It scares me when mid-conference players don't have an outside shot. Guys like Reke, Wade, Wall all dominated college ball at the highest level, so you knew they could survive without the shot in the NBA. While I like Payton as a defensive prospect, you just don't know if his offensive numbers are a byproduct of him being physically and athletically superior than everyone else. Also, what happens to the defense when he's guarding guys who are much stronger/physical/athletic than him? Guys who can shoot, especially off their own bounce, tend to translate well at any level with Lillard of course being the most recent example.
It depends what you're looking for I guess. People like shooting because it seems like an easily translatable skill. The basket and ball are the same size, the three point line is a little further in the NBA but otherwise you'd think good college shooters will be good NBA shooters. That's not always the case though -- you also want to look at how quickly they get their shot off and how high their release point is. Then there's the matter of where they're shooting from and whether they shoot better spotted up or off the bounce. But anyway, that's all well and good if it's what you're looking for but you can't just avoid defensive role-players and/or playmakers because you don't know how to evaluate their skillset. I think when you look at a guy like Elfrid Payton you want to know how he handles the bread and butter plays of NBA offense -- can he navigate a pick and roll, can he consistently make a good post entry pass, can he find shooters on the wings or does he have tunnel vision in the paint. In all of those areas I'm more confident in Elfrid Payton than I would be in Marcus Smart. Sure it bothers me that he shot 60% from the line as a Junior but I'm also one of the fans who believes a Rondo type of player would really help us and that's who Payton is.
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