The Hope and Non-hope: SoS and H/A

[Bricklayer]

we are 11-22, of late we have confused everybody by beating the league's best teams, and then turning around and losing to some of the league's lesser lights. We are about to embark on what looks like a brutal road heavy January...but the thing is, our whole season has been brutal. To whit:

NBA Strength of Schedule through Jan. 9, by Opponent Win%
SAC .551
UTH .546
TOR .541 <-- only East team in top 15!
MEM .531
MIN .523
NOP .519
SAN .517
OKC .517
LAC .517
HOU .515
DAL .515
LAL .511
PHX .510
GSW .510
DEN .504
ORL .504
POR .498 (lowest of all Western teams, interesting implications for their 2nd half of season)
NJN .498
NYK .489
IND .487
DET .484
PHI .482
CLE .482
CHI .481
BOS .477
CHA .473
MIA .473
ATL .468
WSH .467
MIL .458

And the joke is that having already played the toughest slate of teams in the NBA, NOW we get an even more brutal stretch. Maybe stretching just long enough to keep Boogie out of the All Star game actually. On the other hand, that would seemingly set us up for the classic second half of the year bad team run building enthusiasm for next year while blowing draft position. Note however, that in the Western Conference this year an "average" strength of schedule looks to be about .517 or so, while the East is closer to .484. So while ours should eventually get much easier in Feb/March/April, it should only balance down by about 30-35 points, not the 50 points a .551 strength of schedule indicates.


On the other hand:

NBA Home/Away Splits as of Jan. 9
SAC 20/13 +7
MEM 19/15 +4
HOU 20/16 +4
MIA 19/16 +3
CHA 19/17 +2
SAS 19/17 +2
OKC 18/17 +1
ORL 18/17 +1
NJN 18/17 +1
CLE 18/17 +1
IND 18/17 +1
CHI 17/16 +1
LAC 19/19 +0
DAL 18/18 +0
BOS 18/18 +0
ATL 18/18 +0
POR 18/18 +0
DET 18/18 +0
LAL 18/18 +0
NYK 17/17 +0
PHX 17/17 +0
DEN 17/17 +0
MIN 17/18 -1
MIL 16/18 -2
PHI 16/19 -3
UTH 17/20 -3
WSH 15/18 -3
NOP 15/19 -4
TOR 15/19 -4
GSW 15/23 -8 (watch out 2nd half of the year)

So a strange pair of events to say the least. The very toughest SOS in the league paired with the very easiest H/A split in the league. Oh, and we're also tied for the fewest games played in the league with 33 (surely you have noticed all these odd long breaks between games in the early season), meaning we are going to play a lot of games in the second half of the season, and meaning that we will have even more chance to move our win% around than will teams like the Clippers or Warriors who have already played 38 games and are more locked in.

 

[Kingster]

So if past is prologue, the schedule will get much easier and the Kings will lose even more. I really don't think the schedule is a major factor, at least in terms of competition. The Kings are playing against themselves moreso than the competition. It's largely about self-discipline, maturity and teamwork with this team. And speaking of teamwork, the item that intrigued me most in your post: the compression of a number of games in a short period of time. That means there is not only going to be less rest time, but also less coaching time. This young group needs all the coaching it can get.

 

[jcwkings]

Its going to be tough, not to mention we will most likely see another shuffle of players before the trade deadline, meaning another 2 week period for the team to even show some form of chemistry. In the end this season will be remembered for the emergence of Cousins as a legit force and hopefully seeing some light at the end of the tunnel as far as roster pieces for the long haul.

 

[KingMilz]

If anything the fact we are playing good teams is a great thing for three reasons

1# They are less likely to take us serious
2# We always get up to play the good teams outside one blowout loss to GSW we have fought till the bitter end against the really good teams
3# Nothing like going up against the better teams to test yourself

To top it all off as long as Cousins/Gay/IT keep improving chemistry and we actually develop Derrick Williams nothing else at this point really matters.

We are 7-12 against teams currently 500+. One of those losses came without Cuz and 5 of the 12 losses were razor close games we could have won. Since Rudy came we are 4 wins 4 losses against the good teams of the NBA.

 

[upinsmoke]

The perfect tank lose to the -500 teams and beat the title contenders to keep the old barn kicking.

 

[jcwkings]

Does anyone know what our record is vs losing/bad teams?

 

[Npliam]

This has been an interesting scheduling year for the 2 teams I follow. On the one hand you had to play a bunch of good teams on the other hand there were lots and lots of home games and lots of rest in between. It think it sets up nicely for a young team learning to be competitive but unfortunatly for the Kings, they didn't really take advantage of the home games.

 

[Andriod_KiNg]

I still don't see the point of trying to win is right now. I know people claim that we are trying to build chemistry but I think its pointless until all the dust settles with all the trades. This is one of the best drafts in years and it would be a shame we miss out because we are playing at .500 (aka treadmill ball).

 

[Npliam]

I still don't see the point of trying to win is right now. I know people claim that we are trying to build chemistry but I think its pointless until all the dust settles with all the trades. This is one of the best drafts in years and it would be a shame we miss out because we are playing at .500 (aka treadmill ball).

You have to start winning to be a contender. There are almost no championship teams that don't have a long history of learning how to win in the years previous to their championship.

 

[Bosnian Diehard]

You have to start winning to be a contender. There are almost no championship teams that don't have a long history of learning how to win in the years previous to their championship.

Unless a blockbuster trade happens, I dont see us winning the championship in the 2015-16 season. But that's just me.

 

[VF21]

I still don't see the point of trying to win is right now. I know people claim that we are trying to build chemistry but I think its pointless until all the dust settles with all the trades. This is one of the best drafts in years and it would be a shame we miss out because we are playing at .500 (aka treadmill ball).

How many games do you attend? Right now, a prime consideration especially in the light of a potential arena vote - although that may be going away - is that people have to be willing to support the team. Die-hard fans are one thing; people who just see wins and losses are another. They're the ones who will vote for the arena.They want an exciting, entertaining team to watch. That means occasionally beating the good teams.

Demarcus Cousins doesn't want to hear about the coming draft. NO PLAYER DOES. They want to play and they want to win. We still aren't going to win a lot of games because we still aren't that good. But we're going to win enough to keep the momentum building in the right direction.

I don't see why people are so wrapped up in the argument that we're going to miss out on a good draft pick. You say it's the best draft in years - there will be players available fairly deep. So, what are we missing out on? The worst record does not guarantee the best pick. Period.

We have lost twice as many games as we have won. We aren't going to make the playoffs. Well, we could but if we did it would take a streak unseen in the history of the NBA and the total collapse of about four teams.

I'll give you some advice - although I know you probably won't take it. ENJOY what you're seeing right now. There will be a time when DFC is talked about as one of the greatest to play the game and you'll be able to say you were there as a Kings fan at the beginning, and you saw how it all started to really come together. Instead of worrying about a bird in the bush, cherish the bird in the hand. DFC is a certainty. Every single player in the 2014 draft is nothing more than a potential at this point.

 

[Npliam]

You usually have to be a winning team for several years before you have a shot at a championship. The kings need to start learning how to win.

 

[VF21]

Unless a blockbuster trade happens, I dont see us winning the championship in the 2015-16 season. But that's just me.

He said "in the yearS" previous to their championship. I'll tell you the same thing I told Andriod King. Enjoy this ride while it's on the way up. It'll go by all too quickly and you'll wonder why you didn't if you don't.

 

[randymoss1881]

I still don't see the point of trying to win is right now. I know people claim that we are trying to build chemistry but I think its pointless until all the dust settles with all the trades. This is one of the best drafts in years and it would be a shame we miss out because we are playing at .500 (aka treadmill ball).

I didn't see the point if it either until we got Gay. With Gay/DMC we have our 1/2 scorers, DMC looking to be a franchise center and Gay being a star. If we are winning because those 2 have great chemistry than that is great, we wouldn't need a wiggins or parker. In this draft drafting 6-9 isn't bad there's still quality guys you can get.

To fill out the rest of the team around DMC/Gay you need players that know there role. Barkley always talks about you need some guys to be the dirty workers that's why the knicks never contend. We can draft WCS somewhere between 7-8
(or trade the pick and JT for Larry Sanders) then we need to find a way to get a starting PG that can defend. The bench then would be landry/DWill/IT with Acy bringing in energy for 10min, that is a top 5 bench.

Startersg/Ben/Gay/DMC/Sanders
That would give DMC/gay most of the shots while Ben/sanders play defense and do the dirty work. As long as DMC can average 25-12-3 and gay stays at 18-6-2 we could be contenders in 2-3 years.

 

[jalfa]

You usually have to be a winning team for several years before you have a shot at a championship. The kings need to start learning how to win.

dunno, outside of Dirk's Mavs from a few years ago, pretty much all of the recent championship teams broke onto the scene and won almost instantly. the Heat had their free agent haul but were pretty bad before. the Lakers were pretty irrelevant before they were gifted Gasol. the Celtics were unbelievably horrible (tanking even) and won a championship the next season. the Spurs core were almost all immediate champions (can't forget that Ginobili was a rookie and Parker a soph, when they won their second chip).

the real common denominator seems to be having a franchise player ready for championship contention and pairing said franchise player with the right dude/dudes. plus, a really good coach appears to be of help.

 

[Mass]

dunno, outside of Dirk's Mavs from a few years ago, pretty much all of the recent championship teams broke onto the scene and won almost instantly. the Heat had their free agent haul but were pretty bad before. the Lakers were pretty irrelevant before they were gifted Gasol. the Celtics were unbelievably horrible (tanking even) and won a championship the next season. the Spurs core were almost all immediate champions (can't forget that Ginobili was a rookie and Parker a soph, when they won their second chip).

the real common denominator seems to be having a franchise player ready for championship contention and pairing said franchise player with the right dude/dudes. plus, a really good coach appears to be of help.

Well, I don't really agree with you here. Heat and Celtics became instant contenders because they were able to create a big 3 over the summer. The C's got KG and Allen and the Heat Bosh and Lebron. This is not the way we are going to be able to build a team. We don't have the assets to trade for two all-stars like KG and Allen and for sure we are not going to sign superstar FAs. Then you mention the Lakers. Gasol was traded in 2008, and that year the Lakers lost in the Finals against the Celtics. The 2 years before, LA had winning records and lost in the first round of the playoffs. They only had a bad year, which was in 04/05. So, they have never been as bad as we are, and they actually had 3 winning season and a lost final before they won their last 2 championships.
San Antonio...they have never really been bad. When they drafted Duncan they had a really bad year due to the injury of David Robinson. That was the only losing year the Spurs have had since 88/89... So, this was a team that knew how to win games, and before their first championship they made the playoffs in 8 of the previous 9 seasons.

This is why I believe Npliam is right. You have to be a winning team for several years before being a contender. Especially if you are building on young players, like we are doing, and not trading for superstars who already know how to do it. The Kings have a specific path to follow. They first have to start winning regular season games. Then having a winning season. Reaching the playoffs. Start winning in the playoffs. Make a run in the PO. Then, just then, we can start talking about contending. That's why I'm sure we won't be a contender in 2 or 3 years. It's more a 4-5 years project, and it would be good enough to have good chances to keep DMC after his actual contract.

 

[jalfa]

Well, I don't really agree with you here. Heat and Celtics became instant contenders because they were able to create a big 3 over the summer. The C's got KG and Allen and the Heat Bosh and Lebron. This is not the way we are going to be able to build a team. We don't have the assets to trade for two all-stars like KG and Allen and for sure we are not going to sign superstar FAs. Then you mention the Lakers. Gasol was traded in 2008, and that year the Lakers lost in the Finals against the Celtics. The 2 years before, LA had winning records and lost in the first round of the playoffs. They only had a bad year, which was in 04/05. So, they have never been as bad as we are, and they actually had 3 winning season and a lost final before they won their last 2 championships.
San Antonio...they have never really been bad. When they drafted Duncan they had a really bad year due to the injury of David Robinson. That was the only losing year the Spurs have had since 88/89... So, this was a team that knew how to win games, and before their first championship they made the playoffs in 8 of the previous 9 seasons.

This is why I believe Npliam is right. You have to be a winning team for several years before being a contender. Especially if you are building on young players, like we are doing, and not trading for superstars who already know how to do it. The Kings have a specific path to follow. They first have to start winning regular season games. Then having a winning season. Reaching the playoffs. Start winning in the playoffs. Make a run in the PO. Then, just then, we can start talking about contending. That's why I'm sure we won't be a contender in 2 or 3 years. It's more a 4-5 years project, and it would be good enough to have good chances to keep DMC after his actual contract.

my point really only is that you don't have to start winning games now, if you're worried about contending 3-4 years down the road, especially not if you're not convinced that the guys that are here now will be the ones to take you there. I don't believe in talented players becoming losers. put them in the right situation, coach them the right way and they'll instantly become winners. timetables of steps you have to take before winning a championship, thus, seem suspect to me at best. this team is at least one piece (namely, a defensive anchor) away from doing any real damage anyway, so I don't really care all that much for winning lots of games right now. especially considering the dearth of assets that this team has, keeping the value of the pick up doesn't seem to be a bad idea, what the team ends up doing with it is a completely different matter.

for the record, I'm not rooting for losses (seems superfluous at this point, anyway), but I'm not getting upset over them either and certainly don't see any great need to win this season.

 

[Gilles]

Well, Pierce was rapidly getting a reputation of a player, who was getting some PO success only due to extremely weak Conference, and was losing decisively, when all he had were youngsters and scrubs.
Wade-led Miami became mediocre after Shaq left.

 

[Hadlowe]

I'm not worried at all about the draft this year. The Kings defense is bad enough that we're going to get plenty of ping pong balls and should be able to get someone in the top ten.

Like VF21 said, enjoy the ride right now. I watch the games that I can to see Cousins develop and to see chemistry between he and Gay and some of the bench.

 

[Chubbs]

At this point, it's about the team, whatever will be left after the trade deadline, getting used to each other. And the coach getting used to being a head coach and all that involves.

To me, we are almost an expansion franchise in many ways. Rudy and DFC being very obvious ways in which we diverge dramatically. But as far as there being a winning culture, or even a culture which is not completely toxic and holding the team back, the kings in 2014 are not there yet. And it may not happen for awhile either. Off the court, we are making dramatic improvements. No denying that, but it's still brand new and inexperienced in the FO. On the court may be the last place we see real sustained improvement. We are a Jekyll and Hyde team, even within the same game.

No one has any idea what team will show up the next two games against the bottom of the eastern conference. Not the players, the owners, the coach. Do we have momentum after the Portland game, or was it all lost in that bizarro world 4th quarter? 89 points?!

Step 1 to growing is taking care of the home court. These next two games will be very interesting. Then a rough rough road trip that could derail whatever is gained in the next two. But if we don't have a strong showing these next two, watch out below. Hard to see what will surely be an even more dysfunctional team (losing to the Magic or Cavs would surely involve some off/on the court meltdowns like against the bornets) going on a six game trip and having much success without some momentum to build on. And I'm not even talking wins and losses.

As for SOS and H/A at this point, SOS tends to be higher for the bad teams, cause every team they play has a better record. That said, our schedule has been tough, but it's also been very relaxed. But with the turmoil caused by multiple trades, we couldn't take advantage.

I can see this team going on one of those late season ping pong ball limiting runs, especially after looking at the late season schedule. If that happens, there's nothing stopping this team from trading up in the draft. That's where this asset collection will give us some power. The momentum for next season would be worth it either way. And as fans, that ping pong ball silver lining only cuts it for so long. Winning is just better.

Like the lady preached about a thousand times behind me at the bornets game, "Play together guys!" The rest will take care of itself.