2014 Draft Prospects:
- Thread starter bajaden
- Start date
You could be right. I just can't get PDA's comment about wanting to improve our perimeter shooting as a priority. Not our only priority, but certainly one of them, and if you think Stauskas is the answer, then you draft him. I'm always amazed when people always use the "I'm not sure he'll be able to play defense" as one of the arguments against a player, but never mention it when its a player they like. Not talking about you specifically. For instance, someone will tout Saric and never mention defense, but when it comes to another player, its one of the first things they bring up. Of course its natural to pick and choose stats than help one's argument. Been known to do it myself at times.
Lol. He will be, because my mock loves international players and the unknown a lot.
I also don't want to gloss over Stauska's defense--he's got an awful steal rate (1.1% over two years), and according to Kevin Pelton dating back to 2003 only Jason Kapono and Joe Crawford had steal rates that low. His rebounding is also very shoddy. He also carried a defensive rating of 109.0 this year, per sport-reference: that's an awful individual number, but also one of the worst among his team: only Zak Irvin and Cole McConnell were worse. His rookie year was no different: he was the WORST defender on his team (nope, Corey Person only played 24 minutes and doesn't count).
That's huge. Stauskas competes on defense and is lovable and efficient on offense, but because he's broad-based awful in many defensive metrics I have very little (any?) hope for him on this end.
If we're comparing to JJ Redick's days back at Duke, Redick had defensive win shares of double or over double of that of Stauskas (1-1.5 for Redick, compared to 0.55 for Stauskas).
So, while I love Stauska's offense a ton, he might taketh away on the other end. He just doesn't have the tools.
But, I still think the league is at a phase where they value the familiar, and the offense, and Stauskas playing for Izzo and having possibly no weaknesses on offense (besides attacking the rim more, but that's not his role) makes him a lottery pick, easily. Just, color me skeptical once we take defense into account.
I also don't want to gloss over Stauska's defense--he's got an awful steal rate (1.1% over two years), and according to Kevin Pelton dating back to 2003 only Jason Kapono and Joe Crawford had steal rates that low. His rebounding is also very shoddy. He also carried a defensive rating of 109.0 this year, per sport-reference: that's an awful individual number, but also one of the worst among his team: only Zak Irvin and Cole McConnell were worse. His rookie year was no different: he was the WORST defender on his team (nope, Corey Person only played 24 minutes and doesn't count).
That's huge. Stauskas competes on defense and is lovable and efficient on offense, but because he's broad-based awful in many defensive metrics I have very little (any?) hope for him on this end.
If we're comparing to JJ Redick's days back at Duke, Redick had defensive win shares of double or over double of that of Stauskas (1-1.5 for Redick, compared to 0.55 for Stauskas).
So, while I love Stauska's offense a ton, he might taketh away on the other end. He just doesn't have the tools.
But, I still think the league is at a phase where they value the familiar, and the offense, and Stauskas playing for Izzo and having possibly no weaknesses on offense (besides attacking the rim more, but that's not his role) makes him a lottery pick, easily. Just, color me skeptical once we take defense into account.
I really like Elfrid Payton, he's being underrated because he can't shoot (poor 3pt and free throw percentages) and he played for a small school but he has a lot of attributes I value highly -- defensive intensity, boards well for a guard, has a killer crossover to get to the basket and plenty of speed in the open court. And he's got great size for a PG prospect -- matches up well with bigger points like John Wall and Russell Westbrook physically. Rajon Rondo is probably the comparison you'll hear the most but he's perhaps a little more scoring oriented and less talented as a playmaker. Rondo is highly regarded now, but he had a lot of the same knocks on him which lowered his stock as a prospect as well. I actually thought Rondo was a top 10 prospect in that draft but I was pretty optimistic on that point and he ended up going 21. And I do see a lot of the same qualities in Payton.
You're going to hear question marks about the quality of competition he faced in college but if you're looking at skillsets rather than stats, I think an argument could be made that his skills will translate better to the NBA than a guard like Marcus Smart who's only real calling cards are defense and bullying his way to the free throw line. They played together last summer on the U-19 team and if you compare their numbers in those games against the same competition, Payton held his own I think. Smart scored more points but Payton shot a better percentage from the floor and if you break it down even further, Payton was 0 for 4 behind the arc while Smart was 6 for 21. There's something to be said for a player who knows his limitations and plays within them.
The biggest concern I have about Payton is his tendency to turn the ball over. He plays fast and while he's a good ballhandler, sometimes he gets himself in situations that he can't dribble or pass his way out of. Aside from being the sole playmaker on the team (nobody else averaged even 2 assists) he was also the leading scorer. Carrying both roles tends to result in a lot of turnovers at any level. John Wall had the same problem in his one year at Kentucky (4 TOs against 6.4 assists per game) and while his overall talent is good enough to balance it out, he still has a rather pedestrian A/TO ratio and is one of the league leaders in TOs.
FIBA U-19 Stats page links: (Smart) (Payton)
You're going to hear question marks about the quality of competition he faced in college but if you're looking at skillsets rather than stats, I think an argument could be made that his skills will translate better to the NBA than a guard like Marcus Smart who's only real calling cards are defense and bullying his way to the free throw line. They played together last summer on the U-19 team and if you compare their numbers in those games against the same competition, Payton held his own I think. Smart scored more points but Payton shot a better percentage from the floor and if you break it down even further, Payton was 0 for 4 behind the arc while Smart was 6 for 21. There's something to be said for a player who knows his limitations and plays within them.
The biggest concern I have about Payton is his tendency to turn the ball over. He plays fast and while he's a good ballhandler, sometimes he gets himself in situations that he can't dribble or pass his way out of. Aside from being the sole playmaker on the team (nobody else averaged even 2 assists) he was also the leading scorer. Carrying both roles tends to result in a lot of turnovers at any level. John Wall had the same problem in his one year at Kentucky (4 TOs against 6.4 assists per game) and while his overall talent is good enough to balance it out, he still has a rather pedestrian A/TO ratio and is one of the league leaders in TOs.
FIBA U-19 Stats page links: (Smart) (Payton)
There are two types of college players that tend to have the potential beyond their current performance levels. One is the 6'10" to 7'0" athletic freak who could be molded into a 100-dunk per season, shotblocking and rebounding machine at the NBA level given the proper NBA workout regiment. Then there's the 6'1" to 6'4" point guard or combo guard with the insanely long wingspan, large hands, insane rebounding ability, good finishing/foul drawing and good stealing ability. These guys, purportedly, will figure out how to utilize their athleticism in far better ways in the faster-paced, more spread out NBA court, and have the ability to be an NBA lead guard.
Payton falls cleanly into the latter category. He's the only player in the draft that's really like this. I've seen informed mocks that have had him as high as 5th or 6th in the draft. I'm still skeptical (have him at 20th; but hey, that's better than DX or nbadraft.net), but I really can see the potential here. I think he can be a major steal. Eric Bledsoe and Westbrook weren't exactly stat-stuffing at college either. There's that allure that he can be really, really good, and I have second guessed my mock many a time, because there's something about athletic guards and centers --there's a lot more than meets the eye.
Payton falls cleanly into the latter category. He's the only player in the draft that's really like this. I've seen informed mocks that have had him as high as 5th or 6th in the draft. I'm still skeptical (have him at 20th; but hey, that's better than DX or nbadraft.net), but I really can see the potential here. I think he can be a major steal. Eric Bledsoe and Westbrook weren't exactly stat-stuffing at college either. There's that allure that he can be really, really good, and I have second guessed my mock many a time, because there's something about athletic guards and centers --there's a lot more than meets the eye.
It's probably also worth noting that he (Payton) was selected as the college defensive player of the year this year: Lefty Driesell Award.
I have a few players that I'm really high on. Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, Vonleh, and Payton make up that list. That doesn't mean that's the order I would draft them in. It just happens to be the guys I really like in this draft. Nobody really stands out except for Payton.
Knowing that Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, and Vonleh will likely all be gone before we pick, I would not mind trading back and unloading Landry's contract while doing so.
I think a deal with Phoenix or Chicago could be advantageous.
7th pick
Landry
for
14th pick
18th pick/27th pick
OR
7th pick
Landry
for
16th pick
19th pick
In both of these deals, we rid ourselves of Landry's horrible contract and give us an opportunity to draft Payton along with another solid player (Harris, Young, Stauskas, Anderson, Saric, Hood, Robinson III, LaVine, and Capela could all be possible options).
Awhile ago, I really wanted the Kings to make a deal like this where they trade for Phoenix's 14th and 18th pick and select Cauley-Stein and Payton, but unfortunately, Cauley-Stein has opted to remain at Kentucky. I would have been ecstatic walking away with those two players from the draft. Both of them are very tall, long, athletic, and they happen to be very good defenders. Sigh....
Knowing that Embiid, Wiggins, Exum, Randle, and Vonleh will likely all be gone before we pick, I would not mind trading back and unloading Landry's contract while doing so.
I think a deal with Phoenix or Chicago could be advantageous.
7th pick
Landry
for
14th pick
18th pick/27th pick
OR
7th pick
Landry
for
16th pick
19th pick
In both of these deals, we rid ourselves of Landry's horrible contract and give us an opportunity to draft Payton along with another solid player (Harris, Young, Stauskas, Anderson, Saric, Hood, Robinson III, LaVine, and Capela could all be possible options).
Awhile ago, I really wanted the Kings to make a deal like this where they trade for Phoenix's 14th and 18th pick and select Cauley-Stein and Payton, but unfortunately, Cauley-Stein has opted to remain at Kentucky. I would have been ecstatic walking away with those two players from the draft. Both of them are very tall, long, athletic, and they happen to be very good defenders. Sigh....
I think the most difficult part of discussing a mock draft for us is our 2nd and 3rd best players future is entirely up in the air. Basically every combination leads to a different need for a what that team needs. Just Cuz needs a volume scorer and a #2 option to play off him. Just Gay and Cuz needs a PG, defense, floor spacing and low USG players. Just IT and Cuz needs a low USG defensive PF. All 3 need extremely low USG players, defense, and floor spacing.
Which leads me to believe that PDA doesn't know what he's doing. Unselfish basketball is nice but if the plan is to continue to trot out the Cuz/IT/Gay trio, there aren't even enough opportunities to handle the ball for "passers" to be a number one priority. Shooters would be nice but again, at what position. We supposedly have a SG that should excel at shooting at some point. So better shooting backup 1/2 and backup 3 are major priorities. All of that in front of defense?
If we're not planning on re-signing IT (I know it's not possible to know for certain), I'd be happy taking Smart at 7, going after Ed Davis as a realistic shot-blocking PF signing, or Avery (or both, though it's impossible to know how that'd work - well not impossible, but I don't have the time to look up potential cap space situations). You'd hope that Ben takes a significant step forward during the off-season and can give you 12-14ppg as a reliable outside threat. Try to dump Landry somehow (unlikely).
Smart/McCallum
Ben/Avery
Rudy/Williams
Davis/Evans/Acy
Cousins/Thompson
Is it a contending team? Obviously not, but a step in the right direction, at least defensively. Someone can make a better stab at that than me re contracts etc., but as a general premise, replacing IT with Smart is a massive upgrade defensively and contrary to what some here think, I actually believe Smart has quite good passing instincts. Just needs to work on shot selection and the shot itself - though I think with better shot selection those %s will naturally go up. Adding Davis or Avery, or both, is another defensive upgrade. Retain Rudy and surely it's a more competitive group than last years.
Smart/McCallum
Ben/Avery
Rudy/Williams
Davis/Evans/Acy
Cousins/Thompson
Is it a contending team? Obviously not, but a step in the right direction, at least defensively. Someone can make a better stab at that than me re contracts etc., but as a general premise, replacing IT with Smart is a massive upgrade defensively and contrary to what some here think, I actually believe Smart has quite good passing instincts. Just needs to work on shot selection and the shot itself - though I think with better shot selection those %s will naturally go up. Adding Davis or Avery, or both, is another defensive upgrade. Retain Rudy and surely it's a more competitive group than last years.
If Rudy were to opt out and sign with someone else, and we don't match an offer to IT, we'll be at 47 million. Add in our rookie at just under 3 million and we're at 50 million. If the salary cap is 56 or thereabouts, that leaves us just 6 million to make a FA signing, so enough for one of Avery or Davis, but probably not both. Our best hope is probably that Gay opts in or we re-sign him to a longer term, more reasonable deal. We'd be over the cap, but I believe we'd then have the MLE to use? Which is essentially what we'd have if we don't retain Gay and IT...
At this point everyone is expecting salary cap to be around $62 million.
You can have either MLE or cap space: teams start every off-season with provisional MLE, that counts against team salary and they have to explicitly waive it, though teams that still have more than MLE under the cap, don't have to. If a team used cap space to sign other team's FA and is left with no space under the cap, they have so-called "room exception" at their disposal: for next year it would be $2.732 million next season, though it can only be used for 1- or 2-year contracts.
You can have either MLE or cap space: teams start every off-season with provisional MLE, that counts against team salary and they have to explicitly waive it, though teams that still have more than MLE under the cap, don't have to. If a team used cap space to sign other team's FA and is left with no space under the cap, they have so-called "room exception" at their disposal: for next year it would be $2.732 million next season, though it can only be used for 1- or 2-year contracts.
Minus both Gay and IT, the Kings by my count should have around $10 million to work with.
I think we can sort of narrow it down a little bit. Even if Gay is going to opt out and sign elsewhere, there isn't really an SF in the Kings range that would make any sort of sense. I think we can safely say the Kings won't be drafting one, unless they win the lottery and get into the top 3. I view Gordon as a PF... not a potential Gay replacement.
Then there is IT, who, unlike Gay, is really the KINGS choice. So they should have a pretty good idea going into the draft of what is going to happen with him. They have a number, and it should be pretty easy to estimate if their number is above or below market value. With Evans, it was way below, and they had to know that. If their number with Thomas is 5 or 6 million, they have to know that it likely isn't enough to keep him.
Of course, Ben and Cousins are here for a while. No SF's in our range ... I think the pick has to be a big or a point guard. I've said numerous times I don't think the Kings are high on IT. Smart, Exum, and to a lesser extent Ennis are really good guesses. And then you have a whole host of interesting big men in our range that the Kings could take to fill one need or another. They could go McDermott to add shooting, which would drive me crazy, personally, but it's an option. Vonleh, Saric, Gordon, etc. will be in play.
At this point, I'm looking at 4 guys I like for our pick from a realistic standpoint. Exum, Gordon, Vonleh, and Smart, in that order, but it's very close. I expect to flip Gordon and Vonleh multiple times before the draft rolls around.
All this talk about Saric and Stauskas is moot. The Kings are going to get a top three pick. 
Embiid, Wiggins, or Parker; that is the question.....
Oh yes it is.
Embiid, Wiggins, or Parker; that is the question.....
Oh yes it is.
I think he could be a starter at the PG position. Not immediately of course, but in a couple of years. Very good defender at the college level, but like a lot of other players, he has a very suspect outside shot. He's a good athlete and has very good length for the position. He's not a good finisher at the basket, which is sort of unusual, since he has very good hops, and is an extremely good ballhandler. He is more of a pass first PG, who is very unselfish. He has the question mark hanging over his head that all mid-level conference players have. How will he stack up against top talent on a regular basis. He has to improve his outside shot, and he has to get stronger. He's as skinny as a rail.
S
No, because Ben is a far more rounded prospect. He's learning to put the ball on the floor and is extremely explosive. Every commentator that I've heard talk about Ben when we played against them had nothing but praises for the kid and called him "a future star in the league"
There's a reason why our FA is so big on him. He's going to be a freak athlete who is well-rounded and level headed. Hard to find those in this league.
Ben also has a lot of defensive upside that he's got the edge because of his elite athleticism and hard work ethic. Nik will be a great shooter. One of the best in the league. He might even turn out to be a poor man's Klay Thompson.
There's a reason why our FA is so big on him. He's going to be a freak athlete who is well-rounded and level headed. Hard to find those in this league.
Ben also has a lot of defensive upside that he's got the edge because of his elite athleticism and hard work ethic. Nik will be a great shooter. One of the best in the league. He might even turn out to be a poor man's Klay Thompson.
It scares me when mid-conference players don't have an outside shot. Guys like Reke, Wade, Wall all dominated college ball at the highest level, so you knew they could survive without the shot in the NBA. While I like Payton as a defensive prospect, you just don't know if his offensive numbers are a byproduct of him being physically and athletically superior than everyone else. Also, what happens to the defense when he's guarding guys who are much stronger/physical/athletic than him? Guys who can shoot, especially off their own bounce, tend to translate well at any level with Lillard of course being the most recent example.