If Duncan is healthy, Spurs take it. This will sound odd, but I think this may be the first truly "great" Spurs team -- as in a team able to play both sides of the ball. Their previous champs sort of snuck in ala Detroit last year, played the best defense, but were always vulnerable and shaky because they could go on 5 minute long scoreless droughts. But while its still easy to make all the normal boring Spurs jokes, this current team can actually score on the other end (much credit to Manu especially) and was running around beating Phoenix in shootouts. That's something previous incarantions of the Spurs could never do. Its also what should separate it here from the Pistons. Assuming again that Duncan is healthy -- if he's hobbled and Ben Wallace or Sheed can shut him down one on one, then the Pistons will have their shot.