I don't think it's flawed at all. The league is changing and unless the NBA moves the 3 point line back or makes other rule changes, the effectiveness of big men is going to continue to fade because of the 3 point shot. Players are making it at too high of a clip these days. Why do you think the Rockets have the #1 offense? All they do is shoot 3's.
It is flawed. You're asserting that a dominate big man can't still lead a team to a title simply because the teams on top right now don't happen to have one. But it's simply not true.
Until the Warriors did it several years back, many claimed that a jump shooting team couldn't win a title. But it happened.
Like it's always been, winning a title is about having loads of talent but also the right mix of players. If a player such as Anthony Davis has enough talent and the right mix of players around him, he's going to win a title and it doesn't matter that he's not primarily a 3 pt shooter.
I fully agree with you that the game has developed and changed. But it's not like the 3 pt line was just implemented a few years back. It's been around since 1979. Furthermore, the recent emphasis on 3 pt shooting actually benefits a dominant big because it creates more spacing in the post.
If Shaq in his prime was in the league today, he'd still win titles despite not shooting threes himself. He'd need the right supporting cast around him as he did in LA and Miami, but he'd win titles and still dominate as he did 15 years ago.
Actually, he'd be likely to dominate even more than he did then if today's teams refused to adapt and stayed with their small lineups. Shaq's FG% was high 50's and low 60's back when legit 7 footers were defending him. If today's teams used undersized 4's on him, he'd be somewhere around 65% and probably even closer to 70%.
For the past 5 seasons, the very best 3 pt shooting team shot 39.1, 39.1, 41.6, 39.8 and 40.9 respectively. This season, the Rockets led the league in attempts with 42.3 attempt per (converted at 36.2%). The league average is around 29 per and the average conversion rate matches the Rockets 36.2%.
It doesn't take a nuclear physicist to recognize that 58% of 2 pointers >>>>> 36.2 of three's. All Shaq would need do in today's game guarded by undersized 4's to best the Warriors 41.6% from 2015 is average 62.5% -- which he could easily do. And that's not even counting his free throw production (even at 58% conversion) which means a team would have to shoot far better than 42% for the math to workout for them.
Shaq only took around 18-20 shot per back in the day, compared to the 29 threes teams are averaging today ... but Shaq's attempts would be higher today to take advantage of the mismatches. Then add in his FT attempts and HIS teammates shooting somewhere around the league average of 36.2% on whatever 3 pt attempts they ended up taking.
Similar logic applies to Tim Duncan, Hakeem Olajuwon or whatever other elite big you want top name.
