The problem is that we've gotten so good at identifying who the great talents are going to be by the age of 18 (e.g. LeBron, Wemby at #1; Kobe, Giannis late lotto) that it becomes easy to believe that nobody really slips through that freshman net. The game becomes "draft them before they're fully ready or somebody else will". And that in turn leads to the thinking "by age 22 all the good ones are gone". It's not true, but there's a reason that fallacy exists and is compelling. Even though one might specifically acknowledge it isn't true when pressed, that fallacy still has the power to draw you in when you're not guarding against it.Jay Bilas was saying something about that on a pod the other day. When he was playing it was the norm that 22 year olds were still going through the development process and now everyone thinks you have to be 18 to develop
The biggest difference is shooting. If you can shoot you have a role. If you can’t and can’t defend, bye bye.
The three guys you mentioned though are all relic post-only bigs though. Raynaud looks like a wing on the perimeter offensively and he's projected to be an excellent spacer. 3 of the 4 final teams in the playoffs just showed how powerful being able to play 5-out is in the NBA. If Raynaud can access that set for us in 12-15 MPG as a back-up, that's a huge win and a huge boon to our offense.
To me, the guy you're talking about is Johnni Broome more than anything who doesn't have a place in the NBA anymore. Ground-bound post big, doesn't have great size to be a true C so more of a tweener, can't switch on the perimeter, doesn't project to be a shooter.
His coach said that they had him settle more on the defense because they ran everything through him and he couldn’t get into foul trouble. But when they needed him to play defense he could. His first 23 games of the season he had 27 blocks, his final 9 games he had 23 blocks.
Dude has a lot potential, especially since he has only played basketball seriously for the last four years.
The problem is that we've gotten so good at identifying who the great talents are going to be by the age of 18 (e.g. LeBron, Wemby at #1; Kobe, Giannis late lotto) that it becomes easy to believe that nobody really slips through that freshman net. The game becomes "draft them before they're fully ready or somebody else will". And that in turn leads to the thinking "by age 22 all the good ones are gone". It's not true, but there's a reason that fallacy exists and is compelling. Even though one might specifically acknowledge it isn't true when pressed, that fallacy still has the power to draw you in when you're not guarding against it.
That is exactly why there are so many busts in the NBA lottery. They are trying to project instead of believing what their eyes are seeing. Pretty much why players like Steph, Klay, Draymond, Lillard, and Jalen Brunson fell in their drafts.
Luka fell for pretty much the same reason too
“Not athletic enough” “how much better can he get”
I’m not sure why Maxime is considered a non-defensive big. He average 1.4 blocks, one steal and 10 rebounds per game. He may not be Wemby defensive monster, but I would say he should be serviceable on that end. After all, he went to Standford so he is a smart kid, I'm sure he can learn to play better pick and roll defense with proper coaching. To go along with the offensive repertoire, we could have a 2nd round steal.
Unless he puts on more bulk, I think he will be a stretch 4 in the league, reminds me of a young Lauri Marrkaren. If he was a freshman or sophomore coming into the draft, he would had been a lottery pick.
The problem is that we've gotten so good at identifying who the great talents are going to be by the age of 18 (e.g. LeBron, Wemby at #1; Kobe, Giannis late lotto) that it becomes easy to believe that nobody really slips through that freshman net. The game becomes "draft them before they're fully ready or somebody else will". And that in turn leads to the thinking "by age 22 all the good ones are gone". It's not true, but there's a reason that fallacy exists and is compelling. Even though one might specifically acknowledge it isn't true when pressed, that fallacy still has the power to draw you in when you're not guarding against it.
He's going to get used to contact in practice for sure.It's definitely his avoiding contact that sketches people out. On both ends he loses his balance if he's hit. He's a lot like a younger Porzinigis in that way. Tall, narrow, high center of gravity bigs are what they are. He can move laterally though so that's actually more important probably in such a switch heavy leage. Look at the dual big lineup the Thunder played, there were moments the Thunder just couldn't play it and Chet manned the C spot. The difference being is that even in high school you could tell Chet loved contact. He never backed down. Yeah, Lauri is a good comp too.
"He's chunky"
Technically this one was spot on
It's definitely his avoiding contact that sketches people out. On both ends he loses his balance if he's hit. He's a lot like a younger Porzinigis in that way. Tall, narrow, high center of gravity bigs are what they are. He can move laterally though so that's actually more important probably in such a switch heavy leage. Look at the dual big lineup the Thunder played, there were moments the Thunder just couldn't play it and Chet manned the C spot. The difference being is that even in high school you could tell Chet loved contact. He never backed down. Yeah, Lauri is a good comp too.
Hell yea!! I love to see this. Enough doom and gloom, Kings fans! Every season is different than the last. Let’s have faith this will be the good and fun kind againExcited enough about this to finally reset my password and log in. Let’s go Card!
Lyles has definitely proved he ought to be resigned for bench play.It sounds like Raynaud had settled on Sacramento as his preferred destination, which means the Kings will offer him a regular contract. His agent would not have allowed him to fall so far without guarantees from the Kings' front office. He will be the tallest player on the roster, an inch taller than Valančiūnas.
The signing will bring the Kings roster up to twelve players, not including two-way contracts such as Dylan Cardwell. There are still three open spots, with free agency starting next Wednesday. Lyles, LaRavia, Fultz, McDermott, Crowder, and Mason Jones are all free agents.
If you can't play at least average defense its a non-starter unless your lights out on shooting - why I can't stand LaVine who is below average at best on defense and rebounding. He clearly shies off contact on defense.The biggest difference is shooting. If you can shoot you have a role. If you can’t and can’t defend, bye bye.
At pick 42 a great dice roll. Defense is easier to get results on than offense to some degree - but atheleticsm and motivation is important for it. Raynard's atheletism is good for his size, but not stellar. It begins with wholesale mindset. weights, and conditioning which shouldn't be a problem. The kings have brought in Caldwell just for that although I dont know if Caldwell will make the cut. Raynard will work on his defense. He will get some playing time try-outs hopefully earlier.I agree for the most part for the vast majority of players but not so much when the position requires anchoring the defense. He would have to develop skills that he hasn't shown much of yet. As of right now, the opposing team could just put a 4 on him because he doesn't really bully smaller players very well. That 4 will abuse him on the other end because he's not particularly agile defensively and can't anchor the paint.
That's why I was saying he has more in his bag than those guys but I don't think he's going to have enough to make up for his inability to defend at the most important defensive position.
I personally am not a huge fan of player archetypes that there are very few successful versions of. Especially ones that require players around them to have very specific skills that aren't found every day. I think IT is about the only low odd archetype the Kings were successful with.
I agree that playing 5 out is a recipe for success but we're talking about guys like Chet and Turner that are legit defensive anchors to go along with their ability to spread the floor and score in creative ways. On paper Maxime has the latter but he doesn't have the former and I don't think capable NBA centers can stick around without having the former unless their offense is off the charts. I called it out during the Bagley draft and everyone disagreed with me there as well. I'm rooting for the kid but centers normally seem to be able to defend right away in college and their offensive game is a work in progress. Normally they don't all the sudden acquire the ability to defend as NBA players. That's not to say that it never happens but I'm not going to point to a player or two that has done it in the last decade and say see, our guy can do that too.
have
Lyles has definitely proved he ought to be resigned for bench play.
Lopez also can’t rebound worth a damn, to this day lolInteresting. I can get the Lopez comps because Stanford and style, but I see a lot more Porzingis at his absolute ceiling. Lopez didn't really beat guys off the dribble or off the catch like that. Plus Lopez was a lot bigger and was much better on contact.
I think some of it has to do with the number of Reps. To get really good you have the 10,000 hours rule another says 3,000 reps. With AAU teams many kids reach those hours prior to college. Starting as a senior and going to Stanford as a Math Computer Science major I am guessing this kid has a way to go.The problem is that we've gotten so good at identifying who the great talents are going to be by the age of 18 (e.g. LeBron, Wemby at #1; Kobe, Giannis late lotto) that it becomes easy to believe that nobody really slips through that freshman net. The game becomes "draft them before they're fully ready or somebody else will". And that in turn leads to the thinking "by age 22 all the good ones are gone". It's not true, but there's a reason that fallacy exists and is compelling. Even though one might specifically acknowledge it isn't true when pressed, that fallacy still has the power to draw you in when you're not guarding against it.
At pick 42 a great dice roll. Defense is easier to get results on than offense to some degree - but atheleticsm and motivation is important for it. Raynard's atheletism is good for his size, but not stellar. It begins with wholesale mindset. weights, and conditioning which shouldn't be a problem. The kings have brought in Caldwell just for that although I dont know if Caldwell will make the cut. Raynard will work on his defense. He will get some playing time try-outs hopefully earlier.
Watched him play defense and his form seemed not great. I think with the right coaching he can be a Markannan type of player. I’m not convinced he can’t guard the perimeter given his ability to change direction on offense and his lane agility times.I agree for the most part for the vast majority of players but not so much when the position requires anchoring the defense. He would have to develop skills that he hasn't shown much of yet. As of right now, the opposing team could just put a 4 on him because he doesn't really bully smaller players very well. That 4 will abuse him on the other end because he's not particularly agile defensively and can't anchor the paint.
That's why I was saying he has more in his bag than those guys but I don't think he's going to have enough to make up for his inability to defend at the most important defensive position.
I personally am not a huge fan of player archetypes that there are very few successful versions of. Especially ones that require players around them to have very specific skills that aren't found every day. I think IT is about the only low odd archetype the Kings were successful with.
I agree that playing 5 out is a recipe for success but we're talking about guys like Chet and Turner that are legit defensive anchors to go along with their ability to spread the floor and score in creative ways. On paper Maxime has the latter but he doesn't have the former and I don't think capable NBA centers can stick around without having the former unless their offense is off the charts. I called it out during the Bagley draft and everyone disagreed with me there as well. I'm rooting for the kid but centers normally seem to be able to defend right away in college and their offensive game is a work in progress. Normally they don't all the sudden acquire the ability to defend as NBA players. That's not to say that it never happens but I'm not going to point to a player or two that has done it in the last decade and say see, our guy can do that too.
That's really promising to hear!
My favorite draft adage ever that 22 and 23 year old can never get better at the nba level
Jay Bilas was saying something about that on a pod the other day. When he was playing it was the norm that 22 year olds were still going through the development process and now everyone thinks you have to be 18 to develop