The direction of the Carter/Randolph signings

[Larry David]

I expect the pick next year to be 10-14.

Wait, wut??????

Despite the spin, the Kings didn't "tank unit at least January. They just lost a lot of game because they are bad. Hell, they aren't really tanking that hard now (in fact, there is a thread on that).

I doubt the Kings are going to sign free agent(s) that materially impact wins. I get why folks are excited only a handful of teams have cap space, but that was essentially the status quo for many years in the 90s and 00s it typically didn't the Kings anywhere with free agents most years. 20 years ago, Vlade was desperate enough to play in CA that he took the money. Most recently, George Hill took a shot and they almost had to take all sharp implements away from based upon what time on the Kings did to him. That seems like something the free agents might notice and consider.

Unless the Kings strongly defy math, I don't see them drafting a player that makes them 8-10 games better.

Fox and some players will mature. They will be better. But, so will a lot of teams in the bottom 1/3 of the league.

I think the Kings will be among the worst 5 teams in the league.

At least 4-5 teams will tank each year? Probably not any more. You know why 5-6 teams tank each year, because the odds are pretty juicy at 1-4 and death an 6-8. 6-8 is the worst, right now. Your odds of getting one of the top 3 picks are just horrible. So, you aren't getting a top guy in the draft and you aren't close enough to the playoffs to keep your fans interested. So teams tank out of that spot.

You know what gets a lot better next year? Spots 5-8. They draw for 4 spots not 3. They reduced the odds at the top and distributed those odds into the middle. Suddenly 5-8 isn't so bad. You don't have to be abysmal to have respectable odds at a top 5 pick, and being abysmal doesn't provide you really strong odds of falling back to picking 5-7.

So, I think the Kings will be really bad next year and have good odds at sending a high pick to Boston.

But, in the irony of all ironies, if they end up in 7th place again, the odds are the best in years they STILL convey a top 4 pick to Boston.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I think Vlade had the mindset of acquiring assets through bad contract trades this year but no teams were willing to bite. There were plenty of rumors that they were looking for draft picks when trying to find a home for Hill but that didn't happen so I'm guessing the offers weren't out there.

I can't remember all the trades that went down but I don't remember any first round picks being swapped this year at the deadline. I think teams are valuing them higher than they did in years past.

I can’t say what Vlade’s plans were, but I do think we as fans tend to overestimate the availability of deals where the other side would be willing to give up an asset to dump a bad contract. The Nets/Raptors deal to dump Carroll is the only one I recall from last summer. That may change this summer, with the salary cap staying relatively flat, but I do wonder if suggestions that the Kings just save space to “rent” out (a strategy I generally agree with) assume too much. It always takes two.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Teams are still going to tank because it's about securing the worst possible outcome not odds at the best. The odds of drafting 1st for the first four slots may be the same but I'd sure want to insure I picked no worse than 5th than no worse than 8th.

And yeah, I do think if we are hovering around the 5 mark right now we could improve 5 more slots just by virtue of keeping the same coach, playstyle, not turning over a lot of players, etc. Odds are we only add one FA and our draft pick next year. Giles and Shump will be new to the floor but will have had plenty of time with the coach and system by the time they take the floor.

I don't think we'll sniff the playoffs but I think we'll see the exact type of marginal improvement that this team tends to make that infuriates everyone when we do own our pick.

 

[Larry David]

Uhhhhh, the odds play a huge role in the likelihood of the outcomes. Not the other way around. And those odds change in a material way this summer.

And the odds for the first 4 aren’t the same.

Paragraph one seems off

I disagree with how much we improve as well but think that is debatable and turns on variables that are tbd

 

[pdxKingsFan]

My understanding of the big changes that will stop tanking next year are that spots 1-4 have an equal opportunity of getting the top pick.

However, the other part of tanking, is the part that you guarantee, which is by virtue of the worst record you pick no worse than 4th, 2nd = no worse than 5th, etc. Yeah you are playing odds, but you're also banking on the sure thing as well as how much you think that whatever minimum player you'd land is actually worth destroying a season over.

As others have said, the teams don't exist in a vacuum and have to keep their paying customers happy. Fact: I haven't bought league pass in 12 years now. I'd have a hard time keeping season tickets with this level of ineptitude.

 

[24 rick barry]

I can’t say what Vlade’s plans were, but I do think we as fans tend to overestimate the availability of deals where the other side would be willing to give up an asset to dump a bad contract. The Nets/Raptors deal to dump Carroll is the only one I recall from last summer. That may change this summer, with the salary cap staying relatively flat, but I do wonder if suggestions that the Kings just save space to “rent” out (a strategy I generally agree with) assume too much. It always takes two.

I think what you are missing again is the fact that if you are under the cap, a team a can "a dumped player included alongside an asset" and the other trading team does not have to take anything back. Like the trade with Philly for Landry, Thompson and Staukus for our future first round and a pick exchange. This can be very important to a team that needs a bit more to get over the hump.

 

[24 rick barry]

I think Vlade had the mindset of acquiring assets through bad contract trades this year but no teams were willing to bite. There were plenty of rumors that they were looking for draft picks when trying to find a home for Hill but that didn't happen so I'm guessing the offers weren't out there.

I can't remember all the trades that went down but I don't remember any first round picks being swapped this year at the deadline. I think teams are valuing them higher than they did in years past.

WRONG AGAIN

Sources: #Rockets quietly gauging league-wide interest in F Ryan Anderson ahead of Thursday’s deadline. Anderson is in the second year of a 4-year, $80million deal.
— Kelly Iko (@KellyIkoNBA) February 5, 2018​

This is certainly the script every time the team reaches the trade deadline with Anderson‘s contract. I think with the fact that he’s trying to move him, it acknowledges that he made a mistake in signing him to that much money. But at the time, the league just received a overpowering flow of cash its way and quite honestly, he had to give those money bags to somebody.
Also take a look at some additional insight from Rob and R.G. on the Houston Sports Talk pod, my favorite:

In my opinion, the luckiest beneficiary of the league’s salary cap increases has certainly been Anderson. Although he’s quite a likeable guy — he has proved that he’s a one-trick pony, offering very little outside of his three-point shooting. He still quite good at it — he’s currently shooting 37.9 percent from three but it’s a concerning regression from 40.3 percent in 2016-17.
He’s non-existent on defense, inconsistent on the boards so when one is in the expected position of being a Stretch Four, what exact value does he provide to the team outside of his best trait? That’s going to make him quite difficult to move and I DON’T see it happening by the trade deadline.


IF YOU WERE 20 MILLION UNDER THE SALARY CAP THEN YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB HIS BAD CONTRACT AND THE ROCKETS WOULD NOT HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER ONE OF OUR BAD PLAYERS BACK. they WOULD ALO BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO GET LEBRON NEXT YEAR. IN RETURN, THEY WOULD GIVE US ASSETS/CHIPS/PICKS WHATEVER YOU CALL IT. bUT APPARENTLY, VLADE DOESN'T CALL IT. AND THAT IS WHY I THINK OUR MANAGMENT IS SADLY TO SAY, INEPT.

 

[pdxKingsFan]

Houston's first may as well be a second rounder with a guarantee. You seriously want to take on Anderson's deal for that? That's nuts. That is the kind of deal that kills teams.

 

[ESP47]

WRONG AGAIN

Sources: #Rockets quietly gauging league-wide interest in F Ryan Anderson ahead of Thursday’s deadline. Anderson is in the second year of a 4-year, $80million deal.​

— Kelly Iko (@KellyIkoNBA) February 5, 2018​

This is certainly the script every time the team reaches the trade deadline withAnderson‘s contract. I think with the fact that he’s trying to move him, it acknowledges that he made a mistake in signing him to that much money. But at the time, the league just received a overpowering flow of cash its way and quite honestly, he had to give those money bags to somebody.
Also take a look at some additional insight from Rob and R.G. on the Houston Sports Talk pod, my favorite:

In my opinion, the luckiest beneficiary of the league’s salary cap increases has certainly been Anderson. Although he’s quite a likeable guy — he has proved that he’s a one-trick pony, offering very little outside of his three-point shooting. He still quite good at it — he’s currently shooting 37.9 percent from three but it’s a concerning regression from 40.3 percent in 2016-17.
He’s non-existent on defense, inconsistent on the boards so when one is in the expected position of being a Stretch Four, what exact value does he provide to the team outside of his best trait? That’s going to make him quite difficult to move and I DON’T see it happening by the trade deadline.


IF YOU WERE 20 MILLION UNDER THE SALARY CAP THEN YOU WOULD BE ABLE TO ABSORB HIS BAD CONTRACT AND THE ROCKETS WOULD NOT HAVE TO TAKE ANOTHER ONE OF OUR BAD PLAYERS BACK. they WOULD ALO BE IN A BETTER POSITION TO GET LEBRON NEXT YEAR. IN RETURN, THEY WOULD GIVE US ASSETS/CHIPS/PICKS WHATEVER YOU CALL IT. bUT APPARENTLY, VLADE DOESN'T CALL IT. AND THAT IS WHY I THINK OUR MANAGMENT IS SADLY TO SAY, INEPT.

What exactly would Houston give us? The 30th pick in the draft and a couple of 60th picks in the draft?

Which players do you want from Houston? They aren't giving up Harden, Paul or Capela. Probably aren't giving up Eric Gordon either.

So you're looking at Ariza, Mbah a Moute, Tucker, Nene, Tarik Black etc.

You seem overly confident about this theoretical trade proposition without even thinking about how Houston's tradeable assets are either not very valuable (draft picks) or useless to the Kings (old role players).

 

[24 rick barry]

Houston's first may as well be a second rounder with a guarantee. You seriously want to take on Anderson's deal for that? That's nuts. That is the kind of deal that kills teams.

Your way-let's continue to add 12 mill z-bo and 8 mill carter. How's that mentor thing working out? How many wins do we have? Are we building around these guys for the future?

my way-THEY WOULD GIVE US ASSETS/CHIPS/PICKS. For instance, would you take 2 numbers ones from HOuston? What if they offered a number one and Clint Capela?


also funny is this

Source: Kings still in mix for free agent Ryan Anderson

By James Ham July 01, 2016 4:15 PM


I think you're a guy that says no to everything and must like be outside the playoffs for some 12 years where over 50% make the playoffs so why don't we just keep doing the things the same way.

 

[LPKingsFan]

I think what you are missing again is the fact that if you are under the cap, a team a can "a dumped player included alongside an asset" and the other trading team does not have to take anything back. Like the trade with Philly for Landry, Thompson and Staukus for our future first round and a pick exchange. This can be very important to a team that needs a bit more to get over the hump.

"Missing again"? What did I miss before?

I absolutely understand the notion that cap space means you can absorb a contract outright. In fact, that's what I was referring to by "renting out" our cap space (again, a strategy I've advocated here ever since Presti got two firsts for taking on Kurt Thomas' deal).

My point was more that such deals happen less often than one would think. My guess is that teams haven't been willing to offer a decent enough incentive. There was only one Carroll dump, as it was. I will freely admit that I may have missed others, however!

 

[pdxKingsFan]

If we had signed Anderson for 4 years to a 20+ million deal in 2016 I'd be on the fire Vlade train.

 

[VF21]

Your way-let's continue to add 12 mill z-bo and 8 mill carter. How's that mentor thing working out? How many wins do we have? Are we building around these guys for the future?

my way-THEY WOULD GIVE US ASSETS/CHIPS/PICKS. For instance, would you take 2 numbers ones from HOuston? What if they offered a number one and Clint Capela?

I don't think "mentor" means what you think it means.

Also, you don't need to put everything in caps. It's not going to make your argument any more solid. And one more thing? Why on earth would the Kings want to help the Rockets get LeBron, which s basically what your entire argument seems to boil down to.

 

[24 rick barry]

If we had signed Anderson for 4 years to a 20+ million deal in 2016 I'd be on the fire Vlade train.

From my source, Vlade offered even more to Anderson for 4 years but was turned down.

 

[24 rick barry]

I don't think "mentor" means what you think it means.

Also, you don't need to put everything in caps. It's not going to make your argument any more solid. And one more thing? Why on earth would the Kings want to help the Rockets get LeBron, which s basically what your entire argument seems to boil down to.

did you miss this part of my post...

my way-THEY WOULD GIVE US ASSETS/CHIPS/PICKS. For instance, would you take 2 numbers ones from HOuston? What if they offered a number one and Clint Capela?

 

[pdxKingsFan]

would you take 2 numbers ones from HOuston?

The cost of two 25-30 picks in the draft is nowhere near swallowing a Ryan Anderson deal.

Not to mention that would devastate any chances we have next year.

 

[VF21]

did you miss this part of my post...

my way-THEY WOULD GIVE US ASSETS/CHIPS/PICKS. For instance, would you take 2 numbers ones from HOuston? What if they offered a number one and Clint Capela?

I read quite well, thank you.

You say "2 number ones" which is incredibly misleading. You mean two first round picks, which is demonstrably different as pdxkingsfan has pointed out.

I still say you're just trying to find a way to facilitate Houston being able to put in a viable offer for LeBron. The Kings are not going to help them in that regard, nor should they.

One last thing? More a kind of word of advice? Making vague assertions based on some unnamed "source" that you have generally isn't worth the keystrokes it takes for you to type them.

 

[24 rick barry]

I read quite well, thank you.

You say "2 number ones" which is incredibly misleading. You mean two first round picks, which is demonstrably different as pdxkingsfan has pointed out.

I still say you're just trying to find a way to facilitate Houston being able to put in a viable offer for LeBron. The Kings are not going to help them in that regard, nor should they.

One last thing? More a kind of word of advice? Making vague assertions based on some unnamed "source" that you have generally isn't worth the keystrokes it takes for you to type them.

Did you say "Vague Assertions"

Rockets' Anderson: Turning down Kings 'hardest decision of my life'

By James Ham November 25, 2016 5:47 PM



SACRAMENTO -- The story was too good to be true. An NBA team with a boatload of cash to spend in free agency. A hometown kid looking to come back to his roots.
And then nothing.
The stars were aligned for Sacramento’s own Ryan Anderson to sign a mega-deal with the Kings this summer. There was mutual interest and even conversations. But in the end, the high-scoring forward chose to sign with the Houston Rockets on a 4-year, $80 million deal.
“Man, it really was the hardest decision of my life,” Anderson told CSN California of the choice to sign with Houston. “Obviously, there are so many factors that go into free agency. For me, I was praying like crazy, like, where am I supposed to be, give me a clue or sign.”
When it was all said and done, Houston was the last man standing. He considers the Rockets a great fit for him and he’s happy with the way things worked out.
“I grew up loving this team, cherishing this team, there is still a bit of that purple blood in my veins,” Anderson said. “I love this team. In no way was it a form of disrespect to the team and the organization.”
The Rockets are further along in their development as a team than the Kings are, which was appealing to Anderson. They’ve made the playoffs in each of the last four seasons, including a run to the Western Conference Finals during the 2014-15 season.
Anderson credits his love for the Kings as one of the main reasons he made it to the league.
“Growing up here in Sacramento, it was a golden ticket to come to a Kings game,” Anderson said. “My parents saw the value in that. There’s a chance I might not even be playing basketball if I didn’t get to grow up watching the Kings and loving basketball so much.”
Anderson won a state championship at Arco Arena playing for Oak Ridge high school, before heading to Berkeley to play his college ball. The 28-year-old sharpshooter still has family in the area, including his parents and sister. For the first time in years, he was able to make it home for the Thanksgiving holiday.
After years of playing against the Kings at Arco/Power Balance Pavilion/Sleep Train Arena, this is Anderson’s first trip to Golden 1 Center. While he hadn’t taken a tour yet, he’s excited that his hometown club has a new building and long-term lease to stay in Sacramento.
“This team just has so much of a legacy to this city, it’s really cool to see this arena here now,” Anderson said.
Anderson didn’t rule out coming to Sacramento to finish up his career. He’ll be 32-years-old when his current contract with Houston ends and he’s said he’d keep the door open for a possible return home, if the Kings would have him.

 

[VF21]

You said you had an unnamed source that told you insider info, or at least that was what I took away from your comment. Ham's article dances around whether or not the Kings actually made a better offer, doesn't it? It says there was MUTUAL INTEREST and CONVERSATIONS. It says nothing about Anderson getting a higher offer from the Kings and declining it in favor of Houston.

Either way, I don't really see the need to continue the discussion. I don't want Ryan Anderson and I don't think Vlade does either, especially at this point. Have a good night.

 

[ParniValjak]

You said you had an unnamed source that told you insider info, or at least that was what I took away from your comment. Ham's article dances around whether or not the Kings actually made a better offer, doesn't it? It says there was MUTUAL INTEREST and CONVERSATIONS. It says nothing about Anderson getting a higher offer from the Kings and declining it in favor of Houston.

Either way, I don't really see the need to continue the discussion. I don't want Ryan Anderson and I don't think Vlade does either, especially at this point. Have a good night.

He couldn’t have gotten a higher offer from the Kings given that Houston gave him a maximum allowable contract for a player of his experience. At the absolute best the Kings could have offered the same as Houston did but not a higher offer.

 

[24 rick barry]

Sixers would likely not make the Playoffs in the West. So


Hinkie was fired, right?

It looks as if Philly is still in the playoffs. Would you rather be watching our team in the playoffs or are so looking forward to seeing what our lottery number in the draft is next week?