario #2: buy used car from friend, car breaks down. You have to take the bus.

Does that not sound like the same result to you?

.

I think the assumption is that the cars off the lot are not going to break down.

But the x-factor would be, you aren't buying these cars as a daily driver, you are buying them to try to enter and win a race. You can buy two dependable ones that might help you to a nice solid middle of the pack finish. Or you can buy one exotic sportscar, that might break down and leave you back in the pack, or if it holds together might give you a legitimate chance at winning the race.

 

[Entity]

yeah but that exotic sportscar HAS broken down the last 3 times it has been taken for a test drive??? I think you answer is clear. Forget the sportscar.

 

[Double-K]

yeah but that exotic sportscar HAS broken down the last 3 times it has been taken for a test drive??? I think you answer is clear. Forget the sportscar.

I think that sounds like a plot in a Hollywood movie. Root for the underdog and win!!!!!


Maybe we should pitch that to Disney for the next "Cars" movie.

 

[Sarunas]

I would only consider this as long as our pick isnt in the top 2. I would not give up a chance at john wall or evan turner for greg oden. If it is 3 or higher, I would think about it, becuase I would take a healthy Greg Oden over Cousins or any other big in the draft. But that is a big IF. I hope for the best for the kid though.

 

[ParniValjak]

I don't, but he has a history there that is difficult to ignore, no?

And there is also history that more than 50% of top 10 picks in the draft turn out to be average players. There is history there. No?

 

[Uncia03]

I wished we'd have taken a chance on the injury-prone Nene before he recovered, played well, and ended up with that large contract from Denver.

But not not every injury-prone player can begin to have the health consistency of a Nene or Okafor.

Provided that I don't have the opportunity to get Wall, Turner, or Cousins I think I would do this trade depending on what the doctors say. If they say that he'll fully recover from this latest knee injury and indicate that there is no reason to believe that something like this is a definite chronic problem, then I do the deal.

This is one of those situations where you have to pull the trigger earlier if you're going to do this. Because if you wait to evaluate his health on the court, and he plays well, you'll have lost your opportunity.

Frankly, the impact that a defensively-intimidating Big man who can play both man-defense and help defense would be mind-boggling.

We've already got defensive players who can guard the wings. The opportunity to get a young player like Oden, combined with the tenacity of the rest of the team would easily put us in reach of deep play-off runs based soley on defense, heart, and hustle.

There is huge risk there. But if it pans out, it easily puts us on the path for competing for a championship. The reward is worth the risk for me in this particular case.

 

[est.1999]

Some people really don't know what franchise player means and it's actually kinda sad. Ok, so let's say Oden comes back and is never injured ever again in his career. So what's his domination like? He's gonna control the middle of the paint. Rebound. Block shots. Alter shots. Nasty dunks. Nasty putbacks. But what do franchise players do that make them franchise players? They're go to guys. Oden will never be an offensive go to guy when the game is on the line. Franchise tags in big men are reserved for the Hakeems, shaqs, duncans, etc... of the world. Oden is not a great two way player and franchise players are two way players.

 

[Emma]

I voted "**** yes I would trade this year's #1 for Oden!"

I would snatch him up so damn fast it would make the whole west coast's head spin.

 

[Spike]

Some people really don't know what franchise player means and it's actually kinda sad. Ok, so let's say Oden comes back and is never injured ever again in his career. So what's his domination like? He's gonna control the middle of the paint. Rebound. Block shots. Alter shots. Nasty dunks. Nasty putbacks. But what do franchise players do that make them franchise players? They're go to guys. Oden will never be an offensive go to guy when the game is on the line. Franchise tags in big men are reserved for the Hakeems, shaqs, duncans, etc... of the world. Oden is not a great two way player and franchise players are two way players.

We don't want Oden to be the franchise. There's a pretty good chance that the franchise is already here. We want Oden to anchor a championship defense.

 

[est.1999]

^^ understood. That's not my argument. Look back at the posts stating, "imagine this team with 2 franchise players!" woopie! He's not a franchise player. Not even close. Defense anchor for a championship team? Sure. I'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Even considering that, I still think bricks offer is too steep mainly because of his health. I don't think his body was made to withstand a full NBA season, let alone a long career.

 

[Warhawk]

And there is also history that more than 50% of top 10 picks in the draft turn out to be average players. There is history there. No?

At least average players (if that is the worst outcome) are still able to play and help the team.

 

[Uncia03]

^^ understood. That's not my argument. Look back at the posts stating, "imagine this team with 2 franchise players!" woopie! He's not a franchise player. Not even close. Defense anchor for a championship team? Sure. I'll take that every day of the week and twice on Sundays. Even considering that, I still think bricks offer is too steep mainly because of his health. I don't think his body was made to withstand a full NBA season, let alone a long career.

I don't think you're going to get any argument from people if you indicate that Oden is not a dominant two-way player. With that said, Oden was actually doing quite well clearing out space and operating in the post. He's no Al Jefferson by any means, but he was beginning to show that you couldn't just ignore him in there.

But what I really wanted to point out, is that sometimes having a Franchise wing player paired with a dominant elite defensive big is a better winning combination in the playoffs than having two franchise wing players on your team.

If Tyreke is able to continue to progress in the coming years, pairing him with an elite defensive big would have almost as much impact as pairing him up with another franchise wing player. So if we can't get our hands on Wall/Evans/Cousins then to me Oden, if he can remain healthy, is probably one of the best assets we could get with our #1 pick.

But as always, it is that health issue which makes this so difficult. If people knew one way or the other how his body would hold up for the remainder of his career it would be easy to make the correct choice.

 

[ovrush]

It depends where the pick is. If its a top two pick its a definite no as I think Wall and Turner will be stars.

Outside of the top two picks I think you seriously have to consider it. Especially taking into account our current personnel.

If you get a pick in the 3-5 range you're talking about guys like Favors, Cousins, Johnson.

I like Favors and a lot, but we're pretty set at power forward with Landry and Thompson.

At center Cousins would be an upgrade but I don't think he would ever develop into a dominant defender. His numbers have been great but his explosiveness is only ok. There are also questions about his work ethic etc. I think he'll be a good pro but not the huge upgrade over Hawes that would keep me from risking a healthy Oden.

Johnson is really impressive and would fit great next to Tyreke. I don't think he has the upside of Turner, however. I also think we have a good group that fits well next to Tyreke already in Casspi/Greene/Cisco/Udrih. I don't think we need to draft a 2/3 unless we think the guy can be a star because you could already argue that Donte/Casspi have star potential and they will eat a lot of the 2/3 minutes.


It's a high risk high reward type trade. But I think you should look into it. You drop a dominant center in the middle of the guys we have already and you have a scary team for a long time. This isn't even taking into account our capspace.