Who might drop in NBA draft (a'la Brady Quinn)?

[John Galt]

Given what has happened this morning thru the 10th pick and beyond in the NFL:

Who in the NBA draft is a consensus top pick in the press... in the hype machine... but could feasably drop all the way to 10? Jainlian? Noah?

What is the most realistic "Kings get lucky the guy drops" scenario? Not conservative, but rather optimistic and imaginative...

 

[Dime Dropper]

Good thread. A number of players spring to mind when I think of players that could fall to us. Jeff Green, Noah, and possibly Julian Wright. I think there will be some surprises in this draft, I think Thaddeus Young will go (or should go) top 12. To me, he looks like he can be a superstar in the Pierce mould.

 

[gunks]

I could see Noah dropping to 10th.


And hopefully lower, I dont really want that guy as a King.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Good thread. A number of players spring to mind when I think of players that could fall to us. Jeff Green, Noah, and possibly Julian Wright. I think there will be some surprises in this draft, I think Thaddeus Young will go (or should go) top 12. To me, he looks like he can be a superstar in the Pierce mould.

Young isn't likely to enter because he says he's only entering if he gets a lottery promise which he won't get.

 

[Smills91]

Julian Wright

 

[nbrans]

Good thread. A number of players spring to mind when I think of players that could fall to us. Jeff Green, Noah, and possibly Julian Wright. I think there will be some surprises in this draft, I think Thaddeus Young will go (or should go) top 12. To me, he looks like he can be a superstar in the Pierce mould.

Yeah, I'm not sure why Thaddeus Young hasn't gotten the hype that Jeff Green and Julian Wright have. He's not quite as athletic as those guys (still really athletic), but he has two things those guys don't -- moves to the hoop and a jump shot. He's a prototypical small forward. So why are those guys the ones getting all the hype?

 

[nbrans]

In the spirit of the thread, though, one guy who might drop is Yi Jianlian. I read somewhere (can't remember where) that the Chinese government wants him to go to a big market with a sizeable Chinese population if they're going to let him play in the NBA. That could potentially scare away some of the teams in the lottery.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Yeah, I'm not sure why Thaddeus Young hasn't gotten the hype that Jeff Green and Julian Wright have. He's not quite as athletic as those guys (still really athletic), but he has two things those guys don't -- moves to the hoop and a jump shot. He's a prototypical small forward. So why are those guys the ones getting all the hype?

Because Green is a junior and has had a much more successful college career, same with Wright. Young while probably has more just as much if not more talent than them had a disappointing freshman season and is underdeveloped. That stuff affects your stock.

 

[Bricklayer]

Noah and Wright could slip. If Jeff Green is a #10 pick though that's actually a bit of a reach, not a slip.

Oden, Durant, B. Wright, Horford are all locks to be gone by then.

of the other top picks -- mentioned in another thread I started that at least 1 of Jianlin, Hibbert, Hawes, Brewer, J. Wright and Noah will be there at #10.

That's before we even get to the Jeff Greens and whatnot.

 

[fnordius]

In the spirit of the thread, though, one guy who might drop is Yi Jianlian. I read somewhere (can't remember where) that the Chinese government wants him to go to a big market with a sizeable Chinese population if they're going to let him play in the NBA. That could potentially scare away some of the teams in the lottery.

Seattle, Portland and Chicago all have significant numbers of Chinese-Americans living there. There are some reasons why each of those teams might not pick him, but they all pick before we do. And we don't really meet either of the Chinese gov't criteria ourselves.

 

[Bricklayer]

Seattle, Portland and Chicago all have significant numbers of Chinese-Americans living there. There are some reasons why each of those teams might not pick him, but they all pick before we do. And we don't really meet either of the Chinese gov't criteria ourselves.

a) I wonder if proximity to the Bay Area would count?

b) I always wonder at statements like these from the Chinese government -- would they really? Really? They huff and they puff a lot, desperately need to be overthrown etc., but they don't have the 100% control of the pure old communist system, nor do they often act like it. Seems more often to be them puffing as a prelude to negotiations as much as them taking actual unilateral action.

 

[fnordius]

of the other top picks -- mentioned in another thread I started that at least 1 of Jianlin, Hibbert, Hawes, Brewer, J. Wright and Noah will be there at #10.

That's before we even get to the Jeff Greens and whatnot.

Well, hopefully. Both Hibbert and Green are without agents, meaning they're still testing the waters and may go back to Georgetown in September.

I think Hibbert would be crazy to do that, but I thought that about Noah last year, too.

 

[John Galt]

Noah and Wright could slip. If Jeff Green is a #10 pick though that's actually a bit of a reach, not a slip.

Oden, Durant, B. Wright, Horford are all locks to be gone by then.

of the other top picks -- mentioned in another thread I started that at least 1 of Jianlin, Hibbert, Hawes, Brewer, J. Wright and Noah will be there at #10.

Which of those guys would be the most pleasant surprise to get?
Which of those guys would be the biggest upset (unlikeliest to drop)?

I guess what I'm getting at is - I would love to have a Brady Quinn with a giant chip on his shoulder and something to prove... like Matt Leinart last year. Who is the guy in this draft who could become that... drop to 10 as a upset, and come out with something to prove because of it.

 

[Entity]

Espn mock draft has us getting Hibbert at 10

 

[nbrans]

Because Green is a junior and has had a much more successful college career, same with Wright. Young while probably has more just as much if not more talent than them had a disappointing freshman season and is underdeveloped. That stuff affects your stock.

I agree with you that this is the perception, but check out their college stats:

Young:
14.4 pts, 4.9 rebs, 2.0 ast, 2.2 tos, .478 FG%, .419 3P%, .743 FT%

Wright:
12.0 pts, 7.0 rebs, 2.2 ast, 2.4 tos, .564 FG%, .231 3P%, .613 FT%

Green:
14.3 pts, 6.4 rebs, 3.2 ast, 2.6 tos, .513 FG%, .375 3P%, .775 FT%

Now, when you look at these numbers, I don't really see why Young would be considered to have such a disappointing season, except that Tech wasn't that good this year. It seems like he's mostly just a victim of expectations.

To me, offensively, small forwards coming into the NBA need to shoot and they need to be able to take the ball to the rim. Young is way farther along on these skills than Wright, a sophomore, and Green, a junior. Although he doesn't have a great handle, he can create his own shot and can shoot the college 3. He's right in their league athletically. I throw out rebounding, because small forwards don't really rebound in the NBA.

So when you look at it this way, it doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me why Wright and Green are so far ahead of Young on the draft charts. With Wright and Green, you just have to hope that they're going to learn to shoot, but with Young it's just more of a matter of polishing the skills he already has.

 

[rhythmless]

i had a dream last night that yi slipped to 10th, and we got him.

 

[Bricklayer]

As I understand it Young's issues are rebounding, defense, and toughness. I think the concern is that he's a risk as maybe being Tim Thomas all over again. Have the tools, but being unwilling or unable to impose them on the opponent. he's young though...but then again so was Thomas when he entered the league.

 

[Gilles]

Durant basicly played PF/C in Texas, Green was PF, Young was SF. I don't think rebounding is that big of an issue. More than half the teams in college exploit 3-gaurd lineups which means that true NBA SFs with not very good ballhandling go against guys quicker than themselves and hesitate whether to drive or not. Rudy Gay had similar problem last year. Durant and Green were guarded by PFs. Obviously it's easier to drive past Chuck Hayes than past Antonio Daniels.
With said Young's sometimes total disappearence is a consern.

 

[kennadog]

Seattle, Portland and Chicago all have significant numbers of Chinese-Americans living there. There are some reasons why each of those teams might not pick him, but they all pick before we do. And we don't really meet either of the Chinese gov't criteria ourselves.

Actually New York and its boroughs may have the largest number of Chinese-Amercans. The SF/Oakland/San Jose area has a very large number as well as the greater LA metro area. If they really want that, those would be the three that really meet the criteria. And I'd have to think they'd like LA or the SF/Oakland bay area. Simply for the fact they are closer to China (time zones). Sacramento is probably too small market, but if the Kings got a Chinese player, I'd be willing to bet a lot of Chinese Bay Area fans would be at Arco.

Chicago has a fairly large population, but nothing like the above. Seattle has about the same numbers as Sacramento and Portland numbers are much smaller than either Seattle or Sacramento. Houston has more than all three of those.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._cities_with_large_Chinese_American_populations

 

[Vlade4GM]

Seattle I can see picking him. Portland I doubt since they got Randolph and it appears like they want to keep him. This doesn't really matter though, I highly doubt China will threaten any teams.

 

[Kingster]

Noah could definitely slip. I think he could be the guy that everybody talks about on ESPN, just like Quinn. And I think he could fall a lot lower than the Kings' pick at 10. To be consistent with my other posts though, he does have great speed for a big man, he does have good quickness. He can come from the weak side to block a shot. But he's got virtually no offensive game at all. Can he be a Beidrin's type of player? I just don't see him being in that same class. Maybe he's a poor man's Beidrin's...

 

[walker60]

If he is available I doubt we would pass on him at number ten. I just don't see who else we would rather have. Hawes, Hibbert?

 

[Kingster]

a) I wonder if proximity to the Bay Area would count?

b) I always wonder at statements like these from the Chinese government -- would they really? Really? They huff and they puff a lot, desperately need to be overthrown etc., but they don't have the 100% control of the pure old communist system, nor do they often act like it. Seems more often to be them puffing as a prelude to negotiations as much as them taking actual unilateral action.

Along the same lines, does Houston have big Chinese population? Sounds screwy to me. What happens with a draft and trade? Are they going to call him home? Are Chinese secret agents going to wisk him off in the middle of the night because he's now a New Orlean's Hornet or a Sacramento King?

 

[Kingster]

Which of those guys would be the most pleasant surprise to get?
Which of those guys would be the biggest upset (unlikeliest to drop)?

I guess what I'm getting at is - I would love to have a Brady Quinn with a giant chip on his shoulder and something to prove... like Matt Leinart last year. Who is the guy in this draft who could become that... drop to 10 as a upset, and come out with something to prove because of it.

I would take Brewer so fast that the ESPN guys wouldn't have the time it took to get one word out of their mouth on the previous guy taken. He's a no-brainer. Low risk. Very athletic. Bigtime defender. Bigtime shot maker. Wingspan of a 7 footer. What's not to like? If this guy doesn't become an All-Star, then it will make me wonder about every notion, assumption and perception I have concerning NBA talent. All confidence will be gone. I will become a shell of myself, lose confidence, and be a bagman at 6th & J.

But I don't see him dropping to 10. That would be waay to much to hope for.

 

[Kingster]

If he is available I doubt we would pass on him at number ten. I just don't see who else we would rather have. Hawes, Hibbert?

I'd choose Hawes out of the three. He can punish - literally and figuratively - guys in the post. He's not a great shot blocker, but he does have the quickness and toughness to get to a spot to take a charge. Not as slow as Hibbert, not as fast as Noah, but he can really score down low. I'm not sure about his ability to score outside? I faintly recall him scoring outside of 15 feet. If that's the case, then it's easy to pick him over the other two.

 

[rhythmless]

i dont see hibbert falling to 10 at all. too big, too much of an inside presence