Which Big Name Free Agent to Target?

[KingMilz]

I think part of the problem with the Magic last season (and previous ones), is that they never seemed to stick with the same line up at SF and PF - in fact, I'm sure line up wise they had amongst the most different line ups. They had O'Quinn, Frye, Deadmon, Nicholson, Harris, and Gordon all start at point last season.

So he'd get a run, then they'd make a change, and for some reason he lost minutes to Nicholson and Deadmon when Borego took charge. But whenever he played he did a steady job. He's not got to blow anyone away offensively, but as a stand-in starter, or rotation off the bench, he's certainly got the ability to be useful.

I think him going in and out was more down to their lacklustre coaching and inability to decide on their best line up, than it was anything O'Quinn did. But to be honest, he did as good a job as any of the rest (maybe bar Harris) when he stepped in.

O ok thanks for that I was also doing a bit of reading up on the situation and it also said he was badly bothered for a good while be a severe ankle sprain (missed a solid chunk of games )and yeah your complete right I actually forgot about the coaching change.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I guess I like to take an approach that isn't as lazy (don't mean to offend you) and try to know why that happend rather than saying "he didn't start there, so he can't start here."

It is interesting to say the least why he didn't get much time. They do have a lot of guys they can go big with Vucevic, Dedmon, Frye, Nicholson, Harris, Gordon, & O'Quinn. I'm not sure if it can be chalked up to a log jam or not.

I wonder if anyone on this forum follows the Magic close enough to know. If not, I might do some digging on some Magic forums.

Hey, I'm not claiming to have the answer, just raising the question. I imagined some folks here paid closer attention to the Magic than just looking at box scores like I did, and that seems to have been the case.

Sounds like it could be an opportunity to buy low and take advantage of another team's turmoil for once.

 

[Gilles]

I remember some rumblings, that O'Quinn didn't exactly like to spend a lot of time on perimeter, just standing there like Frye in attempt to open space inside for Oladipo and Payton. There was no additional information, whether he wanted to bang inside or just more shots, though, so who knows, what his motivation is.
Still Kyle does have problems with health, and at this point he's too much of a question-mark to look at him as a starter, but then O'Quinn has to be #4 big, and given that he's an RFA it probably takes JT/Landry level contract for Orlando not to match, which is pretty rich for 4th big. I think some PO team, that needs front court help, will offer him MLE.

 

[twslam07]

O ok thanks for that I was also doing a bit of reading up on the situation and it also said he was badly bothered for a good while be a severe ankle sprain (missed a solid chunk of games )and yeah your complete right I actually forgot about the coaching change.

Asked some Magic fans last night. These were some of the responses I got:

1. Struggled with fouls/foul prone
2. Didn't play well next to Vucevic
3. Dedmon outplayed him
4. Lacks mobility/struggles when pulled away from the basket/too slow to play the 4
5. Doesn't have great size for a 5
6. Poor awareness on defense/defense regressed (was surprised by this a little, but not too many people mentioned it)
7. Ankle injury/didn't look 100% all year

Fouls were probably mentioned the most along with the emergence of Dedmon and mobility issues on the perimeter.

There was also a poster who went into good detail on him which made him/her seem more credible. He/she went on to say that the coach wanted him to develop a 3pt shot to help space the floor while he's better at banging in the post. He/she chalked it up to poor coaching/misusing him.

 

[twslam07]

As for WCS he should be 4th big to start the season anyway with JT as #3 and a vet as #5. I like Amir Johnson as a starter next to Boogie more, than Gibson at this moment, but Taj will fit good as well.

Amir Johnson will bring a hefty price tag, probably a 4 year $36-$40 million contract to get it done.

The Problem with signing Amir to such a large contract is if we draft WCS, then Amir would be a probable bench big in 2 years with a $9 mil/yr contract.

Disagree even if we give Johnson 11-12mill it's alright. WCS would be on his rookie deal when he's up for an extension Johnson will expire so that cancels out any salary problem. Having 2 good defensive PFs is a problem championship teams have if we have that then we are on our way. Also I don't care what anyone says WCS won't have a major impact next year he's a rookie. Let WCS play 25-30mpg for the next 2 years.

Did some more digging on Amir Johnson. Found this thread about him on RealGM. I thought it might be relevant for all of us who were thinking about Johnson as a possibility next to Cousins next year.

http://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=32&t=1388353

 

[Gilles]

Just for reference http://hoopshype.com/free_agency/power_forwards_2015.htm lists him as just #14 PF

In the end it's all about the market:
1. Who needs a starting PF and has a fit?
2. Who has money, since Raptors let him go, because they want to use cap space, so they won't facilitate S&T?

1. All PO teams in the West have their PFs, and if Portland loses Aldridge, I don't see them going after win-now player. OKC and Utah have too much bigs; Nuggets have Faried, and if they start wholesale, same as Portland; LAL have similar caliber player in Hill; Phoenix has Morrii and Minnesota is too young to push for POs in the West. East: Sixers, Hornets and Magic are not customers with their youngsters; among PO teams Brooklyn wants Thad Young back and also has Teletovic, Atlanta might be an option, if Millsap is gone, Boston might be, everyone else is set/doesn't want him back; Miami has Bosh; Pacers have West; Melo is bulking up, are Knicks an option?
2. Seems like in the West only Lakers look like option, if they see Hill as a center and don't want to rely on redshirted freshman; will Phoenix spend some of their money, if they feel, that Morrii are in real trouble with the law? In the East Atlanta, Boston, Knicks? Doesn't feel like that big a market.

 

[jcwkings]

Theres no way we sign another middle of the road PF and I see it very hard to trade JT or Landry. We are in a bind with those two. The only solution I can think of is to draft WCS so that we have two 7 footers/ rim protectors in he and Cuz and that rids of seeing a Reggie Evans Carl Landry combo PF/C. If you pair Landry with WCS in the second unit they probably work well together as each guys strength is the other guys weakness. Assuming WCS can contribute right away Cuz, WCS, JT, Landry, Gay is a pretty solid front line. I think we will have to deal with JT and Landry for at least one more season, after which both are more easily moved.

 

[Gilles]

Landry is junk on offense (could barely function within team concept under Malone, and has no place under Karl), and barely passable for a bench player on D.

WCS is a rookie, so you don't start him 2-3 months at least by default - no winning team does that.

And balking at "middle of the road PF" with excellent fit? Low-key defensive PF, who Kings need next to Boogie, should by definition look middling: won't have a lot of points or rebounds next to DMC.

 

[twslam07]

I see it very hard to trade JT or Landry. We are in a bind with those two.

I don't understand this line of thinking.

Landry? Yes. We all want to get rid of him especially at that price tag.

Thompson? No. He's a valuable player to this team and his contract is not bad at all. Ideally his contract is around around $4-5 mil/year. I think that's about right for his services under the current cap. However, the cap goes up in his last year ($89 mil). His $6.8 mil contract in 2016-2017 will be same as a $5.1 mil contract today. To me, that's about on par with what a good third big provides.

Thompson has his downfalls (lack of rim protection, boneheaded plays, sloppy defensive rotations), but he does bring a lot of value as well (post defense, rebounding, midrange jumper, hustle/energy, & the ability to play the 4 and 5). He's not a bad contract. We need to stop treating him as such. It's not everyday you find a guy who has a knack for slowing down the majority of the all-star caliber PFs in the west. Those players shouldn't be tossed aside so quickly.

 

[ParniValjak]

Theres no way we sign another middle of the road PF and I see it very hard to trade JT or Landry. We are in a bind with those two. The only solution I can think of is to draft WCS so that we have two 7 footers/ rim protectors in he and Cuz and that rids of seeing a Reggie Evans Carl Landry combo PF/C. If you pair Landry with WCS in the second unit they probably work well together as each guys strength is the other guys weakness. Assuming WCS can contribute right away Cuz, WCS, JT, Landry, Gay is a pretty solid front line. I think we will have to deal with JT and Landry for at least one more season, after which both are more easily moved.

The problem is that Landry doesn't fit into Karl's system all that well. On JT, don't forget his last year of the deal is only partially guaranteed (IIRC $2m) so he is almost an expiring deal after next season so essentially he can be traded as a semi expiring deal this offseason but more likely around the trade deadline. Similarly to what happened with Salmons.

I still think there is a good chance that we use stretch provision on Landry to free up more cap space. We'll shop the pick hard but if we keep it, for me its either WCS or it's bust!

 

[Hansel]

We have to keep an eye on Europe this summer, imho. And I think/hope Vlade knows that.
I'm not talking about prospects, I'm talking about already proven players.
Salary cap is gonna rise sky-high soon, that means no Euroleague team will be able to match a NBA lower-than-average offer.
I try to explain my intentions with an example.
If you offer to Teodosic a 20-25 milion dollars deal for 5 years (betwewn 4x5 and 5x5), right know looks like a lot of money but in a couple of years we will talk about a small contract in the team payroll (about an actual 2-3 milion dollars deal) for a proven player.
Nobody in Europe is able to match this kind of offer.

 

[Dime Dropper]

We have to keep an eye on Europe this summer, imho. And I think/hope Vlade knows that.
I'm not talking about prospects, I'm talking about already proven players.
Salary cap is gonna rise sky-high soon, that means no Euroleague team will be able to match a NBA lower-than-average offer.
I try to explain my intentions with an example.
If you offer to Teodosic a 20-25 milion dollars deal for 5 years (betwewn 4x5 and 5x5), right know looks like a lot of money but in a couple of years we will talk about a small contract in the team payroll (about an actual 2-3 milion dollars deal) for a proven player.
Nobody in Europe is able to match this kind of offer.

That's a good idea and Teodosic would be a very good signing at that salary, probably even with the current salary cap. Not sure if he'd be willing to leave Europe though but I understand your point.

 

[Hansel]

Of course, maybe some players prefer to stay in Europe (like Diamantidis or Bodiroga did), but I'm sure lots of them would like to test themselves in the NBA for the double of the salary they can get here in Europe.
I choose Teodosic as an example because he went undrafted so he is basically an UFA.

 

[206Fan]

Of course, maybe some players prefer to stay in Europe (like Diamantidis or Bodiroga did), but I'm sure lots of them would like to test themselves in the NBA for the double of the salary they can get here in Europe.
I choose Teodosic as an example because he went undrafted so he is basically an UFA.

I feel like Teodosic is a long shot, but I see your point. I wouldn't be surprised if Vlade had a strong connection with him. Which players do you think wouldn't mind coming overseas next year?

 

[Hansel]

I feel like Teodosic is a long shot, but I see your point. I wouldn't be surprised if Vlade had a strong connection with him. Which players do you think wouldn't mind coming overseas next year?

Big question, I don't know.
I have to check which ones have an expiring deal this summer.
I'm curious to see Bjelica (Nemanja, not Milko) in the NBA who is playing right now in Turkey, but I'm sure some NBA team has his rights (TWolves I suppose, but I'm not sure).
Really important is to use these players in the right way. They're great playing in a system, not one-against-five or out of position.
That's why all these european or FIBA players seem to fit just for the Spurs.
Spanoulis during the last 3 years was easily the most influent player in european basketball, but he didn't fit in the NBA.
Same for Jasikevicius, he was the best PG by far in Europe and the Pacers used to use him as a SG just because he was a good shooter.

 

[206Fan]

Big question, I don't know.
I have to check which ones have an expiring deal this summer.
I'm curious to see Bjelica (Nemanja, not Milko) in the NBA who is playing right now in Turkey, but I'm sure some NBA team has his rights (TWolves I suppose, but I'm not sure).
Really important is to use these players in the right way. They're great playing in a system, not one-against-five or out of position.
That's why all these european or FIBA players seem to fit just for the Spurs.
Spanoulis during the last 3 years was easily the most influent player in european basketball, but he didn't fit in the NBA.
Same for Jasikevicius, he was the best PG by far in Europe and the Pacers used to use him as a SG just because he was a good shooter.

I think the Kings missed in last year's draft by not storing European talent. I think Bogdanvoic is going to be a very good player.

The only concern is convincing them to come over seas.

 

[Hansel]

In Europe bball players are playing for money as well.
If you pay them 2-3 times more than their "european" wage , most of them will accept to play in the NBA.
It's not so easy under this actual salary cap, but in a couple of years will be different.
Anyway, if I was an NBA GM I'd use the second round pick to draft an european player. Every single year.
I'm "suggesting" this scenario since ages, even on this forum I think.
Sometimes you throw the pick away, sometimes if you're lucky enough you get a Ginobili or a Marc Gasol type of player.
But usually european players are safer picks than random guys from university, because they're playing pro basketball already.
Last year Houson selected Gentile with the 53rd pick, he could be a good rotation guy in the right context (Houston is a good situation for him, imo).
In the 2012 draft the NY Knicks selected Papanikolau with the 48th pick, who played decent minutes in a conference finalist context.
In the 2011 draft the 31st pick was Bojan Bogdanovic, who is playing 24' minutes per game in a playoff team.
And so on...

 

[The_Jamal]

I'd be down with bringing in Ed Davis or Thomas Robinson (or both). Davis not getting more time last season and basically platooning with Boozer showed how bad of a coach Scott is. Or how bad the Lakers wanted to tank, because was one of the only guys on that team who was really productive.

He's still just 25 years old and has been productive throughout his career on both ends of the floor. Can very easily see him as a breakout candidate with starter minutes.

 

[Mike]

I'd be down with bringing in Ed Davis or Thomas Robinson (or both). Davis not getting more time last season and basically platooning with Boozer showed how bad of a coach Scott is. Or how bad the Lakers wanted to tank, because was one of the only guys on that team who was really productive.

He's still just 25 years old and has been productive throughout his career on both ends of the floor. Can very easily see him as a breakout candidate with starter minutes.

Last season it wasn't just Carlos Boozer over Ed Davis at PF for the Lakers. They also played and started Ryan Kelly at PF, who towards the end of the season did a steady job; and Tarik Black got some time at PF as well. Now I don't disagree with you that Davis should have got more minutes for the Lakers last season because he's the type of player that should only get better, and considering they are rebuilding, I am surprised they didn't give him more minutes because he could have been a breakout player for them. But I suspect they wanted to take a look at Tarik Black and Ryan Kelly to see if they have a future with them, though why they played Boozer as much as they did is somewhat bemusing since he's not likely to be part of their future.

That said, I would like to see us sign Ed Davis. The kid is talented and should come at a fair price. He has the talent to start, and like you, I think he could be a breakout player if given a chance. But even if he doesn't achieve that, he has the ability to be an excellent back up PF. So as long as the price is right I would like to see us bring him in.

 

[Iced Espresso]

What do you guys think of a 1 year over pay for Danny Green? How much do you think he would get on the open market?

Offer him like 8-9 million, with a player option next season for around the same?

He gets paid, has security, and if he wants to leave or wants another contract he opts out when the cap skyrockets.

Assuming we draft WCS

Collison/Miller or Ray
McLemore/Stauskas
Rudy
WCS/Landry
Cousins/Thompson/Moreland

Ideally we use an exception to fill out the reserve slot at sf like Casspi.

 

[Gilles]

Green wants to be a Spur for life. He's getting $10+ million from Spurs. WCS shouldn't be a starter from the first day of his rookie season. And Landry certainly shouldn't be in big men rotation of George Karl's team.

 

[Iced Espresso]

Green wants to be a Spur for life. He's getting $10+ million from Spurs. WCS shouldn't be a starter from the first day of his rookie season. And Landry certainly shouldn't be in big men rotation on George Karl's team.

Slow down, lol.

You think Green gets 10 million from the Spurs or someone else on the open market?

We've got no shot if that was the case.

 

[dude12]

Danny Green is not going to get 10+ from SA......I would be surprised.

 

[Iced Espresso]

I'm honestly not sure what he will make, but if we exceed others by a little bit then give him the option to do what he likes with a cap increase I was thinking we had a shot.

 

[206Fan]

In Europe bball players are playing for money as well.
If you pay them 2-3 times more than their "european" wage , most of them will accept to play in the NBA.
It's not so easy under this actual salary cap, but in a couple of years will be different.
Anyway, if I was an NBA GM I'd use the second round pick to draft an european player. Every single year.
I'm "suggesting" this scenario since ages, even on this forum I think.
Sometimes you throw the pick away, sometimes if you're lucky enough you get a Ginobili or a Marc Gasol type of player.
But usually european players are safer picks than random guys from university, because they're playing pro basketball already.
Last year Houson selected Gentile with the 53rd pick, he could be a good rotation guy in the right context (Houston is a good situation for him, imo).
In the 2012 draft the NY Knicks selected Papanikolau with the 48th pick, who played decent minutes in a conference finalist context.
In the 2011 draft the 31st pick was Bojan Bogdanovic, who is playing 24' minutes per game in a playoff team.
And so on...

0 chance Rudy Fernandez ever comes over again, but he would be amazing here.

 

[Gilles]

Every contract this year will be signed with cap jump consideration.

 

[Iced Espresso]

Every contract this year will be signed with cap jump consideration.

In every player's favor?

I'm not so sure I'd make a flatline assumption like that, maybe with a wage increase, but not with necessarily player options on the role player level.

Giving someone an option could yield in theory a massive pay upgrade when more people have loot to spend.

 

[Mike]

Green wants to be a Spur for life. He's getting $10+ million from Spurs. WCS shouldn't be a starter from the first day of his rookie season. And Landry certainly shouldn't be in big men rotation on George Karl's team.

The thing to bare in mind with Danny Green (UFA) is that he is not the only Spurs free agent, and considering he's unrestricted, another team could quite easily put a big offer on the table that might make the Spurs decide to let him walk. After all, the Spurs have Kawhi Leonard (RFA), Tim Duncan (UFA) and Man Ginobili (UFA) hitting free agency. So can, or will, they decide to pay them all?

They currently have Tony Parker, Tiago Splitter, Boris Diaw, Patty Mills and Kyle Anderson under contract for $33.8 million. Leaving them with $33.1 million in cap space. I suppose it is possible that Duncan and Ginobili take home town discounts to allow them to re-sign Green and Leonard, to give them the best chance at contending for a championship as possible. But that scenario will likely eat up the majority of that cap space leaving them with some room to round off their roster with role players. Is that the best scenario for the Spurs? Or would they be better off letting Green walk, if they can persuade one of the premier free agents to sign with them?

Some have speculated that if LaMarcus Aldridge leaves Portland, he will return to Texas. If they could add LaMarcus Aldridge to their team they would be in better shape next season, and thereafter because Duncan isn't going to play forever. It would give them an All-Star calibre PF, and allow them to move Duncan to an off the bench role. Or perhaps they could decide to target Marc Gasol or DeAndre Jordan, who could step in and be an instant upgrade for them at center, and give them another star/borderline star to build their next era around. Granted, none of these players are guaranteed to leave their respective teams, but it is possible that the Spurs decide to target a premier free agent first, and only re-sign Green if their attempts to recruit one fails.

The kid is talented and is likely going to get paid, and it wouldn't surprise me to see another team put up a bigger offer than what the Spurs are willing to pay to secure him. In that event, it would test his commitment to being a Spur for life.

 

[Gilles]

After initial excitement of possibly signing a max FA came numbers-crunching, and even if Manu and Tim come back for vet mins, Spurs will have to strip their bench to a bare bone, which goes against their MO last few years, when they give a lot of rest to Old 3.

All I'm saying Spurs are opening their checkbook. And yes, they are well managed, and at some point around $12 million per, they likely say "Bye!". For Kings it likely means salary of $1 million more. Any takers?

 

[twslam07]

I've already been on the record of saying that I would be willing to sign Danny Green for $13 mil/year. When the cap jumps next year to 89 mil, it will be the same as a 9.8 mil/year deal under the current cap. When the cap jumps to 108 mil the following season, it will be the same as a 8.1 mil/year deal under the current cap.