The trading of Domantas Sabonis.

[hrdboild]

The extent to which you’ve become so committed to being mad at people for not being as down on the Kings as you is really something to behold.
No one is calling Zach LaVine the second coming here aside from people saying that that’s what people they don’t agree with are saying that he is. There are people who aren’t trying to relitigate a trade that already happened but rather looking at what the team can do to try and build something competitive though.

I'm not mad at people. I just don't like seeing all of the false information being passed around in order to steer the narrative in a particular direction. I was trying to think of a better comparison for Zach LaVine but a lot of the guys I was going to use as benchmarks have actually outperformed him significantly. Harrison Barnes, for instance, who was treated as addition by subtraction last summer has had a substantially better career according to WS and WS/48 than Zach LaVine. It's not the end all be all of player evaluation, but it is a useful shorthand. I've been doing this a long time and I've seen too much to leave this up to my own "eye test", much less anyone else's.

 

[SacTownKid]

I'm not mad at people. I just don't like seeing all of the false information being passed around in order to steer the narrative in a particular direction. I was trying to think of a better comparison for Zach LaVine but a lot of the guys I was going to use as benchmarks have actually outperformed him significantly. Harrison Barnes, for instance, who was treated as addition by subtraction last summer has had a substantially better career according to WS and WS/48 than Zach LaVine. It's not the end all be all of player evaluation, but it is a useful shorthand. I've been doing this a long time and I've seen too much to leave this up to my own "eye test", much less anyone else's.

You know the best comp for Zach if you're going by wins shares? De'Aaron Fox. Zach's win shares for his career have lined right up with Fox. In almost every way they've been right in line with one another for their entire career. Hence why this was likely a somewhat lateral move.

 

[hrdboild]

I'm really finding it difficult to square the careers of a low-usage rotation PF and a high-usage starting SG who is asked to be a primary scorer and create his own shot. Zach has been asked to take twice as many shots per game, has scored two and a half times as many points per game, and attempted three times as many free throws per game over his career than Diaw did. They just aren't remotely the same player and they don't play remotely the same role.

Yeah but what's his OBS and BABIP?

Zach is, no doubt, a flawed player. But he fills a role and as long as we can utilize him within that role. I'm not saying that in a vacuum you should go out and build a team around Zach. We already have the guy to build a team around anyways, that's Domas. I'm not saying Zach isn't overpaid. He is, but obviously Vivek/Monte wanted to get some sort of value out of the flaming Fox wreckage rather than push the reset button - and that's fair since we already have the guy we want to build around and he's under contract for three more years. So they took what they could get as a #2, who was available precisely because he's overpaid and inefficient. (Bright side note - Zach's TS% is higher during his Sacramento stint than during any other year in his career.)

Are we "stuck" with him? Yep, probably. Can we make things work? I think we've seen the start of it. We clearly need to surround the Domas/Zach duo with plus-plus defensive players who can be complementary scorers and we need a distributor in the backcourt. DDR and Monk don't really fit that bill. They're poor defenders and high-usage players, and there's only one ball and only 48 minutes to go around. But fortunately, Keon and Keegan do fit that bill, and Devin is starting to look like he may as well. Jake is another piece in that mold, if we can keep him. We've got the pieces to make this work, what we need to do is turn the misfits into players that fit Domas/Zach better. In the case of DDR, that probably means a trade. Fortunately he's on a reasonable deal and is better than an expiring with the team option in year 3, so it shouldn't be impossible to find another home for him. In the case of Monk, he's also on a reasonable deal, and - if he can be convinced of it - is better suited for the sparkplug role off the bench anyway. If he won't accept that, he too is movable. We've got a path forward with Zach, we just need to take it.

My argument is and has been that any future plan which is built around the theory that Zach LaVine is a guy we want playing a significant role for us is flawed and unlikely to work. I guess if it's 9 plus defenders and Zach than you've maybe got a chance but when you look at his contributions to winning over the course of his career, I don't see why we should make any effort to build a team around him at all.

 

[hrdboild]

You know the best comp for Zach if you're going by wins shares? De'Aaron Fox. Zach's win shares for his career have lined right up with Fox. In almost every way they've been right in line with one another for their entire career. Hence why this was likely a somewhat lateral move.

LaVine has played 11 seasons and Fox has played 8. We'll see if that's still true in 3 years.

 

[sactowndog]

Chicago’s pick wasn’t unprotected and if LaVine is as terrible as you insist, they’d be keeping it this year.
plus the range where that Bulls pick would’ve conveyed is roughly where our pick is conveying this season and is in relative no man’s land. Especially for someone looking for forwards as you are so obsessed with the Kings doing.

a Spurs/Kings two team deal would probably end up having the Kings taking on Devin Vassell, who’s on the first year of a five-year nine figure contract that makes Lavine’s “albatross” contract look like Jonas’s sweetheart descending MLE deal.

Yeah hard to say either way if we would have kept Chicago’s pick. And my dislike of the LaVine trade is only partially impacted by he is not a winning player.

A equal or maybe bigger part is
1) the cap hit and financial inflexibility it puts on the organization
2) the blocking of Keon moving in the starting 2 guard role and the increased possibility we lose him in free agency as a result.

Monte builds teams like he is playing fantasy basketball.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

Yeah but what's his OBS and BABIP?

I see my error here. Obviously if we look at very complicated advanced statistics like points per game we can end up drawing unnecessarily fine distinctions. If we really distill it down to the essence:

Boris Diaw - tall man bounce ball
Zach LaVine - tall man bounce ball

We can see that they are basically the same player.

My argument is and has been that any future plan which is built around the theory that Zach LaVine is a guy we want playing a significant role for us is flawed and unlikely to work. I guess if it's 9 plus defenders and Zach than you've maybe got a chance but when you look at his contributions to winning over the course of his career, I don't see why we should make any effort to build a team around him at all.

The first reason we should make an effort to build a team around him (as a #2, not a #1, that's Domas) is that he's almost certainly going to be on our team for the next two years, so we don't have a lot of choice in the matter. The second reason is that he's a heck of a scorer, and when he goes off, he singlehandedly wins games.

I don't think you need 9 defenders around Zach to make it work, but sure, you need to have your complementary players be defensively focused, for sure. Our biggest problem this year is that we're trying to give big minutes to each of three high-usage shooting guards, none of whom play a lick of defense, and none of who is really either a PG or a full-sized wing. The hope was to consistently blow people out, and perhaps if we were playing with two balls instead of one, that might have worked. But there's not enough ball to go around and we need to adjust. Basically, that means trading DeRozan, and maybe Monk, to bring in some more defense on lower usage. Fortunately, we already are developing some of our own defenders, so we're not completely barren there.

Maybe you're right. Maybe it's just completely hopeless. If so, we're stuck in two more years of 36-40 wins before his contract is up, so maybe instead we should try to make some lemonade here.

 

[hrdboild]

I see my error here. Obviously if we look at very complicated advanced statistics like points per game we can end up drawing unnecessarily fine distinctions. If we really distill it down to the essence:

Boris Diaw - tall man bounce ball
Zach LaVine - tall man bounce ball

We can see that they are basically the same player.

The first reason we should make an effort to build a team around him (as a #2, not a #1, that's Domas) is that he's almost certainly going to be on our team for the next two years, so we don't have a lot of choice in the matter. The second reason is that he's a heck of a scorer, and when he goes off, he singlehandedly wins games.

I don't think you need 9 defenders around Zach to make it work, but sure, you need to have your complementary players be defensively focused, for sure. Our biggest problem this year is that we're trying to give big minutes to each of three high-usage shooting guards, none of whom play a lick of defense, and none of who is really either a PG or a full-sized wing. The hope was to consistently blow people out, and perhaps if we were playing with two balls instead of one, that might have worked. But there's not enough ball to go around and we need to adjust. Basically, that means trading DeRozan, and maybe Monk, to bring in some more defense on lower usage. Fortunately, we already are developing some of our own defenders, so we're not completely barren there.

Maybe you're right. Maybe it's just completely hopeless. If so, we're stuck in two more years of 36-40 wins before his contract is up, so maybe instead we should try to make some lemonade here.

See I knew you would get my point if I phrased it in a slightly obtuse way.

I don't think our situation is at all hopeless. If we trade Domas, LaVine, Monk, and DeRozan on draft day and get at least one lottery pick in the aggregate to show for it I think we should reasonably expect this team to be better within 3 years than where they are now. There are 10 or so players that we could draft this year that I would slot directly into the starting lineup and if you put Keon, Keegan, and Devin there too we're not starting over from scratch.

Yes it will be painful for a lot of people and I would have liked to see Sabonis get a chance to be the face of the franchise but our front office already went ruthless with the Mike Brown firing and the Fox trade so let's keep that same energy at this point. My frustration stems almost entirely from reading the tea leaves and expecting to see more foot dragging and half measures instead.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

I don't see the equivalency. We were bad with Fox this year too, so even if we kept him, a blow up could easily have happened in that timeline where we kept him.

There was like 5 minutes before Fox quit on us that we were good with Fox post-Brown.

I wish we could have seen how that played out.

 

[SacTownKid]

LaVine has played 11 seasons and Fox has played 8. We'll see if that's still true in 3 years.

Obviously once one ends up on legitimately good team the numbers might change. Both have had similar situational career paths on mediocre teams partly yes, because they might not quite be elite but also largely because they've spent the majority of their time on losing teams.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

There was like 5 minutes before Fox quit on us that we were good with Fox post-Brown.

I wish we could have seen how that played out.

I think they would have won more games had they only added Laravia and JV for this season, considering that they had a good rhythm going with Monk and Keon starting (they were 7-0, if I recall). Monk looked good as a lead guard with someone he fits with in Keon.

but as it stands now, they have to keep a positive outlook of Lavine as a guy to build around, because there is likely no other option. Personally I would have rather built with Monk, Murray, Keon, and Carter with nobody in their way. Unfortunately the owner is a push button kind of guy who likely makes player decisions, even though he pretends not to.... and has no understanding or commitment to developing and building a team.

I don't see a Lavine - Sabonis led team ever being a top 4 seed, let alone a contender.....and can't imagine any other front office in the league does either

 

[hgut]

I think they would have won more games had they only added Laravia and JV for this season, considering that they had a good rhythm going with Monk and Keon starting (they were 7-0, if I recall). Monk looked good as a lead guard with someone he fits with in Keon.

but as it stands now, they have to keep a positive outlook of Lavine as a guy to build around, because there is likely no other option. Personally I would have rather built with Monk, Murray, Keon, and Carter with nobody in their way. Unfortunately the owner is a push button kind of guy who likely makes player decisions, even though he pretends not to.... and has no understanding or commitment to developing and building a team.

I don't see a Lavine - Sabonis led team ever being a top 4 seed, let alone a contender.....and can't imagine any other front office in the league does either

Patience. If at some point Devin Carter consolidates as our starting PG, everything would change.

We still have a lot of talent — we just need to find the right tuning.

 

[Hoovtrain]

Same Ol’ playoff Sabonis

 

[Hoovtrain]

100% onboard . time ti clean house

 

[upinsmoke]

Well here we are. The time is now to start working on a trade to send the big man out. He's a good player and likely our best asset so a trade centered around picks and or prospects is ideal.

 

[ShastaKingsFan]

Well here we are. The time is now to start working on a trade to send the big man out. He's a good player and likely our best asset so a trade centered around picks and or prospects is ideal.

It didn't work out and they need to acknowledge that and move forward with the change. It should be better for both parties

 

[serbiangoat]

I wonder if Spurs would give us Castle/filler for Sabonis

 

[Joshyjosh31]

I wonder if Spurs would give us Castle/filler for Sabonis

Bruh we couldn’t get castle for Fox

 

[Joshyjosh31]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912884944856047861

 

[pdxKingsFan]

That makes zero sense. Especially with the Blazers up there.

 

[Joshyjosh31]

That makes zero sense. Especially with the Blazers up there.

That’s what I thought a week ago on realgm when there was a lot of Sabonis to Portland talk

 

[pdxKingsFan]

That’s what I thought a week ago on realgm when there was a lot of Sabonis to Portland talk

I feel like they have their bigs set up so this would be a trade for Jerami Grant maybe? Not sure who else Portland would be willing to part with and that would mean Sabonis would be a PF which while many think he's better suited to that role I am not sold.

We'd be a big loser in any trade with them I think. At least I'd have a team in my backyard to root for while the Kings pick in the lotto for the next 5 years.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912931040940990618

welp, he gone.

 

[Tetsujin]

Domas on the hornets would be fun. That team would be capable of dropping 200 points a night while also giving up 250 lol.

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912931040940990618

welp, he gone.

He’s only gone once his wife makes a bunch of weird passive aggressive tweets and then retweets a bunch of weird LA fire conspiracy tweets and then unretweets them because I think she forgot she wasn’t using her burner.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

He’s only gone once his wife makes a bunch of weird passive aggressive tweets and then retweets a bunch of weird LA fire conspiracy tweets and then unretweets them because I think she forgot she wasn’t using her burner.

I think his wife's name begins with an A.

That's the best part about the Sabonis family. I know Arvydas and I know Domas. And I know he named a kid 11, which is stupid, but cute.

 

[Tetsujin]

I think his wife's name begins with an A.

That's the best part about the Sabonis family. I know Arvydas and I know Domas. And I know he named a kid 11, which is stupid, but cute.

He also started his own winery in Napa so I don’t really question him wanting to be here lmao

meanwhile other guy and his wife were building a new huge mansion in Texas over the last year or so lol

 

[Joshyjosh31]

Pretty sure Toronto would trade there pick this year for him but I doubt that idiot vevik lets us tank and rebuild

 

[pdxKingsFan]

He also started his own winery in Napa so I don’t really question him wanting to be here lmao

meanwhile other guy and his wife were building a new huge mansion in Texas over the last year or so lol

He's the last guy I want to trade but the one player we'd put on the block (and maybe Monk) who deserves to go to the situation they want.

 

[Tetsujin]

He's the last guy I want to trade but the one player we'd put on the block (and maybe Monk) who deserves to go to the situation they want.

He and Deebo both deserve to go to the situation they want to go to

 

[Tetsujin]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1912931520341487844