The Stubborn Refusal to Address Defense in the Sacto Era

[The_Jamal]

Douglas? Played 13 MPG last season and proceeded to regress back to his end of the bench player averages?
Aldrich? Played 7 MPG and only 37 games for a NYK team that was running out BARGS most of the year.
Mbah a Moute? After proceeding to be hurt with us, he went to Minny, got hurt again, and found himself being a 13 MPG player that was hardly used for a Minny team.
Robin Lopez i agree with 100%. Remains the only move i vastly disagreed with that this FO has made thus far. Even then, I question his fit with Cousins. Lopez is a pure C. I'm not so sure why everyone is so eager for Cuz to guard PF's, but he just figured out how to defend C's without getting in foul trouble. And with 75% of PF's prefering to play away from the hoop these days, all your doing is putting Cuz in worse position for him to defensive rebound; one of his best qualities as a player.

Tyreke? Overpriced, has been hurt for 10+ games in 4 of his 5 seasons, and still not a quality defensive player. He's better than what's on the roster, but he's yet to tap into his potential on that end. Or the offensive end. Or as a player in general.

The grass isn't always greener folks.

 

[William Blake]

So time for me to "crowdsource" some numbers for the ole front office too.
Otherwise, I am sure there is a human a calculator around here who would join in identifying some correlation. And ye the beat goes on. Best defense is a good offense.

I looked for the correlations between W/L %, pace, offensive rating and defensive rating. The last three being relative to the league that year. There is a strong correlation between defensive rating and W/L%, but the correlation with offensive rating is slightly higher (-.749 to .814).
Anyway simple correlation analysis isn't the right tool to find these kind answers for an historically losing team like the Kings*. The mean record is well below .500, which means that every year the team crawled from sheer badness to quasi mediocrity still counts as an improvement.

The point here, like always, is that you have to be very good on both ends of the floor to be relevant. There comes a point in which a big improvement for your defense costs less than a minor improvement for your already talented offense.

*or, to a lesser degree, any other team, for a variety of reasons

 

[ParniValjak]

Off course you would Josh Smith brings playmaking as well as defence, Sanders/Chandler possess zero playmaking, Smith is on the same level of playmaking as Cousins imo (he obviously does not get doubled like Cuz). Smith has a position that's PF he's being played out of position in Detroit and cause of it sucked. Chandler also seems to be in massive decline and Larry is a huge risk (that I would take).

Comprehension obviously not a strong point! I said all issues aside and I said types and not necesarily those players. But while we are at it, in prime Chanlder is a defensive anchor and has been one of the best in the league. Larry Sanders of two seasons ago is a defensive anchor. Smith is undersized and would get brutilised in the west at PF by the likes of long and powerful PFs. Zebo would back him down all the time. The likes of Gasol, Dirk, Aldridge and even Love would shoot over him all day long.


Length and athleticism. Smith has the athleticism but not true length for the position. Besides with shot hungy players already on the team, the last type of player we need is one more interested in scoring than defending.

 

[Glenn]

If they bring in a defensive 4 and PG, what will you think then?

Happiness.

 

[Glenn]

Comprehension obviously not a strong point! I said all issues aside and I said types and not necesarily those players. But while we are at it, in prime Chanlder is a defensive anchor and has been one of the best in the league. Larry Sanders of two seasons ago is a defensive anchor. Smith is undersized and would get brutilised in the west at PF by the likes of long and powerful PFs. Zebo would back him down all the time. The likes of Gasol, Dirk, Aldridge and even Love would shoot over him all day long.


Length and athleticism. Smith has the athleticism but not true length for the position. Besides with shot hungy players already on the team, the last type of player we need is one more interested in scoring than defending.

In a sane world, the draft of Nik would spell the end of IT as a starting PG.

 

[ParniValjak]

In a sane world, the draft of Nik would spell the end of IT as a starting PG.

Sure but Nik still needs shots and if you keep IT as a 6th man so does he!

Stauskas is a skilled kid who does more than shooting but his shooting is still his best asset. If he reaches his potential, he is still 17-20ppg player and he needs shots to get there.

Its precisely why I am intrigued by Shaun Livingston. He is one guy that could gel together the backcourt pieces because of his versatility, defence and ability to impact games without taking a ton of shots

 

[Albatros]

I only saw Livingston in the playoffs, a rumoured target, one thing he does do is get out of the way, which is a huge huge need at PG on this team, especially now with Nik.

 

[Glenn]

Sure but Nik still needs shots and if you keep IT as a 6th man so does he!

Stauskas is a skilled kid who does more than shooting but his shooting is still his best asset. If he reaches his potential, he is still 17-20ppg player and he needs shots to get there.

Its precisely why I am intrigued by Shaun Livingston. He is one guy that could gel together the backcourt pieces because of his versatility, defence and ability to impact games without taking a ton of shots

Yes, this would be perfect. I can't argue that. I am thinking keeping IT as a 6th man is a long shot to make happen AND stay under the luxury tax.

 

[Bricklayer]

I only saw Livingston in the playoffs, a rumoured target, one thing he does do is get out of the way, which is a huge huge need at PG on this team, especially now with Nik.

One thing he doesn't do at all is shoot the three. Which is an interesting thing fro somebody we claim to be interested in.

 

[Prog]

One thing he doesn't do at all is shoot the three.

Being a career 20% shooter from that range, it's probably a good thing he doesn't shoot the three more often. But with Gay and Stauskas it's probably less of an issue, given the other great attributes that he brings.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

I looked for the correlations between W/L %, pace, offensive rating and defensive rating. The last three being relative to the league that year. There is a strong correlation between defensive rating and W/L%, but the correlation with offensive rating is slightly higher (-.749 to .814).

Interesting. I would have expected the correlations to be about similar, yet the offensive one is clearly higher. I don't know quite how to interpret that. How many years of data did you use?

 

[Kingster]

Asked whether he anticipates making additional moves via trades or free-agent signings, still seeking a rim protector and a facilitating point guard, D’Alessandro nodded forcefully.

“We have to make moves, absolutely. This is just one piece. We can’t come back with the same team (as last year). We just can’t.”

http://www.sacbee.com/2014/06/28/6520183/ailene-voisin-stauskas-all-around.html#storylink=cpy

there is hope. I looking forward to the trade season opening up. make us believe in you PDA

I'm pretty sure we won't have the same team as last year. But a better team? I'm not so sure on that. I'm skeptical of a desperate GM making good moves. The good GMs of other teams prey on the desperation of others.

 

[William Blake]

Interesting. I would have expected the correlations to be about similar, yet the offensive one is clearly higher. I don't know quite how to interpret that. How many years of data did you use?

Sacramento era only. I also looked at a couple of different teams for the same years and sometimes the results are flipped, i.e. defensive rating is slightly higher.
In addition I just widened the sample to all the seasons and checked correlations again for the Kings and the Lakers, the differencies are even higher.

I think that it's due to the fact that ortg and drtg offset each other (or go together less than proportionally maybe) in some occasions. If a team repeatedely had problems in improving defense without sacrificing offense then you should expect a lower coefficient for drtg.

 

[peacelate]

It's not like the FO didn't want Tyreke. He just wasn't in their price range.

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

We should've drafted payton and traded for John Henson.

 

[pshn80]

If they bring in a defensive 4 and PG, what will you think then?

You didn't ask me but in your sentence above you didn't say 'defensive' PG.

 

[bajaden]

Vivek is a new owner, but he's our owner. He's willing to spend money and I do not think he's a stupid man. If he suffers a few growing pains in the next season or two, I can live with it. Maybe with age comes more patience?

Think of the irony of your last sentence!

 

[bajaden]

We should've drafted payton and traded for John Henson.

John Henson will never be what you think he's going to be. He has no lower core, and never will. All his height is below the waist, and he's walking around on stilts. Did you see what Cousins did to him last year when he tried to guard Cousins. The best he''ll ever be is a help or weakside shotblocker. He just doesn't have the core strength to defend bigs in isolation.

 

[ESP47]

One bright spot here is that even with the mass exodus of guys that could play defense, we still improved from 29th to 23rd with Malone as head coach. That's with two revolving doors at the guard spots playing most of the minutes. Also Malone's first year is 13th out of 29 as far as DRTG in the Sacramento area goes..so he's already starting out ahead of his forefathers not named Adelman.

I feel like the FO is trying to gather offensive players with the expectation that Malone can turn them into serviceable defensive players regardless of what their past defensive output has been. It probably wont work but I guess I can see why they'd be trying that.

 

[CurseOfTheSalmons]

John Henson will never be what you think he's going to be. He has no lower core, and never will. All his height is below the waist, and he's walking around on stilts. Did you see what Cousins did to him last year when he tried to guard Cousins. The best he''ll ever be is a help or weakside shotblocker. He just doesn't have the core strength to defend bigs in isolation.

and even so, he contributes more than landry. sign me up.

 

[swisshh]

One bright spot here is that even with the mass exodus of guys that could play defense, we still improved from 29th to 23rd with Malone as head coach. That's with two revolving doors at the guard spots playing most of the minutes. Also Malone's first year is 13th out of 29 as far as DRTG in the Sacramento area goes..so he's already starting out ahead of his forefathers not named Adelman.

I feel like the FO is trying to gather offensive players with the expectation that Malone can turn them into serviceable defensive players regardless of what their past defensive output has been. It probably wont work but I guess I can see why they'd be trying that.

I believe you are right. It's my feeling that most of the smart fans see that as an ultimately flawed plan.

After all these years, I just wish and hope for a management group that tries to build a balanced team through sensible decisions.

 

[Bricklayer]

I feel like the FO is trying to gather offensive players with the expectation that Malone can turn them into serviceable defensive players regardless of what their past defensive output has been. It probably wont work but I guess I can see why they'd be trying that.

Of I don't doubt that at all.

Its the same plan 29 years of successor front offices have had. And 21 of those 29 years have been losers.

 

[Hoovtrain]

^Lopez would have been really nice to have

Ugh. Don't remind me. So frustrating.

 

[Hoovtrain]

Asked whether he anticipates making additional moves via trades or free-agent signings, still seeking a rim protector and a facilitating point guard, D’Alessandro nodded forcefully.

“We have to make moves, absolutely. This is just one piece. We can’t come back with the same team (as last year). We just can’t.”

http://www.sacbee.com/2014/06/28/6520183/ailene-voisin-stauskas-all-around.html#storylink=cpy

there is hope. I looking forward to the trade season opening up. make us believe in you PDA

He needs to just do it and stop talking about it

 

[Albatros]

You can't "just do it" if the other side isn't listening.

Remember who were trying to give away. Travis outlaw. JT. D-will. Quincy.

 

[Tetsujin]

You can't "just do it" if the other side isn't listening.

Remember who were trying to give away. Travis outlaw. JT. D-will. Quincy.

D-Will's 5 million dollar expiring contract actually is one of our better assets

 

[Albatros]

Might well be, but I get the impression people are expecting blockbuster trades.

 

[KingMilz]

One thing he doesn't do at all is shoot the three. Which is an interesting thing fro somebody we claim to be interested in.

His mid range is fairly money in particular his turnaround fadeaway and at one point he was the most effective post up player in the NBA if I remember correctly, if Cousins is out of the game not a bad option to put in the post for a different look. Also not a bad option if Cousins is playing high post for Cuz to throw the ball to Livingston. If you can't shoot 3's as long as you can keep the offense honest imo it's enough when you do other things.

 

[beb0p]

I think it's time to acknowledge that defensive players are not easy to get. For wing defenders to be useful, they need to be able to knock down the open threes - the Bowen/Thebo/Christie/ model. Problem is, those guys are almost always on reasonable contracts, great in the locker room, and model team players; so teams have no reason to trade them. When they become FAs, they almost always sign with contending teams. Good perimeter defenders who can't shoot (James Johnson, Donte Greene, Jamario Moon, etc) ultimately almost always play their way to the bench, it's simply very difficult to overcome their offensive deficiencies. So yes, for wing defenders to be useful, they need to be able to shoot; and those guys are hard to get.

Regarding shot-blockers, they are even harder to get than good wing defenders, and we have already talked about that at length. Yes, the Kings could have had Lopez or Whithey, but let's remember that Lopez was a mediocre player at the time of the trade; yes Lopez blew up in Portland but that was after the fact. Whithey was a sleeper passed over by a GM who was new to the team and didn't have sufficient time to prepare for the draft.... so for now I'm willing to give our GM a pass on both of those players.

Our team also seems to be set on Cousins at the center, so I think his future frontcourt partner is going to be a mobile PF rather than a big slow C. We'll see.

.

 

[hrdboild]

Our team also seems to be set on Cousins at the center, so I think his future frontcourt partner is going to be a mobile PF rather than a big slow C. We'll see.

Cousins himself disagrees with you:

“I love playing with Jason Thompson, don’t get me wrong, but I believe I would play better if I had a shot-blocking big. I’m not the greatest shot blocker and I can move to the four and play my natural position. I can balance it out either way.”