Trading Down

[Bricklayer]

I really don't think the 10th makes that much of a difference. Who's going to trade down for Bibby? That's about all we have to offer

Any number of teams. You dramatically underestimate Bibby if you think a PGless team isn't going to consider it. Particularly one with the PF spot covered (Memphis, Atlanta, Boston, Minny at least). For them its two quality starters for one.

Hell, in Boston's case I could make the case that we could trade them Bibby AND Brad and they might have an outside chance to be Eastern Conference Champs next year with a solid lineup of Bibby/Wally/Pierce/Jefferson/Miller backed up by Rondo, West, Allen, Green, Gomes etc. Its a more talented crew than Cleveland just got done fielding.

For Atlanta, who is in a postion of reaching badly for Conley at #3, Bibby is the sure thing.

for Memphis, they need both a PG and a center, a 2 for 1 could patch their holes all at once.

 

[nbrans]

Any number of teams. You dramatically underestimate Bibby if you think a PGless team isn't going to consider it. Particularly one with the PF spot covered (Memphis, Atlanta, Boston, Minny at least). For them its two quality starters for one.

Hell, in Boston's case I could make the case that we could trade them Bibby AND Brad and they might have an outside chance to be Eastern Conference Champs next year with a solid lineup of Bibby/Wally/Pierce/Jefferson/Miller backed up by Rondo, West, Allen, Green, Gomes etc. Its a more talented crew than Cleveland just got done fielding.

For Atlanta, who is in a postion of reaching badly for Conley at #3, Bibby is the sure thing.

for Memphis, they need both a PG and a center, a 2 for 1 could patch their holes all at once.

Bibby/Wally/Pierce/Jefferson/Miller would be the worst defensive starting five in recent memory. I don't think they would go very far.

But I do agree with you to a degree -- people always overrate the value of lottery picks, especially when there are teams in the lottery like Boston and Minnesota, who don't really have the time to wait around for young players to develop. Shane Battier was worth a lotto pick, Elton Brand, who at the time was a borderline All-Star, fetched the #2 pick.

At the same time, I don't really think that Bibby is going to get us a #3-#5. There's too much uncertainty about his contract situation, and even at his best he's not even an All-Star caliber player. Teams would have a very tough time selling their fans on Bibby for the #5, particularly when Boston's fans were expecting a Shawn Marion-level player.

The odds are not impossible when you get to Milwaukee and Minnesota, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

[Bricklayer]

People continue to confuse the idea of trading Bibby straight up for the #3, #4, #5, which may in fact be possible, but is a longshot, and would need sweetener, wiht the idea of trading Bibby AND the #10 for the #3, #4, #5 (and matching salaries), which is far from a longshot and may even be unbalanced toward the other team, depending on who they are/where they are. A starting PG AND a lottery pick is nothing to sneeze at in particular when you already have major young players at PF and a PF is what is projected as going at your draft position. If your choice is reach on a guy who's not projected to go until #6-10 or trade down, get your #6-#10 guy anyway AND get a starting PG out of the deal, well that's not so bad now is it?

 

[nbrans]

People continue to confuse the idea of trading Bibby straight up for the #3, #4, #5, which may in fact be possible, but is a longshot, and would need sweetener, wiht the idea of trading Bibby AND the #10 for the #3, #4, #5 (and matching salaries), which is far from a longshot and may even be unbalanced toward the other team, depending on who they are/where they are. A starting PG AND a lottery pick is nothing to sneeze at in particular when you already have major young players at PF and a PF is what is projected as going at your draft position. If your choice is reach on a guy who's not projected to go until #6-10 or trade down, get your #6-#10 guy anyway AND get a starting PG out of the deal, well that's not so bad now is it?

I definitely understand this, but I think it's a lot easier to do with Artest than with Bibby. First there's the whole ETO thing, but even if you sort that out it's really tricky to match salaries and not take on a whole bunch of crap contracts in return that could kill any possibility of getting a free agent in the future. Then everything comes down to your one big draft pick, who not only has to be good, he has to be better than Bibby and who you could have gotten at the #10 combined, not to mention the potential players that you're missing out on in free agency down the line as you're paying the Stromile Swifts of the world. For someone like Al Horford I'd probably say forget all the risk, but I'm not that sold on moving up for a less than sure thing like even Yi Jianlian, as much as I'm intrigued by him. You just don't know that you're getting someone who is better than who's available at #10, so why give up Bibby for potentially a lesser player. It's a big risk for a triple-bust -- the draft pick could bust, in which case you just lost your draft pick AND Bibby AND you're stuck with bad contracts.

Basically, there are only two possibilities I see moving up with Bibby since we wouldn't have to take on crap contracts in return: Atlanta for the 3 since they could offer salary relief, and Boston with Ratliff. But still, I'm just not sure I see it. Boston is holding onto Ratliff in the hopes of making a much bigger splash than Bibby, and I think Atlanta could probably do better with the #3 than Bibby and #10. But you're right, it's not out of the realm of possibility.

The difference with Artest is that it's much easier to figure out a way of moving up while returning an expiring contract as with that Milwaukee deal I posted. I think that's a lesser-risk way of moving up, since even if the draft pick busts you aren't stuck with bad contracts.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Any number of teams. You dramatically underestimate Bibby if you think a PGless team isn't going to consider it. Particularly one with the PF spot covered (Memphis, Atlanta, Boston, Minny at least). For them its two quality starters for one.

Hell, in Boston's case I could make the case that we could trade them Bibby AND Brad and they might have an outside chance to be Eastern Conference Champs next year with a solid lineup of Bibby/Wally/Pierce/Jefferson/Miller backed up by Rondo, West, Allen, Green, Gomes etc. Its a more talented crew than Cleveland just got done fielding.

For Atlanta, who is in a postion of reaching badly for Conley at #3, Bibby is the sure thing.

for Memphis, they need both a PG and a center, a 2 for 1 could patch their holes all at once.

To be honest, I think this is just wishful thinking. Bibby's ETO is basically a no trade clause before the draft and a little longer after the draft (I heard somewhere he has until july 11th to decide on his opt out). Let's ignore that though. It's true Atlanta, Memphis, and Boston (maybe, they do like Rondo quite a bit) lack a true starting PG, but that doesn't mean they like Bibby as their PG and/or his uncertain contract situation. DE is reporting that Atlanta does like Brandan Wright so it's not like they think their pick is worthless and West likes Horford and he would be great for their team because he can fit in at C or PF depending on if they trade Gasol or not. What's so great at the no. 10 spot that they'd want? The only thing that's going to be there for sure is combo forwards. The only true C that's available mid lotto is Hawes and he reportedly has a promise from Minny and who says he even gets past Chicago? I just don't see them wanting a shoot first PG and frankly Bibby's value around the league has to be in decline. He's a very system specific player IMO.

 

[ParniValjak]

To be honest, I think this is just wishful thinking. Bibby's ETO is basically a no trade clause before the draft and a little longer after the draft (I heard somewhere he has until july 11th to decide on his opt out). Let's ignore that though. It's true Atlanta, Memphis, and Boston (maybe, they do like Rondo quite a bit) lack a true starting PG, but that doesn't mean they like Bibby as their PG and/or his uncertain contract situation. DE is reporting that Atlanta does like Brandan Wright so it's not like they think their pick is worthless and West likes Horford and he would be great for their team because he can fit in at C or PF depending on if they trade Gasol or not. What's so great at the no. 10 spot that they'd want? The only thing that's going to be there for sure is combo forwards. The only true C that's available mid lotto is Hawes and he reportedly has a promise from Minny and who says he even gets past Chicago? I just don't see them wanting a shoot first PG and frankly Bibby's value around the league has to be in decline. He's a very system specific player IMO.

Boston is high on Thornton so its not really that pessimistic as you make it out to be.

I am pretty sure they wouldn't take Thorton at 5 but he will be there at 10.

 

[Vlade4GM]

Boston is high on Thornton so its not really that pessimistic as you make it out to be.

I am pretty sure they wouldn't take Thorton at 5 but he will be there at 10.

So? That doesn't mean they're just going to give away their pick down for just anybody who has a late lotto. I just don't think Bibby is what they're looking for.

 

[Entity]

nbrans you don't have to match salaries if the other team is under the cap such as Atlanta. We could trade bibby and #10 for the #3 out right no other players involved.

 

[nbrans]

nbrans you don't have to match salaries if the other team is under the cap such as Atlanta. We could trade bibby and #10 for the #3 out right no other players involved.

Yeah, I know -- that's why I included them as one of the two teams along with Boston who I'd even consider a Bibby-moving-up deal (Boston has Ratliff's expiring). I just don't think it's very realistic.

 

[ParniValjak]

So? That doesn't mean they're just going to give away their pick down for just anybody who has a late lotto. I just don't think Bibby is what they're looking for.

Why wouldn't they look for Bibby and Thornton for Ratliff and 5?

Bibby-Pierce-Jefferson is a very good trio especially in the East. Don't under-estimate Bibby's value just because of his year under Muss. He is a better player than that. With Bibby-Wally-Pierce-Jefferson and then West, Rondo, Green et al off the bench, Boston would be a play off team next year.

 

[BMiller52]

I would trade down for #12+21 I guess, we might have a shot at getting Javaris Crittenton+DeVon Hardin which IMO would be a pretty succesful draft.

 

[OptimusRhyme]

Why wouldn't they look for Bibby and Thornton for Ratliff and 5?

Bibby-Pierce-Jefferson is a very good trio especially in the East. Don't under-estimate Bibby's value just because of his year under Muss. He is a better player than that. With Bibby-Wally-Pierce-Jefferson and then West, Rondo, Green et al off the bench, Boston would be a play off team next year.

Agreed.
Thats a scary combination in the east, and with that # 5 Pick we are guaranteed a good big, but I would probably want Bostons # 32 aswell.

 

[NevadaWolfpackStudent]

While I would rather move up I actually like the Idea of trading down if Yi, Noah, or Conely are not there at 10. I would take the 12 and 21 from the 76ers. I would consider the 12 and their other pick too, but would push for the 21st pick. I would also consider the Pistons offer of 15, 27, and their second round pick too.

Finally, I hope we dont take Jason Smith. He is extremely overrated IMO.

 

[NevadaWolfpackStudent]

I would trade down for #12+21 I guess, we might have a shot at getting Javaris Crittenton+DeVon Hardin which IMO would be a pretty succesful draft.

Woo Hoo Someone else is on the Javaris Crittenton bandwagon!