The Marvin Bagley thread

[twslam07]

We have to live with giving Bagley big minutes right now vs. trying to play the more impactful players (Holmes & Bjelica).

If Bagley figures it out quickly, then you’re probably winning more games and having a promising young duo of Fox/Bagley. If he doesn’t figure it out, you’re likely racking up the losses and have a better shot at drafting another potential star in next years draft.

If Bagley busts, a Fox/Hield/Bogdan/Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes core is not going to be close to good enough to be a top seed in this league, but it will likely lead to middling 1st round picks and an extended period of mediocrity until we blow it up again.

This is why my approach was always to stay patient and to not sign veterans to big deals when we don’t even have established stars on this team. We gambled by assuming Fox and Bagley would become stars. If one of them doesn’t become a star, we’re headed towards being a treadmill team due to the decisions Vlade made.

Play Bagley 30+ min a game and either...

1. Rack up the losses and improve our chances at drafting a star next year
2. Or he figures it out and starts to look like he’s headed down the path of stardom

If we limit his minutes and he busts, it will make it that much harder to find our 2nd star in the draft. The point is to either win via your potential stars or lose via your potential stars. If you win via your potential stars, you probably have your stars in place and can start to build around them. If you lose via your stars, then you have a better pick to draft another potential star next year.

 

[Joshoua]

We have to live with giving Bagley big minutes right now vs. trying to play the more impactful players (Holmes & Bjelica).

If Bagley figures it out quickly, then you’re probably winning more games and having a promising young duo of Fox/Bagley. If he doesn’t figure it out, you’re likely racking up the losses and have a better shot at drafting another potential star in next years draft.

If Bagley busts, a Fox/Hield/Bogdan/Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes core is not going to be close to good enough to be a top seed in this league, but it will likely lead to middling 1st round picks and an extended period of mediocrity until we blow it up again.

This is why my approach was always to stay patient and to not sign veterans to big deals when we don’t even have established stars on this team. We gambled by assuming Fox and Bagley would become stars. If one of them doesn’t become a star, we’re headed towards being a treadmill team due to the decisions Vlade made.

Play Bagley 30+ min a game and either...

1. Rack up the losses and improve our chances at drafting a star next year
2. Or he figures it out and starts to look like he’s headed down the path of stardom

If we limit his minutes and he busts, it will make it that much harder to find our 2nd star in the draft. The point is to either win via your potential stars or lose via your potential stars. If you win via your potential stars, you probably have your stars in place and can start to build around them. If you lose via your stars, then you have a better pick to draft another potential star next year.

Can’t just roll out a guy for 30mpg who doesn’t set picks, can’t space the floor, is a deer in the headlights on defense, and is a net negative. Not when we’re trying to win and would hurt his development, you want 30ppg earn it to take it don’t expect it given to you when your hurting the team

 

[sactowndog]

Bagley looks weak, doesn't go up strong to score or rebound. He has a long way to go to be an impact player in the league.

I am shocked at the fact we lose Fox and Bagley to injuries but get better, they come back then we lose Bogdan and get worse

might hint at their current respective value for those wanting to trade Bogdan.

 

[ppine]

Continues his under whelming play.

 

[sactowndog]

We have to live with giving Bagley big minutes right now vs. trying to play the more impactful players (Holmes & Bjelica).

If Bagley figures it out quickly, then you’re probably winning more games and having a promising young duo of Fox/Bagley. If he doesn’t figure it out, you’re likely racking up the losses and have a better shot at drafting another potential star in next years draft.

If Bagley busts, a Fox/Hield/Bogdan/Barnes/Bjelica/Holmes core is not going to be close to good enough to be a top seed in this league, but it will likely lead to middling 1st round picks and an extended period of mediocrity until we blow it up again.

This is why my approach was always to stay patient and to not sign veterans to big deals when we don’t even have established stars on this team. We gambled by assuming Fox and Bagley would become stars. If one of them doesn’t become a star, we’re headed towards being a treadmill team due to the decisions Vlade made.

Play Bagley 30+ min a game and either...

1. Rack up the losses and improve our chances at drafting a star next year
2. Or he figures it out and starts to look like he’s headed down the path of stardom

If we limit his minutes and he busts, it will make it that much harder to find our 2nd star in the draft. The point is to either win via your potential stars or lose via your potential stars. If you win via your potential stars, you probably have your stars in place and can start to build around them. If you lose via your stars, then you have a better pick to draft another potential star next year.

the only problem with your theory is you still have Vlade drafting and his success rate is questionable. Let’s look at his record:

2015: 6th Willie Cauley Stein
On board: justice Winslow, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelley Oubre,

2016: 13th. Pappagiannis
On Board: Malik Beasley, Lavert, Siakim, DeJounte Murray, Brogdan

2016: 22nd Richardson
On Board: Siakim, DeJounte Murray, Malcom Brogdan

2016 28th Skal
On Board: DeJounte Murray, Malcom Brogdan

2017. 5th Fox

2017. 10th Pick (Giles and Justin Jackson)
On Board: Zach Collins, Mitchell, Adedayo

even after trade
2017 15th Jackson
On Board: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White

2017 20th Harry Giles
On Board: OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White

2018: 2nd Marvin Bagley
On Board: Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Wendall Carter, Both Bridges

The only pick of Vlade’s you wouldn’t change in hindsight is Fox. He consistently picks low IQ players and flyers that don’t work out. So to help with the draft they brought Joe Dumars of the following fame:

2003 Draft. 2 Darko Milicic
On the Board: Wade, Bosch, Anthony

 

[iowamcnabb]

This is why my approach was always to stay patient and to not sign veterans to big deals when we don’t even have established stars on this team. We gambled by assuming Fox and Bagley would become stars. If one of them doesn’t become a star, we’re headed towards being a treadmill team due to the decisions Vlade made.

I don’t blame Vlade for signing good veteran role players now because they can all still grow with the core. The reality is, our potential star is in his 3rd season and needs to take the wheel NOW. Our 3rd level “star” is in his 4th year, Harrison and Bogi are in their prime. Bagley is the big question mark. The Fox we saw in the 4th is the one we need on a nightly basis. Coach needs to hand him the keys and get everyone else out of the way. Drive and dish to Buddy and Barnes. Alley oops to Bagley and Holmes. Keep it simple, get back to the defense we saw while they were all out.

 

[sergmatt]

the only problem with your theory is you still have Vlade drafting and his success rate is questionable. Let’s look at his record:

Nice laid out post and I don't see how anyone could look at Vlade's Drafts and not admit he has been terrible. Not only has he consistently swung and missed at his first round picks, he's also failed to land any steals in the second round like so many other teams have. When you are in a rebuilding situation and you have a hard time attracting star level free agents, it's imperative that you get it right with first round draft picks. Vlade has consistently gotten it wrong.

Fox was most likely a good pick and also the obvious pick at the time. I can't fault him for Willie either because at the time Willie was the desired selection of many posters here, he was projected to go in the Top-7 or so, he filled a need, he had a ton of upside, etc. I also can't fault him for taking Skal at 28th. That wasn't a bad pick at all and was worth the "gamble" (if you can even call it that) at 28th.

However other than those mentioned above, the rest of his picks have been awful and were highly questioned on draft night. Trading the 10th Pick for 15th/20th seemed like a decent idea on paper but then you use that 15th pick on Justin Jackson???? Makes me want to vomit. Justin Jackson sucks and had no upside when he was drafted. At best he was going to be a guy that could shoot corner 3's and defend a little.....you don't trade the 10th pick in a good draft for that. Harry was probably worth the gamble but if you are going to take that gamble you gotta see it through (and now they're cutting bait early). Finally you have Papagiannis who was the most ridiculous pick of them all. Granted it was a weak draft, but Vlade used the 12th pick on a 7' 2" slow plodding bruiser in a league that had obviously already shifted toward guards and mobile perimeter big men. Even if Papagiannis had been effective for what he is (he wasn't), he had no chance of succeeding in the current NBA.

 

[Larry89]

Does he have any skills apart from jumping high?

He's got pretty good touch around the rim but is limited because he always prefers his left hand

 

[tyguy]

the only problem with your theory is you still have Vlade drafting and his success rate is questionable. Let’s look at his record:

2015: 6th Willie Cauley Stein
On board: justice Winslow, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelley Oubre,

2016: 13th. Pappagiannis
On Board: Malik Beasley, Lavert, Siakim, DeJounte Murray, Brogdan

2016: 22nd Richardson
On Board: Siakim, DeJounte Murray, Malcom Brogdan

2016 28th Skal
On Board: DeJounte Murray, Malcom Brogdan

2017. 5th Fox

2017. 10th Pick (Giles and Justin Jackson)
On Board: Zach Collins, Mitchell, Adedayo

even after trade
2017 15th Jackson
On Board: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White

2017 20th Harry Giles
On Board: OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White

2018: 2nd Marvin Bagley
On Board: Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Wendall Carter, Both Bridges

The only pick of Vlade’s you wouldn’t change in hindsight is Fox. He consistently picks low IQ players and flyers that don’t work out. So to help with the draft they brought Joe Dumars of the following fame:

2003 Draft. 2 Darko Milicic
On the Board: Wade, Bosch, Anthony

Something to keep in mind, this is only his draft history. He's been equally inept in trades and free agency. Vlade Divac is objectively a bad gm and we would be without a doubt in much better position if he had someone more competent at the wheel.

He should have been terminated immediately after that sixer trade. That was an all timer right there without the benefit of hindsight.

 

[twslam07]

Can’t just roll out a guy for 30mpg who doesn’t set picks, can’t space the floor, is a deer in the headlights on defense, and is a net negative. Not when we’re trying to win and would hurt his development, you want 30ppg earn it to take it don’t expect it given to you when your hurting the team

Sure you can.

This whole “we’re trying to win now” argument is so weak in my mind. What’s the point of trying to win as many games now when it will lead to becoming a treadmill team? Stars take a team far in this league. Fox (although looks good) is not currently a star and Bagley is all potential at this point. We have no established stars. We need to stop counting our chickens before they hatch and be in the mindset of asset collection.

Giving Holmes and Bjelica more minutes at this point will increase our wins, yes, but make it that much harder to draft the stars we desperately need to become a top seed in this league. Perhaps some fans are fine with competing for the 7th-11th seed year after year (which maybe you are) but I’m not.

 

[twslam07]

the only problem with your theory is you still have Vlade drafting and his success rate is questionable. Let’s look at his record:

2015: 6th Willie Cauley Stein
On board: justice Winslow, Myles Turner, Devin Booker, Kelley Oubre,

2016: 13th. Pappagiannis
On Board: Malik Beasley, Lavert, Siakim, DeJounte Murray, Brogdan

2016: 22nd Richardson
On Board: Siakim, DeJounte Murray, Malcom Brogdan

2016 28th Skal
On Board: DeJounte Murray, Malcom Brogdan

2017. 5th Fox

2017. 10th Pick (Giles and Justin Jackson)
On Board: Zach Collins, Mitchell, Adedayo

even after trade
2017 15th Jackson
On Board: John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White

2017 20th Harry Giles
On Board: OG Anunoby, Kyle Kuzma, Derrick White

2018: 2nd Marvin Bagley
On Board: Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Wendall Carter, Both Bridges

The only pick of Vlade’s you wouldn’t change in hindsight is Fox. He consistently picks low IQ players and flyers that don’t work out. So to help with the draft they brought Joe Dumars of the following fame:

2003 Draft. 2 Darko Milicic
On the Board: Wade, Bosch, Anthony

So there’s no hope is essentially what you’re saying?

Look you don’t need to walk me through Vlade’s draft history. I’m well aware of it, but you’re acting like there’s a 0% chance Vlade is going to draft a star player. You know that’s not true. There’s always a chance. Now you can argue that % would be higher with Musai drafting but this team is going to need at least two stars to become a top seed. If Bagley busts, where are we getting that star talent from (this is assuming Fox even becomes a star caliber player. If he tops out as Jeff Teague in his prime for example we’re more screwed).

• Bogdan, Hield, Barnes? We all know these guys have limited ceilings.
• Will we get one in FA? History tells us that’s very unlikely.
• Trade? Well if we move Bagley now with Hield/Bogdan/Barnes/1st rounder(s) you may be able to land one, but if you sit on Bagley and he looks more and more like a bust then the Kings won’t really have the assets to land a star via trade.

EDIT: I feel like a Bagley/Hield for Beal deal in the offseason would be a last ditch effort (with Hield going somewhere else and picks/young assets going to WAS instead) but I’m not super confident that a Fox/Beal/Bogdan/Barnes/Holmes core is enough to push for that top seed but perhaps we get lucky on a couple of our 1sts to help bolster that team.

 

[ESP47]

I think I'm on board with twslam these days. Earlier in the season I was all about getting wins and fighting for the last two playoff spots but at this point it doesn't look like that's in the cards anymore. Might as well just go into development mode and see what happens.

I'm not even that far from thinking they should just blow it up and rebuild again. Of all the high draft picks we had and all the trades we made....a guy that we signed with our last few bucks at the end of free agency is our best player? That's a sad state of affairs.

Vlade is the king of completely whiffing on the franchise changing talent while scoring on attaining complimentary role players. The problem is that there's no talent for them to compliment so we're forever stuck in purgatory.

Might as well just give Bagley the minutes. If anything, to boost his trade value.

 

[twslam07]

I don’t blame Vlade for signing good veteran role players now because they can all still grow with the core. The reality is, our potential star is in his 3rd season and needs to take the wheel NOW. Our 3rd level “star” is in his 4th year, Harrison and Bogi are in their prime. Bagley is the big question mark. The Fox we saw in the 4th is the one we need on a nightly basis. Coach needs to hand him the keys and get everyone else out of the way. Drive and dish to Buddy and Barnes. Alley oops to Bagley and Holmes. Keep it simple, get back to the defense we saw while they were all out.

I blame him. It’s an unnecessary risk locking up your cap space in guys like Dedmon, Joseph, Ariza, and Barnes (to a lesser extent) when your two star potential players are 20 & 21.

The cap space should have been used for salary dump deals to acquire more picks and assets.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again...keep the payroll flexible (rookie deals & expirings), flexible and be in the business of asset collection until you KNOW that you have found your stars. We definitely don’t know if Bagley will ever be a star and Fox still has work to do if he wants to get to a star level.

Vlade went all-in with a 10, jack, & queen after the flop hoping that a king (Fox) & ace (Bagley) would turn up on the turn and river. It wasn’t a smart play then and it’s not looking like we’re going to get lucky now.

 

[tyguy]

So there’s no hope is essentially what you’re saying?

Look you don’t need to walk me through Vlade’s draft history. I’m well aware of it, but you’re acting like there’s a 0% chance Vlade is going to draft a star player. You know that’s not true. There’s always a chance.

 

[Albatros]

I think I'm on board with twslam these days. Earlier in the season I was all about getting wins and fighting for the last two playoff spots but at this point it doesn't look like that's in the cards anymore. Might as well just go into development mode and see what happens.

I'm not even that far from thinking they should just blow it up and rebuild again. Of all the high draft picks we had and all the trades we made....a guy that we signed with our last few bucks at the end of free agency is our best player? That's a sad state of affairs.

Vlade is the king of completely whiffing on the franchise changing talent while scoring on attaining complimentary role players. The problem is that there's no talent for them to compliment so we're forever stuck in purgatory.

Might as well just give Bagley the minutes. If anything, to boost his trade value.

The more people see of him the less likely they are to wish to trade for him.

I see his dad has been on Instagram today saying it's "absolutely" time to "panic" replying to someone's post.

 

[Turgenev]

I like MBIII. I don't really care if he's not a finished product. He's a young kid that plays for the Kings. He does lots of things on the court that are exciting that others on this team can't/don't do and there are several reasons to think he will keep getting better. Watching how players and teams put it together is half the fun of sports. Luke Walton has several extra tools to use now that MBIII and Fox are back from injury and I'm sure he will figure it out.

 

[Cojc]

I hope but it’s a far glimmer of hope at this time.

 

[ppine]

I like MBIII. I don't really care if he's not a finished product. He's a young kid that plays for the Kings. He does lots of things on the court that are exciting that others on this team can't/don't do and there are several reasons to think he will keep getting better. Watching how players and teams put it together is half the fun of sports. Luke Walton has several extra tools to use now that MBIII and Fox are back from injury and I'm sure he will figure it out.

Its good to be an optimist.

 

[Kingster]

I can really see that panic has set in. This thread proves it. If we didn't have Walton, Divac, Barnes, Ariza and Cojo, I'd be worried about the team falling apart in a myriad of ways. I'm not concerned. Bagley is going to be an All Star. Stay the course. It's all going to be just fine.

 

[tyguy]

I can really see that panic has set in. This thread proves it. If we didn't have Walton, Divac, Barnes, Ariza and Cojo, I'd be worried about the team falling apart in a myriad of ways. I'm not concerned. Bagley is going to be an All Star. Stay the course. It's all going to be just fine.

What makes everybody so sure that Bagley is going to be a star? I don't get this optimism like it's a foregone conclusion.

 

[Artur91]

the current 8th seed in western conference is Portland (14-17) so there's still PO chances, remember this team started 0-5....
For me the real problem is this team still hasn´t figured out how too play together and what kind of basketball they should be playing, and that's on Walton. Giving clear ideas about how you(Walton) wants to play is key when you have a young core like the kings.

and about Marvin, I expect that someday he will be a player that makes this team better, because right now he doesnt make this team better when he is on court.


And ofcours if Luka played for us, we prob been discussing if either we will be hosting first round PO series lol. so no comparison is needed we got what we got and so we need to live with it, since Marvin is our player wish him the best.

 

[tyguy]

the current 8th seed in western conference is Portland (14-17) so there's still PO chances, remember this team started 0-5....
For me the real problem is this team still hasn´t figured out how too play together and what kind of basketball they should be playing, and that's on Walton. Giving clear ideas about how you(Walton) wants to play is key when you have a young core like the kings.

and about Marvin, I expect that someday he will be a player that makes this team better, because right now he doesnt make this team better when he is on court.


And ofcours if Luka played for us, we prob been discussing if either we will be hosting first round PO series lol. so no comparison is needed we got what we got and so we need to live with it, since Marvin is our player wish him the best.

I would focus less on record and more on differential. We have enough games under our belt at this point to filter out the small sample size and we are currently rocking a -2.95 srs which puts us at around 30-33 wins and comfortably out of the playoff picture.

 

[Kingster]

What makes everybody so sure that Bagley is going to be a star? I don't get this optimism like it's a foregone conclusion.

That's because you're looking at a handful of games. I'm looking at his God-given ability. I also can remember the distant past - one year ago - when a 19 year old made a big positive impact on the team's performance.

 

[Artur91]

I would focus less on record and more on differential. We have enough games under our belt at this point to filter out the small sample size and we are currently rocking a -2.95 srs which puts us at around 30-33 wins and comfortably out of the playoff picture.

I know that, the record thing was to make people realise that we aint that bad overall. The main point was that we needed a team identity to figured out how we need to play. right now if we dont make a good run. we gotta end up within your prediction. and a good run wont happen if you dont have a clear idea about what you have to do on court.
last 4 games been awful in defense and in offense sometimes they looked like headless chickend running around, or pass the ball to buddy and he bricked with 20 seconds remaining on the clock with a contested shoot.

that kind of thing bother me the most

 

[Artur91]

That's because you're looking at a handful of games. I'm looking at his God-given ability. I also can remember the distant past - one year ago - when a 19 year old made a big positive impact on the team's performance.

no offense but Marvin's best ability right now is his age (20) so he can improve, cuz besides that he has no ability at all

 

[The Effort Police]

I think I'm on board with twslam these days. Earlier in the season I was all about getting wins and fighting for the last two playoff spots but at this point it doesn't look like that's in the cards anymore. Might as well just go into development mode and see what happens.

I'm not even that far from thinking they should just blow it up and rebuild again. Of all the high draft picks we had and all the trades we made....a guy that we signed with our last few bucks at the end of free agency is our best player? That's a sad state of affairs.

Vlade is the king of completely whiffing on the franchise changing talent while scoring on attaining complimentary role players. The problem is that there's no talent for them to compliment so we're forever stuck in purgatory.

Might as well just give Bagley the minutes. If anything, to boost his trade value.

I'd trade him ASAP because he still might have some trade value. If we wait until the end of the year, he might go full Okafor. ATM, I think Chicago might go for a swap of one of their young bigs.

 

[Kings_of_California]

Some people were saying he was sulking on the bench last night. My concern is that things could (maybe) turn sour before the coaches really get a chance to develop him. I could easily see his dad starting to chime in on Twitter or whatever platform, and then Marvin making one negative comment that just starts a downward spiral.

God I hope this doesn't happen. We need him to be great to move the franchise forward.

 

[tyguy]

That's because you're looking at a handful of games. I'm looking at his God-given ability. I also can remember the distant past - one year ago - when a 19 year old made a big positive impact on the team's performance.

I'm looking at his 1759 career minutes and it isn't adding up.

 

[Kingster]

I'm looking at his 1759 career minutes and it isn't adding up.

How well did you do in math?

 

[fnordius]

I like MBIII... He's a young kid that plays for the Kings.

I do too, and that's despite not having any certainty as to how he's going to come out as a player. I think his dad's really annoying, but he's not to blame for that. I question his GM's competence, but that's not his fault either. He's just a kid who wanted to play basketball in Sac. If he were a late pick, all we'd be arguing about was when/if he was ready for minutes, but he automatically gets compared to Doncic instead, enraging people about his opportunity cost. As long as he seems to be trying to improve, I have no problem with the kid. I see being riled at Vlade as a whole different thing.