+/- Stats: Why Cousins's Fouls and Collison's Health Are Everything

[Bricklayer]

Okay, so against the Mavs I was quite upset when I heard Darren Collison was going to be out, and more upset when the refs took Cuz out, again. I have been waiting for statistical support for my reasoning to arrive -- don't think they start compiling these until a few weeks go by, and it IS early, however here are the stats that support what we all know and can just feel when we are watching the games:


Part I -- Kings 2014-15 Offensive/Defensive/Total* On/Off Per 100 Possessions
*you want Off to be a +, and Def to be a -

Collison: Off:+10.8/Def: -32.1/Tot: +42.9
Cousins: Off:+12.5/Def: -22.6/Tot: +35.2
RudGay: Off:+10.4/Def: -14.4/Tot: +24.8
McLemr: Off:+5.3/Def: -7.1/Tot: +12.4
Thomps: Off:-12.9/Def: -14.1/Tot: +1.2
CLandry: Off:-0.1/Def: +3.9/Tot: -4.0
ReEvans: Off:+5.5/Def: +14.1/Tot: -8.6
OCasspi: Off:-11.2/Def: +10.5/Tot: -21.8
Stauskas: Off:-7.7/Def: +17.1/Tot: -24.8
Sessions: Off:-10.4/Def: +27.8/Tot: -38.2


This early, and with such a distinct trio of super-presences up top, many of the numbers on the rest of the team can pretty much be realted to: how many minutes do they get to play alongside Cuz and Collison (and to a lesser degree Gay)? Nonetheless some early surprises:

-- Reggie Evans with the 4th best (+5.5) Offensive +/-. Conventional wisdom of course is unskilled = bad offense. But maybe his screen setting and offensive boarding make up for that. In any case you would have thought it would be very hard for him to be a + offender as Cuz's backup who rarely gets to play alongside the big guy.

-- Ben having by far the weakest impact on defense amongst the starters. This with Stauskas as a quite bad defender as his primary backup too. Might be related to a few long stints with the backups at some point, or maybe he's just being carried by the main guys.

-- Omri's big minus number. Omri has looked and flet good this year. Seems to make smart plays, be helping. But the +/- say otherwise. And in particular he's actually saddled with the second lowest Offensive number on the team. Even as Rudy's backup that is surprising.

-- Sessions has been a complete disaster

-- Jason is predictably all defense, but his huge negative on offense is pretty eye opening. This is a guy who starts both halves alongside Cuz and Collison and Gay, the biggest offensive + guys on the team. And yet somehow we still can't score when he's on the floor? That's bad.


Part II -- How Do We Compare to Other Teams?

Its early, so both the highs and the lows can be exaggerated, but those huge +/- numbers for Collison and Cuz in particular are staggering.

Consider this list of the +/- of some of the league's best players:

Collison +42.9
Curry +37.2
Cousins +35.2
Harden +34.0
Randolph +33.5
Thompson +33.2
Howard +33.1
Wall +31.9
Davis +30.8
Gay +24.9
Conley +20.9
Love +20.2
DRose +16.7
MGasol +16.3
Duncan +14.7
Hayward +12.0
Nowitzki +11.9
Anthony +9.8
Wade +9.3
Bosh +9.1
Lawson +8.2
PGasol +6.6
Drummond +5.6
Bledsoe +5.3
Hibbert +5.0
Thomas +2.6
DWiliams +2.2
Dragic +1.8
DeRozan +1.8
Irving -0.4
Lillard -2.4
Rondo -2.5
James -4.2
Lowry -4.9
Jefferson -5.4
Noah -5.7
Milsap -6.3
Aldridge -11.0
Horford -17.1
Paul -22.7
Parker -22.8
Bryant -27.2
Griffin -33.8

Basically 3 teams stand out there as being completely dependent on their stars: Sacramento, Houston and Memphis. But nobody so much as us. We absolutely need those guys on the floor at all times.


Part III -- Collison's Injuries

...should hopefully not be an issue. over his career Collison has played in 76, 79, 60 (strike year), 81 and 80 games, making him as durable as about any little guard. He is scrawny though, and he's never had to carry as big a load as we are now asking him to. Still, fingers crossed he can be there nearly every night.


Part III -- Cousins Foul Problems

A much MUCH bigger issue. The elephant in the room. When we have DeMarcus Cousins on the court, we are buttkickers, we are legitimately as good as almost anyone. Think that's an exaggeration? Consider these numbers:

Team eFG% (eFG% takes into account the extra point on 3pt shots)
Cousins on: 48.8%
Cousins off: 41.8%

Opponent eFG% (eFG% takes into account the extra point on 3pt shots)
Cousins on: 42.1%
Cousins off: 52.2%

Rebounding %
Cousins on: 56.5%
Cousins off: 51.5%

When Boogie is on the floor, we are a flat dominant team, and this is primarily against the other team's stars/starters. The problem is, he's not on the floor enough. The numbers:

2014-15 NBA Personal Fouls/Game and PFs per 48
1) Cousins 4.9/gm = 7.7/per48
2) Howard 4.7/gm = 7.0/per48
3) Drummond 4.4/gm = 7.3/per48
4) Sanders 4.4/gm = 9.0/per48
5) Shawne Wiliams 4.0/gm = 6.7/per48 (I have no idea why he's on this list)
6) Ed Davis 4.0/gm = 8.2/per48
7) Terrence Jones 4.0/gm = 6.6/per48
8) Carlos Boozer 3.9/gm = 6.8/per48
9) Dramond Green 3.9/gm = 5.6/per48
10) Kelly Olynyk 3.8/gm = 6.8/per 48

As you can see at the top of the list many of the league's best bigs are being primarily held back by whistles. Thanks for letting play zebras! Also of note on that list: there aren't even 10 guys in the NBA within 1 foul a game of Cousins' ridiculous totals. When Zach Lowe reported that some unnamed "officials" in China said Cuz was a horrible person who would never be an All Star...maybe he was being literal.

End result:

Percentage of Team's Minutes Played of Top +/- Players From the List Above
Davis 77%
Love 77%
Harden 76%
Curry 73%
Wall 73%
Gay 72%
Thompson 70% --missed 1gm
Collison 70% --missed 1 gm
Randolph 68%
Conley 66%
Cousins 60%
Howard 57% --missed 1gm

The fouls mean we are getting 10-15% less Cuz than other teams are getting out of their critical personnel. As I showed with the on/off numbers above, having 10-15% fewer minutes for Cuz each game could literally mean we are giving away perhaps as many as 3-5pts a game just by not having Boogie on the floor. That is an enormous number. That is the difference between 30 wins and 50 wins.

 

[Larry89]

Harden has about 15 or so more freethrows over DMC on the year, granted he has played one more game and more minutes.. the top 5 are all wings and then DMC.

 

[kingsboi]

we don't need plus or minus statistics to show us how valuable these two are in turning things around, the veteran presence alone and getting his team to the right spots is irreplaceable.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

These numbers are just early-season goofy at this point. +42.9 per 100 possessions?!? LeBron and Durant were in the +6 range last year; Kevin Love as about the only decent player on the 'Wolves was at +11. Obviously Collison and Cousins have been the MVPs thus far, but the +/- scores are unsustainable. I'd be interested to see what those are come February -- I wouldn't be surprised if they told us the same story about Cousins, Gay, and Collison being the impact guys, but they'll probably be in single digits at that point.

 

[VF21]

I think Malone is going to have to be a little more daring with Cousins' minutes. He cannot continue to sit him on the bench for so long that he actually takes him out of the game. Yes, the officiating is problematic at times and Cousins is still prone to the occasional dumb foul. Yes, other teams are adjusting their game to try and get Cousins in foul trouble. Those are just facts of life for Cousins now and he's going to have to learn to play with more fouls AND Malone is going to have to learn to trust his center. There will be times when we lose Cousins early to that 6th foul, but he's lost already if he is parked on the bench at critical times in the game.

 

[Bricklayer]

I think Malone is going to have to be a little more daring with Cousins' minutes. He cannot continue to sit him on the bench for so long that he actually takes him out of the game. Yes, the officiating is problematic at times and Cousins is still prone to the occasional dumb foul. Yes, other teams are adjusting their game to try and get Cousins in foul trouble. Those are just facts of life for Cousins now and he's going to have to learn to play with more fouls AND Malone is going to have to learn to trust his center. There will be times when we lose Cousins early to that 6th foul, but he's lost already if he is parked on the bench at critical times in the game.

The difficulty is that at 4.9 fouls per game, you would be lucky to get 5 more min out of him if you let him foul out of every single game. Which might actually be a way to go as it would create a sensation and spotlight a reffing issue when we complained about it.

 

[VF21]

The difficulty is that at 4.9 fouls per game, you would be lucky to get 5 more min out of him if you let him foul out of every single game. Which might actually be a way to go as it would create a sensation and spotlight a reffing issue when we complained about it.

But 5 minutes more could make a difference, especially if it kept the opponent from getting a run started OR allowed us to keep a lead. And, as you point out, if he continues to be fouled out on ticky-tack calls it won't be long before all our new bandwagon media types point it out.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

Look at Sessions hahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

[Chicken Chaser]

Look at Sessions hahahahahahaaaaaaaaaaaa

 

[HndsmCelt]

scratching out an extra 5 min may or may not make the difference, but Cousins needs to knock off the dumb fouls, the reach ins, doping the shoulder, and so fourth. He seems to make at least 2 of these a night.

 

[lawlman91]

Interesting stats! Thanks for writing this out, very interesting.

 

[VF21]

scratching out an extra 5 min may or may not make the difference, but Cousins needs to knock off the dumb fouls, the reach ins, doping the shoulder, and so fourth. He seems to make at least 2 of these a night.

I've been watching Cousins very carefully this season thus far and I think he has shown vast improvement.

Game 1 (Warriors): A couple of frustration fouls in a game that would make most people cry
Game 2 (Trailblazers): One particularly egregious frustration foul that sent him to the bench. When he came back, however, he was in full Boogie beast mode.
Game 3 (Clippers): One poor foul again, but it seemed to really motivate him when he came back into the game. He waived Malone off when he got his 4th foul and stayed in to keep the momentum going.
Game 4 (Nuggets): The only frustration fouls in this game were committed by Mozgov. It wasn't DMC's best performance of the season, but he didn't do anything dumb...
Game 5 (Nuggets): If he played every game like he played this game, we'd already be in the playoffs. There are not enough superlatives to describe his performance. Not even crappy calls by officials could deter him, and the only reason he fouled out was one of those crappy calls.
Game 6 (Suns): Second came in a row where Cousins played hard, drew fouls, got fouls called on him and was finally fouled out on a BAD moving screen call.
Game 7 (Thunder): Lethargic performance by most of the team, but I do not recall (and Brickie's grades don't reflect) any dumb fouls.
Game 8 (Mavericks): I think Bricklayer says it best in his grades thread -

This was a game defined not by Cousins' game oncourt, but by how much enforced time he spent off of it. Cuz is leading the league in fouls again at an astounding 4.9 per game in only 30min per, a pace for 7.7 per 48. He's not the only top center with a beef with the refs, Howard and Drummond have been screwed too, but nobody else is as absolutely critical to his team's fortunes (more on that on a thread I will start once these grades are done).

IIRC there were some ticky-tack fouls, but I don't recall any dumb fouls.

It is obvious that Cousins is working incredibly hard on changing his mindset, not allowing himself to fall victim to his own dumb mistakes, and striving to truly be the leader we need him to be. Unfortunately, he's still a work in progress at this point but I think the key word is PROGRESS. He's definitely making it and I think we need to be fair in acknowledging it.

 

[KingMilz]

This is why in the game thread I was blaming Cousins for the lose in Dallas the moment he leaves the floor (when he's not scheduled for his normal rest due to fouls) we tend to fall apart. Sometimes it's better to even give up a wide open basket in the 2nd quarter than it is risking getting sent off the floor. We struggle enough without Cuz/Collison/Gay (Collison and Gay for the most part have been good at not fouling) off the floor we don't need these guys taking themselves out of the game.

I also believe if Cousins actually used his hook shots he would eliminate at least 50% of his offensive fouls, he has not attempted one half hook this whole season and when he used it last year he was absolutely lethal, still seems like he lacks that go to move in the post which he can always fall back on rather than relying on his immense talent. While he's becoming really good at that step through move that's simply not going to work against defenders like Marc Gasol, Duncan, Bogut, Tyson Chandler and the more experienced defenders, he needs that half hook (it's unguardable with someone with his wingspan and strength) to combat these guys. If he ever gets confident in that half hook and actually applies it that's when he becomes beyond scary.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

scratching out an extra 5 min may or may not make the difference, but Cousins needs to knock off the dumb fouls, the reach ins, doping the shoulder, and so fourth. He seems to make at least 2 of these a night.

Yea the reach in fouls in the back court are by far his worst. But he also needs to understand that most big men are going to resort to flopping because they know they can't guard him and they know how much the game can change if he picks up a couple fouls, so he needs to work on going around them with his great foot work, not trying to power through them

 

[Gilles]

Didn't want to start a new thread, so here's some tinkering with NBA.COM stats engine.

Defense from starters looks amazing through first 9 games:
opponents' shooting compared to league average
Cousins (-3.2%; - 1.2% last season) can be found for each player at similar links - http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202326/tracking/defense/
Gay (-8.0%; - 0.8% last season)
Collison (-8.8%; 0.0% last season with the Clippers)
Thompson (-6.8%; - 0.5% last season)
McLemore (-6.0%; +4.6% last season)
On the other end of the spectrum: Evans at +13.3% (last season was +4.9%), Sessions at +13.8% (last season was +1.4%) and Stauskas at +7.9%.
In the middle are Casspi at +0.3%(was -3.0% last season) and Landry at +0.6%.
Incompletes due to lack of minutes: McCallum at -22.3% (last season was -2.0%), Hollins at +14.4%(last season was -7.7% with the Clippers - very nice number over the course of the season), Williams at +10.7%(0.2% last season).
Major weakness of these stats is lack of fouls and FTs tracking, and also forcing TOs, but it's a start.

So decided to look at last years' splits for a few players (nba.com only has this for last season and this).
One of the first players I took a look at are:
Kyle O'Quinn, ORL (-3.6% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203124/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, good across the board)
Brandon Bass, BOS (-1.1% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101138/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, definition of average inside)
Cole Aldrich, NYK (-4.1% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202332/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, great inside, below average outside of 10 feet)
Samuel Dalembert, NYK (-0.8% last season with Dallas; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/2223/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, good inside, below average outside of 10 feet)
Taj Gibson, CHI (-4.1% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201959/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, good inside, average outside of 10 feet)
Ian Mahinmi, IND (-3.9% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101133/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, great inside, below average outside of 10 feet)
John Henson, MIL (-0.7% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203089/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, solid inside, below average outside of 10 feet)
Ersan Ilyasova, MIL (+6.5% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/101141/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, just bad across the board)
O.J. Mayo, MIL (-4.0% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201564/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, average inside, good outside; this one is really surprising given his reputation)
Larry Sanders, MIL (-4.6% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202336/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, great inside, good outside of 10 feet)
Rudy Gobert, UTAH (-4.9% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203497/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, great inside, surrenders long jumpers)
Paul Millsap, ATL (+1.1% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/200794/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, just average)
Al Horford, ATL (-3.3% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201143/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, great inside, surrenders long jumpers)
Bismack Biyombo, CHA (-4.9% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202687/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, devastating inside, much worse outside)
Gerald Henderson, CHA (-2.5% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201945/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, average outside and under the basket, excellent at defending mid-range)
Ed Davis, LAL (-4.3% last season with Memphis; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/202334/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, great inside, surrenders long jumpers)
Jordan Hill, LAL (+0.1% last season; http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/201941/tracking/defense/?Season=2013-14, good inside, surrenders long jumpers)
For bigs team defense is as important as a personal one, so here's opposing team FG% at the rim last season:
FG%-oppFGAper36min-Name
39.1-------11.4-------Bismack Biyombo, CHA
40,5-------9.4-------DeMarcus Cousins, SAC, this year
41.2-------12.4-------Rudy Gobert, UTAH
41.5-------10.2-------Larry Sanders, MIL
43.8--------7.1-------Ed Davis, LAL
44.1-------12.0-------Cole Aldrich, NYK
44.7-------11.3-------Ian Mahinmi, IND
44.9-------6.7-------Taj Gibson, CHI
47.1--------8.8-------Kyle O'Quinn, ORL
47.3-------9.4--------John Henson, MIL
48.5-------6.8-------Jason Thompson, SAC, last year
48.8-------7.5-------Al Horford, ATL
51.0-------6.9-------Jason Thompson, SAC, this year
51,1--------8.3------DeMarcus Cousins, SAC, last year
51.4-------10.4-----Jordan Hill, LAL
52.0-------10.9-----Samuel Dalembert, NYK
52.8-------10.0-----Paul Millsap, ATL
54.0-------5.6-------Brandon Bass, BOS
Obviously bench, low minutes guys like Biyombo, Gobert, Davis or Aldrich were able to go at full speed with no concern for foul trouble, that big minutes reserves or starters might have.
P.S. Check out Elfrid Peyton at http://stats.nba.com/player/#!/203901/tracking/defense/

 

[SacKings384]

Think our +- is a bit skewed when comparing to the best in the league because of how awful our second unit has been. Particularly Sessions. I'd like Ray to get more time or we can sign just a serviceable backup PG that doesn't do a whole lot but can control the floor a bit. Not a lot out there when I look at the Free Agent list though.

 

[funkykingston]

Didn't want to start a new thread, so here's some tinkering with NBA.COM stats engine.

On the other end of the spectrum: Evans at +13.3% (last season was +4.9%)

I would assume that is primarily due to the Twin Duplexes lineup where he's the defacto center and rim "protector". Evans has always been a tough guy, scrapper and rebounder but never a great individual or team defender. Having him going up a weight class only exacerbates that.

 

[Kingster]

The numbers confirm the eye-ball test. If Cousins, Gay, or Collison go down with injury for any length of time, then forget about the playoffs. This isn't a team built on depth, that's for sure. And speaking of depth, the most important sub continues to be whomever subs for Cousins, as those individuals are likely to get a lot of important minutes because of Cousins' foul troubles.

 

[HereWeBoogie]

This is how bad Ramon Sessions has been:

@nbastats · 7h
Collison (15.8 PPG/6.0 APG) has been huge for @SacramentoKings. SAC has a +12.9 NetRtg w/ him on the floor, team-worst -22.3 w/ him off

 

[Larry89]

 

[arusinov]

-- Omri's big minus number. Omri has looked and flet good this year. Seems to make smart plays, be helping. But the +/- say otherwise. And in particular he's actually saddled with the second lowest Offensive number on the team. Even as Rudy's backup that is surprising.
.

Now... Let's me defend my countryman a bit.
I don't think those stats say much about Omri's performance. Actually it's just proof of the thesis of the topic.
Casspi is playing small number of minutes with leaders of the team (Cousins, Collison and certainly Gay ) and big minutes as part of second unit which features non-productive players as Sessions & Stauskas and also Williams and Hollins (fortunally small minutes) and good defender but non-factor offensively Evans

On NBA.com ( http://stats.nba.com/team/#!/1610612758/lineups/) we can examine lineups.
For example starters unit Collison - McLemore - Gay - Thompson - Cousins played together 133 min with +/- +59.
And full second unit Sessions - Stauskas - Casspi - Landry - Evans played 25 min which was bad enough for -21

Now, for 3-man compositions
Collison - ... - Casspi - ... - Cousins - 51 min. together +21
Sessions - ... - Casspi - ... - Evans- 51 min. together -25

Yes... Omri, even with Carl Laundry can't raise level of second unit enough to be competative but he's not trying to be star here...

 

[HereWeBoogie]

Did anyone see the offense and defense ratings that guy from the Starters tweeted? DMC's are crazy. Statistically he is more impactful on defense than Anthony Davis right now

 

[HereWeBoogie]

Here it is, these numbers are insane:

Taco Trey Kerby @treykerby · 4h
DeMarcus Cousins for MVP:

Taco Trey Kerby @treykerby · 4h
PS is DMC a more impactful defender than Anthony Davis? Who knows but the numbers are weird.

and some of the comments that followed:

Taco Trey Kerby ‏@treykerby 4h
@YoungAjax I don't really understand it. SAC D is Top 6 with DMC on the court, NOP doesn't make Top 10 with Davis on.

Jackson Roman ‏@YoungAjax 4h
@treykerby yeah, dmc is weirdly and sneakily becoming one of the best rim protectors in the league. Is that davis w/ or w/o asik on?

Taco Trey Kerby ‏@treykerby 4h
@YoungAjax Just Davis on at any time. Numbers way better with both on, but Boogie doesn't have anybody like that with him ever.

 

[Bricklayer]

And really it could be that simple. You can fix the bench, requiring multiple moves. Or the above numbers strongly suggest that with all of our flaws, the other route to taking the next step is no more complex then KEEP BOOGIE ON THE FLOOR. We dominate every minute he is on. get dominated when he is off. So, KEEP BOOGIE ON THE FLOOR. Do that, and we are instantly more formidable.