SAC & HOU (Christian Wood)

Who wins the trade?

  • HOU by a lot

  • HOU

  • HOU by a little

  • Both / Fair Trade

  • SAC by a little

  • SAC

  • SAC by a lot

  • Neither


Results are only viewable after voting.
#31
Wow. Well, I disagree w/almost all of you.

A mobile, defending, solid-rebounding, 20 ppg, 3-pt-shooting (37% career) young center who can work in most any lineup? YES, PLS.

My only concern about Wood is that he's missed a TON of time over the years with injuries. But if the medical folks say that's not a concern, a deal that brought back Wood and created major cap space AND allowed us to slough off Buddy and Bags? Are you kidding me?!

I'm not even hatin' on Buddy, but w/Delon, Davis (assuming he's back), Tyrese Kings can already replace his minutes no problem.

As for Bagley, apparently Monte couldn't give him away for Saddiq Bey. Saddiq. Bey.

I deal that leaves Wood, Fox, Tyrese as the 25-and-younger core AND creates room to add another major piece? That's an easy yes from me. The #9 is a loss, but not enough to make me hesitate.

Know who'd hesitate, big time? Houston.
 
#32
Know who'd hesitate, big time? Houston.
Not sure why they would, they are in a dedicated rebuild, they'd get some complimentary pieces who are frankly, proven not to be capable of winning on their own insuring their chances of top 4 picks over the next 2 drafts, but they'd have control of Buddy for 3 years, be presumably able to play Bagley all the minutes he wants and feature him and then re-sign at market rate, and get a 9 pick to go with a top 4 pick if they keep theirs this year. We'd look like fools in 2-3 years if their picks pan out and Buddy and Bagley contribute in any meaningful way. Buddy's deal declines, so if they want to re-sign him they probably start negotiations at an even lower rate.

I am not saying we're going to win with Buddy as a main part of our core, nor am I convinced that Bagley is ever going to prove himself worthy of being picked #2 overall, but we're basically giving a team in a full rebuild 3 talented players that are not meeting our oversized expectations. It's the ultimate buy-low sell high move for Houston.
 
#33
Not sure why they would, they are in a dedicated rebuild, they'd get some complimentary pieces who are frankly, proven not to be capable of winning on their own insuring their chances of top 4 picks over the next 2 drafts, but they'd have control of Buddy for 3 years, be presumably able to play Bagley all the minutes he wants and feature him and then re-sign at market rate, and get a 9 pick to go with a top 4 pick if they keep theirs this year. We'd look like fools in 2-3 years if their picks pan out and Buddy and Bagley contribute in any meaningful way. Buddy's deal declines, so if they want to re-sign him they probably start negotiations at an even lower rate.

I am not saying we're going to win with Buddy as a main part of our core, nor am I convinced that Bagley is ever going to prove himself worthy of being picked #2 overall, but we're basically giving a team in a full rebuild 3 talented players that are not meeting our oversized expectations. It's the ultimate buy-low sell high move for Houston.
"3 talented players"? Buddy is an average starting 2-guard in the NBA; he's not going to get better; and he's paid a lot. On a team like the Sixers Buddy could absolutely shine because of his shooting, but Houston isn't that team. Bags could yet redeem himself as a good player, certainly, but given his health history and the limits of his game, prove-himself-worthy-of-being-picked-#2-overall isn't a reasonable standard to apply to him.

Bottom line: Buddy and Bags might be "talented," but they're actually not very good and we have pretty good indication that GMs across the league know this.

Christian Wood, OTOH, posted 21 and 10 in 32 mpg while shooting 37% from 3. He's long and very athletic. You can play him at 4 or 5. Offensively, he's perfect for today's NBA. Not coincidentally, a bad Houston team became HORRIBLE when he got hurt.

And, oh yeah, he's 25 and doesn't have a lot of wear on his body. Wood, Fox, and Halliburton would do some fantastic work together.

Bags and the #9 for Wood seems plausible to me, assuming both sides are comfortable in re injury risks and Houston agrees that Bags may yet shine.
 
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#34
How do Holmes' stats compare to Wood's here? I think that's the main question since they play the same position. There's no question that he's better than Hield and Bagley but if he's not that much better than the man he's replacing, then there's no reason to give up nearly that much to get him.

LEBRON (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +2.46 / +1.22 / +1.84
Hield
= -0.58 / +0.31 / -0.14
Bagley
= -0.90 / -0.33 / -0.62
Holmes
= +2.55 / +1.77 / +2.16

RPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +3.30 / +3.14 / +3.22
Hield
= +0.30 / +2.26 / +1.28
Bagley
= -2.00 / -0.64 / -1.32
Holmes
= +0.50 / +0.94 / +0.72

RAPTOR (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +4.53 / +2.51 / +3.52
Hield
= +0.13 / +0.34 / +0.24
Bagley
= -4.31 / -2.62 / -3.47
Holmes
= +2.06 / +2.13 / +2.10

LA-RAPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +1.46 / -0.14 / +0.66
Hield
= -0.06 / +0.13 / +0.04
Bagley
= -0.99 / -0.03 / -0.51
Holmes
= +1.80 / +1.06 / +1.43

BPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +3.10 / +1.40 / +2.25
Hield
= +1.40 / -0.80 / +0.30
Bagley
= -3.40 / -3.40 / -3.40
Holmes
= -1.40 / +0.30 / -0.55

USG% (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = 0.230 / 0.259 / 0.245
Hield
= 0.272 / 0.207 / 0.240
Bagley
= 0.258 / 0.235 / 0.247
Holmes
= 0.156 / 0.175 / 0.166


I wouldn't really say they play the same position as Wood can play both PF & C with his shooting ability. You are more or less locked into Holmes playing C.

Another thing to keep in mind when viewing these types of stats is to consider the role they play. Holmes beats Wood in some of these metrics, but Holmes' role would be much more limited than Wood's role on this team. I added the USG% as a way for us to get a feel for how large their offensive role is on the team. You'll see Wood is at .245 over the last two years while Holmes is at .166 (I believe the league average sits around .200).

If I look at these stats for just the offensive end, this is how it plays out:

1622649483517.png

Wood is more or less on par with Holmes from an offensive metric standpoint, but is doing it with 8-9% more usage. That's notable.

Defensively, he looks like he could be an upgrade to Holmes:

1622649563459.png

So you have a player with an expanded offensive role posting similar/good offensive impact numbers and is posting better defensive numbers than Holmes while being a couple years younger and while only making $13 mil a year (could Holmes end up making the same or more than Wood with his new contract?).
 
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#35
LEBRON (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +2.46 / +1.22 / +1.84
Hield
= -0.58 / +0.31 / -0.14
Bagley
= -0.90 / -0.33 / -0.62
Holmes
= +2.55 / +1.77 / +2.16

RPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +3.30 / +3.14 / +3.22
Hield
= +0.30 / +2.26 / +1.28
Bagley
= -2.00 / -0.64 / -1.32
Holmes
= +0.50 / +0.94 / +0.72

RAPTOR (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +4.53 / +2.51 / +3.52
Hield
= +0.13 / +0.34 / +0.24
Bagley
= -4.31 / -2.62 / -3.47
Holmes
= +2.06 / +2.13 / +2.10

LA-RAPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +1.46 / -0.14 / +0.66
Hield
= -0.06 / +0.13 / +0.04
Bagley
= -0.99 / -0.03 / -0.51
Holmes
= +1.80 / +1.06 / +1.43

BPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +3.10 / +1.40 / +2.25
Hield
= +1.40 / -0.80 / +0.30
Bagley
= -3.40 / -3.40 / -3.40
Holmes
= -1.40 / +0.30 / -0.55

USG% (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = 0.230 / 0.259 / 0.245
Hield
= 0.272 / 0.207 / 0.240
Bagley
= 0.258 / 0.235 / 0.247
Holmes
= 0.156 / 0.175 / 0.166


I wouldn't really say they play the same position as Wood can play both PF & C with his shooting ability. You are more or less locked into Holmes playing C.

Another thing to keep in mind when viewing these types of stats is to consider the role they play. Holmes beats Wood in some of these metrics, but Holmes' role would be much more limited than Wood's role on this team. I added the USG% as a way for us to get a feel for how large their offensive role is on the team. You'll see Wood is at .245 over the last two years while Holmes is at .166 (I believe the league average sits around .200).

If I look at these stats for just the offensive end, this is how it plays out:

View attachment 10558

Wood is more or less on par with Holmes from an offensive metric standpoint, but is doing it with 8-9% more usage. That's notable.

Defensively, he looks like he could be an upgrade to Holmes:

View attachment 10559

So you have a player with an expanded offensive role posting similar/good offensive impact numbers and is posting better defensive numbers than Holmes while being a couple years younger and while only making $13 mil a year (could Holmes end up making the same or more than Wood with his new contract?).
Good stuff. Thanks for putting that together. There's a lot to think about there.

I personally think Wood is a center through and through. He can get by at PF but he's not going to be as good defensively or offensively. He's a solid 3pt shooter but his game is inside and outside and if you just have him do one or the other, he's not going to be as effective as he could be.

So in my opinion the deal is basically Buddy, Bagley, 9th pick and Holmes (theoretically) for Wood. I just don't like the idea of giving up a lottery pick in a solid draft for a guy who is better than Holmes but not leagues better and is just marginally better defensively. His game most definitely opens up the offense but it doesn't do a whole lot to fix the 30th place defense.

The pick is the hold up for me. Buddy is a slightly above average player but he just doesn't fit the team defensively. Everyone knows I wouldn't mind getting rid of Bagley because I think that's addition by subtraction. I just don't think acquiring Wood would make this a playoff team. I think they'd be a tick better offensively but still poor defensively and would have trouble filling out the roster through free agency.

To me, a player like Robert Williams would be better for this team because he does the things that other players on the team don't do. His numbers don't jump off the chart like Wood's do but I think he has a greater overall impact and his impact on the Kings would be even larger because his skills don't overlap with other players.
 
#36
LEBRON (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +2.46 / +1.22 / +1.84
Hield
= -0.58 / +0.31 / -0.14
Bagley
= -0.90 / -0.33 / -0.62
Holmes
= +2.55 / +1.77 / +2.16

RPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +3.30 / +3.14 / +3.22
Hield
= +0.30 / +2.26 / +1.28
Bagley
= -2.00 / -0.64 / -1.32
Holmes
= +0.50 / +0.94 / +0.72

RAPTOR (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +4.53 / +2.51 / +3.52
Hield
= +0.13 / +0.34 / +0.24
Bagley
= -4.31 / -2.62 / -3.47
Holmes
= +2.06 / +2.13 / +2.10

LA-RAPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +1.46 / -0.14 / +0.66
Hield
= -0.06 / +0.13 / +0.04
Bagley
= -0.99 / -0.03 / -0.51
Holmes
= +1.80 / +1.06 / +1.43

BPM (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = +3.10 / +1.40 / +2.25
Hield
= +1.40 / -0.80 / +0.30
Bagley
= -3.40 / -3.40 / -3.40
Holmes
= -1.40 / +0.30 / -0.55

USG% (2019-20 / 2020-21 / Average)
Wood = 0.230 / 0.259 / 0.245
Hield
= 0.272 / 0.207 / 0.240
Bagley
= 0.258 / 0.235 / 0.247
Holmes
= 0.156 / 0.175 / 0.166


I wouldn't really say they play the same position as Wood can play both PF & C with his shooting ability. You are more or less locked into Holmes playing C.

Another thing to keep in mind when viewing these types of stats is to consider the role they play. Holmes beats Wood in some of these metrics, but Holmes' role would be much more limited than Wood's role on this team. I added the USG% as a way for us to get a feel for how large their offensive role is on the team. You'll see Wood is at .245 over the last two years while Holmes is at .166 (I believe the league average sits around .200).

If I look at these stats for just the offensive end, this is how it plays out:

View attachment 10558

Wood is more or less on par with Holmes from an offensive metric standpoint, but is doing it with 8-9% more usage. That's notable.

Defensively, he looks like he could be an upgrade to Holmes:

View attachment 10559

So you have a player with an expanded offensive role posting similar/good offensive impact numbers and is posting better defensive numbers than Holmes while being a couple years younger and while only making $13 mil a year (could Holmes end up making the same or more than Wood with his new contract?).
Great stuff. Does this show positionally where Wood spent most of his time? Last year, my best guess is basically all C, but played a ton of PF with the Pistons in 2019-2020. I do think Wood-Holmes could really shine on both ends, especially defensively.
 
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#37
Great stuff. Does this show positionally where Wood spent most of his time? Last year, my best guess is basically all C, but played a ton of PF with the Pistons in 2019-2020. I do think Wood-Holmes could really shine on both ends, especially defensively.
Yeah, he was basically at C all last year, but has dipped into PF minutes in previous seasons:

1622731973510.png

I do think a frontcourt of Wood & Holmes would really help the defense. They can both rebound, protect the rim, & defend the perimeter/PnR, but this team is going to go through Fox, and for this team to reach their ceiling, Fox is going to need spacing on the offensive end. Wood at C potentially provides a perfect fit at C next to Fox:

  • Good shooter to space the floor for Fox
  • Good lob threat for Fox
  • Can run the floor with Fox
  • Good rim protector
  • Good perimeter/PnR defender
  • Good rebounder
  • Good size/length: 9'3.5" standing reach (91st percentile for PFs & Cs drafted in the past 10 years) and 7'3.25" wingspan (71st percentile for PFs & Cs drafted in the past 10 years)
 
#38
Good stuff. Thanks for putting that together. There's a lot to think about there.

I personally think Wood is a center through and through. He can get by at PF but he's not going to be as good defensively or offensively. He's a solid 3pt shooter but his game is inside and outside and if you just have him do one or the other, he's not going to be as effective as he could be.
I agree here. He's best at C, but his athleticism, defense, and shooting give you that versatility if it's needed. For instance, if Steven Adams is absolutely abusing Wood down low, you can bring in your cheap brute and slide Wood to PF.

So in my opinion the deal is basically Buddy, Bagley, 9th pick and Holmes (theoretically) for Wood. I just don't like the idea of giving up a lottery pick in a solid draft for a guy who is better than Holmes but not leagues better and is just marginally better defensively. His game most definitely opens up the offense but it doesn't do a whole lot to fix the 30th place defense.
I guess the way I see it is that you're removing two guys who are poor defenders from the rotation (Hield & Bagley) and upgrading the defense with Wood for Holmes. Depending on who gets the minutes that were allocated to Hield & Bagley, I could easily see our defense taking a step forward.

If we're going to include Holmes as part of the pieces going out, then we must also acknowledge the cap flexibility/cap space coming in.

Let's think of it this way, we could resign Holmes after this trade and would have the following roster going into the 2021-22 season:

PG - Fox / Wright / Augustin
SG - Haliburton / Bradley / Ramsey
SF - Barnes / House / James
PF - Wood / Woodard
C - Holmes / Metu / Jones

A core of Fox, Haliburton, Barnes, Wood, & Holmes still doesn't feel like "enough" to be a top 4 team in the west. I'd rather have the cap flexibility/cap space in the 2022 offseason to take a shot at a big time free agent. No guarantees we could pull it off of course (this is Sacramento after all), but just like some people like to draft the risky, high potential player in the draft in hopes of striking gold. This is a similar approach just via free agency.

I still would be open to resigning Holmes if we can get him for a deal because, at that point, you could look to flip him for a young asset & cap space prior to the 2022 offseason. That way you still can take your shot at a big time free agent, but you have another cheap young asset/pick to have in your back pocket.
 
#39
I agree here. He's best at C, but his athleticism, defense, and shooting give you that versatility if it's needed. For instance, if Steven Adams is absolutely abusing Wood down low, you can bring in your cheap brute and slide Wood to PF.



I guess the way I see it is that you're removing two guys who are poor defenders from the rotation (Hield & Bagley) and upgrading the defense with Wood for Holmes. Depending on who gets the minutes that were allocated to Hield & Bagley, I could easily see our defense taking a step forward.

If we're going to include Holmes as part of the pieces going out, then we must also acknowledge the cap flexibility/cap space coming in.

Let's think of it this way, we could resign Holmes after this trade and would have the following roster going into the 2021-22 season:

PG - Fox / Wright / Augustin
SG - Haliburton / Bradley / Ramsey
SF - Barnes / House / James
PF - Wood / Woodard
C - Holmes / Metu / Jones

A core of Fox, Haliburton, Barnes, Wood, & Holmes still doesn't feel like "enough" to be a top 4 team in the west. I'd rather have the cap flexibility/cap space in the 2022 offseason to take a shot at a big time free agent. No guarantees we could pull it off of course (this is Sacramento after all), but just like some people like to draft the risky, high potential player in the draft in hopes of striking gold. This is a similar approach just via free agency.

I still would be open to resigning Holmes if we can get him for a deal because, at that point, you could look to flip him for a young asset & cap space prior to the 2022 offseason. That way you still can take your shot at a big time free agent, but you have another cheap young asset/pick to have in your back pocket.
I'm not even sure if that core is enough to be a top 8 team. It gets them closer than where they are now but I'm not sure if it allows them to jump over 4 teams.

I think we differ the most on the value of cap space. You obviously know that Sacramento is not a free agent destination but I think you may be a bit bullish on a good player actually signing here in Sac. Usually this franchise is used to bloat a contract up so a player can sign elsewhere. I remember Marcus Smart and Pat Bev both breathing a sigh of relief when our offers were matched. If I had to choose, I'd take a chance on the draft because at least you know you'll have that player under your control. In free agency they could very easily wind up with nothing or just another string of ill fitting, low tier vets.