Well, see you in a different uniform next season IT

[Big Cuz 15]

i am only concerned with contracts that the current regime is handing out. gerbil is not the one who handed MT's contract. Derrick Williams contract is part of his rookie salary which is predetermined. Ben's contract is the same, rookie salary. Is there a way to circumvent the rookie salary scale so we can offer him less? Landry was given a kings ransom of a contract. IT could be in the same boat.

Some fuzzy math here. Landry's contract, while horrible, never broaches $7,000,000 as it is $6,750,000 for four years.

Thompson's contract started off in the $5 million range. He made $5.6 million this year, will make about $6 million next year, $6.4 million the year after that and $6.8 million in his final year. He was also a starter for the Kings when he signed that deal. And still, for a third big off the bench who can play the PF and C and is the team's best individual post defender I think that's a reasonable deal that gets a bit high at the very end. For reference I think that would be a solid deal to offer IT as well and I'd similarly feel that it's overpaying in the final year or two but still equitable for both sides.

As for Thornton, we know he was overpaid and the indictment there was obvious when he was dangled as trade bait and only found a taker in Brooklyn who only offered Jason Terry's dead weight contract and a decent role player in Reggie Evans. If Thornton were living up to his contract he would have at least been the 20 ppg scorer he fooled the front office into thinking he'd consistently be.

How many players on the Kings have contracts in line with their production?

IT has certainly outplayed his contract. Cousins has outplayed his rookie deal but it remains to be seen if he'll take that next step to justify his huge contract. My guess (based on his career arc this far and the general development curve of bigs) is that he mostly likely will, barring injury.

Derrick Williams, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Gay and certainly Landry can't be said to have brought value to the team in line with their paycheck. Some would argue JT hasn't either. Certainly Jason Terry didn't give either Brooklyn or Sacramento $5 million worth of play this season.

Reggie Evans certainly gave production at least in line with his deal. McLemore? Hard to say there. Ray McCallum? Certainly showed flashes of being more productive than his 2nd round pick salary would indicate.

And yet, only two of those contracts were negotiated by PDA - Cousins and Landry. Whether or not any other players are paid appropriately is not germane to the discussion of what the Kings are willing to pay IT or at what number they'll let him walk.

 

[Kingster]

Some fuzzy math here. Landry's contract, while horrible, never broaches $7,000,000 as it is $6,750,000 for four years.

Thompson's contract started off in the $5 million range. He made $5.6 million this year, will make about $6 million next year, $6.4 million the year after that and $6.8 million in his final year. He was also a starter for the Kings when he signed that deal. And still, for a third big off the bench who can play the PF and C and is the team's best individual post defender I think that's a reasonable deal that gets a bit high at the very end. For reference I think that would be a solid deal to offer IT as well and I'd similarly feel that it's overpaying in the final year or two but still equitable for both sides.

As for Thornton, we know he was overpaid and the indictment there was obvious when he was dangled as trade bait and only found a taker in Brooklyn who only offered Jason Terry's dead weight contract and a decent role player in Reggie Evans. If Thornton were living up to his contract he would have at least been the 20 ppg scorer he fooled the front office into thinking he'd consistently be.

How many players on the Kings have contracts in line with their production?

IT has certainly outplayed his contract. Cousins has outplayed his rookie deal but it remains to be seen if he'll take that next step to justify his huge contract. My guess (based on his career arc this far and the general development curve of bigs) is that he mostly likely will, barring injury.

Derrick Williams, Travis Outlaw, Rudy Gay and certainly Landry can't be said to have brought value to the team in line with their paycheck. Some would argue JT hasn't either. Certainly Jason Terry didn't give either Brooklyn or Sacramento $5 million worth of play this season.

Reggie Evans certainly gave production at least in line with his deal. McLemore? Hard to say there. Ray McCallum? Certainly showed flashes of being more productive than his 2nd round pick salary would indicate.

And yet, only two of those contracts were negotiated by PDA - Cousins and Landry. Whether or not any other players are paid appropriately is not germane to the discussion of what the Kings are willing to pay IT or at what number they'll let him walk.

So what's your point? My point is that if you're using the comps of Thompson, Thornton, or Landry for establishing IT consideration, $8 million is reasonable. He's better than all those guys. Now if you think those guys are overpaid, that's an entirely different discussion.

 

[Prog]

As a matter of fact, yes. Just last season, Andray Blatche finished with a 21.9 PER and re-signed with Nets for under $2 million.

It doesn't really count. The reason he did that is because he was amnestied by the Wizards and had them cover his salary beyond what he signed for with the Nets. True 20-PER free agents don't sign for 2 million a year. Can you come up with an example for a non-amnestied player with such high PER who signed for less than 9 million a year?

 

[sdballer]

It doesn't really count. The reason he did that is because he was amnestied by the Wizards and had them cover his salary beyond what he signed for with the Nets. True 20-PER free agents don't sign for 2 million a year. Can you come up with an example for a non-amnestied player with such high PER who signed for less than 9 million a year?

Off the top of my head, Lou Williams and Ersan Illyasova. Per isn't a horrible measurement but there are a lot of guys in the 18-21 range that don't deserve $9M+.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Brandon Wright: had a PER of 21.0 in 2012-13, signed as a free agent with the Mavericks that offseason for 3/$15M.
Ian Mahinmi: had a PER of 21.6 in 2009-10, signed as a free agent with the Mavericks that offseason for 6/$21M.
Ike Diogu: had a PER of 20.3 in 2008-09 (with us), signed as a free agent with the Hornets that offseason for 1/$885K.

I'd look to see if there are others, but I'm busy: my turn to make supper tonight.

 

[LPKingsFan]

It doesn't really count. The reason he did that is because he was amnestied by the Wizards and had them cover his salary beyond what he signed for with the Nets. True 20-PER free agents don't sign for 2 million a year. Can you come up with an example for a non-amnestied player with such high PER who signed for less than 9 million a year?

In just the last couple years, Brandan Wright (21 PER in 12-13, re-signed for $5 million/year), Ryan Anderson (21.2 PER in 11-12, signed for $8.5 million), Ilyasova (20.5 PER in 11-12, re-signed for $7.9 million)

 

[funkykingston]

So what's your point? My point is that if you're using the comps of Thompson, Thornton, or Landry for establishing IT consideration, $8 million is reasonable. He's better than all those guys. Now if you think those guys are overpaid, that's an entirely different discussion.

My points were that (1) the current front office didn't negotiate their contracts making them bad points for comparison and (2) even if they are used for comparison, the numbers posted here were incorrect.

Here are the four data points we have regarding D'Allesandro and his decision making on contracts.

(1) Cousins was extended with a deal that starts at $13.7 million next season
(2) Iguodala was offered a deal rumored to be in the $11 million range
(2) Tyreke Evans was moved in a sign-and-trade after the FO declined to match a 4 year/$44 million deal
(3) Carl Landry was signed to a 4 year/$27 million dollar deal

What can we reasonably glean from those decisions?

I'd say the first inference is that the new management views DeMarcus as their franchise cornerstone, something that has been reinforced in interviews etc. Also that they didn't feel Tyreke Evans was a critical piece going forward and/or not worth the offer made by the Pelicans. Again based on PDA's answers in interviews it seems the team would have liked to have Evans back but had a number in mind at which they would retain him. Obviously the final data point would indicate that D'Allesandro thought Landry had considerable worth to this Kings team. In what role I'm not sure. Did he see him as a long term starting PF next to Cousins? If so I have real concerns about his judgement. Did he bring him in as a veteran that he hoped would aid chemistry? Or at the behest of his head coach who knew Landry and his game well? Or as a potential bench scorer/spot starter who can put up points? Some combination of these? This is the one area I haven't heard enough from D'Allesandro to evaluate. But the the value of the contract is there to see.

How much does PDA like IT? I don't know. But unlike Cousins (and like Tyreke) he has said that there is a number in his head for matching potential contracts. He can see a scenario in which Thomas is allowed to walk or dealt for spare parts in a sign-and-trade. I think that's telling.

To me the biggest question is whether PDA values IT to the same degree that he valued Landry. The contracts of everyone else on the team are largely irrelevant IMO, except in the sense of calculating the luxury tax threshold.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Players who had a PER of 20.5 or higher in a contract year, and signed for less than $9M as a free agent include, but are probably not limited to:

Brandon Wright
Ian Mahinmi
Ryan Anderson
Ersan Ilyasova

I only went back ten years... I personally wouldn't consider Thomas to be better than more than one of those guys.

 

[Chupacabra]

Maybe Landry was IT insurance after all. My god that contract is horrible! I was halfway through thinking im glad we have Landry until I typed in the period on the 1st sentence.

 

[Bricklayer]

I only went back ten years... I personally wouldn't consider Thomas to be better than more than one of those guys.

You keep on saying things like that.

But Thomas is >>>> Mahimmi, >>> Wright, >> Ilyasova (with a possible >). We finally get in his range with Anderson maybe.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

:: shrugs ::

To put it charitably, I don't see it that way. I probably wouldn't take Thomas over any of those guys.

 

[Bricklayer]

:: shrugs ::

To put it charitably, I don't see it that way. I probably wouldn't take Thomas over any of those guys.

Which is just not realistic as to his value around the league, which is what we have to be concerned with when it comes to market value.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I think his value around the league remains to be seen. YMMV.

 

[SacKings2002NBAChampions]

In my NBA 2k14 games in association mode, IT always end up with the lakers at the end of 2014 season

Bye bye IT

But seriously though, there's no way in hell he gets paid more than 6 million. He's a sixth man and no other team in the NBA will pay for his antics/lack of defense. He's like Bobby Jackson reincarnated just less effort on defense. Bobby Jackson was the perfect 6th man and I believe that IT can be the best 6th man in the league above Crawford. IT has room to grow. He has learned to pass a bit more and be more calm on the ball while giving time for his teammates to catch up with the flow of the game.

Having an impact player like IT off the bench is what makes a team a playoff team but beyond that...a Championship contender. With that, you also need two strong big men. One who can be your rim protector (we lack that, praying on draft) and one who will be your post player and make mid-range jumpers and of course that's Cousins who is the best inside post player in the league. The next part is have two great jump shooters in your SF and SG position who are 3 & D players. We are somewhat there as Gay is average at 3 pt shots and on defense however he knows how to put the ball on the floor. He's a similar player to Batum from Portland just less defense oriented but he has the athleticism for it. Brings us to Ben Mac now....He's got all the potential to be the 3&D guy and some.. The kid knows how to put the ball on the floor and he can drive with extreme athleticism. His defense has improved and so has his overall. Give him another season or two and he'll be a star on the rise like Kawhi Leonard. Next, you need a facilitator PG who is a pass first guard and a floor general. Ray Mac has the potential to be this player; however, I have a hard time seeing him stop Westbrook, CP3, Lillard, Parker, Bledsoe, MCW, etc. So, that's a big Q and that'll be the interesting part of this upcoming draft. Do we take a gamble on Smart or get lucky with Exum and try to do a trade for a mid-round pick to get our big man rim protector or what. Last thing is...EXPERIENCED players. We need to sign some experienced players in the off-season. There's some good ones coming. Marion, Carter, Blair etc.

At this point, if Gay and IT stay, I think we have a good foundation. The big Q's are whether Ray and Ben Mac will grow as individual players this offseason. If so, we have a great team forming here. IT is the 6th man and a couple good bigs off the bench in Evans and JT and D-Will who can play two positions and bring that spark off the bench. The only thing we need is a rim protector if Ray Mac can be that future PG and a couple experienced players.
The rest is up to Malone to make this squad mesh well together.

 

[kingsnation]

Not the way he played for the Mavs this year.

Unfortunately, I just don't see any Monta-led teams getting past where the Mavs were this year... the 8th seed. Not bad enough for the lottery, not good enough to actually make an extended playoff run.

 

[mac]

Unfortunately, I just don't see any Monta-led teams getting past where the Mavs were this year... the 8th seed. Not bad enough for the lottery, not good enough to actually make an extended playoff run.

Starting SG doesn't equate to being the team's star player/ leader.

 

[kingsnation]

Starting SG doesn't equate to being the team's star player/ leader.

I agree. But I believe that he and Dirk shared that role this year with perhaps Monta taking even more of a leadership role as the year went on.

 

[The_Jamal]

Brandon Wright: had a PER of 21.0 in 2012-13, signed as a free agent with the Mavericks that offseason for 3/$15M.
Ian Mahinmi: had a PER of 21.6 in 2009-10, signed as a free agent with the Mavericks that offseason for 6/$21M.
Ike Diogu: had a PER of 20.3 in 2008-09 (with us), signed as a free agent with the Hornets that offseason for 1/$885K.

I'd look to see if there are others, but I'm busy: my turn to make supper tonight.

Say it with me now! Sample size and minutes. You'l notice that the second Ian got consistent back-up minutes, his numbers indicated what he is; a good back-up C. Diogu was the same exact way, except his 29 games and 215 minutes that season were a distinct outlier to whom he actually was as a player.

While Iv'e long advocated for Wright to get 30+MPG for 3 years now, he still suffers from Sample size and minutes issues. Although, I believe he can produce with big minutes, as he's had 3 years of some of the bench rotation player productions in the league.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

I answered the question asked, not the question asked, plus your arbitrary qualification. He didn't ask, "Who had such a high PER, and played X amount of minutes?" He asked, "Who had such a high PER, and their next contract was less than nine million dollars?" I answered the question.

 

[Prog]

I answered the question asked, not the question asked, plus your arbitrary qualification. He didn't ask, "Who had such a high PER, and played X amount of minutes?" He asked, "Who had such a high PER, and their next contract was less than nine million dollars?" I answered the question.

Thank you both - you for answering the question, and Jamal for pointing out this important qualifier. I think the data shows that signing IT for the 6 million / year that most people here are asking for is very unrealistic. Even 8 m/y is going to be an outlier. If this is indeed where things are I can only hope that the Kings don't match such high offers. IT can be a fantastic 6th man, but I wouldn't build my offense around him, nor pay him 8+ m/y. The fact that someone else probably would doesn't change anything.

 

[Kingster]

My points were that (1) the current front office didn't negotiate their contracts making them bad points for comparison and (2) even if they are used for comparison, the numbers posted here were incorrect.

Here are the four data points we have regarding D'Allesandro and his decision making on contracts.

(1) Cousins was extended with a deal that starts at $13.7 million next season
(2) Iguodala was offered a deal rumored to be in the $11 million range
(2) Tyreke Evans was moved in a sign-and-trade after the FO declined to match a 4 year/$44 million deal
(3) Carl Landry was signed to a 4 year/$27 million dollar deal

What can we reasonably glean from those decisions?

I'd say the first inference is that the new management views DeMarcus as their franchise cornerstone, something that has been reinforced in interviews etc. Also that they didn't feel Tyreke Evans was a critical piece going forward and/or not worth the offer made by the Pelicans. Again based on PDA's answers in interviews it seems the team would have liked to have Evans back but had a number in mind at which they would retain him. Obviously the final data point would indicate that D'Allesandro thought Landry had considerable worth to this Kings team. In what role I'm not sure. Did he see him as a long term starting PF next to Cousins? If so I have real concerns about his judgement. Did he bring him in as a veteran that he hoped would aid chemistry? Or at the behest of his head coach who knew Landry and his game well? Or as a potential bench scorer/spot starter who can put up points? Some combination of these? This is the one area I haven't heard enough from D'Allesandro to evaluate. But the the value of the contract is there to see.

How much does PDA like IT? I don't know. But unlike Cousins (and like Tyreke) he has said that there is a number in his head for matching potential contracts. He can see a scenario in which Thomas is allowed to walk or dealt for spare parts in a sign-and-trade. I think that's telling.

To me the biggest question is whether PDA values IT to the same degree that he valued Landry. The contracts of everyone else on the team are largely irrelevant IMO, except in the sense of calculating the luxury tax threshold.

This is what I get from the data points and how they affect the IT discussion. Cousins doesn't tell you anything; he's in a class by himself. The Iggy data point is iffy because it's a rumored $11 mill deal. If the Iggy data point is credible, that would indicate they want to pay IT less than $11 mill, but it gives you no clue as to how much less. Again, with the Tyreke data point, it indicates they would pay IT less than $11 mill, but again the data point gives you no clue as to how much less. Lastly, with Landry, he indicates the low end of the range for IT. Sorry, but if anybody believe Landry is better than IT, we agree to disagree. Landry is getting $6.75 mill per year. In conclusion, the range for IT is: $6.75 mill < IT < $11 mill.

As for PDA having a number in his head and it is "telling", telling of what exactly? That he has an idea of what he's worth? I hope so. I'd be concerned if he didn't. That he isn't willing to go above $X? I would hope so again; otherwise, we have an undisciplined numbskull for a GM.

 

[Boogie-havoc]

Is there any precedent of a free agent coming from a PER 20 season not signing a contract for 9m or more a year? I think enough GMs will be blinded by IT's offensive prowess to factor him in as the defensive liability that he is (while still probably being better on D than this Max-contract player).

Personally, I'm fine letting him walk in a sign & trade. He's just not suitable for the type of basketball that I like watching (think Spurs-like, with lots of ball movement and solid D by everyone).

But my question is this.

WHO exactly is gonna try and get him as a starting PG which would mean around 7-8mil per year, and NOT a 6th man off the bench(more towards 4-6mil per year), and what is their cap situation?

The way I see in this current timeframe there's about 3 teams who both have the need and could view IT as a starting PG, and also have the means to offer him a contract of 8mil per year.

Milwaukee, Lakers, and Orlando.

The rest of the teams either only view IT as a 6th man due to having a starting caliber PG for the foreseeable future (In which case his salary range would be low enough for us to automatically match and be able to keep him) - or just flat out can't offer him anything other then MLE.

Lakers have no direction really, so god knows what they're up to - they definitely have a need at PG, and have the cap to spend - they will try hard for Bledsoe but assumig they fail I think IT is the next target in line, as even if they might want to punt next season too - they still need to put up a somewhat respectable team to please Kobe, aswell as meet the minimum salary demands.

Orlando has Jameer but can cut him for a low amount, although a lot depends on the pingpong balls and where they end up drafting - 4th or lower and I think they take one of the PGs available. If they cut Nelson IT might be the only real FA candidate left for them, and he could be a good fit next to Oladipo too.

Milwaukee has Brandon Knight and Nate Wolters, which means they really don't have a real direction at PG and could very well target IT if their new management and coaching staff takes a liking to him. They want to continue to suck and not really compete so IT fits the mold and he's a great lockerromm guy and leader which is an added + for any team that wants him.

I can see all those teams giving IT around 7mil per year, maybe 8 if we're stretching it - aswell as the starting PG job.

I think if those teams choose other direction either via draft or with what they currently have as far as being a starter and view IT as a 6th man like the rest of the league - IT will be fielded with full MLE offers (5mil per year) - and we would likely need to offer a tiny bit more then that in order to keep him.

I expect IT to be available to us for around 6 mil per year, which is something we definitely need to match in my opinion.

 

[MassachusettsKingsFan]

Lakers actually make a lot of sense. With Nash's health being so unpredictable, IT can be both a bench player and a starter from game to game, and he's the sort of player who gives you the same production in either role.

And when Nash moves on, IT can be the sixth man everyone dreams about when they inevitably lure someone like Kyrie Irving, Rajon Rondo, etc. there.

 

[funkykingston]

Lakers actually make a lot of sense. With Nash's health being so unpredictable, IT can be both a bench player and a starter from game to game, and he's the sort of player who gives you the same production in either role.

And when Nash moves on, IT can be the sixth man everyone dreams about when they inevitably lure someone like Kyrie Irving, Rajon Rondo, etc. there.

Here's my issue with that notion. IF the Lakers see Thomas as a band-aid starter and an eventual sixth man, they have to know that if their plan comes to fruition they are paying $7-8 million or more for a backup PG/sixth man. The BEST sixth man in the league this year is making $5.2 million this year and Crawford's deal tops out at $5.6 million. And the guy who has been one of the top sixth men in the league (and the third best player on championship teams) for years is slated to make $7 million the next two years. Is Thomas a better sixth man (not just better but significantly better and deserving of a bigger contract) than Crawford and Ginobili?

No, I have to think that the only way IT gets a contract that earns him $7 million or more per year is if a team looks at him as their long term PG solution and the guy that can be the lead guard on a playoff/contending team.

Personally I don't view him that way. We'll find out in the offseason if other teams do.

 

[Boogie-havoc]

That's a great point regarding the Lakers - cause eventually their clearcut number 1 goal in mind as they do ANY type of trade/move, is directed strictly at the 2015 free agent class.

So handing out IT a full length contract valued as a starting PG, might not be in their favor when the time comes and they wish to pull a Miami Heat 2010 - as they might find it not easy moving IT on that contract next year to another team.

If they do make a move for IT, I would assume it'll make sense for it to either be at a reasonable price that we too could afford - or it'll be for a shorter term contract, which probably would not appease IT himself.

 

[Prog]

How about starting a poll asking forum members to guess IT's next contract (in avg million/year)? I think it would be interesting to see what's the "winning number" and later compare to what he actually gets

 

[funkykingston]

Cap space is an interesting thing. For the Lakers it's pure gold. They are an organization with a long winning history in what is likely the top ranked destination city for players for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is exposure and marketing/off the court opportunities. For the Kings it's fools gold. Superstars aren't jumping ship to sign with the Kings no matter how much cap room they have. So the team ends up overpaying for third and fourth tier free agents with it.

I'd be fairly surprised if the Lakers through their hat in the ring to compete for IT's services at all and almost shocked if they did so at anything beyond MLE level money. In short, I don't think the Lakers are going to be the team that makes the offer that Sacramento has to decide on matching.

Maybe it's Orlando or Milwaukee. Or maybe (like last year with Tyreke) it's a bit of a surprise team.

 

[LPKingsFan]

How about starting a poll asking forum members to guess IT's next contract (in avg million/year)? I think it would be interesting to see what's the "winning number" and later compare to what he actually gets

I made one last year for Evans, but it was more of a "what are you willing to match" poll rather than predict the contract number, although IIRC the forum consensus was pretty close to what he was eventually offered.

I was thinking of doing the same for IT, but wanted to wait until after the draft to more accurately assess team needs. Feel free to do one now if you want, but I think predictions of what other teams may offer will also be influenced by the draft (say, if the Magic or Bucks draft Exum).

 

[CurseOfTheSalmons]

Milwaukee, Lakers, and Orlando.

i don't really see milwaukee. nate wolters is a stud, and i think they'd see isaiah as a more expensive brandon knight. i think philadelphia may be interested. they could play isaiah thomas next to carter-williams, and nerlens noel can make up for his defense.

 

[Gary]

i don't really see milwaukee. nate wolters is a stud, and i think they'd see isaiah as a more expensive brandon knight. i think philadelphia may be interested. they could play isaiah thomas next to carter-williams, and nerlens noel can make up for his defense.

I can see them getting away with having IT as a SG there. MCW would guard the scoring threat ant IT could save his energy for transition plays. MCW is good enough defensively to make it work (maybe).