Griffin or Rubio????

[nbrans]

In some ways this is almost amusing. I can't remember the last time I've seen a player with Griffins physcial ability and accomplishments, be so criticized. And, by the way, my endorsement of Griffin is in no way meant to be a negative in regards to Rubio. He may well turn out to be the bread and butter of NBA pt guards, and if we draft him, I certainly hope so. I just can't honestly give an opinion on him without seeing him play more games. What little I saw, I liked. But it was too little.

Well, I'm not necessarily a Griffin-hater, but the fact is that there is an uncertain track record for 6'8" power forwards in the NBA. And to track back to the Kenyon Martin comparison, Martin blocked over 3 shots a game in college and was one of the most intimidating defenders in the country. And Martin was a bit of an underwhelming #1 overall even at the time because he was a senior, somewhat undersized, and also lacked a post game. Griffin brings perhaps even more question marks than Martin.

Griffin does one thing a power forward in the NBA should do: he grabs rebounds. But as others have noted, because he has a somewhat primitive post game, his offense is not going to immediately translate until it becomes more refined. He is a borderline atrocious man defender and lacks shotblocking instincts. I don't think it's just avoiding fouls. He just doesn't exert much effort on that end.

And he doesn't really have the physical tools to be much of a defensive presence in the NBA. He's not that tall and not that long.

There are plenty of question marks about Griffin. He's not a sure thing to be much better than David Lee. In this draft, I still think he's the #1 prospect, but people are right to raise some red flags.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Well, I will agree and disagree to a point. All I was saying is the he scores almost all of his points in the post. He does not sit out there on the elbow and take jump shots. I can't remember the last jump shot he took. I was not saying that he was a poster boy for how to play the post.. However, he does have some post skills. He does use the drop step on occasion. He does have a purely right handed little jump hook. He also has some nice spin moves to the basket. Does he have a lot to learn? Sure he does. But to say he reminds you of Kenyon Martin, ( not you ) because thats what you believe he'll develop into. I just don't know what to say to that. I mean I could just make up anything, about any player and have it come out the way I want.

To say that your concerned about his lower base strength. ( again, not you) The guy is a physical specimen. He appears to have muscles on his muscles. Even the television comentator said the TV doesn't do him justice, for what thats worth. I mean this guy doesn't look like Jerome James. One of the things that the scouts talk about is his physcial strength.

In some ways this is almost amusing. I can't remember the last time I've seen a player with Griffins physcial ability and accomplishments, be so criticized. And, by the way, my endorsement of Griffin is in no way meant to be a negative in regards to Rubio. He may well turn out to be the bread and butter of NBA pt guards, and if we draft him, I certainly hope so. I just can't honestly give an opinion on him without seeing him play more games. What little I saw, I liked. But it was too little.

What's so crazy about a Kenyon Martin comparison? I've seen plenty of people use that comparison other than myself, he's a lot like what Kenyon Martin was coming out of college. He scores in a very similar fashion i.e. putbacks, lobs, rolls, set jumpers, and face up drives to the basket. Is this not exactly how Griffin scores?

 

[Bricklayer]

What's so crazy about a Kenyon Martin comparison? I've seen plenty of people use that comparison other than myself, he's a lot like what Kenyon Martin was coming out of college. He scores in a very similar fashion i.e. putbacks, lobs, rolls, set jumpers, and face up drives to the basket. Is this not exactly how Griffin scores?

It might be that the radically different cast to the rest of their games makes the comparison uncomfortable. They may score similarly, but Blwkae is about muscle, hustle and rebounding, and his defense is crap. Martin on the other hand was all about defense and playing above the rim, while his reboudning was crap.

 

[Vlade4GM]

It might be that the radically different cast to the rest of their games makes the comparison uncomfortable. They may score similarly, but Blwkae is about muscle, hustle and rebounding, and his defense is crap. Martin on the other hand was all about defense and playing above the rim, while his reboudning was crap.

I'm talking scoring wise though. Griffin is a lot like what people expected from Martin, minus the defense of course. Not all comparisons are meant to be taken that literal. Is McDyess a more comfortable comparison? He may fit the strength bill a little more, but then you still have the problem that he's probably an inch taller than him, he could block shots, and he wasn't a great rebounder for most of his career.

 

[Oprostaj]

McDyess was an ethletic freak when he came out. He also has a very good jumper. Nobody is saying here Blake will be a bust, we just don't think his game translates well to the NBA. David Lee has done quite well this year, I don't know how much of that is being the beneficiary of D'Antoni's system though.

 

[KingGiant49erFan]

What's so crazy about a Kenyon Martin comparison? I've seen plenty of people use that comparison other than myself, he's a lot like what Kenyon Martin was coming out of college. He scores in a very similar fashion i.e. putbacks, lobs, rolls, set jumpers, and face up drives to the basket. Is this not exactly how Griffin scores?

The attitude and motivation difference is the key, imo. Talent + Athleticism + Poor attitude/motivation = Rotation Player. Talent + Athleticism + Best Motor/Attitude in College Basketball right now = a stud.

 

[bajaden]

What's so crazy about a Kenyon Martin comparison? I've seen plenty of people use that comparison other than myself, he's a lot like what Kenyon Martin was coming out of college. He scores in a very similar fashion i.e. putbacks, lobs, rolls, set jumpers, and face up drives to the basket. Is this not exactly how Griffin scores?

I'm a little confused here. I thought you were comparing Griffin to Martin in the sense of what they were going to turn into, once in the NBA, not how they compared in college. They wern't even similar in college other than both played in the post. Martin had more post skills than Griffin, but Griffin is still a better scorer than Martin, despite his lack of refined skills. Martin was by far the better defender in college. Griffin was by far the better rebounder.

To me the biggest difference between the two is that Griffin is more of a team player than Martin was, and Griffin is far tougher than Martin. I'm talking about toughness that comes from between the ears. I have never been a fan of Kenyon Martin, but I'am a fan of Griffin's.

Look, in all of my posts I don't think that I have ever stated that Griffin is going to be a superstar or a franchise player. All I've said, is that I think he will be a good player in the NBA. I don't know how good or bad he'll be. I only know what his potential is. And as Vince Lombardi said, " Potential means you haven't done anything yet ". To say a player is incapable of doing this or that based on lack of height, when you don't really know what his height is, is illogical. I try to deal with only what I know to be facts. To do otherwise is merely stroking your own ego as someone thats more knowledgeable than anyone else.

I have somehow put myself in the position of defending a player that I don't think the Kings need. They need an above average pt guard, and I don't know that there's going to be one in the draft. There probably is, but we just don't know who it is yet. There's something about every top guard in this draft that I like. And there's something about everyone of them that I don't like. But I suspect that there's a really good pt guard hiding in one of them.

As an example. I don't know how many of you actually saw Kevin Johnson play at Cal. But he was forced to play in an offense that basicly walked the ball up the floor. Kevin didn't appear flashy or above average. He just appeared workmanlike solid. He just didn't stand out. Thats if you just watched him play one or two games. But if your were a big Cal fan, as I was at that time, and watched almost every game you could, then every once in a while, you would see the real Kevin break out and just take over a part of the game. Sometimes he would be immediately benched for not playing the way the coach ( name eludes me again, help Bricky ) wanted him to play.

My point is, that sometimes players actually play better in the NBA because their finally out from under a system that hid thier true talents. Maybe Griffin could have been a better defender in college, but being the star of the team, he was asked to play in such a way that he wouldn't aquire fouls. He certainly has the athletic ability to play better defense. Why was a player that was so aggressive on offense and rebounding, so passive on defense? Seems a little illogical to me, but I don't really know the answer.

 

[BLNINJA #81]

I've been watching Griffin in this tournament.. and I still say...

RU BI O!
RU BI O!
RU BI O!
RU BI O!
RU BI O!
!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[beb0p]

No disrespect to Miller, but he's simply not as creative as Rubio. Miller has good PG skills, but there is a Miller level and then there are the Nash and Kidd levels, and Rubio is on their level.

I see. I think where things got a little murky is when several po-Rubio posters said he's not Chris Paul or Deron, which appears like they are saying Rubio is not as great a playmaker as those guys. But now it sounds like they do believe Rubio is a great playmaker but he'll get things done in different ways than Paul or Deron.

I personally don't think Rubio is as good as Kidd as a playmaker. At least not yet. And I say that because I've seen Rubio struggled to make plays when the defense tightened or when the pick n roll isnt' working. I saw Kidd played at Cal and Kidd didn't have those problems; and he was much more dominant than Rubio; back then most college players stay four years, so Kidd was dominating many older players. I guess we'll agree to disagree on this. But I do agree that if Rubio reaches Kidd's level as a playmaker and becomes at least a respectable shooter then perhaps he should be picked higher than Griffin. I just don't think he'll be that good but I guess time will tell.

I'd rather take one that is young, proven, and his biggest question is a weird jump shot? (Kmart, our kevin martin, pedja, camby, matrix...) so many players have these either slow, funky, weird releases, and they all made it work. I believe Rubio will too with a little bit of coaching.

Point taken Oprostaj and thanks for the input. I largely agree with your post excpet the shooting part. I think if a player is tall (Peja) or is an athletic freak (Barbosa) then it doesn't matter if the shooting mechanic is funky, because Peja can get clear looks by being taller than the defender and Barbosa can get clear looks because the defender will give him space. If a player has physical advantage then the shot just needs to go in. But for Rubio, a 6'4 guard who isn't a freak, I think having a good shooting form is a must. I just don't see him being able to put pressure on the defense with his scoring until he changes his shot (which will also enable him to develop a mid-range game). I guess this too, time will tell.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I meant the Martin comparison to be more of an offensive comparison. I've pointed out before that defensively Martin blows him out of the water.

I've never denied that he couldn't develop into at least a decent positional defender, but I don't see even the physical tools to be a shot blocker. Yeah, he can get up but generally players need the reach to be shot blockers as well. He may surprise on measurement day (and if he does I'll be the first to admit I was wrong to assume), but he doesn't look especially long. The whole "he doesn't want to get into foul trouble" theory can only go so far, if he was a good defender he wouldn't need to take such a back seat and he'd know how to defend better without picking up many fouls.

I've also said he's probably going to be a good player, I've only argued that I liked Rubio more, and I think he has a better chance to be a star player at his position. I still wouldn't be upset with getting Griffin if we didn't have a shot at Rubio. At the very least he's David Lee, probably ends up being a rich man's David Lee which isn't too shabby at all.

I'm not going to discuss possible or impossible (jeez, I sound like David Stern), only what I think is likely or unlikely. I don't think it's likely that he develops into a low post scoring threat (I mean this in the traditional sense, and I mean it at least at a Boozer level, who still isn't the ideal post scorer) because he doesn't look very long nor does he have much semblance of one right now, he's more effective when he's facing the basket. I think it's unlikely that he becomes a defensive anchor or anything that special defensively because of reasons I've already mentioned. So that takes much of the impact of being a big out of the equation (outside of being a very strong rebounder), and makes a guy like Rubio just as valuable if not moreso, but it does depend on how well you think his game will translate to the NBA. I think with the more face-up/perimeter bigs in the league now, guards/perimeter players who can create are becoming more and more valuable.

It sounds like I'm trying to bring him down because I'm on the defensive here as well, but I'm merely trying to dispell the notion that he's this surefire star pick (not saying that you're saying that) like a Kevin Durant lite or something. He stands above the rest of the draft class at the moment (minus Rubio) but that's really not that impressive considering the rest of the draft. He's a good prospect, but I doubt he's on the franchise level.

 

[Spike]

He's a good prospect, but I doubt he's on the franchise level.

That's the problem with this draft. There isn't anyone who is a hands-down slam dunk. Griffin is currently BPA, but he wouldn't have been #1 last year, and I don't know that he'd be #1 next year.
From what I saw of Griffin in the tourney, he struggled when matched up against players of a similar body size. He had a couple of nice athletic moves, but nothing of note. He seems like a hard worker and attitude seems OK.
Defensively, he was borderline atrocious. He did a pretty poor job defending the pick and roll, and was constantly out-muscled on the boards. How he ended up with 23 and 16, I don't know, but he got the numbers.
I don't think my analysis of Griffin added anything that hasn't been mentioned before.

Rubio at least intrigues me from a point of need. He's young, but he's played against grown men for a long time. It's clear (at least from what I've seen and the discussion here) that the concerns for Rubio come from the physical side of the game, not necessarily the mental part. With Martin, Hawes, and others taking a majority of shots within the game, I'm more interested in Rubio as a floor-general rather than as a scorer.

That is why I'm on the Rubio bandwagon, as I see him as someone who fills a need. Right now, Griffin does not fill a need. He's the BPA. If he were too good to pass up, then you'd take him and deal with the front court rotation later. He's not though, and because of that, you draft for need, which would be Rubio. At this point, the team lacks leadership. Will we get it from a rookie? Nah, but I'm willing to bet that Rubio will want to carry the team in a few years, and have the savvy to do so.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Here's a newer mix of Rubio, for lack of a better place. Some of the stuff will have been seen, but there is alot of footage on it that hasn't been on any previous mixes.

[yt=New Rubio Mix]xSBLKrZCkeU[/yt]

Not saying that he'll be able to put the clamps on Paul, but how often does someone stay on front of that guy and pickpocket him like Rubio does at around the 9 minute mark? At the very least it shows how hard he works. Few dunks thrown in there as well, I think.

 

[sidney]

Here's a newer mix of Rubio, for lack of a better place. Some of the stuff will have been seen, but there is alot of footage on it that hasn't been on any previous mixes.

[yt=New Rubio Mix]xSBLKrZCkeU[/yt]

Not saying that he'll be able to put the clamps on Paul, but how often does someone stay on front of that guy and pickpocket him like Rubio does at around the 9 minute mark? At the very least it shows how hard he works. Few dunks thrown in there as well, I think.

That's pretty impressive. A little hard to gauge speed in there because so many of those highlights are in super slow motion. Guy sure is fun to watch

 

[rainmaker]

No Rubio won't shut down CP3, but who will? There is a reason he is one of the top 2 or 3 pg's in the world. He can get anywhere on the floor he wants. There isn't one pg in the league that can contain CP3. D Williams plays him better than any other pg, but Paul can still get around him.

Expecting Rubio to contain CP3 or DWill right now is absurd. Kobe might be the only guy in the league that could shut them down if he needed to over the last 6 mins of a game. But Rubio, at age 18, should not be expected to do that. He did better against the pg's on team usa than any other 17 or 18 yr old would have done. Rubio needs time to grow and adjust to the nba game, just like every other pg to come into the league.

 

[sidney]

No Rubio won't shut down CP3, but who will?

If he reaches anything close to his potential, Thabeet would seriously alter CP3's inside game IMO.

 

[Oprostaj]

If he reaches anything close to his potential, Thabeet would seriously alter CP3's inside game IMO.

I'm fairly certain that he was talking about players with same positions. IE, Rubio guarding CP3, Thabeet guarding D. Howard... etc...



Okay... short of not extending at the elbow and not jumping very high during his jump shots... what exactly is wrong with his shot? He is squared up to the basket, his elbow does not stick out from his body, he does follow through (without extending elbow)... all the tools are there for his shot to be reworked if it had to be. I find nothing wrong with it... he can shoot off pick and rolls, screens, he can even pull off the dribble (not recommended) His shot is quick, he doesn't wind up, he shoots more like a quick windup from his chest/hip.

 

[bajaden]

That's the problem with this draft. There isn't anyone who is a hands-down slam dunk. Griffin is currently BPA, but he wouldn't have been #1 last year, and I don't know that he'd be #1 next year.
From what I saw of Griffin in the tourney, he struggled when matched up against players of a similar body size. He had a couple of nice athletic moves, but nothing of note. He seems like a hard worker and attitude seems OK.
Defensively, he was borderline atrocious. He did a pretty poor job defending the pick and roll, and was constantly out-muscled on the boards. How he ended up with 23 and 16, I don't know, but he got the numbers.
I don't think my analysis of Griffin added anything that hasn't been mentioned before.

Rubio at least intrigues me from a point of need. He's young, but he's played against grown men for a long time. It's clear (at least from what I've seen and the discussion here) that the concerns for Rubio come from the physical side of the game, not necessarily the mental part. With Martin, Hawes, and others taking a majority of shots within the game, I'm more interested in Rubio as a floor-general rather than as a scorer.

That is why I'm on the Rubio bandwagon, as I see him as someone who fills a need. Right now, Griffin does not fill a need. He's the BPA. If he were too good to pass up, then you'd take him and deal with the front court rotation later. He's not though, and because of that, you draft for need, which would be Rubio. At this point, the team lacks leadership. Will we get it from a rookie? Nah, but I'm willing to bet that Rubio will want to carry the team in a few years, and have the savvy to do so.

I disagree with some of what you said about Griffin, but, to be honest, I'm tired of talking about him. I stated some time ago that if Rubio enters the draft, and he is as advertised, then I think he would have a bigger impact on the team than Griffin would. We have two potentially very good bigs that just need someone to get them the ball in the right place and at the right time.

I'm tired of seeing Thompson in particular, standing right under the basket with no one even close to him and being ignored. I loved Beno's excuse that sometimes you just don't see them. Well, thats what his job is, and good point guards do see the open player. Thats what makes them good.

I'm not as concerned about Rubio's suspossed slow release or lack of foot speed as some others are. I believe the things he can do far outweigh the things he can't do, and some of the things he can do, just can't be taught. I would love to see him up against NBA type competition a little more, but I suspect that will only happen if we draft him.

His ballhandling reminds me more of Pistol Pete than Jason Williams. Jason used to make a simple play look spectacular. Don't get me wrong. It was fun to watch. Rubio seems to do only what is necessary to complete the play. If a behind the back pass isn't necessary, he doesn't do it. He's also fun to watch. I wouldn't mind doing it on a regular basis.

If we were to pass on Griffin and draft Rubio, and Griffin ends up being a superstar and Rubio ends up just being one of the top five pt guards in the NBA. I will be happy with that, because this team desperately needs two things. A pt guard that is a leader and difference maker, and better defense. Getting one out of the two isn't bad.

 

[KingsCitizen]

Some added info for Rubio fans. He was just awarded as Defensive Player of the year in Spain: link

And despite playing with an injured wrist for almost the whole season, he actually tops the league in 3pt percentage at 49%. Though the Spanish 3pt line maybe a foot shorter than the NBA, this still shows that he already have a stable midrange game. And the high percentage on 3pt simply implies that his not much of a trigger happy kid but an efficient perimeter operator.

 

[Kings Faithful]

I think whatever spot we pick at, I'm pretty confident Petrie will make the best long term deciscion. If anything Id want to see Petrie pick Rubio over Griffin because that more than likely means he sees something very special in Rubio. I have complete trust in Geoffs assesments and considering his track record im not worried at all.

 

[KF8]

I think whatever spot we pick at, I'm pretty confident Petrie will make the best long term deciscion. If anything Id want to see Petrie pick Rubio over Griffin because that more than likely means he sees something very special in Rubio. I have complete trust in Geoffs assesments and considering his track record im not worried at all.

I'm also pretty confident in Petrie picking the right player. I would be happy with either Griffin or Rubio. The only thing I worry about is that there is a possibility that we could end in picking either 3rd or 4th missing the chance at either Griffin or Rubio.

 

[Vlade4GM]

I'm fairly certain that he was talking about players with same positions. IE, Rubio guarding CP3, Thabeet guarding D. Howard... etc...



Okay... short of not extending at the elbow and not jumping very high during his jump shots... what exactly is wrong with his shot? He is squared up to the basket, his elbow does not stick out from his body, he does follow through (without extending elbow)... all the tools are there for his shot to be reworked if it had to be. I find nothing wrong with it... he can shoot off pick and rolls, screens, he can even pull off the dribble (not recommended) His shot is quick, he doesn't wind up, he shoots more like a quick windup from his chest/hip.

Actually his shot in this video (for the most part) looks mildly improve than what I'm used to seeing. I haven't seen him play since he first came back from his wrist injury.

 

[Oprostaj]

Actually his shot in this video (for the most part) looks mildly improve than what I'm used to seeing. I haven't seen him play since he first came back from his wrist injury.

it looks more... normal I would say. Less of a hitch, more dead on straight with no weird roster eyed release. Like many Euro players, does not have great lift on his shot, but has decent high release and his shot is deceptively quick. I feel bad that I can't watch him more, short of being obviously very smart and adept at steals, if there's anybody that can tell me how his man or zone defense is. Meaning, does he stay in front of his man, does he ALWAYS gamble, good help defender... etc

 

[bajaden]

Based on what I saw in that video, I saw nothing dramaticly wrong with his shot. I have no idea what speed the video was run at, but he appeared to have a fairly quick release. Hard to believe that someone could actually improve from age 16 to age 18 isn't it? Who would have thought it?

What is obvious is that he's very good at running the pick and roll. He's very good at using screens to get open. And he's very good at catch and release. For starters in the NBA thats all he needs to be effective on personal offense. What remains to be seen is how well he can create for himself off the dribble. From what little I've seen of him, it appears he can be more than adequate against most defenders in the league. Lets face it, for every superior defender in the NBA at the Pt position, there are probably five just very average defenders.

My guess is, that IF, Rubio declares, and IF, we end up with the first pick in the draft, Petrie would more than likely pick Rubio. Petrie places high value on skill level. Particularly passing ability. Add in that the Kings are in desperate need of a floor leader, and I just don't think he would pass on someone that skilled.

If this would come to pass then we would have an established starting lineup with Hawes, Thompson, Martin, Noc, and Rubio. all young except for Noc. What we then need is build some depth. We would still need a backup at the C/PF position, and at the shooting guard position. Preferably good defenders at those positions. We would have two more fairly high picks to try and fill those needs along with some cap space.

 

[Vlade4GM]

it looks more... normal I would say. Less of a hitch, more dead on straight with no weird roster eyed release. Like many Euro players, does not have great lift on his shot, but has decent high release and his shot is deceptively quick. I feel bad that I can't watch him more, short of being obviously very smart and adept at steals, if there's anybody that can tell me how his man or zone defense is. Meaning, does he stay in front of his man, does he ALWAYS gamble, good help defender... etc

I wouldn't say he gambles, but he's not going to have as easy of a time picking off steals as he does in the NBA because a) they'll be better ball handlers and b) the defensive rules are much tougher. He'll play good team defense, he'll take charges, he'll play the passing lanes well, but he doesn't have great lateral quickness so he'll have a hard time staying in front of his man, but he recovers very quickly. Defensively he's more like the modern day Kidd except with youthful effort.

 

[KingGiant49erFan]

For people that have the opportunity to watch Rubio play consistently, are the mechanics of his jump shot really improving?

 

[Dime Dropper]

For people that have the opportunity to watch Rubio play consistently, are the mechanics of his jump shot really improving?

What you saw in the video is how he shoots. His form has never been as bad as some people would like to believe. His main problem is that he doesn't jump when he shoots. Can that be corrected? Probably. But again, you're not going to be drafting Rubio for his scoring. As long as he can keep the defense honest, which he can, he'll be fine.

 

[bajaden]

What you saw in the video is how he shoots. His form has never been as bad as some people would like to believe. His main problem is that he doesn't jump when he shoots. Can that be corrected? Probably. But again, you're not going to be drafting Rubio for his scoring. As long as he can keep the defense honest, which he can, he'll be fine.

Magic never jumped when he shot either. Of course he was 6'9" tall. But all he ever shot from the outside was a set shot.

 

[Bricklayer]

Magic never jumped when he shot either. Of course he was 6'9" tall. But all he ever shot from the outside was a set shot.

The of course he was 6'9" is a rather signicant of course in that case.

 

[KevinSalvadori]

Rubio. PFs emerge EVERY year. PGs with instinct and raw, unbridled talent don't often show up at the podium. I would move mountains to get Rubio, and not least of all because he is essentially the Petrie dream pick. Rubio is the future of this franchise, and if we DON'T end up with him, I'll be both suprised and highly disappointed.

Thinking of:

SG: Martin
PG: Rubio
SF: Garcia
PF: Thompson
C: Hawes

...is a great prospect, and one I would love to watch as we transition.

 

[AriesMar27]

^^^^^^garcia is not a staring sf... he's a good bench player but he should not be starting.