Why tanking does not work - article

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Capt. with all due respect you really need to Factor in RESIGNING FA's Yes landing a top talent is often easiest through the draft but getting that second contract is vital. But what the numbers bear out is success breeds success, failure tends to bring more of the same in the long run.

I'm not sure what resigning free agents has to do with anything. Obviously the Cavaliers were unable to keep LeBron around, and he went on to win (at least) two championships in Miami. But if you read through the entire post you'll see that I went through the five (yes, only five) players in the last 30 years to be top-three players on their championship teams acquired through free agency.

It is important to note that the question I was addressing is not "Do teams that pick in the top five win championships?" Naturally there are five of these every year and only one champion. Not all teams picking in the top five will go on to win it all - and I don't think anybody ever claimed that. Rather the question was "Did teams that win championships build via top five picks?" Overwhelmingly the answer is yes. The Lakers are the only championship team in the last 30 years that did not build that team using at least one top-five pick. With a record like that, it looks untenable to argue against the importance of top-5 picks.
 
I was pretty disappointed in this article - I expect more from the Freakonomics guys. In fact, it inspired me to do a little research on my own.

I decided to go back 30 years and tally up the top 3 players on each championship team - 90 players overall. (In a few cases I had to make some arbitrary decisions on who was the #3 guy on the team but it actually didn't make any difference for the most important numbers I present here.) How were these top three pieces of championship teams (T3PCT) acquired? The breakdown is perhaps a bit surprising:

Free Agency: 9 (10%)
Trade: 27 (30%)
Draft: 54 (60%)

Note that the list of draftees does include 5 championships for Kobe, who was technically a draft day trade. Even without Kobe, 54% of all T3PCTs were acquired in the draft.

But that might include a large number of players like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, who were late draft picks made by already-successful teams, so why not look at the importance of top-5 draft picks?

T3PCT drafted #1-#5: 54 (60%)
T3PCT drafted #-1-#5 by the team they won a championship for: 33 (37%)

These are impressive numbers. Almost two-thirds of T3PCTs are top-5 picks, and more than one-third were picked by the team that won. Looked at another way, over the last 30 years, the average championship team has had 1.1 players that it drafted top-5. In fact, in the last 30 years, only 8 teams have won a championship without having their own top-5 draft pick as one of their top three players, and 5 of those 8 were led by Kobe, who was drafted anomalously low because he refused to sign in a small market. That leaves three non-caveat teams that have managed to assemble a championship roster without using their own top-five pick. Those teams are:

Nowitzki-Kidd-Chandler Mavs (Kidd acquired for Mavs recent #5 Harris)
Garnett-Pierce-Allen Celtics (Allen acquired for Celtics #5 in draft)
Billups-Big Ben-Hamilton Pistons (Wallace acquired for 6-year vet and Pistons #3 overall Grant Hill)

So each of those three teams had a top-five pick that directly turned into one of their T3PCTs. Let's recap. Of the last 30 championship teams:
22 have drafted at least one of their T3PCTs with their own top-5 pick
3 have acquired at least one of their T3PCTs by trading the fruits of their own top-5 pick
5 lucked into Kobe Bryant, who is a bit of an anomalous situation

The draft appears to be really incredibly important. Free agency, on the other hand, would appear to be a very unlikely place to acquire T3PCTs. There have been nine of these, but only 5 total players, and three teams:
Shaq on the Lakers (3)
LeBron (2)
Bosh (2)
Mourning (1)
Billups (1)

Wow. Over the last 30 years only seven championship teams have featured as many as ONE player acquired in free agency: Three Lakers teams, three Heat teams, and one Pistons team. Interestingly, all of the players in question were drafted in the top 4.

Other things to consider include the fact that only 8 teams have won a championship at all over the last 30 years (Bulls, Lakers, Heat, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Mavericks, Spurs). Of those, only one - the Spurs - really meets the criteria of a small-market team and they only got to the level of being a championship team by having two #1 overall picks on their roster to start. So there's a large-market bias that can't completely be attributed to free agency.

In the end, the general rule is that to win a championship in the NBA you need to
1) Have a top-five pick,
or
2) Be a large market,
or
3) Preferably both.

High draft picks matter A LOT. It's nearly impossible to win without them.


Nice work.
I've always been a believer that you need multiple top-5 talent to have a shot at the title. 2 is the bare minimum and not ideal.
I once read an in-depth study that charted success (titles, all nba, all-star, all-defense, etc.) of all draft picks of all time. Pretty sizable dropoff in team success between top-4 picks VS 5th or later picks. The number 1 overall picks also had a massive edge in both team and personal accolades. Massive.

Prior to the draft, it was widely known that Kobe his management and shoe company contacted a dozen NBA teams and warned them that if they took him he'd go play in Italy. He was supposed to go top 5. Remember Kobe appeared on the cover of SI (or was it another well known mag? shrugs i cant remember) dubbed the next superstar. His talent was undeniable.
 
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Capt. You are not wrong, but your a bit incomplete. From raw numbers perspective. Each season there are 5 to 5 picks and to be honest if 2 of them turn out to a top 3 player on a contending team in their first 3 years that's pretty good. So 1 or 2 tams score and 3 or 4 stay lotto (think 20 years of Cliperisim) Each season there is at least 1-3 top FA's that EVERYONE KNOWS will be a top 3 guy on almost any team that picks them up. More often than not these guys resign with their existing team but that is irrelevant to this discussion. (but it does mean these guys get moved a lot less than draftees get picked)Each of the teams that sign (or trade for a top 3 player) GET a top 3 player. The analogy would be selling gold bars and bags of "pay dirt"

Lets say I own a Gold Shop. I sell bars of gold worth $2,000 and I also sell bags of dirt from my claim, one or two of which I seed with $1,000 to $2,000 worth of gold. I sell 5 bags of gold each day at $1,000, and 1 or 2 bars of gold at $2,000. By your line of analysis the best way to get rich is to keep buying pay dirt. But after 5 trips to my store you at best have $4,000 worth of gold you paid $5,000 for mean while if you bought gold bars you would have $10,000 in gold. The numbes get you faster than the odds. By comparing a group of 5 to a smaller group of 2 or 3 you are more likely to get larger numbers in return but you ignore the larger number of busts. By neglecting resigning you further minimize the impact of proven vets while exagerating the impact of draftees (who you need to stop counting as draft picks AFTER they resign with their team and START counting as FA's)
 
I don't care what the numbers say. Tanking is a joke. The NBA should be embarrassed and ashamed. I know of no other sport* where such BS is encouraged.

Play with some pride. Manage your team with some pride. If you can't get the talent then learn to punch above your weight. That is the point. Andrew Wiggins (whoever he is) is not going to come along and part the Red Sea.

*i don't follow all sports.
 
I don't care what the numbers say. Tanking is a joke. The NBA should be embarrassed and ashamed. I know of no other sport* where such BS is encouraged.

Play with some pride. Manage your team with some pride. If you can't get the talent then learn to punch above your weight. That is the point. Andrew Wiggins (whoever he is) is not going to come along and part the Red Sea.

*i don't follow all sports.


NBA is the only association (of those with the draft system) that actually discourages tanking (the lottery) so I don't know what you're talking about. You can't learn to punch above your weight, that's contradictory in itself, and kind of naive.

If you suck, you suck.
 
NBA is the only association (of those with the draft system) that actually discourages tanking (the lottery) so I don't know what you're talking about. You can't learn to punch above your weight, that's contradictory in itself, and kind of naive.

If you suck, you suck.

I don't follow other American based sports. We have a draft system in the australian football league (afl) but I don't know of any team that is trying to lose just to get some flash kid. Taking the AFL as an example, a lot of money and scientific resources are invested into gaining a competitive advantage. Teams and players do what they can to gain a competitive advantage. For the purpose of winning.

If you look at the NZ rugby programme or the NZ rowing programme you see a country of 4 million that develops the best in the world. They maximise their potential, and are hence able to 'punch above their weight' in global competition.

Again on tanking- the flood of media that supports the 'logic of losing' is a sickness. It is pathetic and would not be acceptable where I am from.
 
i'm still amazed there are nba fans out there who assume that "tanking" refers to the willful act of losing, as in a prize fighter throwing a match for the benefit of the gambling set. but it doesn't work that way in basketball. "tanking" refers to the strategic implementation of rotational tweaks that don't necessarily equate to wins. for example, a team can favor the development of its youth over playing its more seasoned veterans. such an act often results in additional games lost at no expense of pride...

a team can start a lineup that, while competitive, is at a lack for certain qualities found in winning teams, like, say, a small ball lineup that is unable to secure key rebounds at the end of a game. did those players willfully lose that game? absolutely not. does their pride remain intact? well, let's just say that their pride is no more damaged than that of those kings who have performed so poorly through the early part of this season, "tank" or no tank...

the point is, nobody is asking these kings to throw games. they're bad enough already, but go ahead and start mclemore. give mccallum some minutes off the bench. throw jimmer out there, for better or worse. young, inexperienced players often make the kinds of mistakes that cost a team wins. so, in the spirit of "tanking," feel free to demand maximum effort from that team because, after all, maximum effort is not necessarily enough to win basketball games. talent is paramount in the contemporary nba. and "tanking" can help a franchise acquire top tier talent...
 


Haha at the methodology. Good lord.
P.S. Celtics never tanked? hahahaha. The Celtics won their lone title in the last 25 years PRECISEELY by tanking. They tanked hard to get Oden. Came up short. Parlayed the high pick into Ray Allen, which then allowed them to convince Kevin Garnett to come. Voila! Title. We ourselves tanked btw. Yes we did. We tanked so badly Mitch Richmond quit on us. We cleared out our salaries, and intentionally let the team get as bad as it needed to get so it could get good. End result of our tank? Trade disgruntled Mitch for Webber. Get JWill in the lottery. Have free agent money to sign Vlade Divac. Not bad really.
 
By neglecting resigning you further minimize the impact of proven vets while exagerating the impact of draftees (who you need to stop counting as draft picks AFTER they resign with their team and START counting as FA's)

I disagree. I think for the most part you are making up a problem that doesn't exist. Players of this caliber tend to stick with the team that drafted them when they have the chance. There is a certain loyalty there that the numbers will bear out.

I mentioned that 54 of the last 90 top-three players were still with their drafting team. That turns out to be a total of 19 different players. Eight of those players finished their career with the team that drafted them, and six of those players are still playing but have yet to leave their original team, and I would argue that none of them are terribly likely to do so (Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Nowitzki, Kobe, Wade). That leaves only 5 of 19 that ever left their original team. Four of those five were traded. And the one - the only one - who left his original team in "free agency" technically retired and then tried an ill-advised comeback several years later (Jordan).

Mercenary free agents are not a major force as top-three player on championship teams - only 5 players (nine seasons, 10%) who changed teams in free agency went on to win a championship with the team they signed with.

At the same time, teams that win championships behind players that they drafted don't lose them as free agents. Basically no player who has won a championship with his drafting team has subsequently left that team in free agency in the last 30 years, and if it weren't for the anomalous Jordan comeback I wouldn't have to use the word "basically".

The bottom line is that while having a top-five pick doesn't mean you're going to win a championship, NOT having had a top-five pick recently pretty much guarantees you won't (again, with the ONLY exception being Kobe, who held the draft at ransom).
 
I don't follow other American based sports. We have a draft system in the australian football league (afl) but I don't know of any team that is trying to lose just to get some flash kid. Taking the AFL as an example, a lot of money and scientific resources are invested into gaining a competitive advantage. Teams and players do what they can to gain a competitive advantage. For the purpose of winning.

If you look at the NZ rugby programme or the NZ rowing programme you see a country of 4 million that develops the best in the world. They maximise their potential, and are hence able to 'punch above their weight' in global competition.

Again on tanking- the flood of media that supports the 'logic of losing' is a sickness. It is pathetic and would not be acceptable where I am from.

Yes it really would if that was the route to winning, which it really can be.

I am more amused to the panicked visceral moral repulsion people have with tanking. But then again that is me. I win a lot. And not always by being brilliant. Just by analyzing systems, spotting the holes in them, and exploiting them ruthlessly. This is no different. Take a moral stance about what is in the end a completely practical decision, and be prepared to look up at those more ruthless in the standings.

I wonder if people who lose their head about tanking would freak out as badly watching a chess grandmaster sacrifice his rook. Its the same concept. Its tactics. Its smart.
 
Capt. You miss the point that once a draft pick signs their SECOND contract they are no longer a draft pick, they are a Free Agent REGARDLESS of who signs them. The drafting team only KEEPS them by entering into the FA market for talent. The fact that they choose to sign a guy they had last season gives the draft no merit. If a player rocks in their rookie season you credit the draft. If they get you a championship on their second contract you have to credit free agency. To do otherwise grossly skews your analysis to favor the draft and over look the importance of Free Agency and the reality that most top FA's sign with the team that drafted them.

In one sentence after the original contract you no longer have the player due to the draft, you have him due to free agency.
 
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Yes it really would if that was the route to winning, which it really can be.

I am more amused to the panicked visceral moral repulsion people have with tanking. But then again that is me. I win a lot. And not always by being brilliant. Just by analyzing systems, spotting the holes in them, and exploiting them ruthlessly. This is no different. Take a moral stance about what is in the end a completely practical decision, and be prepared to look up at those more ruthless in the standings.

I wonder if people who lose their head about tanking would freak out as badly watching a chess grandmaster sacrifice his rook. Its the same concept. Its tactics. Its smart.

Sports are often a vehicle for morality and I am fairly certain such behaviour is not unique to me. To be amused by such phenomena may be a bit of an indulgence?

I stand beside my strong dislike of tanking. I am not convinced by whatever evidence exists and believe it is a stretch to compare tanking to brilliance in chess.

I will concede a disadvantage in that an American sports season is structured much differently to an Australian one, as is the means by which one acquires and retains players. None the less, I have little have little interest in sacrificing years of performance for a shot at the lottery.
 
Capt. You miss the point that once a draft pick signs their SECOND contract they are no longer a draft pick, they are a Free Agent REGARDLESS of who signs them.

I'm really not missing that point. I did see the point, and I did address it.

To do otherwise grossly skews your analysis to favor the draft and over look the importance of Free Agency and the reality that most top FA's sign with the team that drafted them.

Yes. Exactly what I said. You are agreeing with my point even as you argue against it.

Given that most top FA's sign with the team that drafted them, it is the possession of the top-five draft pick, and not free agency (which does not spread the wealth nearly as much as one might expect), which is the more important contributor to championship success.
 
I don't follow other American based sports. We have a draft system in the australian football league (afl) but I don't know of any team that is trying to lose just to get some flash kid. Taking the AFL as an example, a lot of money and scientific resources are invested into gaining a competitive advantage. Teams and players do what they can to gain a competitive advantage. For the purpose of winning.

If you look at the NZ rugby programme or the NZ rowing programme you see a country of 4 million that develops the best in the world. They maximise their potential, and are hence able to 'punch above their weight' in global competition.

Again on tanking- the flood of media that supports the 'logic of losing' is a sickness. It is pathetic and would not be acceptable where I am from.
UMM did you miss what has happend to the Melbounre Demons they purposly tanked like 5 straight years and all there good players wanted to leave and they got blown out by 100 points on numerous occasions and there players quit faster than Marcus Thornton. Tanking has been a huge issue there main player who was going to be captain left cause they were tanking. On top of that there high draft picks have amounted to zero this is a perfect example why tanking is horrible it kills moral you gvies people a lossing mentality which is not easy to get over.

The Demons situation makes me feel good about where the Kings are at.....
 
Sports are often a vehicle for morality and I am fairly certain such behaviour is not unique to me. To be amused by such phenomena may be a bit of an indulgence?

I stand beside my strong dislike of tanking. I am not convinced by whatever evidence exists and believe it is a stretch to compare tanking to brilliance in chess.

I will concede a disadvantage in that an American sports season is structured much differently to an Australian one, as is the means by which one acquires and retains players. None the less, I have little have little interest in sacrificing years of performance for a shot at the lottery.

You're not alone. But this is an argument that most likely will never be resolved one way or the other. My belief is that you should do everything you can to win every game and let the chips fall where they may. Losing to win just isn't a concept I embrace. It just seems unfair to the fans who have paid good money to see their team compete. I also don't like the idea of losing towards the end of the season to get an easier opponent in the early rounds of the playoffs...but maybe that's just me.
 
If anyone wants to read up on the Australian Football version of Sacramento (the similarites are unreal literally everything was the same) and how they went about it by tanking and how badly it went for them here's a link
http://the-flack.com/2012/10/melbourne-tanked-in-09-what-about-10-11-and-12/

Why the situations are so similar

Both were good in the late 90's and early 2000's (Melbourne made the grand final/playoffs regularly)
Both have struggled brutally for the last 7-8 years (in particular the last 4)
Both have had financial trouble and threats of the clubs closing down /moving away to another place
Awful GM/coaching and draft selections (there #1 pick has been a utter scrub and none of there high selections are what you would call all star level players and a lot have left).
Both trade away solid veteran players for peanuts
Literally the only difference between the two is we have some hope in DMC they don't even have that

My favourite quote
The real people being punished will be the fans who have already put up with enough. Those running the club deserve everything they get but sanctions that will cripple this club on the field (if that is possible) just punishes the fans who have put up with more than enough for a very long time.

We need to do the opposite of everything we have instinctively done. It’s the only way because Demon fans have had enough of this.

I have never in my life watched a group of players so uninspired in my life that didn't have any pride in there perfromances, tanking has crippled/hurt this club both on and off the field beyond belief.
 
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I purposefully do not read comment sections. (Learned that from SacBee). Personally, I have more respect for and would much rather read comments here from fans of the game whose opinions I know aren't just random idiots spouting blatherskite (my word for the day ;)).


Setting the idea of tanking aside, lets look at where all players, and I mean every player in the NBA, Stars, and wanabe stars come from. They all come from the draft. You name them! Duncan, Jordan, Bird, West, Magic, etc, etc. I could go on endlessly. So to say, having the first pick in the draft doesn't help, is pure ignorance, regardless of how you acquired that pick. Now if you tank, as they call it, and you don't end up with a player similar to those I suggested, then that's on you. If I send you into a library first, before anyone else, and you can't come out with a great, or a good book, that has nothing to do with how you were able to go first, but has everything to do with you lack of ability to make an intelligent choice.

For that reason, the article is ridiculous. Whether you condone tanking or not, that's a separate issue from whatever the success rate is, from having the first, or a top three pick in the draft. People make bad choices! Cleveland was mentioned as an example. Well in my opinion, Cleveland has made just one good choice, and that was Irving. The rest of their choices were suspect for where they were picking. Our own track record of late hasn't been the best either. And why? The human element comes into play. GM's do things for different reasons. If I send you into an German deli, and your looking for Irish food, your probably going to make a bad choice. Translation: If your a team with the first pick, and you desparately need a center in a draft loaded at the top with great SF prospects, you might make a bad choice. That choice has nothing to do with how you got that choice.

One is a moral issue, and the other is an intelligence issue. To mix the two together is illogical.
 
Capt. You are not wrong, but your a bit incomplete. From raw numbers perspective. Each season there are 5 to 5 picks and to be honest if 2 of them turn out to a top 3 player on a contending team in their first 3 years that's pretty good. So 1 or 2 tams score and 3 or 4 stay lotto (think 20 years of Cliperisim) Each season there is at least 1-3 top FA's that EVERYONE KNOWS will be a top 3 guy on almost any team that picks them up. More often than not these guys resign with their existing team but that is irrelevant to this discussion. (but it does mean these guys get moved a lot less than draftees get picked)Each of the teams that sign (or trade for a top 3 player) GET a top 3 player. The analogy would be selling gold bars and bags of "pay dirt"

Lets say I own a Gold Shop. I sell bars of gold worth $2,000 and I also sell bags of dirt from my claim, one or two of which I seed with $1,000 to $2,000 worth of gold. I sell 5 bags of gold each day at $1,000, and 1 or 2 bars of gold at $2,000. By your line of analysis the best way to get rich is to keep buying pay dirt. But after 5 trips to my store you at best have $4,000 worth of gold you paid $5,000 for mean while if you bought gold bars you would have $10,000 in gold. The numbes get you faster than the odds. By comparing a group of 5 to a smaller group of 2 or 3 you are more likely to get larger numbers in return but you ignore the larger number of busts. By neglecting resigning you further minimize the impact of proven vets while exagerating the impact of draftees (who you need to stop counting as draft picks AFTER they resign with their team and START counting as FA's)

I thought the discussion was about tanking and results, not whether signing a veteran freeagent was better than having the first pick in the draft. Apples and oranges I believe. Both the draft and intelligent signings are the way to build a competitive team. But having a top three pick certainly helps, or should help. Look at the Thunder. Every core player on that team was drafted. Look at the Spurs, the same thing. You have your exceptions, like the Heat, and for a while, the Celtics. But you have as many failures in the, lets get way under the cap, and then sign other teams best players. How are the Knick's doing right now. And whats the common denominator in failure on either side? I'll be kind, and say poor judgement.

If percentages say that having the first pick in the draft, or that signing a big name player through freeagency have a low percentage of success, then that has more to do with making an intelligent choice, than the process. To blame the process is like putting a bad driver in a great racing car, and blaming the car when he doesn't win. By the way, your gold shop wouldn't be in business very long, and you would end up in jail.
 
I don't follow other American based sports. We have a draft system in the australian football league (afl) but I don't know of any team that is trying to lose just to get some flash kid. Taking the AFL as an example, a lot of money and scientific resources are invested into gaining a competitive advantage. Teams and players do what they can to gain a competitive advantage. For the purpose of winning.

If you look at the NZ rugby programme or the NZ rowing programme you see a country of 4 million that develops the best in the world. They maximise their potential, and are hence able to 'punch above their weight' in global competition.

Again on tanking- the flood of media that supports the 'logic of losing' is a sickness. It is pathetic and would not be acceptable where I am from.

the problem with comparing basketball with other sports, where tactical schemes, coaching, etc. can make less talented players approximate the production of their superior counterparts is that it doesn't translate. in basketball, you get five players on the court at the same time, that's it. it's less than any other team sport I can think of and if you don't have several "star" type players, you will never beat an opposing team that does. all those advanced stats, "finding gold where others don't see it" types only acquire these kinds of players as assets to ultimately parley into a star player. and you are pretty much only getting star players through the draft, if you aren't LA, CHI, or NY. it comes with the sport and there really is very little that can be done about it.
 
Capt. You miss the point that once a draft pick signs their SECOND contract they are no longer a draft pick, they are a Free Agent REGARDLESS of who signs them. The drafting team only KEEPS them by entering into the FA market for talent. The fact that they choose to sign a guy they had last season gives the draft no merit. If a player rocks in their rookie season you credit the draft. If they get you a championship on their second contract you have to credit free agency. To do otherwise grossly skews your analysis to favor the draft and over look the importance of Free Agency and the reality that most top FA's sign with the team that drafted them.

In one sentence after the original contract you no longer have the player due to the draft, you have him due to free agency.

while technically/semantically correct, this doesn't really reflect the reality. if you are a team and the guy you draft is good enough for you to want to keep him, you get to, period. it basically was so before the new cba, but now there's pretty much no wriggle room any more. after playing out his first contract, players now become restricted free agents, unless their team doesn't want them to. so in a sense, you draft your guy for two contracts, one of which pretty much guarantees that they'll be underpaid, thanks to the rookie scale. another reason, btw, why draft picks are more valuable than ever.
 
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Setting the idea of tanking aside, lets look at where all players, and I mean every player in the NBA, Stars, and wanabe stars come from. They all come from the draft. You name them! Duncan, Jordan, Bird, West, Magic, etc, etc. I could go on endlessly...

[Jackass Nitpick Mode]

Ben Wallace and Brad Miller weren't drafted.

[/Jackass Nitpick Mode]
 
That's a pretty poor article, top to bottom. Doesn't give enough evidence. Bad teams have bad front offices that in turn make bad picks, make bad signings, etc., no matter where they draft. Jimmer and Trob are two examples of franchise stunting picks. Signing Landry is a good example. Losing tyreke for a flier on a flat footed no defense pg, another example.

Contrast that with the spurs, who seem to find gems in the draft no matter where they draft. But it took a tank, which may have been their only choice due to what turned out to be, in the long run, lucky injuries to Robinson and Elliot, to get the foundation of Tim Duncan to build around.

Until we get a decent FO that looks like it has any idea what it's doing (and actually backs up talk of a strong defensive team by getting strong defensive players), I'm not sure it matters where we draft. The sins of the last regime are well documented. Fact is, we haven't, and granted, in a very short time frame, moved forward in any significant way with the new FO. Petrie could have and would have drafted mclemore. That's the only smart thing they've done anyone on here can legitimately get excited about as yet. And that was dumb luck. Which you also need to succeed btw.

Will they make smart moves going forward? We sure are hoping, but I've seen little tangible results to think we have turned a corner in that regard. Again, enormously short time frame, so I'm being unfair. But that's what fans do.

I think this is largely a debate about semantics. Personally, I root for wins. But I also root for player development. I think that's the FO plan for this season. Starting tomorrow, hopefully the nonsense of starting MT and salmons is done, and we can actually play the players that still can develop, and heck, that includes jimmer. In theory, or at least my theory going into the season, was that we'd win more games with the vets starting. Too many to get a decent pick. The vets played themselves out of the lineup, which is a good thing for both now and the future.
 
while technically/semantically correct, this doesn't really reflect the reality. if you are a team and the guy you draft is good enough for you to want to keep him, you get to, period. it basically was so before the new cba, but now there's pretty much no wriggle room any more. after playing out his first contract, players now become restricted free agents, unless their team doesn't want them to. so in a sense, you draft your guy for two contracts, one of which pretty much guarantees that they'll be underpaid, thanks to the rookie scale. another reason, btw, why draft picks are more valuable than ever.

indeed. the initial purpose of the lottery was to discourage willful losses by teams attempting to win the first pick in the draft. however, provisions in more recent CBA's, particularly those in the current CBA, are making draft picks increasingly valuable. a high draft pick doesn't just signify the opportunity to draft a potential impact player anymore. now a high draft pick signifies the opportunity to draft a potential impact player and retain that impact player for the long haul, regardless of market size, franchise management, or eventual win/loss record...

the cleveland cavaliers are a perfect example. they drafted lebron james and, because of restrictions/incentives, they were able to retain his services for seven years despite absolute ineptitude in their front office. they were a bad team that contended for titles because of a single player. they didn't win it all, but, for seven years, a poorly-managed small market franchise was the talk of the league. they sold out games. they made the playoffs. any small market franchise with a losing culture would kill for the same...

and here's the rub: the new CBA is even more restrictive than when lebron james was drafted. it offers more incentive for a draftee to sign his second contract with the team that drafted him. so, "why tank?" well, because it puts a bad team in the best possible position to draft the kind of player that can single-handedly change a franchise's immediate fortunes. it's not about whether or not bad teams manage to win a championship after acquiring such a player, it's simply about a team putting itself in the best possible position to win in the near future. the importance of restricted free agency and scaled contracts for young players cannot be overstated, given the de facto "hardening" of the salary cap over the years. a small market franchise like sacramento can actually build a winner very quickly if the team is managed well...

look at it this way, with CBA considerations in mind: demarcus cousins, a tremendous talent with obvious superstar potential, was just signed to a maximum contract extension, but, given that he has 6 or fewer years of experience, that max extension is only worth 25% of the total salary cap, as opposed to the 30% share that max players receive when they have 7-9 years of experience. ben mclemore remains on his rookie contract, and he was the 7th pick in the draft, which means he earns less than the 6 picks before him, as it goes with all lottery selections. if the kings end up in the top-5 of this upcoming draft, they'll be able to snag a talented player like, say, jabari parker on a rookie-scaled contract, while mclemore still remains on his...

that leaves the kings with only one hefty contract (cousins) between their three cornerstone pieces. the kings have got a few contracts expiring this offseason. they've got a couple expiring next offseason. they should either allow those contracts to run their course, or they should attempt to trade their dead weight for second rounders/more immediate enders, in order to eventually sign veteran roleplayers that more effectively fill in the gaps around the young, top-tier talent they've acquired through the draft. if those contracts are smartly-constructed, the team has the necessary capspace to re-sign their young talent (mclemore/theoretical draft pick like jabari parker/cousins on his third contract) when it comes time to pay them...

in my opinion, the following rules constitute "the big four" of rebuilding: 1) lose enough games to put yourself in a strategic position to draft well, 2) draft well with that position, 3) commit to young talent via contract extension, 4) DO NOT overpay roleplayers. it's why so many of us were peeved by the carl landry signing. you give a guy like that a two-year deal when you're a rebuilding franchise. or, preferably, you don't sign him at all. but you definitely don't saddle yourself with unnecessary financial baggage for four years simply because you're desperate to make a move...
 
I think this is largely a debate about semantics. Personally, I root for wins. But I also root for player development. I think that's the FO plan for this season. Starting tomorrow, hopefully the nonsense of starting MT and salmons is done, and we can actually play the players that still can develop, and heck, that includes jimmer. In theory, or at least my theory going into the season, was that we'd win more games with the vets starting. Too many to get a decent pick. The vets played themselves out of the lineup, which is a good thing for both now and the future.

my view on the whole thing is: everything that's happening right now is fine and dandy. the team is losing, not as a by-product of shoddy coaching, suspect team chemistry or lack of effort from the scant few players that deserve to be on the team long-term (to wit: Cousins, Demarcus; Mclemore, Ben and maybe throw in Isaiah as well). Malone is proving to be capable, Cousins is proving to be the franchise cornerstone we expected him to be and all those issues that have long been lamented as root causes for the systemic failure to win games over the last few years (rim protection, the SF position, etc) and that have not been, for whatever reason, addressed last offseason have reared their head again, figuratively yelling at our front office to finally be fixed.

even with the few minor tweaks that are possible with this roster -more playing time for Ben and Luc, the return of Carl Landry and shots starting to fall at a more reasonable rate- this team will still clearly be a bottom 5-7 team, especially with the surprisingly solid play of suspected tankers such as PHX, PHI and BOS. the only scenario that would really cheese me off, is one in which the team ends the season with a strong run against other bottom feeders (ie. direct ping pong ball competition) on the backs of Thornton, Salmons and PPat (ie. guys that have no future on this team) and thus catapults itself out of the draft range that's likely to produce another cornerstone-type player. should there be such a run due to strong play from Cuz, Isaiah, Luc and the McRookies, otoh, that would be an entirely different conversation.
 
[Jackass Nitpick Mode]

Ben Wallace and Brad Miller weren't drafted.

[/Jackass Nitpick Mode]


LOL! Picky, picky, picky.. I knew someone would bring up undrafted freeagents. Your right of course, but that has nothing to do with my general premise. OK, note, keep and eye on Mr. Citrus when your back is turned....;)
 
That's a pretty poor article, top to bottom. Doesn't give enough evidence. Bad teams have bad front offices that in turn make bad picks, make bad signings, etc., no matter where they draft. Jimmer and Trob are two examples of franchise stunting picks. Signing Landry is a good example. Losing tyreke for a flier on a flat footed no defense pg, another example.

Contrast that with the spurs, who seem to find gems in the draft no matter where they draft. But it took a tank, which may have been their only choice due to what turned out to be, in the long run, lucky injuries to Robinson and Elliot, to get the foundation of Tim Duncan to build around.

Until we get a decent FO that looks like it has any idea what it's doing (and actually backs up talk of a strong defensive team by getting strong defensive players), I'm not sure it matters where we draft. The sins of the last regime are well documented. Fact is, we haven't, and granted, in a very short time frame, moved forward in any significant way with the new FO. Petrie could have and would have drafted mclemore. That's the only smart thing they've done anyone on here can legitimately get excited about as yet. And that was dumb luck. Which you also need to succeed btw.

Will they make smart moves going forward? We sure are hoping, but I've seen little tangible results to think we have turned a corner in that regard. Again, enormously short time frame, so I'm being unfair. But that's what fans do.

I think this is largely a debate about semantics. Personally, I root for wins. But I also root for player development. I think that's the FO plan for this season. Starting tomorrow, hopefully the nonsense of starting MT and salmons is done, and we can actually play the players that still can develop, and heck, that includes jimmer. In theory, or at least my theory going into the season, was that we'd win more games with the vets starting. Too many to get a decent pick. The vets played themselves out of the lineup, which is a good thing for both now and the future.


I agree with a lot of what you say. I also find myself screaming at my TV trying to vicariously ignite some fire in the team. At the end, the only thing I can take solace in, is that were probably going to have a very good choice in the draft if the team continues to play the way it has. The truth is, this isn't a very good team, and I think everyone in their hearts knows it. So, having said that, I also know that it will take time to change out some of the parts. That's just the reality of it. And, I think its appropriate that we hold their feet to the fire, lest they forget!

A significant quote from Malone in todays Bee says it all. And I paraphrase, " I'm not sure if we have more players on this team that want to win, than want to lose." That's quite a statement coming from a head coach. Personally, give me five players that go out and bust their butts, and I can live with the rest. Give me total effort, and losing is at least palatable. Entertain me! Give me a damm good reason to buy a ticket. That's all I ask right now. As for tanking? This team doesn't need to tank. It will find its way to the lottery either way. That's the sad truth. Or maybe, the shinning light in the future. When the bread turns stale, you don't continue to eat it. You throw it out, and buy a new loaf. I think I see some mold on a few pieces.
 
while technically/semantically correct, this doesn't really reflect the reality. if you are a team and the guy you draft is good enough for you to want to keep him, you get to, period. it basically was so before the new cba, but now there's pretty much no wriggle room any more. after playing out his first contract, players now become restricted free agents, unless their team doesn't want them to. so in a sense, you draft your guy for two contracts, one of which pretty much guarantees that they'll be underpaid, thanks to the rookie scale. another reason, btw, why draft picks are more valuable than ever.
It a serious distinction in methodology for gathering stats. Numbers are great but you have to precise in gathering the numbers that actually represent what you want to measure otherwise stats are useless at best and down right misleading at worse.
 
I was pretty disappointed in this article - I expect more from the Freakonomics guys. In fact, it inspired me to do a little research on my own.

I decided to go back 30 years and tally up the top 3 players on each championship team - 90 players overall. (In a few cases I had to make some arbitrary decisions on who was the #3 guy on the team but it actually didn't make any difference for the most important numbers I present here.) How were these top three pieces of championship teams (T3PCT) acquired? The breakdown is perhaps a bit surprising:

Free Agency: 9 (10%)
Trade: 27 (30%)
Draft: 54 (60%)

Note that the list of draftees does include 5 championships for Kobe, who was technically a draft day trade. Even without Kobe, 54% of all T3PCTs were acquired in the draft.

But that might include a large number of players like Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili, who were late draft picks made by already-successful teams, so why not look at the importance of top-5 draft picks?

T3PCT drafted #1-#5: 54 (60%)
T3PCT drafted #-1-#5 by the team they won a championship for: 33 (37%)

These are impressive numbers. Almost two-thirds of T3PCTs are top-5 picks, and more than one-third were picked by the team that won. Looked at another way, over the last 30 years, the average championship team has had 1.1 players that it drafted top-5. In fact, in the last 30 years, only 8 teams have won a championship without having their own top-5 draft pick as one of their top three players, and 5 of those 8 were led by Kobe, who was drafted anomalously low because he refused to sign in a small market. That leaves three non-caveat teams that have managed to assemble a championship roster without using their own top-five pick. Those teams are:

Nowitzki-Kidd-Chandler Mavs (Kidd acquired for Mavs recent #5 Harris)
Garnett-Pierce-Allen Celtics (Allen acquired for Celtics #5 in draft)
Billups-Big Ben-Hamilton Pistons (Wallace acquired for 6-year vet and Pistons #3 overall Grant Hill)

So each of those three teams had a top-five pick that directly turned into one of their T3PCTs. Let's recap. Of the last 30 championship teams:
22 have drafted at least one of their T3PCTs with their own top-5 pick
3 have acquired at least one of their T3PCTs by trading the fruits of their own top-5 pick
5 lucked into Kobe Bryant, who is a bit of an anomalous situation

The draft appears to be really incredibly important. Free agency, on the other hand, would appear to be a very unlikely place to acquire T3PCTs. There have been nine of these, but only 5 total players, and three teams:
Shaq on the Lakers (3)
LeBron (2)
Bosh (2)
Mourning (1)
Billups (1)

Wow. Over the last 30 years only seven championship teams have featured as many as ONE player acquired in free agency: Three Lakers teams, three Heat teams, and one Pistons team. Interestingly, all of the players in question were drafted in the top 4.

Other things to consider include the fact that only 8 teams have won a championship at all over the last 30 years (Bulls, Lakers, Heat, Celtics, Pistons, Rockets, Mavericks, Spurs). Of those, only one - the Spurs - really meets the criteria of a small-market team and they only got to the level of being a championship team by having two #1 overall picks on their roster to start. So there's a large-market bias that can't completely be attributed to free agency.

In the end, the general rule is that to win a championship in the NBA you need to
1) Have a top-five pick,
or
2) Be a large market,
or
3) Preferably both.

High draft picks matter A LOT. It's nearly impossible to win without them.

Kobe should be in the traded for not the drafted. The Lakers weren't in position to draft him via their record. It was basically trading a late first rounder (Vlade) for him.

You have a better argument counting Dirk as drafted since he was traded for another draft pick just a few slots away.
 
Capt. You miss the point that once a draft pick signs their SECOND contract they are no longer a draft pick, they are a Free Agent REGARDLESS of who signs them. The drafting team only KEEPS them by entering into the FA market for talent. The fact that they choose to sign a guy they had last season gives the draft no merit. If a player rocks in their rookie season you credit the draft. If they get you a championship on their second contract you have to credit free agency. To do otherwise grossly skews your analysis to favor the draft and over look the importance of Free Agency and the reality that most top FA's sign with the team that drafted them.

In one sentence after the original contract you no longer have the player due to the draft, you have him due to free agency.

Wrong. They could be extended on their rookie contract or have been a restricted free agent. They were never at risk of leaving the team via free agency.
 
Wrong. They could be extended on their rookie contract or have been a restricted free agent. They were never at risk of leaving the team via free agency.
They were KEPT through contract so the Loto ceases to be a factor once the new contract takes effect end of story.
 
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