The Marvin Bagley thread

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Luka quote "playing against grown ass men since he was 16" is not relevant to whether he should have been drafted higher than Bagley.

Is he not averaging 30/10/9 in the NBA? That's really hard to do, few have ever done it, and it's incredibly unlikely that Marvin Bagley will ever sniff those numbers. Luka is also leading his team to wins in the NBA. Luka may be doing that earlier than the typical 20 year old but the fact he's doing it at all is more of testament to his talent and not where he was playing a few years ago. If it was easy to do somebody else would be doing it.
It still seems that lost on almost everyone is that no one thought Doncic was going to be this good. Did anyone really think Doncic would be a top player in the league in year 2? I didn't, and I liked him a lot. I'd bet the Mavericks didn't think so either. Doncic is a surprise player. The point is that how much blame can we place on Vlade for not being able to see what nobody else saw either? It's hysteria.
 
It still seems that lost on almost everyone is that no one thought Doncic was going to be this good. Did anyone really think Doncic would be a top player in the league in year 2? I didn't, and I liked him a lot. I'd bet the Mavericks didn't think so either. Doncic is a surprise player. The point is that how much blame can we place on Vlade for not being able to see what nobody else saw either? It's hysteria.
I agree with you that nobody foresaw Doncic having such a huge and immediate impact on the Mavs. Despite what some of his fans are arguing, he was NOT a consensus 1st draft pick. It was, in fact, a two-horse race (with Ayton).

Having said that, GMs are paid to make decisions on draft nights, and they need to be held accountable for their decisions. If you don't hold the GM accountable, there will be consequences throughout the organisation.

Vlade made many mistakes on draft nights, which potentially set the organisation back. A couple of examples:

Doncic: the hot topic on this forum, naturally. Vlade had the asset (2nd pick) to nab him and figure it out. He opted to draft Bagley instead. That was his prerogative. That is why he is the GM and we are merely fans on the Kings forum.
At the same time, Donnie Nelson - who owned only the 5th pick - decided to take a punt. He traded the pick he had (alongside another protected pick) to ATL to get Doncic. This is exactly the type of decisions GMs are measured on, and it seems like Nelson hit a home run. You may argue that nobody knew Doncic will turn out to be THAT good so quickly (an argument I already accepted), but Nelson thought it was the right call (bet) to make. Interestingly, Travis Schlenk - who is credited for drafting Draymond Green with a 2nd round pick - assessed he is getting good value for trading his 3rd pick (i.e. Doncic), as he agreed to the trade the Mavs offered and gambled on Trae Young.

Giles: A different example, but worth mentioning. Giles potential was undisputed when Vlade picked him with the 20th pick in 2017. But he had a worrying - well recorded - medical history, which is probably one of the reasons why other GMs passed on him on draft night. Vlade decided Giles is worth the bet. That's his job. Looking at the outcome it is clear (in my view) that he made the wrong call. Not because anyone can see today (with the benefit of hindsight) who was drafted after Giles and turned out to be a great player (which is an argument I often see on fans' forums), but because he gambled on an injury-prone player who did not overcome his medical issues, and will most likely leave the team at the end of the season. An asset (a first draft pick) was not capitalized*.

I am not arguing a GM should only be measured by his ability to draft players. But in an organisation like the Kings it is a monumental aspect, as the organisation depends on identifying young (often unproven) talent to improve. Every GM knows that when he is offered a job at the Kings.

Vlade has too often made the wrong calls. This is why I believe the honourable thing for him to do is step down at the end of the season.

(*) To provide further perspective: Greg Oden was also a risky draft pick, given his medical history, but his upside was so huge he was the consensus number 1 pick. Therefore I am of the opinion that POR should not be criticized for drafting him first in 2007, despite Durant turning out to be the more impactful player. The same can be said for Zion Williamson (though we don't know yet how his career will pan out).
 
Marvin will never be Luka, not even half of what Luka is and he “for sure” will get even better to become perennial mvp candidate.

But the truth is, no matter how good he is, he is not wearing the kings uniform(blame Vlade) and Marvin does.
Marvin can become a very good PF, tbh, he needs to improve his weak hand finish and his defense awareness, that be enough for him.
Both weaknesses can be fixed easily if he actually makes an effort to do it.
 
It still seems that lost on almost everyone is that no one thought Doncic was going to be this good. Did anyone really think Doncic would be a top player in the league in year 2? I didn't, and I liked him a lot. I'd bet the Mavericks didn't think so either. Doncic is a surprise player. The point is that how much blame can we place on Vlade for not being able to see what nobody else saw either? It's hysteria.
I truly thought he will be this good, in fact i thought he can even be better than he is right now, just not in year 2, but more like in year 4 or 5. But I never doubted he can do what he is doing right now.

But again i’m European I watched this kid play twice per week for 2 years.
So I was able to see his potential.

But so does The kings scouters, they also saw him play twice per week for 2 years I wonder why they didn’t see something so obvious....
 
Well vlade said he felt Luka would stiffle foxes development.

Thus they must believe fox can become an all star MVP type player.
Those premises could both be true and it still doesn't make the conclusion correct. Huge Vlade fail omg.

a) Adding Doncic to the team would stifle Fox's development.
b) Fox has All Star/MVP upside
... therefore c) pass on Doncic in the draft for a high upside young athletic big prospect.

Huge syllogism fail - because it assumes that "Doncic likely performance minus incremental cost to Fox development <<< Bagley likely performance + extra development afforded Fox". Which is exceedingly weak premise and probably not true.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
I'll defer to Artur91 on his ability to predict Doncic's future. I watched Doncic play quite a bit in Europe, (http://www.livebasketball.tv/ is a great website by the way) and while I really like him, I never thought he would be this good this soon. Anytime you watch a European player play, your always going to wonder, if what he does there will translate to the NBA. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. In Doncic's case, it did, and then some. The list of those who didn't is long!

I had three players at the top of my list, and none of them were named Ayton, who I liked, but thought was a bit overrated. Don't get me wrong, I thought Ayton would go first, I just wouldn't have taken him first. I had Bagley, Jackson, and Doncic all ranked almost equally, but all for different reasons. As to who will be the best of the three at the end of their careers is still up for grabs right now, but obviously Doncic has the lead at the moment.

It's rare for a player to come into the NBA and be an instant star. In most cases, when they do, your generally looking at a future HOF'er. But not always. Tyreke Evans made a big splash his rookie year, but then faded when the league adjusted to his game. I usually base more on a players 2nd year in the league. The old saying that the league giveth, and the league taketh away, is true. Whatever your doing, the league will adjust and take that away from you. If you can't equally adjust, well then your the next Tyreke Evans. Doncic adjusted!

I understood why Vlade took Bagley over Doncic. Look how Doncic basically destroyed Dennis Smiths career. Smith went from looking like a very good prospect, to non-relevant. Not saying that he would have done the same to Fox. Matter of fact, I'm fairly sure he wouldn't have. And in hindsight, with Fox being injured, having Doncic would have been a gigantic plus. I'm a believer that you can't have too many good passers on a team, and having Fox, Doncic, and Bogi all on the floor together would have been fun to watch.

But as they say, it's water under the bridge now. We can't go back and re-do the draft. Right now, it looks like a huge mistake. But if the Kings were winning, the mistake wouldn't look quite as bad. But as my grandmother used to say, IF, is for children! So here's the question, and think about it logically and not emotionally. Would firing Vlade make a difference going forward, knowing that a new GM would in all likely hood, clean house, meaning Walton and his entire staff would also be gone.

Do we really want to give the national press another reason to mock our franchise? Do we really want to go through another coaching change with another new system? It's easy to get emotional and say fire Vlade, but there's a lot of collateral damage that comes with that decision. I do think that some changes need to be made, but as they say, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water.

One final thought on the subject. Players come into the league, and in 90% of the cases, if their good enough to stick, they're far better players in their 4th year than they were in their first. I won't bore you with naming said players. The Kings have in the past, given up on some players too soon. I think Vlade is similar to a player, in that he's going to get better at his job. He came in with zero experience, and maybe he shouldn't have been hired in the first place, but regardless of that, and what you may think, you do get better at your job as you gain experience.

So I'm willing to stick with Vlade a bit longer, but please, no more Papagiannises!
 
I'll defer to Artur91 on his ability to predict Doncic's future. I watched Doncic play quite a bit in Europe, (http://www.livebasketball.tv/ is a great website by the way) and while I really like him, I never thought he would be this good this soon. Anytime you watch a European player play, your always going to wonder, if what he does there will translate to the NBA. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. In Doncic's case, it did, and then some. The list of those who didn't is long!

I had three players at the top of my list, and none of them were named Ayton, who I liked, but thought was a bit overrated. Don't get me wrong, I thought Ayton would go first, I just wouldn't have taken him first. I had Bagley, Jackson, and Doncic all ranked almost equally, but all for different reasons. As to who will be the best of the three at the end of their careers is still up for grabs right now, but obviously Doncic has the lead at the moment.

.......

Do we really want to give the national press another reason to mock our franchise? Do we really want to go through another coaching change with another new system? It's easy to get emotional and say fire Vlade, but there's a lot of collateral damage that comes with that decision. I do think that some changes need to be made, but as they say, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water.
I was a supporter of Bagley as I thought he would ramp faster with better coaching but he has not. The lesson for me is don’t ignore BBIQ for athleticism.

I’m not sure mocking from national press is an issue. We are already seen as a laughingstock. The team did bring in Joe Dumars to help consult on the draft. The question is will he help. Here is his draft history:

https://www.detroitbadboys.com/2014/6/4/5779484/joe-dumars-complete-draft-history-with-the-pistons
 
I'll defer to Artur91 on his ability to predict Doncic's future. I watched Doncic play quite a bit in Europe, (http://www.livebasketball.tv/ is a great website by the way) and while I really like him, I never thought he would be this good this soon. Anytime you watch a European player play, your always going to wonder, if what he does there will translate to the NBA. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. In Doncic's case, it did, and then some. The list of those who didn't is long!
What's up Baja. Hope all's well.

I disagree on the prediction of would Luka's game translate to the NBA at the time leading up to the draft.

The "will a Euro player's game translate to the NBA" is more applicable to a previous era when they generally failed to develop the 1v1 skills required to be a legit NBA success. But the few, particularly guards/wings who had that skill translated their games just fine. Looking at the entire skillset of a player is no different overseas than in college here in the states. It's generally the guys who lack a handle who have question marks surrounding them as they can't create space.

I was fortunate enough to watch Luka in person vs Olympiakos and the full package he displayed was one of the best I had ever seen for someone his age, and I've seen a lot of players up close over the years. His handle, the maturity and versatility of his moves, his ability to create space either for a jumper or to get to the rack and his general feel for the game and vision made him in my eyes, the top Euro prospect of all time. He wasn't just a star in Europe, he was controlling the tempo of games in the best league outside the NBA at 17/18. He already had the ability to get wherever he wanted on the floor vs full grown men. That's more impressive than doing the same at a school like Duke.

Perhaps that's why I never compared to other Euros. There's never been another Euro like him.

I frankly don't see how similar success at a lower level in the NCAA would provide more confidence in drafting a player. There have been countless college players who lit up terrible NCAA defenses who couldn't translate their game to the pros. Jimmer being an obvious example. Part of that is they're going against kids and part of that is NCAA level defense is worse than the Euroleague where there's less room to operate which makes what Luka did even more impressive. Most Euros simply don't have the skillset to get where they want on the floor in that setting. But when someone can, it's what leads to Luka saying scoring in the NBA is actually easier given the space.

We rarely see a player at Luka's size with his skillset in the NCAA. But for argument's sake if he displayed the same type of game for Duke and led them to the Championship as a freshman, which would have actually been less impressive than leading Real Madrid to a Euroleague title, would there have been less hesitancy to draft him? That is what I don't get. Marvin can be a good NBA player but Luka was a better player at 18 with a far superior and proven skillset at 18 who played at a higher level at 18. I almost want to ask what more could he have done to solidify himself as the #1 overall(which is where I had him and at the time of the draft I said you take Luka without hesitation and don't turn back)? If the answer is play at a lower level for a college in the states, I won't agree.

Yet averaging 7/3 for Panathinaikos in Greece offered enough confidence for Vlade to draft Papa G 13th overall? Doesn't add up.

So the problem here is while I've been heavily involved in this game for years in both the states and Europe, I'm not the guy getting paid 5M to get it right. Yet in my eyes it was one of, if not the most obvious draft selection this franchise has ever had.

Now if I'm running a business(which I do) and hire an expert to make specific decisions(which I have), and I as the non expert get the decision correct while he misses, his job is immediately in jeopardy. Would I fire Vlade? Maybe, maybe not. I'd probably give him time to see how this roster fits when everyone is healthy. Would also need to know more about what goes in behind the scenes and who the replacement options are. Firing isn't a fix unless the replacement is an improvement, which could lead into firing Joerger and hiring Walton, another questionable Vlade decision but that's another topic. But when you compound all this with his being Euro and should be more familiar with Euro ball than most other GM's, missing on both Luka and Pappa G is a very real red flag. Meanwhile Donnie Nelson scouted and convinced the Mavs to draft Dirk, rode his HOF coattails for two decades and followed it up by going hard after Luka and getting what appears to be the next Euro HOFer.

That's not just a coincidence. These decisions are franchise altering.
 
I'll defer to Artur91 on his ability to predict Doncic's future. I watched Doncic play quite a bit in Europe, (http://www.livebasketball.tv/ is a great website by the way) and while I really like him, I never thought he would be this good this soon. Anytime you watch a European player play, your always going to wonder, if what he does there will translate to the NBA. Sometimes it does, and sometimes it doesn't. In Doncic's case, it did, and then some. The list of those who didn't is long!

I had three players at the top of my list, and none of them were named Ayton, who I liked, but thought was a bit overrated. Don't get me wrong, I thought Ayton would go first, I just wouldn't have taken him first. I had Bagley, Jackson, and Doncic all ranked almost equally, but all for different reasons. As to who will be the best of the three at the end of their careers is still up for grabs right now, but obviously Doncic has the lead at the moment.

It's rare for a player to come into the NBA and be an instant star. In most cases, when they do, your generally looking at a future HOF'er. But not always. Tyreke Evans made a big splash his rookie year, but then faded when the league adjusted to his game. I usually base more on a players 2nd year in the league. The old saying that the league giveth, and the league taketh away, is true. Whatever your doing, the league will adjust and take that away from you. If you can't equally adjust, well then your the next Tyreke Evans. Doncic adjusted!

I understood why Vlade took Bagley over Doncic. Look how Doncic basically destroyed Dennis Smiths career. Smith went from looking like a very good prospect, to non-relevant. Not saying that he would have done the same to Fox. Matter of fact, I'm fairly sure he wouldn't have. And in hindsight, with Fox being injured, having Doncic would have been a gigantic plus. I'm a believer that you can't have too many good passers on a team, and having Fox, Doncic, and Bogi all on the floor together would have been fun to watch.

But as they say, it's water under the bridge now. We can't go back and re-do the draft. Right now, it looks like a huge mistake. But if the Kings were winning, the mistake wouldn't look quite as bad. But as my grandmother used to say, IF, is for children! So here's the question, and think about it logically and not emotionally. Would firing Vlade make a difference going forward, knowing that a new GM would in all likely hood, clean house, meaning Walton and his entire staff would also be gone.

Do we really want to give the national press another reason to mock our franchise? Do we really want to go through another coaching change with another new system? It's easy to get emotional and say fire Vlade, but there's a lot of collateral damage that comes with that decision. I do think that some changes need to be made, but as they say, I wouldn't throw the baby out with the bath water.

One final thought on the subject. Players come into the league, and in 90% of the cases, if their good enough to stick, they're far better players in their 4th year than they were in their first. I won't bore you with naming said players. The Kings have in the past, given up on some players too soon. I think Vlade is similar to a player, in that he's going to get better at his job. He came in with zero experience, and maybe he shouldn't have been hired in the first place, but regardless of that, and what you may think, you do get better at your job as you gain experience.

So I'm willing to stick with Vlade a bit longer, but please, no more Papagiannises!
Are we still doing this go ask NYK fans how smith is doing cause they claim he’ll be out the league in 2-3 years. But that’s probably Lukas fault to and if Luka did stunt fox growth I wouldn’t care cause Fox isn’t half the player he is. You don’t pass on an mvp player cause he might stunt a all star play growth this is absurd.
 

bajaden

Hall of Famer
What's up Baja. Hope all's well.

I disagree on the prediction of would Luka's game translate to the NBA at the time leading up to the draft.

The "will a Euro player's game translate to the NBA" is more applicable to a previous era when they generally failed to develop the 1v1 skills required to be a legit NBA success. But the few, particularly guards/wings who had that skill translated their games just fine. Looking at the entire skillset of a player is no different overseas than in college here in the states. It's generally the guys who lack a handle who have question marks surrounding them as they can't create space.

I was fortunate enough to watch Luka in person vs Olympiakos and the full package he displayed was one of the best I had ever seen for someone his age, and I've seen a lot of players up close over the years. His handle, the maturity and versatility of his moves, his ability to create space either for a jumper or to get to the rack and his general feel for the game and vision made him in my eyes, the top Euro prospect of all time. He wasn't just a star in Europe, he was controlling the tempo of games in the best league outside the NBA at 17/18. He already had the ability to get wherever he wanted on the floor vs full grown men. That's more impressive than doing the same at a school like Duke.

Perhaps that's why I never compared to other Euros. There's never been another Euro like him.

I frankly don't see how similar success at a lower level in the NCAA would provide more confidence in drafting a player. There have been countless college players who lit up terrible NCAA defenses who couldn't translate their game to the pros. Jimmer being an obvious example. Part of that is they're going against kids and part of that is NCAA level defense is worse than the Euroleague where there's less room to operate which makes what Luka did even more impressive. Most Euros simply don't have the skillset to get where they want on the floor in that setting. But when someone can, it's what leads to Luka saying scoring in the NBA is actually easier given the space.

We rarely see a player at Luka's size with his skillset in the NCAA. But for argument's sake if he displayed the same type of game for Duke and led them to the Championship as a freshman, which would have actually been less impressive than leading Real Madrid to a Euroleague title, would there have been less hesitancy to draft him? That is what I don't get. Marvin can be a good NBA player but Luka was a better player at 18 with a far superior and proven skillset at 18 who played at a higher level at 18. I almost want to ask what more could he have done to solidify himself as the #1 overall(which is where I had him and at the time of the draft I said you take Luka without hesitation and don't turn back)? If the answer is play at a lower level for a college in the states, I won't agree.

Yet averaging 7/3 for Panathinaikos in Greece offered enough confidence for Vlade to draft Papa G 13th overall? Doesn't add up.

So the problem here is while I've been heavily involved in this game for years in both the states and Europe, I'm not the guy getting paid 5M to get it right. Yet in my eyes it was one of, if not the most obvious draft selection this franchise has ever had.

Now if I'm running a business(which I do) and hire an expert to make specific decisions(which I have), and I as the non expert get the decision correct while he misses, his job is immediately in jeopardy. Would I fire Vlade? Maybe, maybe not. I'd probably give him time to see how this roster fits when everyone is healthy. Would also need to know more about what goes in behind the scenes and who the replacement options are. Firing isn't a fix unless the replacement is an improvement, which could lead into firing Joerger and hiring Walton, another questionable Vlade decision but that's another topic. But when you compound all this with his being Euro and should be more familiar with Euro ball than most other GM's, missing on both Luka and Pappa G is a very real red flag. Meanwhile Donnie Nelson scouted and convinced the Mavs to draft Dirk, rode his HOF coattails for two decades and followed it up by going hard after Luka and getting what appears to be the next Euro HOFer.

That's not just a coincidence. These decisions are franchise altering.
Well first things first, no, everything is not fine with me, but I'll PM you about that. Second, I really don't disagree with what you said. To some degree, I was playing devils advocate. I do understand why Vlade went with Bagley to some degree, but I'm not sure that's a good enough reason. Time will tell. There's no doubt that Vlade has made some mistakes. I'm still pondering why they didn't pick up Giles option? It basically would have cost them nothing to do so, and then they would have still had some options regarding him. Now, he's probably gone.

If Giles gets picked up by another team and in two years he's an all star, that would be a hard one to swallow. I agree that one would think that if anyone would know how good Doncic is, it would be Vlade. The fact that he passed made me think that maybe he knows something that I don't. Well if so, that something hasn't materialized.

Anyway, good to see you back. I'll PM you!
 
It still seems that lost on almost everyone is that no one thought Doncic was going to be this good. Did anyone really think Doncic would be a top player in the league in year 2? I didn't, and I liked him a lot. I'd bet the Mavericks didn't think so either. Doncic is a surprise player. The point is that how much blame can we place on Vlade for not being able to see what nobody else saw either? It's hysteria.
That is such a lie. EVERYONE who knew anything about this draft had Luka at #1 or #2. He is not a surprise player. If you even watched him play a little at Real Madrid or with Slovenia you saw a special level basketball IQ and skill level. It's absurd to try to make the argument that no one saw this coming.
 
Saying "I don't want Luka because it would stifle the development of Fox" is like the Grizzlies saying I don't want Lebron James because it will hurt the development of Mike Conley. It's absurd. I love Fox, he has a great future, but I seriously doubt he can ever be a top 10 player in the league. He might top out at around the top 15-20 level if we are lucky. Luka is already a top 10 player and arguably top 5 at age 20.
 
Saying "I don't want Luka because it would stifle the development of Fox" is like the Grizzlies saying I don't want Lebron James because it will hurt the development of Mike Conley. It's absurd. I love Fox, he has a great future, but I seriously doubt he can ever be a top 10 player in the league. He might top out at around the top 15-20 level if we are lucky. Luka is already a top 10 player and arguably top 5 at age 20.
He might not be a top 10 PG
 
Saying "I don't want Luka because it would stifle the development of Fox" is like the Grizzlies saying I don't want Lebron James because it will hurt the development of Mike Conley. It's absurd. I love Fox, he has a great future, but I seriously doubt he can ever be a top 10 player in the league. He might top out at around the top 15-20 level if we are lucky. Luka is already a top 10 player and arguably top 5 at age 20.
He probably won’t reach top 15 player unless he becomes a good shooter
 
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