Greg Oden

[Bricklayer]

Ok, so somebody was in here a few days before the trade deadline wondering why there wasn't more chatter. So let's chatter.

Having perused our assets and opportunities this summer, as well as our needs, one name keeps popping to mind for me: Greg Oden. And I think we might have the assets to get him.

For those not paying attention early this season, Oden was starting to emerge as that monster people thought he would be out of college. His minutes were still somewhat limited (24min/gm) both because of McMillan/Pryszbilla (Pryz being the best backup C in the game demanded 20min/night himself) and by foul trouble -- Oden was averaging 4fls in those 24min a night. But he was putting up HUGE stats in those minutes, and was 2nd in the league in shotblocking, in only 24min/night, at the point he went down. How huge were the numbers? Consider:

09-10 Oden per 48
22.8pts (.605 FG% .766 FT%) 17.0reb 1.8ast 0.8stl 4.6blk 3.7TO

09-10 D. Howard per 48
24.9pts (.604 FG% .608 FT%) 18.3reb 2.2ast 1.5stl 3.8blk 4.9TO

He's huge, he's young, he's supposed to be a heck of a nice guy -- yes he sends nude pictures of himself off to his girlfriend, but hey, from what I've heard if they looked like that any man would. But...and the BUT in this case is the only reason we can een have this discussion, BUT...he keeps getting hurt. A wrist in college. A knee that cost him his first year. A foot that cost him part of his 2nd. A different knee that cost him most of his third. Its the story, its the risk.

So:
1)Our ideal score is/should be a young defense/rebounding monster of a center. We also need a post beast. There is only one young player I can think of who could be all of that in one.
2)Meanwhile Carl Landry and Donte Greene are two extremely versatile pieces. Starting or off the bench. At the 4 or at the 3.
3) we have a high lottery pick coming, and a ton of caproom.
4) the problem with our caproom is that it may be hard to convince a free agent of note to come join us based on Reke alone.
5) Oden should be untocuhable. He might be untouchable. Then again, after three years of disappointment, maybe Portland is ready to consider altrernatives. They have Pryz, they have Camby. Those guys are old. But they are there. And then there's our package.
6) this draft has a lot of good bigs near the top of it. But no surefire bigs. Nobody without questions. Oden's injuries are a question, but is Cousins' head any more of a sure thing?
7) the best player in the upcoming draft (Wall) unfortunately happens to play the same position as the top young player we just turned the franchise over to, so even winning the lottery has questions for us

Proposal:
What if we offered Portland this:

Jason Thompson (or Hawes) + our #1

I can see arguments flying in all directions. That looks like a very strong offer to me. If Oden is available at all, I would think Portland might listen. They love making moves around the draft anyway. Meanwhile we trade youth..but get youth back. Big youth. Top talent youth. Perfect fit youth. But risky youth given the injuries. Hence I thought it would be worthy of a thread. Inspire discussion. Even merit a poll.

And possible side benefit -- Oden has celebrity. We are able to tell a potential free agent this is our young core:

C- Oden 22 (star potential)
C- Hawes 22
PF- ??
PF-Landry 26
SF- Greene 21 (star potential)
SF- Casspi 21 (star potential)
SG- Cisco 28
PG- Evans 20 (star)
PG- Udrih 27

 

[piksi]

man, I like him but I don't like his knees

also depend on what pick we have because if we can get Wall then we might be able to get more than just Oden.

ban knees and Sacramento Kings - not a match

 

[asakkings]

I do like Oden when he plays but his injury problems at this point post too big of a risk to make that trade. Now if we can somehow pry him away without giving up this years 1st it would be awesome.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I really like Oden... but I don't know. Portland has really been crushed with each injury, I don't think we really want to go through that. Heck, I don't even want to go through it here again with a team I don't have a rooting interest in.

Depending on our draft location if we're going to have access to a defensive center I think we should go there first. It will put pressure on Hawes to work out during the off season and compete for his spot too.

 

[tyrant]

i say we should go after him. just our luck his injury problems go away once he's traded to us

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I went with "yes unless top 5", but it's such a tough call. The correct answer is "I just don't know", but I think top-5 + JT is probably about where the risk-reward balances out. There are several bigs in this draft who, while they aren't Greg Oden's in the freak-of-nature sense, might turn out more valuable simply due to his freak-of-nature injury issues.

Obviously if Oden stays healthy for his career JT+John Wall would probably still be acceptable. But if he's playing 40 games a season, there are probably several guys who are going to give you more, and relatively soon. Right now I think the "reserved" group of draft picks is probably something like Wall-Turner-Cousins-Favors-Monroe, and if none of those guys were there I would probably pull the trigger and hope to land a guy like Bosh to play beside Evans/Oden.

 

[Spike]

Risk/Reward - Look at it this way:

If he's healthy; absolutely! You'd be crazy NOT to.

If he isn't; you've given up JT + #1 pick. We can get a 2nd tier big in free agency (I think), and we'll be drafting in the same range next year, assuming it wasn't a top 5 pick. I don't think we'll get a top 5 pick next year. There's enough talent to muddle your way to a low lottery pick.

Based on that, one should make the trade. Not so sure if you replace Hawes with JT, purely because of size.

 

[Amory]

man, I like him but I don't like his knees

also depend on what pick we have because if we can get Wall then we might be able to get more than just Oden.

bad knees and Sacramento Kings - not a match

ditto.

I really really REALLY wanted to get him when draft time came around. My desire to have him on the team has kind of dwindled though.

He still does have potential of course, but not sure what I would pay for the "chance" of him being an all-star.

 

[Kingstime]

I would do it even with his injury problems, he was coming on very strong before this latest knee blowout. If he could come back and even be just a shotblocking presence he'd be worth it to me.

 

[Warhawk]

man, I like him but I don't like his knees

also depend on what pick we have because if we can get Wall then we might be able to get more than just Oden.

ban knees and Sacramento Kings - not a match

Same here, and JT and a 1st is giving up a LOT. I voted no because of the injuries, but there is more to it than that. JT isn't great, but he's pretty decent most days. I would rather have that and a top 10 pick this year than Oden sitting on the bench. If like Okafor he can move past the injuries and play 65+ games a year, then OK, consider it. Until then, no.

 

[Circa_1985_Fan]

He's Sam Bowie 2.0... big man version of Kevin Martin, always getting hurt...soft bones! No thanks!

 

[TTown Kings]

Oden is done, he'll be injury plagued his whole career and never live up to the full potential. No thanks.

 

[hammystyle]

Wow!

What a delicious conundrum from the risk averse/risk seeking portion of the brain.

I can see all the upside and what a perfect fit he'd be, but I just don't think you can invest in that body. Not just the investment of the #1 and JT, but the acknowldgment that this is our core player. Planning each year and basing its success on whether or not he can make it through healthy, its just too dangerous.

 

[cstorm]

It would be a big gamble, but unfortunately that's probably the only way we get a player of his 'possible' worth to come to Sac without a HUUUUUGE salary. My feeling is we would lose this gamble.

 

[Merdiesel]

First thing I said when he went down was we should go after him for cheap.
I think we can get him without the pick to be honest.

 

[Arkitect]

I would definitely talk to a bunch of doctors before I do the trade, and be reasonably sure that he will be able to perform at close to his previous levels. If there was a 50/50 shot that he would still be the player he was before, I do this deal. Best case: we get a 1st tier young big with a reasonable shot at contending in 2 years. Worst case: he never suits up or his a shell of his former self, we have a shot a low draft pick again next year, sets us back a year or so . I think the reward here is worth the risk. He doesn't have a huge contract so that is not really a concern. JT is okay, prob a 15/10 guy at his peak. I don't know anything about the players coming out in the draft, but unless there is a big that has been a solid rebounder and defender in college and will be available when we have our pick, an Oden gamble is worth it. The team is young enough to recover.

 

[est.1999]

I'd rather have Cousins

 

[JJ22L]

I like it Brick.

I think your proposal, based on a cost/benefit analysis, is just about right. Giving up the 1st round pick is rough but I think it would have to be included to get the deal done.

If Oden gets healthy, and he is able to contribute at least 65/70+ games a year, you just built yourself a contending squad (Oden and Tyreke...wow). Also, having another "big" name would help lure FA's this summer (possibly upper tier 2/lower tier 1 star). So, if you look at it, you gave up a 1st, Thompson, and cash to land Oden and seduce another star here to play with Reke.

Obviously assuming that Oden (and Reke) would be enough to lure a star here is a completely subjective analysis on my part, but I don't think it's too far fetched.

 

[Warhawk]

I would definitely talk to a bunch of doctors before I do the trade, and be reasonably sure that he will be able to perform at close to his previous levels. If there was a 50/50 shot that he would still be the player he was before, I do this deal. Best case: we get a 1st tier young big with a reasonable shot at contending in 2 years. Worst case: he never suits up or his a shell of his former self, we have a shot a low draft pick again next year, sets us back a year or so . I think the reward here is worth the risk. He doesn't have a huge contract so that is not really a concern. JT is okay, prob a 15/10 guy at his peak. I don't know anything about the players coming out in the draft, but unless there is a big that has been a solid rebounder and defender in college and will be available when we have our pick, an Oden gamble is worth it. The team is young enough to recover.

The risk to me is more along the lines of giving up a 15-10 PF we already have and also missing out on a good to very good PG or 4/5 that we should be able to draft with the pick we gave away. For a high-talent 5 that may be on the bench more than on the court. Just too much risk there (with a good chance of the experiment going south) for a young club trying to fight its way out of the hole we are in.

You say "just one more year" but how many years like that have we gone through already? The fans are not going to come watch Oden on the bench.

 

[91sickness]

I think we are giving up too much to get a very risky player. I think I would take my chances with JT and potentially Favors/Cousins than go after Oden.

 

[Superman]

I don't think Oden will ever be able to stay on the court.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Brick, I respect you and all, but are you out of your flippin' mind?! Oden is as good as done in my mind. Even if he makes it back and starts playing regularly again, he's going to have knee problems for the rest of his career. His athleticism was already sapped after microfracture, now he has a major knee injury in his other knee. Oden has good size, but his size isn't that good to make up for a lack of athleticism AND a lack of offensive skills. This is crazy talk.

 

[pupsingh]

what it were Spencer plus our first rounder for oden and THEIR first rounder?

 

[Big Cuz 15]

as much as i like oden.. i'm terrified of his injury history. thats too much to give up on potential that he can stay on the floor. if he can't.. it'll be orlando's grant hill part deux.. tmac had to do it on his own there for years.

 

[Spike]

what it were Spencer plus our first rounder for oden and THEIR first rounder?

The problem with that is their first rounder will likely be a low pick, and probably out of the lottery, to boot.

 

[FakeInjury]

I can't agree to anything like that. If we don't get JW we get DC or GL or that other GTech stud. Or Pattrick Patterson is a personal favorite of mine, also there is Sharron Collins and this draft is too deep to give up a lottery pick. They would have to be offering Aldridge for that kind of package, alridge and their 1st round pick. for thompson and ours.

 

[SacTownKid]

I don't think he's done but I think he was way overhyped from the get go. Very productive and good player but a franchise player he isn't even close too.

 

[est.1999]

Oden just has that doofus confused look on his face ala Michael Olowakandi . I'll pass

 

[beb0p]

The big unknown here is how high the Kings' #1 pick lands. If it's in the top there, I'd rather keep it.

If the pick is forth or below, then YES, YES, YES! Make the trade! I like JT - 6'-11 hard working, athletic w/ rebounding skill and all, but he is not irreplaceable. A high lottery pick while precious, can be obtained again provided you can stomach the tanking - it is not unique and irreplaceable.

But there is only one Greg Oden, a once in a generation big man. The worst case here is the Kings delay the rebuilding by a year or two. The best case here is the Kings getting that second franchise player - we're talking two franchise players still in their very early twenties. Can you imagine what the next ten years will be like? This could be the beginning of a dynasty. The downside is bad but not horrendous while the upside is just unbelievable. When the risk to reward favors the gambler, you wager.

Even with Oden's knees, it's still a gamble worth taking. I would not take such a gamble for anyone but a 22-yr-old 7-foot franchise player.

.

 

[Widowmaker2k]

I'm not sure if I would be on board with this or not. Oden could be 'the' guy we need, but it could be a big mess as well. Also, I'd think that Portland might rather have Hawes in this deal. They already have a pretty good PF, and at least Hawes brings a different style of play to compliment Pryzbilla.