Thinking we can entice Rondo may be moot

[bajaden]

If the Kings keep Gay & Cousins and re-sign Rondo their only other avenues to improve will be the lottery pick (likely 8th or 9th unless the Kings finally get lucky in the lottery) and whatever caproom is left. Rondo turned down a 5 year $70 million extension from Boston in 2014 so I have a hard time thinking he'll take anything less than $16 - $18 million per season with the increased cap and his resurgent play this year. Even if the Kings renounce their rights to Moreland, let Dukan and Acy go and Butler, Curry and Anderson all opt out the team would still only have around $8-$10 million in caproom after resigning Rondo. That's won't be enough to get Ryan Anderson or Bazemore or anyone of real impact on the FA market. And of course they'll only have 9 players under contract - 10 when they sign their draft pick and need to fill 5 roster spots.

This is what I've been getting at with Rondo. If he's resigned the Kings won't have the ability to really improve any other areas via free agency unless they can find a team that would take, say Belinelli for a future 2nd without sending any salary back to the Kings. And I'm pretty sure Curry will opt out so if the Kings want him back that will likely eat into what little caproom is left after Rondo is signed to the tune of maybe $3 or $4 million.

If the Kings resign Rondo and don't trade Gay then there won't be caproom, there won't be many tradeable assets (Collison? Koufos? would anyone still see potential in McLemore?) and few avenues to improve the roster beyond very minor signings. The Kings would be counting on essentially a new coach being the difference between the lottery and the playoffs.



The Kings put up plenty of points with Karl's offense but Rudy Gay had a down year this season. Whether that's because he's not a good fit for the dribble drive/Karl's offense or because adding Rondo meant he had the ball in his hands less but excluding his rookie year Rudy had career lows in FGM, FGA, points and assists this season. His rebounds were a career high which is probably due in part to the pace the team played at and the number of rebounds available as Rondo had his second best rebounding year too.

I just don't think Rudy's game meshes with Rondo's all that well. Rudy isn't a catch-and-shoot, backdoor cut type wing and I think that's the best fit for what Rondo does. Add in that both guys struggle with their outside shot and that both are uh, less than intense on the defensive end and I don't like the fit. I also don't like that Rudy's efficiency plummets when he is asked to be the primary scorer. That's a poor quality to have in the guy that is your #2 option on offense.

I'm in agreement with you, I would rather move on from Rondo and Gay. And McLemore as well. You might be able to squeeze a low first round pick out of McLemore. For instance, the Celtics, as it stands right now, pre-lottery, have the 4th, 16th, 23rd, 31st, 35th, 49th, 52nd, and 58th picks in the coming draft. Obviously they can't use all those picks, unless they want to stash a bunch of international players. So maybe, just maybe, you might get a low first and a low 2nd for McLemore. With the cap going up, a lot more teams will be able to absorb salary, so maybe you wouldn't have to get equal financial value in return for Gay, but still get a young talented player, while also gaining some capspace.

One plus that's come out of starting Collison and giving Curry more minutes, is that neither turn the ball over very much. Collison is averaging 1.8 turnovers per game for the year, and Curry in his last ten games where he's been averaging over 25 minutes a game is averaging 1.3 turnovers per game. One has to wonder what the outcome would have been had Curry gotten all the minutes that Belinelli got this year. I suspect we would have won a few more games along the way.

 

[funkykingston]

I'm in agreement with you, I would rather move on from Rondo and Gay. And McLemore as well. You might be able to squeeze a low first round pick out of McLemore. For instance, the Celtics, as it stands right now, pre-lottery, have the 4th, 16th, 23rd, 31st, 35th, 49th, 52nd, and 58th picks in the coming draft. Obviously they can't use all those picks, unless they want to stash a bunch of international players. So maybe, just maybe, you might get a low first and a low 2nd for McLemore. With the cap going up, a lot more teams will be able to absorb salary, so maybe you wouldn't have to get equal financial value in return for Gay, but still get a young talented player, while also gaining some capspace.

The two things that are going to hurt the Kings in trying to trade McLemore (or Collison should they pursue that) for a pick is that (1) he is a free agent at the end of next season and with the increased cap even guys like Ben will likely be looking for (and often getting) a raise in free agency and (2) the exploding cap is going to mean that contributing players on low cost rookie deals (and thus the picks used to attain them) are going to increase significantly in value. Would you rather have McLemore and his known and unimpressive productivity for one season and then have to pony up $5 million a year to keep him or would you gamble that one of those low 2nd rounders will net you a guy who can give a similar level of productivity for $1 million or so a year for two to three years?

If I'm Danny Ainge I'd be very content to use all those picks with some of them used on international players that aren't expected to come over any time soon.

One plus that's come out of starting Collison and giving Curry more minutes, is that neither turn the ball over very much. Collison is averaging 1.8 turnovers per game for the year, and Curry in his last ten games where he's been averaging over 25 minutes a game is averaging 1.3 turnovers per game. One has to wonder what the outcome would have been had Curry gotten all the minutes that Belinelli got this year. I suspect we would have won a few more games along the way.

The downside is that it has showcased Curry at the end of the year which means other teams have seen that he can be a contributor and almost certainly convinced Seth to opt out of his current deal to get a bigger one. And he's earned it. I hope it's from the Kings and is still a reasonable contract.

 

[The_Jamal]

The two things that are going to hurt the Kings in trying to trade McLemore (or Collison should they pursue that) for a pick is that (1) he is a free agent at the end of next season and with the increased cap even guys like Ben will likely be looking for (and often getting) a raise in free agency and (2) the exploding cap is going to mean that contributing players on low cost rookie deals (and thus the picks used to attain them) are going to increase significantly in value. Would you rather have McLemore and his known and unimpressive productivity for one season and then have to pony up $5 million a year to keep him or would you gamble that one of those low 2nd rounders will net you a guy who can give a similar level of productivity for $1 million or so a year for two to three years?

If I'm Danny Ainge I'd be very content to use all those picks with some of them used on international players that aren't expected to come over any time soon.



The downside is that it has showcased Curry at the end of the year which means other teams have seen that he can be a contributor and almost certainly convinced Seth to opt out of his current deal to get a bigger one. And he's earned it. I hope it's from the Kings and is still a reasonable contract.

I'm not so sure. I think Curry is very much where Whiteside was last season heading into this year. Teams were weary if he was just a flash in the pan or actually the real thing. Except that Whiteside is a 7'0 defensive beast that teams would have gambled on for 10+mil a year had he been a FA. Curry is an undersized combo guard that doesn't really have a position. He needs to show it he can do it for a full season, and not just in March/April where a lot of guys can put up big numbers.

Whiteside came back, did basically the same thing, and is now in line for a max deal. If Curry makes the rotation, has a great year, he sets himself up for a 6-7mil/year long-term deal after next season. If he leaves, he won't get the same opportunity and is probably looking at a 2yr deal for 3-3.5 mil a year. If that.

 

[funkykingston]

I'm not so sure. I think Curry is very much where Whiteside was last season heading into this year. Teams were weary if he was just a flash in the pan or actually the real thing. Except that Whiteside is a 7'0 defensive beast that teams would have gambled on for 10+mil a year had he been a FA. Curry is an undersized combo guard that doesn't really have a position. He needs to show it he can do it for a full season, and not just in March/April where a lot of guys can put up big numbers.

Whiteside came back, did basically the same thing, and is now in line for a max deal. If Curry makes the rotation, has a great year, he sets himself up for a 6-7mil/year long-term deal after next season. If he leaves, he won't get the same opportunity and is probably looking at a 2yr deal for 3-3.5 mil a year. If that.

I agree for the most part. My only point is that now Curry will most likely opt out which means that (1) he will cost more than the $1 million or so he was slated to earn and (2) the Kings are guaranteed to have him back next season.

 

[kingsboi]

wow Ben never passes in the open court, does he?

 

[kingsboi]

Trill looks completely lost out there, he isn't guarding anybody. Out of position and not even underneath to rebound. Rookie problems.