Speculation on the future, and past comparisons:

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#1
Long title! Don't really care for long titles, but what the hey, I had to describe the content of the post. There has been a lot of speculation on how good, or bad the Kings will be this year, and how that might affect Cousins future with the team. Of course I don't have a crystal ball, so what I write here, other than past facts, is pure speculation. On paper, the Kings look average to below average, depending on who is doing the looking. So I thought I take a look back and see if I could find another team that looked similar, and exceeded expectations.

The best example I could find was the 1974/75 Warriors. A team that wasn't expected to do much that year. A team that had three rookies in Jamaal Wilkes, Phil Smith, and Frank Kendrick. Of course both Wilkes and Smithe went on to become very good players. It was a team that had one super star in Rick Barry, who was 30 years old at the time and in his 9th season. They also had another aging star in Jeff Mullins who was 32 years old, and in his 11th season. Mullins best days were behind him.

The rest of the team was made up of so called rotational players. A mixture of youth and age. Players like Butch Beard, 27 yrs old and in his 5th season. Clifford Ray, 26 yr's old and in his 4th season. Charlie Johnson, or CJ as he was called, 25 yr's old and in his 3rd season. Derrek Dickey, 23 yr's old, and in his 2nd season. George Johnson, a backup center, 26 yr's old and in his 3rd season. Bill Bridges, 35 yr's old, and in his 13th season. And Charles Dudley, 24 yr's old, and in his 2nd season.

I think we can all agree that on paper, that's not a team one would expect to make the playoffs, much less win a championship. If you take a hard look at the Kings right now, they have a similar look. We have one superstar, another player in Gay, that's a borderline star, and the rest of the crew are rotational players. I grant you that what the Warriors did that year was nothing less than a miracle. They ended the regular season with a 48 and 34 record and made the playoffs.

They did it with almost everyone on the team contributing. Yeah, Barry averaged 30 ppg along with 5.7 rpg, and 6.2 apg. Wilkes surprised some people averaging 14.2 ppg as a rookie. But everybody else contributed 10 points here and 7 points there. It was truly a team effort. They scraped and clawed through every game with Clifford Ray in the middle blocking shots, and grabbing boards. They first faced Seattle in the playoffs, and it took them 6 games to win the series.

Next up was the Chicago Bulls, and it was nip and tuck with the Warriors pulling it out in the 7th game to go on and meet the Washington Bullets. The Bullets were the best team in basketball that year ending the season with a 60 and 22 record. They had the likes of Elvin Hayes, Phil Chenier, Mike Riordan, Wes Unseld, Kevin Porter, Truck Robinson, and Nick Weatherspoon on that team. This was expected to be a four game slaughter. And it was, but not the way everyone expected. The Warriors beat them four games straight.

The point of all this, is yes, hope springs eternal and miracles do happen. We can sit here and speculate about what the outcome of the season will be, but in fact, we don't know. While past history needs to be taken into account, it's not a reliable predictor of the future. With a different coach and surrounded by different players with a different mentality and in a different culture could be all that Cousins needs to lead this team to victory. I realize that the odds of that happening are slim. But as proven by the 1974 Warriors, if can happen.

Frankly, I'd be happy with something a little less, like making the playoffs, and that doesn't seem as much of a stretch to me. And of course if that happens, then keeping Cousins becomes easier. I think Cousins loves Sacramento and wants to build his legacy here. All he needs is a glimmer of hope for the future and I think that's possible.
 

kingsboi

Hall of Famer
#2
It's perfectly fine to have hope as a fan, that's about all you can do. I choose to look at it from a different perspective however, this team's ceiling isn't very high IMO, I accept that. Vlade did what he could and it seems he stock piled on youth in the NBA draft, which I am completely fine with, even if they don't pan out. The Kings were and still are lacking from a talent perspective, four rookies on the roster, all unknowns...besides watching Boogie, will be the primary reason I watch the Kings this season. With that said, making the playoffs with this roster isn't out of the question, Collison comes back from his suspension, maybe Rudy, DC and Boogie click and play well together or maybe they play average and have some great nights, who knows. It's been so long since we all have tasted winning from our beloved Kings so at this point I am numb to the fact that if they lose more than they win, it's just another season in Kings land and if it comes to that, play the rookies extended minutes and call the season a wash and get ready to move forward without Boogie in purple & white.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
#3
It's perfectly fine to have hope as a fan, that's about all you can do. I choose to look at it from a different perspective however, this team's ceiling isn't very high IMO, I accept that. Vlade did what he could and it seems he stock piled on youth in the NBA draft, which I am completely fine with, even if they don't pan out. The Kings were and still are lacking from a talent perspective, four rookies on the roster, all unknowns...besides watching Boogie, will be the primary reason I watch the Kings this season. With that said, making the playoffs with this roster isn't out of the question, Collison comes back from his suspension, maybe Rudy, DC and Boogie click and play well together or maybe they play average and have some great nights, who knows. It's been so long since we all have tasted winning from our beloved Kings so at this point I am numb to the fact that if they lose more than they win, it's just another season in Kings land and if it comes to that, play the rookies extended minutes and call the season a wash and get ready to move forward without Boogie in purple & white.
I agree with you on our current talent level, at least as we perceive it right now. We may look at it differently 4 months from now. For better or worse. The point I was trying to make, was that you really don't know how things are going to play out. Odds are, if were lucky, we make the playoffs. More likely, we don't. But until I can safely say the season is lost again, I'll remain hopeful that some magic happens, and the team exceeds expectations. I'll be honest with you, this current Kings team probably has more talent on it than that Warrior team did. Of course Rick Barry was a terrific player that had the ability to make everyone around him better. I don't know if Cousins has that ability. Wilkes turned out to be a very good player, and Smith, not so much that season, but from there on, was a borderline star in the league as was Wilkes.

I mention them because who knows how well Skal might play, or Richardson? Those two players might be the difference between making or not making the playoffs. Maybe McLemore suddenly has the lights go on and he takes a quantum leap forward. Maybe Gay, now injury free, returns to his original form and has a career year. All wishful thinking of course, but also possible. One thing I know is that winning can become contagious. Once you figure out how to win, it becomes easier. I know that sounds simplistic, but believe me, there's just a fine line between winning and losing, and it's all mental. It's the difference between having a team full of players that hope their going to win, and a team full of players knowing their going to win. If this team can avoid a horrible start, then I think they might have a chance of making the playoffs.
 

Bricklayer

Don't Make Me Use The Bat
#4
I made the comparison to Riley taking over the '92 Knicks in another thread:

Once upon a time there was a HOF center entering his 7th year in the league.

He was coming off a season in which he had averaged 26.6pts 11,2reb 3.0 ast and was carrying a PER of 23.7.

Then his team went out and hired a notorious defensively minded coach. Or actually in this case, a coach who would become notoriously defensively minded.

The roster didn't look very promising. The team had won less than 40 games the season before, and 6 of the 9 main rotation players used by the new coach (he was famous for tight strict rotations) were holdovers. The new guys were a shortish PF who had averaged 3.3pts a game the previous season, a rookie defensive minded PG who couldn't shoot, and a semi-disgraced fallen former star who was looking for a bounceback/redemption year.

Holdovers included the HOF center and his offensively challenged defensive PF wingman, a veteran scoring SF near the end of his career, a mediocre veteran SG who had averaged 12ppg the season before, a youngish sloppy but dynamic SG/combo guard who had averaged 7.1pts the season before, and a sometimes starter at PG with a limited pass first no defense game.


Notice any similarities to the current situation?

That New York Knicks team went on to win 51 games for Pat Riley in 1991-92. Ewing anchored them with 24.0pts 11.2rebs. Nobody else averaged more than 13.9pts. But the coach drove them on defense, they built the team around the defensive frontline, and the various mediocrities and over the hill types on the wing scored just enough to let them grit out wins for a team that had the 3rd slowest pace in the league.
 
#7
I would be happy with a .500 season. I guess my expectations have been tempered by years of losing and embarrassment.

I'd like to see a complete culture change. That would be more impressive and desirable. New arena - New Attitude. Create a. new attitude that will create a culture of winning. Something this team hasn't had since Webber crumpled to the ground in the playoff game under the basket against Dallas 13 years ago.
 
#8
Speculations on the future. In general I believe there is good reason for hope of better play and more wins. The abovef observations concerning talent level are probably accurate. However I believe the talent is there to have a better season, better team play, more wins.

Key elements. We have potentially cured some negative elements from last year. Coach and Cuz disconnect or "bad connection". Cuz's "slow" participation too often. His feet and conditioning are better and the coach negative and hopefully the "ref" negative we can expect to be better. The "four-man" offense should be replaced by a five-man offense. We have a new SG whom we can expect to be included. Our leader in missed shots is no longer with us. Our offensive schemes can be set by a competent coaching staff because our offensive system of last year i s gone. Some teams use the "triangle", some use the "Princeton" but last year we used the "Rondo"- which was not bad but not one that resulted in a healthy team play.

Team play. With many of the negatives of last year out f the way, there is lots of room for the coaches to mold significantly improved team play on both offense and defense.

Will this improvement in team play and therefore in team wins happen? Only time starting in the near future will tell. For me this view of things gives me considerable hope and real optimism. I'm looking forward to this season and ready to enjoy every minute of it.
 
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#9
I personally find these historical parallel type comparisons stupid. So our team has some facile similarities to teams in the past, so what? That doesn't necessarily mean that the team's season is going to mirror or even be similar to what happened before.

I prefer to look at the actual factors are for and against us having a successful season.

For:
-Still have one of the ten best players in the NBA plus a coach with the pedigree to bring out the best in him
-Speaking of the coach, he will assuredly fix the busted defensive system from last season. This team has the personnel to defend much better than they did last year, where the problems were mostly systemic.
-More veteran depth in the wings and frontcourt.
-Less off-court drama between the front office, coach, and players this offseason as compared to last

Against:
-PG spot in massive flux. No perimeter playmaker if Lawson doesn't pan out, and DC facing a suspension of unknown length
-Still lack shooting and spacing in a pace-and-space era
-Second best player might or might not be traded and isn't happy with the lack of stability. Without him the team seriously lacks high-end talent
-Best player is getting uncomfortably close to free agency. Expect rumors to ramp up this season.
-Franchise still lacks stability. Saying all the right things now, will it continue?
 
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