Why tanking does not work - article

[Tetsujin]

Since were talking about tanking, and thus, indirectly the draft, I thought I'd mention that there are two college games on today, both on ESPN that bear watching, if your into pre-judging a possible future pick. Kentucky is playing Michigan St. at 4:30 PM pacific, and is followed by Duke vrs Kansas at 6:30 PM pacific. These two games alone feature Andrew Wiggins, projected by many as the 1st pick in the draft. Joel Embiid, a 7 ft shotblocker, and projected top ten, Wayne Selden, a 6'6" SG projected in the first round, Perry Ellis, another possible first rounder, Adreian Payne, the 6'10" PF/C who is projected in the first round, Gary Harris, a sharp shooting 6'4" combo guard and a first rounder, Julius Randle, the highly rated 6'10" PF who many think could go first, Willie Cauley Stein, the 7 foot shotblocker a mid first rounder, Andrew Harrison, the 6'5" PG and a first rounder, James Young, a 6'6.5" SF that the scouts have been raving about, and a first rounder, Rodney Hood, a 6'8" SF, a first rounder, Jabari Parker, a 6'8" SF who is also in the running for the first pick in the draft, Rasheed Sulaimon, a 6'4", very athletic SG who should go in the middle of the first round, and Quinn Cook, the very talented 6'2" Pg from Duke.

All these players are playing in these two games. Not often that you get that much talent to watch at one time. I watched the Duke game on friday, and Jabari Parker was as advertized. 23 minutes, 22 points, on 8 of 10 shooting overall while going 3 for 3 from beyond the circle. he added 6 boards, 2 assists, and 1 blocked shot. His running mate, Hood had a very similar game. Either of them would automaticly be the best SF on our team if we had them, especially Parker. He's a terrific talent. So put that in your tank pipe and smoke it.

The problem with Parker is he's in that Carmelo zone where he's rather bulky for a three and not quite ideally sized to be a four. While I agree that he has phenomenal potential, those are the sorts of players who don't always pan out in the NBA (*cough* Michael Beasley *cough*). That said, if, come draft day, he is on the board and Wiggins and Randle are off the board, I certainly wouldn't throw a hissyfit if we drafted him.

Now to get back on the topic at hand, tanking as a concept is not a bad thing. Tanking repeatedly and failing to get anything out of it is a franchise killer.

 

[Cold]

Whoa...

Beasley and Parker play totally different games.

 

[Dime Dropper]

Parker is a far smarter player than Melo, and while I wouldn't be certain that he'll reach Melo's level, I wouldn't be surprised. And if he does, he'll easily be superior due to his all-round game and IQ. I struggle to find any holes in Parkers game. The one knock you might have on him is that he's not an elite athlete. That said, he's a good one, well above average for a guy his size. (Just random thoughts, not necessarily in response to you, Tetsujin)

 

[Tetsujin]

Whoa...

Beasley and Parker play totally different games.

I should have been more clear in my writing there. I wasn't comparing the two players but rather just the position struggles of those 6'8"- 6/'9" dudes. In terms of those players though, I'd rate Parker closer to a Carmelo than a Beasley (understatement of the year).

 

[Capt. Factorial]

The problem with Parker is he's in that Carmelo zone where he's rather bulky for a three and not quite ideally sized to be a four. While I agree that he has phenomenal potential, those are the sorts of players who don't always pan out in the NBA (*cough* Michael Beasley *cough*).

To be fair, doesn't this physical description also match LeBron? I haven't seen Parker play yet (obviously going to be rectifying that tonight), but if the talent and athleticism are there, he can star as a SF (ala LeBron/Carmelo) even if he's a little bulky for the position. I wouldn't worry too much about that - if his game is as advertised.

Bennett, I worried about, but that's because he didn't appear athletic enough nor to have the skill set to be a SF while at the same time not being big enough to be a PF.

 

[Dime Dropper]

I think Bennetts athleticism is fine in a general sense - he's actually a good athlete. Just too small for PF and lacking the skill-set/body-type for SF. He's too bulky to play SF full time. I wouldn't close the book on him yet, but he'll always be undersized and it was a bad idea taking him first.

 

[Mr. S£im Citrus]

Here is their list:

Lebron
Durant
Cp3
Harden
Westbrook
Curry
Dwight
Rose
Kyrie
Marc Gasol
Love
Parker
P George
Blake Griffin
Melo

I'll leave it to Bricklayer to articulate his explanation of why he thinks you're "wrong," as he sees fit, but just going Word Association-style with MOHO, with "Number One Option" being defined as the guy who should have the most touches and/or the most shots:

Yes
Probably
No
No
No
Hell no
No
No
No
Hell no
No
No
No
Hell no
No

And I shan't even dignify your inclusion of 16-20.

 

[randymoss1881]

Stop using espns player rating it sucks like everything else. Harden is #4 think about that.

Anyway after watching tonight I'm gonna dare anyone here to say grabbing parker/randle/wiggins (in that order) with DMC and mclemore doesn't make us contenders by the new arena.

 

[randymoss1881]

NBA is a talent league. Superstars win titles.

Kings need one. Cousins ain't it. His best role is a 2nd/3rd option all-star.

What in his 1st year as a #1 he is averaging 23-9.9-2 early on with no help. His per 36 last year was 20-11. If cousins can't be #1 who outside of bron, Kobe,wade,kd,rose, and westbrook can.

Dwight led his team to the finals a he's less talented offensively better D but I think if DMC can get to be an above average defender with 23-11 he's better

 

[VF21]

NBA is a talent league. Superstars win titles.

Kings need one. Cousins ain't it. His best role is a 2nd/3rd option all-star.

 

[bajaden]

Stop using espns player rating it sucks like everything else. Harden is #4 think about that.

Anyway after watching tonight I'm gonna dare anyone here to say grabbing parker/randle/wiggins (in that order) with DMC and mclemore doesn't make us contenders by the new arena.

We'd certainly be a playoff team. I think it takes a couple of years of playing together to actually contend for a championship. There are exceptions of course, but any of those three would certainly upgrade the team significantly. To be honest, they aren't the only three. They just happen to be at the top of the board. Right now, Cousins is the best player on the team. Its highly possible that any of Parker, Wiggins, or Randle, could be a better player than Cousins, and that's not a knock on Cuz.

I agree with Dimedropper that while Parker isn't a freak athlete, he's certainly a very good athlete, and might be the most skilled player in the entire draft with the BBIQ to go along with it. And I have seen him play.

 

[bajaden]

I think Bennetts athleticism is fine in a general sense - he's actually a good athlete. Just too small for PF and lacking the skill-set/body-type for SF. He's too bulky to play SF full time. I wouldn't close the book on him yet, but he'll always be undersized and it was a bad idea taking him first.

You totally nailed it with Bennett. Lack of SF skills is his problem. Right now he's horribly out of shape. When in shape, he's a pretty good athlete, and a good outside shooter as well.

 

[randymoss1881]

We'd certainly be a playoff team. I think it takes a couple of years of playing together to actually contend for a championship. There are exceptions of course, but any of those three would certainly upgrade the team significantly. To be honest, they aren't the only three. They just happen to be at the top of the board. Right now, Cousins is the best player on the team. Its highly possible that any of Parker, Wiggins, or Randle, could be a better player than Cousins, and that's not a knock on Cuz.

I agree with Dimedropper that while Parker isn't a freak athlete, he's certainly a very good athlete, and might be the most skilled player in the entire draft with the BBIQ to go along with it. And I have seen him play.

I agree on parker he will be better than wiggins he has to much skill his athleticism is on par with Melos so he has plenty.

Keep an eye on james young on Kentucky 6'7(6"11 wingspan) plays SF a lights out shooter

 

[Tetsujin]

I agree on parker he will be better than wiggins he has to much skill his athleticism is on par with Melos so he has plenty.

Keep an eye on james young on Kentucky 6'7(6"11 wingspan) plays SF a lights out shooter

Believe me when I say Baja already has his eyes on these guys. I trust his college player analysis more than a lot of published scouts

 

[Glenn]

Believe me when I say Baja already has his eyes on these guys. I trust his college player analysis more than MOST of published scouts

Slight correction.

 

[Cold]

LOL man.... i love the homerism. Cousins' efficiency does not warrant first option touches. He has improved this season, but I want to see it done for 82 games before I declare him "probably" on Durant's level offensively.

Man..... one thing to be biased. We all are when talking about our favorite teams and players but... come on.

I mean... his FG is 45% and his TS% is a WHOPPING 50.3%. VERY POOR for a star, let alone a star center.

He has a ton of promise, but I don't even think he's a star yet. Stop it.

 

[VF21]

Any suggestions on what I should do with this thread?

It is now forever off-topic as far as the OP is concerned. It is another ongoing discussion of potential draft picks, which some find interesting, but may not find since its title indicates it's about tanking...

 

[VF21]

LOL man.... i love the homerism. Cousins' efficiency does not warrant first option touches. He has improved this season, but I want to see it done for 82 games before I declare him "probably" on Durant's level offensively.

Man..... one thing to be biased. We are all when talking about our favorite teams and players but... come on.

If you don't agree, fine. Face the fact, however, that you are NOT going to convince a bunch of rabid Kings fans.

 

[Cold]

If you don't agree, fine. Face the fact, however, that you are NOT going to convince a bunch of rabid Kings fans.

I'm pretty sure I'm not the only person on this board who is not quite convinced about Cousins. I've seen others. I'm jut a bit more vocal and more blunt. The statistics support my view, VF21.

 

[VF21]

I'm pretty sure I'm not the only person on this board who is not quite convinced about Cousins. I've seen others. I'm jut a bit more vocal and more blunt. The statistics support my view, VF21.

There's more to life and basketball than statistics. You're certainly entitled to your opinion but is it really necessary to resort to accusations of "homerism" and admonitions to "stop it"?

Whatever...

 

[Glenn]

It's really a prospects subject but you can't separate prospects from the idea of tanking or just plain losing. I am definitely more interested in the prospects because of our level of suckatude no matter how you define what we are doing. It's not tanking unless you buy my conspiracy theory that the team didn't resign Reke because they thought it would move them up higher in the draft and get us a star next to Cuz and Ben. Lot's of assumptions about the draft and Ben's improvement going on there, I realize.

Anyway, that's why you get paid the big bucks.

 

[Glenn]

I'm pretty sure I'm not the only person on this board who is not quite convinced about Cousins. I've seen others. I'm jut a bit more vocal and more blunt. The statistics support my view, VF21.

Are you not convinced he is a #1 option? Whether he is #1 or #2 or #3 doesn't concern me as he is a beast.

I am convinced he is a stud but wouldn't mind if there was a great iso player to be #1. Too much is being asked of him in that they want him to be #1, to be the defensive anchor, and hustle. he can't do it all and I'd like to see him focus a little more on rebounding as I think that part of his game is suffering. As it is, he is all we have unless you want to factor in IT off the bench.

 

[VF21]

Glenn - You're right. I guess I'll just leave it and not worry about it. Which is incredibly difficult for a Libra.

 

[Cold]

Statistics can be used to support any point of view, but how do you argue 45% FG and 50% TS? Those are extremely poor efficiency for a big man. Heck, that TS is very poor for a star guard.

Everyone in ESPN's "bogus" top 20, heck make it 25 or 30, has a significantly higher True Shooting % than Cousins. Yet everyone single of them minus Lebron is not worthy of having more touches than Cousins.

Mind boggling.

 

[Dime Dropper]

His efficiency has been poor for a guy of his size and talent, but is better this season (hopefully he can keep it up), and personally I don't agree with all of Slims choices. But he clearly has the talent to be a legit number 1 option if he continues to improve, I don't really see how that's in doubt, but maybe you just don't watch that many Kings games.

 

[Cold]

Again, Cousin's claim to fame is his offense. But you simply cannot be considered a star big man when your TS% is 50.3 and you can't defend like Ben Wallace.

Like I said, he has tremendous potential, but he hasn't done a lick to warrant any talk of first option. Hell he hasn't done a lick to warrant 2nd option on an elite team.

Cousins need to have a full season of acceptable TS% before he deserves any kind of star talk.

 

[Cold]

Dime Stopper, I never denied his talent. I always felt like he will improve becuz he has tools. But the hype is ahead of the production at this point. I mean someone here thinks Durant is "probably" on same level as Cousins offensive, and nobody else outside of Lebron is worthy of more touches than Cousins. That's absurd lol.

 

[Glenn]

Again, Cousin's claim to fame is his offense. But you simply cannot be considered a star big man when your TS% is 50.3 and you can't defend like Ben Wallace.

Like I said, he has tremendous potential, but he hasn't done a lick to warrant any talk of first option. Hell he hasn't done a lick to warrant 2nd option on an elite team.

Cousins need to have a full season of acceptable TS% before he deserves any kind of star talk.

I don't agree at all.

 

[Bricklayer]

Here is their list:

Lebron Yes
Durant Yes
Cp3 No, that's a pure PG. Traditional PG/C alliance.
Harden Not if you want to win anything.
Westbrook *see note below
Curry *see note below
Dwight Absolutely not.
Rose *see note below
Kyrie *see note below
Marc Gasol Come on.
Love I'll take arguments on this one, although a 3pt shooting PF is an odd thing to try to build around.
Parker No, 2nd tier player. What is Parker without Duncan on a championship scale?
P George Not if last year's 18ppg guy. If he stays this 25ppg guy this year though maybe yes.
Blake Griffin ? having a bounceback year, but talk about guys who need to be somebody's #2. Not a hitch it up and throw the ball to #32 sort of guy
Melo hmm, you probably have to go with Melo just for longtime prolificness, but the Knicks are showing about how far he can take you

16-20:
Duncan not anymore
Aldridge at least in the same weight class, but no, jumpshooter
Wade probably not anymore. still a great #2
Hortford no, jumpshooter, and not in the same class
Deron see CP3, but may be done anyway


*note below: the score high scoring score first PGs...you can argue for Westbrook, or Curry, or old Rose (the new guy is looking a shell at the moment). But its yet to be proven you can win it all with those guys as your main man. I don't think its ever been done in history actually. And I don't think that's random or coincidence. In a lot of ways, as IT shows nightly, the easiest thing in the world is to be a high scoring PG. You have the ball from the beginning of each play. You can find your own offense at any time. But since you have the ball from the beginning of each play, if you run around finding your own offense too much, then the other 4 guys are frozen out and never get to play. On top of that you are the smallest guy on the floor. Westbrook is his own team's #2. Rose I think took his team as far as one of those ever has since Iverson's day, and it was one trip to the Conference Finals at which point a larger star pinched him off. Kyrie has yet to win, or pass. And its not pandering to say that Curry may have the most interesting case. And its hardly because I am a huge Curry fan. In general my philosophy is show me a weenie long ball chucker and I'll show you a loser splatted on the ground by the real players when it matters. But Curry's quick shots from distance would be an obvious perfect counter to Cousins' inside game. I still go inside first and back to Curry on the kick once the double comes though.

 

[Cold]

Lebron Yes
Durant Yes
Cp3 No, that's a pure PG. Traditional PG/C alliance.
Harden Not if you want to win anything.
Westbrook *see note below
Curry *see note below
Dwight Absolutely not.
Rose *see note below
Kyrie *see note below
Marc Gasol Come on.
Love I'll take arguments on this one, although a 3pt shooting PF is an odd thing to try to build around.
Parker No, 2nd tier player. What is Parker without Duncan on a championship scale?
P George Not if last year's 18ppg guy. If he stays this 25ppg guy this year though maybe yes.
Blake Griffin ? having a bounceback year, but talk about guys who need to be somebody's #2. Not a hitch it up and throw the ball to #32 sort of guy
Melo hmm, you probably have to go with Melo just for longtime prolificness, but the Knicks are showing about how far he can take you

16-20:
Duncan not anymore
Aldridge at least in the same weight class, but no, jumpshooter
Wade probably not anymore. still a great #2
Hortford no, jumpshooter, and not in the same class
Deron see CP3, but may be done anyway


*note below: the score high scoring score first PGs...you can argue for Westbrook, or Curry, or old Rose (the new guy is looking a shell at the moment). But its yet to be proven you can win it all with those guys as your main man. I don't think its ever been done in history actually. And I don't think that's random or coincidence. In a lot of ways, as IT shows nightly, the easiest thing in the world is to be a high scoring PG. You have the ball from the beginning of each play. You can find your own offense at any time. But since you have the ball from the beginning of each play, if you run around finding your own offense too much, then the other 4 guys are frozen out and never get to play. On top of that you are the smallest guy on the floor. Westbrook is his own team's #2. Rose I think took his team as far as one of those ever has since Iverson's day, and it was one trip to the Conference Finals at which point a larger star pinched him off. Kyrie has yet to win, or pass. And its not pandering to say that Curry may have the most interesting case. And its hardly because I am a huge Curry fan. In general my philosophy is show me a weenie long ball chucker and I'll show you a loser splatted on the ground by the real players when it matters. But Curry's quick shots from distance would be an obvious perfect counter to Cousins' inside game. I still go inside first and back to Curry on the kick once the double comes though.

I'm not gonna argue your last paragraph. Ur right. I too would prefer an inside out game. But I keep having to resort back to these: 45%FG and 50% TS. An inside first option commanding touches putting up that kind of efficiency won't win jack in this league. We need to see that TS% raised significantly and over a full season before we can make claim that Cousins is the type of dominant inside force we can build around. As of right now, there's nothing that supports that claim. I'm sorry. I hope I'm wrong by the end of the season. So we'll see.

There have been many dominant centers that won titles as the 1st or 2nd option, but their efficiency trumped Cousins. The gap is sizable. And virtually all those guys were better defensively.