Rebuilding Around Cousins

[twslam07]

Do you have anything other than RPM to indicate Noel is a negative impact player? He's played only two seasons so far and basketball-reference has him in the top 10 in Defensive Box Plus/Minus for both seasons:

2014-2015:
1.Andrew Bogut • GSW5.5
2.Rudy Gobert • UTA5.1
3.Tim Duncan • SAS4.7
4.Nerlens Noel • PHI4.5
5.Draymond Green • GSW4.0
6.Tony Allen • MEM3.7
7.Joakim Noah • CHI3.6
8.Marc Gasol • MEM3.5
9.Kawhi Leonard • SAS3.5
10.DeMarcus Cousins • SAC3.3

2015-2016:
1.Tim Duncan • SAS5.0
2.Rudy Gobert • UTA4.8
3.Paul Millsap • ATL4.2
4.Draymond Green • GSW3.9
5.DeAndre Jordan • LAC3.8
6.Pau Gasol • CHI3.5
7.Hassan Whiteside • MIA3.4
8.Nerlens Noel • PHI3.4
9.Ian Mahinmi • IND3.3
10.Amir Johnson • BOS3.2

The injury concerns are fair, but when he has been on the court he's already an impact player. His value is entirely on the defensive end, which is why you see unimpressive stats which average overall performance, but the difference between playing on a Philadelphia team for two years which had no scorers (now they have Embiid...) and sharing a Sacramento front court with the #4 scorer in the league couldn't be more extreme. The situations are so different that I don't think RPM is going to tell you anything useful at all. We don't need him to make more than 2 or 3 baskets per game so his offensive limitations should be put into context.

On this team he'd contribute as a defensive swiss army knife and short of Draymond Green, I don't think there's a more versatile defender in the league. For the most part basketball's top defenders are divided into two groups: athletic wings who harass guards and forwards on the perimeter and imposing big men who lock down the paint. Draymond Green is capable of both because of his strength/quickness combo. Nerlens Noel plays defense like an athletic wing but he's got the body type of a shotblocker. There are better shotblockers in the league but none with the footspeed to chase guards off of picks, the quick hands to strip ball handlers on the floor, and the anticipation skills to intercept passes before they even get to the post. No other big guy has been in the top 10 in steal percentage the last 2 years. It's like he's been genetically engineered to wreck pick and rolls. His floor game (away from the basket) is the best I've seen of any Center since Ben Wallace. So yeah I wouldn't want to take him away from the paint all the time but if you're suggesting that rim protection is his biggest strength on defense I think you just haven't watched him play very much.

RAPM, RPM, & On/Off all go along with what I'm seeing, and what I'm seeing is that as good as his defense is, his offense is just as bad.

You make the mistake of thinking offense is just about scoring and thus mistakenly discard a stat like RPM. The point is not that we should trade for a guy who can drop 20 a game. The point is to find someone who contributes to winning. Noel makes his teams offense worse when he is out on the floor. Does not being a scorer go into that? Yes, it does, but the point is that you can still find ways to help an offense without scoring. Guys like Amir Johnson who don't score a lot still make a positive impact on offense with everything else he does.

So I'll say it again, I do not want to be the team that has to pay a guy who right now is a negative/neutral impact, injury prone player $18-$22 mil a year. That's how you hamstring a franchise (not improve one).

 

[hrdboild]

RAPM, RPM, & On/Off all go along with what I'm seeing, and what I'm seeing is that as good as his defense is, his offense is just as bad.

You make the mistake of thinking offense is just about scoring and thus mistakenly discard a stat like RPM. The point is not that we should trade for a guy who can drop 20 a game. The point is to find someone who contributes to winning. Noel makes his teams offense worse when he is out on the floor. Does not being a scorer go into that? Yes, it does, but the point is that you can still find ways to help an offense without scoring. Guys like Amir Johnson who don't score a lot still make a positive impact on offense with everything else he does.

So I'll say it again, I do not want to be the team that has to pay a guy who right now is a negative/neutral impact, injury prone player $18-$22 mil a year. That's how you hamstring a franchise (not improve one).

Yes but you're looking at individual players as if they all impact the game in the same way independent of who they're lined up with. I'm saying if you pluck Noel out of Philly and put him next to DeMarcus, his ability to cover the whole floor will help to cover for DeMarcus' limitations as a defender and his complete lack of go-to scoring moves will be borderline irrelevant because he's going to score all of his points off of hustle plays when the defense cheats off him anyway. Nobody he played with in Philly is drawing a double-team. He would have to be some special kind of terrible to have negative impact on offense with a 30ppg per game monster playing next to him. We've seen year after year that our team can score points in bunches almost regardless of who else is on the floor and yet the defense remains consistently awful. Sure I'd love to say we can dump salary at the end of the year and sign an All-Star Free Agent but it ain't going to happen. So what we're looking for here are players with warts that make them obtainable. Stanley Johnson has warts right now -- he can't shoot, he's turnover prone, he's anything but a go-to scorer. But he can play defense and he has skills that he can build on offensively.

And Noel... well he's a bad offensive player. No one is disputing that. But he's so uniquely talented on defense that a team with a huge and specific need in that one aspect (us) should rightly value him higher than his current team does. We're trying to build a unit here where the pieces all fit together into an unstoppable juggernaut -- the right balance of scoring ability and lock-down potential. That's what I'm envisioning. So we'll need some guys who can score -- DeMarcus, Malachi, Bogdan, Skal, hopefully Stanley Johnson as he matures, somebody at the PG position. We also need guys who can defend at a high level -- Noel, Johnson, potential PG draftee, DeMarcus. It's finding the right mix that's important and those pieces don't all need to be two-way players individually. It's about the team right? I'll gladly give up offense at two positions to improve the defense if that's what's needed to find the right balance.

 

[twslam07]

Yes but you're looking at individual players as if they all impact the game in the same way independent of who they're lined up with. I'm saying if you pluck Noel out of Philly and put him next to DeMarcus, his ability to cover the whole floor will help to cover for DeMarcus' limitations as a defender and his complete lack of go-to scoring moves will be borderline irrelevant because he's going to score all of his points off of hustle plays when the defense cheats off him anyway. Nobody he played with in Philly is drawing a double-team. He would have to be some special kind of terrible to have negative impact on offense with a 30ppg per game monster playing next to him. We've seen year after year that our team can score points in bunches almost regardless of who else is on the floor and yet the defense remains consistently awful. Sure I'd love to say we can dump salary at the end of the year and sign an All-Star Free Agent but it ain't going to happen. So what we're looking for here are players with warts that make them obtainable. Stanley Johnson has warts right now -- he can't shoot, he's turnover prone, he's anything but a go-to scorer. But he can play defense and he has skills that he can build on offensively.

And Noel... well he's a bad offensive player. No one is disputing that. But he's so uniquely talented on defense that a team with a huge and specific need in that one aspect (us) should rightly value him higher than his current team does. We're trying to build a unit here where the pieces all fit together into an unstoppable juggernaut -- the right balance of scoring ability and lock-down potential. That's what I'm envisioning. So we'll need some guys who can score -- DeMarcus, Malachi, Bogdan, Skal, hopefully Stanley Johnson as he matures, somebody at the PG position. We also need guys who can defend at a high level -- Noel, Johnson, potential PG draftee, DeMarcus. It's finding the right mix that's important and those pieces don't all need to be two-way players individually. It's about the team right? I'll gladly give up offense at two positions to improve the defense if that's what's need to find the right balance.

Once again, you're confusing "scoring" with ORPM or ORAPM. Just because he's paired with a scorer in the front court does not mean that he is all of a sudden going to be a positive impact player on offense. RPM and RAPM take into account not only who you play against but their teammates as well.

And I'm not saying that we shouldn't take chances on players with warts, but an $18-$22 mil wart is something I just cannot get over. Take your chances on players who have more years on their rookie deals (Payne/Rozier/Johnson) or players you know help a team win today (Porter). Noel falls into neither group.

 

[hrdboild]

Once again, you're confusing "scoring" with ORPM or ORAPM. Just because he's paired with a scorer in the front court does not mean that he is all of a sudden going to be a positive impact player on offense. RPM and RAPM take into account not only who you play against but their teammates as well.

And I'm not saying that we shouldn't take chances on players with warts, but an $18-$22 mil wart is something I just cannot get over. Take your chances on players who have more years on their rookie deals (Payne/Rozier/Johnson) or players you know help a team win today (Porter). Noel falls into neither group.

I'm not confusing scoring with offensive impact. I'm saying he doesn't need to be a positive impact player on offense if his positive impact on defense is significant (which it is) and the team he's on can easily minimize his role on offense without sacrificing anything. Whether it's Noel or Cauley-Stein or Koufos or Casspi or someone else playing PF next to him, DeMarcus is going to draw double-teams and he's going to score. Remember the whole point of this thread was to try find the right players to put around DeMarcus to build a winning team without moving him. I don't think it's all that outlandish to suggest that the best way to compliment a 30ppg center is to put a strong defender who can't create their own shot next to him. DeAndre Jordan doesn't create his own shots either and it doesn't matter in that offense. Put him on a bad team with no scorers and his overall rating would look terrible too. Where do you think Noel is hurting the Sixers offensively other than trying to force scoring chances that aren't there because they have limited alternatives?

What I'm saying is that the defensive impact is there already and the offensive impact may be close to zero if he moves to the Kings, but it won't be significantly negative because he's not going to be getting enough touches to have negative impact. He can pass the ball and he can clean up misses. Good enough for now. That's already as much as Koufos and Cauley-Stein can do. He also has a rudimentary outside jumper and some seriously clumsy looking post moves that he might develop into scoring options down the road (he's only 22). You suggested before that his defensive impact would take a hit playing him "out of position" next to DeMarcus but I explained before why I don't think that's the case. I can't find a magic number to back that up, but it's there on tape. He's extremely talented at breaking up pick and roll action in the high post and he can effectively guard the perimeter and the paint (though not at the same time -- which is why I also want Stanley Johnson).

Also $18-22 million per year is going to become the standard for offensively challenged big men who do nothing but block shots and rebound. Keep that in mind as the salary cap goes up over $100 million. In professional sports you're worth whatever people will pay for you and it's already been proven that 20% of your cap for a dominating defensive presence is a bill most teams are willing to pay. If he still had 2 years left on his rookie deal, there wouldn't be the same pressure on Philly to move him so it goes both ways. This is a level of risk that I'm comfortable with because it doesn't involve blind chance (draft lottery) or an unprecedented change in our public perception (hoping a superstar player will come to Sacramento for $$).

 

[twslam07]

I'm not confusing scoring with offensive impact. I'm saying he doesn't need to be a positive impact player on offense if his positive impact on defense is significant (which it is) and the team he's on can easily minimize his role on offense without sacrificing anything. Whether it's Noel or Cauley-Stein or Koufos or Casspi or someone else playing PF next to him, DeMarcus is going to draw double-teams and he's going to score. Remember the whole point of this thread was to try find the right players to put around DeMarcus to build a winning team without moving him. I don't think it's all that outlandish to suggest that the best way to compliment a 30ppg center is to put a strong defender who can't create their own shot next to him. DeAndre Jordan doesn't create his own shots either and it doesn't matter in that offense. Put him on a bad team with no scorers and his overall rating would look terrible too. Where do you think Noel is hurting the Sixers offensively other than trying to force scoring chances that aren't there because they have limited alternatives?

Noel was paired with an offensive C last year who made his living in the post (Okafor). Is Okafor as good as Cousins? No, but you have to admit their are similarities, and I really am struggling to see how you think Noel had some sort of huge offensive role considering he was 13th on his team in shots per possession. He was already in this low usage mindset paired with an offensive minded center. Guess what? His offensive impact was still terrible. Do we really expect it to improve all that much here? I don't.

And again, you're missing the point. You can "minimize" a guys role on offense by limiting hit shots (which again is the argument that ORAPM does not equal scoring), but there are still other offensive factors that you are not considering. His floor spacing, his ability to be in thr right spot on the floor, his general offensive awareness/IQ, his ability to set good screens, avoiding turnovers, being able to make skillful & smart passes, offensive rebounding, how good his hands are, the list goes on and on. You can limit his "scoring" role, but these factors still play a role in his ability to be AT LEAST a neutral or slightly negative impact player on the offensive end.

Your DeAndre point is just speculative, and I never said that he needs to be able to create he own shot. He just needs to know how to play his role on offense, avoid mistakes, and do the little things on offense.

What I'm saying is that the defensive impact is there already and the offensive impact may be close to zero if he moves to the Kings, but it won't be significantly negative because he's not going to be getting enough touches to have negative impact. He can pass the ball and he can clean up misses. Good enough for now. That's already as much as Koufos and Cauley-Stein can do. He also has a rudimentary outside jumper and some seriously clumsy looking post moves that he might develop into scoring options down the road (he's only 22). You suggested before that his defensive impact would take a hit playing him "out of position" next to DeMarcus but I explained before why I don't think that's the case. I can't find a magic number to back that up, but it's there on tape. He's extremely talented at breaking up pick and roll action in the high post and he can effectively guard the perimeter and the paint (though not at the same time -- which is why I also want Stanley Johnson).

As I already stated, there's a lot of evidence to suggest his offensive impact wouldn't come close to neutral when moving to the Kings.

Yes, I believe it would take a hit playing him out of position because we already have evidence that he's less impactful when playing PF. If you're going to invest $18-$22 mil in a guy, you better be maximizing that said player, and to maximize Noel, you play him at C.

This evidence I'm talking about is first ane foremost that his defensive impact got worse in his second year (DRPM went from +3.35 in 2014-15 to +2.29 in 2015-16 and his Defensive On/Off went from -4.6 in 2014-15 to -2.3 in 2015-16). This had a lot to do with him being played at PF more and more considering they had Okafor on the roster as well. The year before, the only other center was Henry Sims, and he didn't play nearly as much as Okafor did last season which allowed Noel to play his best position....center.

Even his On/Off at PF & On/Off at C is eye popping.

2015-16 On/Off
PF = +2.4 pts per 100 poss
C = +13.1 pts per 100 poss

2014-15 On/Off
PF = -4.2 pts per 100 poss
C = +2.1 pts per 100 poss

Knowing that, Noel played 37% of his minutes at PF in 2015-16 & 21% of his minutes at PF in 2014-15. You can start to see why his impact decreased in his second year, but now you want to essentially bump his PF minutes from 37% to 60% (12 minutes as a backup C behind Cousins + 18 minutes as the starting PF = 30 minutes and 18 min / 30 min = 60%) and expect him to be more impactful here? Sorry, I'm not seeing it.

Also $18-22 million per year is going to become the standard for offensively challenged big men who do nothing but block shots and rebound. Keep that in mind as the salary cap goes up over $100 million. In professional sports you're worth whatever people will pay for you and it's already been proven that 20% of your cap for a dominating defensive presence is a bill most teams are willing to pay. If he still had 2 years left on his rookie deal, there wouldn't be the same pressure on Philly to move him so it goes both ways. This is a level of risk that I'm comfortable with because it doesn't involve blind chance (draft lottery) or an unprecedented change in our public perception (hoping a superstar player will come to Sacramento for $$).

I'm very aware of the cap. No need for you to try to squeeze it into your argument like it's an oversight by myself.

And I do agree that $18-$22 for a game changing defense player is worth the investment. However, Noel's "game" doesn't make a difference right now (well I guess it might make a negative difference). It's illogical to lock up a lot of your cap on a player that may never become a neutral impact player. That's where I'm coming from.

You say the draft is "blind chance" which isn't true, but Noel is a pretty "well known chance," and what's well known has been his inability to stay on the floor & his inability to impact a game positively. There's other ways to improve our team without taking such a BIG risk, and yes, it is a BIG risk...

 

[andjel]

Noel was paired with an offensive C last year who made his living in the post (Okafor). Is Okafor as good as Cousins? No, but you have to admit their are similarities, and I really am struggling to see how you think Noel had some sort of huge offensive role considering he was 13th on his team in shots per possession. He was already in this low usage mindset paired with an offensive minded center. Guess what? His offensive impact was still terrible. Do we really expect it to improve all that much here? I don't.

And again, you're missing the point. You can "minimize" a guys role on offense by limiting hit shots (which again is the argument that ORAPM does not equal scoring), but there are still other offensive factors that you are not considering. His floor spacing, his ability to be in thr right spot on the floor, his general offensive awareness/IQ, his ability to set good screens, avoiding turnovers, being able to make skillful & smart passes, offensive rebounding, how good his hands are, the list goes on and on. You can limit his "scoring" role, but these factors still play a role in his ability to be AT LEAST a neutral or slightly negative impact player on the offensive end.

Your DeAndre point is just speculative, and I never said that he needs to be able to create he own shot. He just needs to know how to play his role on offense, avoid mistakes, and do the little things on offense.



As I already stated, there's a lot of evidence to suggest his offensive impact wouldn't come close to neutral when moving to the Kings.

Yes, I believe it would take a hit playing him out of position because we already have evidence that he's less impactful when playing PF. If you're going to invest $18-$22 mil in a guy, you better be maximizing that said player, and to maximize Noel, you play him at C.

This evidence I'm talking about is first ane foremost that his defensive impact got worse in his second year (DRPM went from +3.35 in 2014-15 to +2.29 in 2015-16 and his Defensive On/Off went from -4.6 in 2014-15 to -2.3 in 2015-16). This had a lot to do with him being played at PF more and more considering they had Okafor on the roster as well. The year before, the only other center was Henry Sims, and he didn't play nearly as much as Okafor did last season which allowed Noel to play his best position....center.

Even his On/Off at PF & On/Off at C is eye popping.

2015-16 On/Off
PF = +2.4 pts per 100 poss
C = +13.1 pts per 100 poss

2014-15 On/Off
PF = -4.2 pts per 100 poss
C = +2.1 pts per 100 poss

Knowing that, Noel played 37% of his minutes at PF in 2015-16 & 21% of his minutes at PF in 2014-15. You can start to see why his impact decreased in his second year, but now you want to essentially bump his PF minutes from 37% to 60% (12 minutes as a backup C behind Cousins + 18 minutes as the starting PF = 30 minutes and 18 min / 30 min = 60%) and expect him to see here? Sorry, I'm not seeing it.



I'm very aware of the cap. No need for you to try to squeeze it into your argument like it's an oversight by myself.

And I do agree that $18-$22 for a game changing defense player is worth the investment. However, Noel's "game" doesn't make a difference right now (well I guess it might make a negative difference). It's illogical to lock up a lot of your cap on a player that may never become a neutral impact player. That's where I'm coming from.

You say the draft is "blind chance" which isn't true, but Noel is a pretty "well known chance," and what's well known has been his inability to stay on the floor & his inability to impact a game positively. There's other ways to improve our team without taking so a BIG risk, and yes, it is a BIG risk...

I cannot believe that you made yourself write all this after this game. How could you focus.

 

[twslam07]

I cannot believe that you made yourself write all this after this game. How could you focus.

There was a game on?

 

[lawlman91]

There was a game on?

One of the highlight games of Boogie's career, fam. You missed out

 

[twslam07]

One of the highlight games of Boogie's career, fam. You missed out

I saw it. That's why I put the "tongue face"

 

[kingsboi]

He boosted his trade value with tonight's performance, despite the mouthpiece and post game occurrences

 

[twslam07]

He boosted his trade value with tonight's performance, despite the mouthpiece and post game occurrences

Wrong thread?

 

[hrdboild]

Boogie should be a King for life... Or at least until he decides he's had enough. Players that good don't get traded for draft picks by organizations that are interested in winning. I've vacilated a bit this season because I'm still extremely disappointed that our front office can't assemble a halfway decent roster even with multiple first round picks and a generous serving of cap space but bottom line is this guy is the best player in franchise history, he's the face of this team, and we should count ourselves lucky that he wants to be here.

 

[KingMilz]

Pair him with Thad Young if they are going to build around him the Pacers want Rudy and shooting so AA + Rudy for Thad and Monta. Monta has sucked this year cause he's like the 5th option but every team he's been on since he left the Warriors as a #2nd/#1st option that team has made the playoffs from the Bucks/Mavs (a few times in a row)/last years Pacers. Him and Temple would be a fairly decent backcourt imo and you can bring in DC/Ty off the bench as the back ups since Ben is done basically.

 

[dude12]

Was thinking about how to build around Cousins.....and in part, the type of guy he is, which is a strong personality. I think the guys who have the best chance here are the guys who are not soft or passive. Rudy wants out in part, I just don't think he handles the Cuz personality. I think DC is also a guy that struggles with it. I think Temple is strong of mind. Koufos is solid there. Obviously Barnes was brought in as he's notorious for brash, don't take crap on the court play.

I think it could be another reason why Ben falls short here....too soft
WCS...might be too soft...not sure yet but he hasn't displayed a tough demeanor yet
Stauskas may have been the most timid of them all
Gay and DC as mentioned
Afflalo isn't soft....just über selfish it appears but not soft on the court

I'm thinking Lawson is also a guy that can definitely handle it

 

[kingsboi]

Wrong thread?

saracasm

 

[hrdboild]

Noel was paired with an offensive C last year who made his living in the post (Okafor). Is Okafor as good as Cousins? No, but you have to admit their are similarities, and I really am struggling to see how you think Noel had some sort of huge offensive role considering he was 13th on his team in shots per possession. He was already in this low usage mindset paired with an offensive minded center. Guess what? His offensive impact was still terrible. Do we really expect it to improve all that much here? I don't.

And again, you're missing the point. You can "minimize" a guys role on offense by limiting hit shots (which again is the argument that ORAPM does not equal scoring), but there are still other offensive factors that you are not considering. His floor spacing, his ability to be in thr right spot on the floor, his general offensive awareness/IQ, his ability to set good screens, avoiding turnovers, being able to make skillful & smart passes, offensive rebounding, how good his hands are, the list goes on and on. You can limit his "scoring" role, but these factors still play a role in his ability to be AT LEAST a neutral or slightly negative impact player on the offensive end.

Your DeAndre point is just speculative, and I never said that he needs to be able to create he own shot. He just needs to know how to play his role on offense, avoid mistakes, and do the little things on offense.



As I already stated, there's a lot of evidence to suggest his offensive impact wouldn't come close to neutral when moving to the Kings.

Yes, I believe it would take a hit playing him out of position because we already have evidence that he's less impactful when playing PF. If you're going to invest $18-$22 mil in a guy, you better be maximizing that said player, and to maximize Noel, you play him at C.

This evidence I'm talking about is first ane foremost that his defensive impact got worse in his second year (DRPM went from +3.35 in 2014-15 to +2.29 in 2015-16 and his Defensive On/Off went from -4.6 in 2014-15 to -2.3 in 2015-16). This had a lot to do with him being played at PF more and more considering they had Okafor on the roster as well. The year before, the only other center was Henry Sims, and he didn't play nearly as much as Okafor did last season which allowed Noel to play his best position....center.

Even his On/Off at PF & On/Off at C is eye popping.

2015-16 On/Off
PF = +2.4 pts per 100 poss
C = +13.1 pts per 100 poss

2014-15 On/Off
PF = -4.2 pts per 100 poss
C = +2.1 pts per 100 poss

Knowing that, Noel played 37% of his minutes at PF in 2015-16 & 21% of his minutes at PF in 2014-15. You can start to see why his impact decreased in his second year, but now you want to essentially bump his PF minutes from 37% to 60% (12 minutes as a backup C behind Cousins + 18 minutes as the starting PF = 30 minutes and 18 min / 30 min = 60%) and expect him to be more impactful here? Sorry, I'm not seeing it.



I'm very aware of the cap. No need for you to try to squeeze it into your argument like it's an oversight by myself.

And I do agree that $18-$22 for a game changing defense player is worth the investment. However, Noel's "game" doesn't make a difference right now (well I guess it might make a negative difference). It's illogical to lock up a lot of your cap on a player that may never become a neutral impact player. That's where I'm coming from.

You say the draft is "blind chance" which isn't true, but Noel is a pretty "well known chance," and what's well known has been his inability to stay on the floor & his inability to impact a game positively. There's other ways to improve our team without taking such a BIG risk, and yes, it is a BIG risk...

The draft isn't blind chance... the draft lottery is blind chance. The draft itself is the opposite of blind chance which is why I'm so annoyed that we keep blowing it year after year. But if you want to get better (obviously we do) and you think you can do that by stockpiling draft picks you have to admit that: (1) even losing doesn't guarantee you a top 3 pick (2) you have no control over who is in the draft year to year and not all draft classes are equal.

I wasn't trying to mock you by bringing up the salary cap, it's just that so many people have an idea of what "overpaid" means that is no longer accurate. The best players in the league are going to be making $35-40 million a year now. Compared to that, $18-22 million is middle of the road. It's only half of a max contract which means it's roughly equivalent to what a $10-12 million a year contract used to be. That's not necessarily even a starter, teams will pay a top bench player that much.

To a certain extent the distinction between PF and C is semantics. Tim Duncan was the best C in the league for over a decade and that whole time he called himself a PF. Did he shoot threes? No. Did he dribble the ball up the court and kick off the offense? No. What makes him a PF instead of a C then? Nothing, really. It's an arbitrary distinction. You're trying to tell me that Jahlil Okafor is a similar player to DeMarcus... I can't buy that. It's not even close. Okafor has no outside game, he can't create shots from the perimeter, he's not getting double-teamed, he's not finding open shots for other players, and he's not getting to the free throw line 10 times a game. And he's not even half the player DeMarcus is on defense. Trying to equate those two situations is purely speculative on your part. This whole post is based on you looking at one year of data and making speculations based on it that are your opinions. This is why I hate on/off based stats! It's so vague that you can fill in the blanks with whatever you want. All sorts of different conclusions could be made based on that same set of data and you'd still need to wait a couple years to see if your conclusions hold up or not.

And the main point -- all those offensive factors that you think I'm disregarding are the reasons why I don't think Noel would be a net detriment for us offensively. He does make intelligent passes. His hands are really good for catching the ball though he has issues finishing at times. He came into the league with no jumpshot which drags down everything else that he does well (especially when paired with another non-shooter like Jahlil) but if you look at his shooting splits, he's had months where he's actually pretty good. It's mostly a consistency issue so I think he should be able to develop his jumper into a semi-reliable weapon over time like Jason Thompson did. He flies up the court on fast breaks often beating the guards down the floor. He can play way above the rim so he'll always be a potential alley-oop target. And perhaps the most important factor in my mind -- he's a really high energy player who's always getting after plays. There's enough there to work with on offense.

Trying to imagine the ideal front-court pairing for DeMarcus, I thought Al Horford would have been a perfect fit for us on both ends in this last off-season but we didn't make his list of potential destinations. We have to start thinking about this team building thing differently because the players you're looking for --proven impact players -- aren't going to come here. The only way we're getting a winning team next to DeMarcus is by stealing good players from bad GMs who don't realize how good they are. And at that point we're talking about potential not production, which is all eye of the beholder stuff. Stats are nice to confirm or dismiss beliefs but for the most part I trust what I see. That's always been how I operate and my vindication is in waiting for time to prove me right. Like when I got flat out called an idiot for saying Devin Booker would be a better player than Willie Cauley-Stein. Or when I said Jimmer Fredette is not an NBA level talent. Or when I said Mo Speights is going to be a better player than Jason Thompson. Violent negative reaction, a flurry of facts and figures thrown at me, and what do you know my suspicions were confirmed.

I think Nerlens Noel is a monster on the defensive end. I don't have stats to show you that, well I have some but the sample size is small and you never like my stats anyway. But that's my belief based on what I've seen. Furthermore, I think he would be the best possible fit for us next to DeMarcus. You could put a shooter there but how much are they helping you on defense? Not to mention, we lose control of the boards whenever we go small. No, I'm always building the team from the point of view of the defense first and in that regard I want the ultimate team-defender out there in that second front court spot ready to rotate to the rim, bust up pick and rolls by walling off the paint, denying post entry passes, and just generally wreaking havoc by forcing turnovers and stuffing shots. Nobody else who could do this is even remotely available. This is the guy to get and now is the time to get him while the flurry of Embiid euphoria has made Noel the forgotten man in their rotation.

 

[twslam07]

To a certain extent the distinction between PF and C is semantics. Tim Duncan was the best C in the league for over a decade and that whole time he called himself a PF. Did he shoot threes? No. Did he dribble the ball up the court and kick off the offense? No. What makes him a PF instead of a C then? Nothing, really. It's an arbitrary distinction. You're trying to tell me that Jahlil Okafor is a similar player to DeMarcus... I can't buy that. It's not even close. Okafor has no outside game, he can't create shots from the perimeter, he's not getting double-teamed, he's not finding open shots for other players, and he's not getting to the free throw line 10 times a game. And he's not even half the player DeMarcus is on defense. Trying to equate those two situations is purely speculative on your part. This whole post is based on you looking at one year of data and making speculations based on it that are your opinions. This is why I hate on/off based stats! It's so vague that you can fill in the blanks with whatever you want. All sorts of different conclusions could be made based on that same set of data and you'd still need to wait a couple years to see if your conclusions hold up or not.

The stats shouldn't be looked at "how does Noel do when he plays PF," it should be "how does Noel do when he is paired with another C?" The stats show that when he is paired with another C, he is not as effective. Again, you could be potentially minimizing his effectiveness even more by giving him even more minutes next to a C here in Sacramento.

And the main point -- all those offensive factors that you think I'm disregarding are the reasons why I don't think Noel would be a net detriment for us offensively. He does make intelligent passes. His hands are really good for catching the ball though he has issues finishing at times. He came into the league with no jumpshot which drags down everything else that he does well (especially when paired with another non-shooter like Jahlil) but if you look at his shooting splits, he's had months where he's actually pretty good. It's mostly a consistency issue so I think he should be able to develop his jumper into a semi-reliable weapon over time like Jason Thompson did. He flies up the court on fast breaks often beating the guards down the floor. He can play way above the rim so he'll always be a potential alley-oop target. And perhaps the most important factor in my mind -- he's a really high energy player who's always getting after plays. There's enough there to work with on offense.

But if he does so many things well on offense, why is he a detriment to his team on that side of the floor? It's curious really...

Trying to imagine the ideal front-court pairing for DeMarcus, I thought Al Horford would have been a perfect fit for us on both ends in this last off-season but we didn't make his list of potential destinations. We have to start thinking about this team building thing differently because the players you're looking for --proven impact players -- aren't going to come here. The only way we're getting a winning team next to DeMarcus is by stealing good players from bad GMs who don't realize how good they are. And at that point we're talking about potential not production, which is all eye of the beholder stuff. Stats are nice to confirm or dismiss beliefs but for the most part I trust what I see. That's always been how I operate and my vindication is in waiting for time to prove me right. Like when I got flat out called an idiot for saying Devin Booker would be a better player than Willie Cauley-Stein. Or when I said Jimmer Fredette is not an NBA level talent. Or when I said Mo Speights is going to be a better player than Jason Thompson. Violent negative reaction, a flurry of facts and figures thrown at me, and what do you know my suspicions were confirmed.

Really? I would have imagined A. Davis, prime Ibaka, or Porzingis, but I guess Horford is alright too Don't get me wrong. I'm not expecting any big time FAs to walk through that door, but just because they won't does not mean we have to take a risk such as this one.

And you're wrong for classifying me as someone who is only looking for proven impact players. I was very clear about what I was after. If you're going to be handing out long term sizable contracts, that player better make an impact and contribute to wins (Noel doesn't at this point in time). If you want to bet on potential, bet on potential that will not be a RFA this year or potentially allow some team to hand out a hefty contract on potential alone.

I think Nerlens Noel is a monster on the defensive end. I don't have stats to show you that, well I have some but the sample size is small and you never like my stats anyway. But that's my belief based on what I've seen. Furthermore, I think he would be the best possible fit for us next to DeMarcus. You could put a shooter there but how much are they helping you on defense? Not to mention, we lose control of the boards whenever we go small. No, I'm always building the team from the point of view of the defense first and in that regard I want the ultimate team-defender out there in that second front court spot ready to rotate to the rim, bust up pick and rolls by walling off the paint, denying post entry passes, and just generally wreaking havoc by forcing turnovers and stuffing shots. Nobody else who could do this is even remotely available. This is the guy to get and now is the time to get him while the flurry of Embiid euphoria has made Noel the forgotten man in their rotation.

I have stats to show you that!

And I will go as far as saying that he could "potentially" be an excellent fit next to Cousins. If he finds his niche on offense and is able to develop a midrange jumper down the road, but I'm not willing to give out 20-25% of my cap to someone who may potentially be a good fit or someone who has yet to prove he contributes to winning or someone who plays 50% of his games. I think you're seriously underrating his health concerns. If he was just a guy who has potential and no major injury history or who contributes to winning and has a major injury history, I might feel a little more comfortable with the risk. However, we'd be fighting a two front war in Noel's case. I think Germany would tell you that it's not the best strategy

 

[Jimbob]

Pair him with Thad Young if they are going to build around him the Pacers want Rudy and shooting so AA + Rudy for Thad and Monta. Monta has sucked this year cause he's like the 5th option but every team he's been on since he left the Warriors as a #2nd/#1st option that team has made the playoffs from the Bucks/Mavs (a few times in a row)/last years Pacers. Him and Temple would be a fairly decent backcourt imo and you can bring in DC/Ty off the bench as the back ups since Ben is done basically.

I was surprised Young is only 28, seems like hes been in the league a lot longer than that. If hes a scrappy defender Im OK with your trade proposal, the last couple games have shown the Kings do pretty well when Cousins supporting cast shows up.

Monta, Im not sure. I have never been a huge fan, hes already 32 and I want to see Malachi and next year Bogdan get plenty of minutes.

 

[twslam07]

If I were to rebuild around Cousins while trying to keep it realistic, I'd probably make these two deals:

Trade #1
OKC Gets: Rudy Gay & Ty Lawson
SAC Gets: Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Nick Collison, & Semaj Christon

Why for OKC? OKC adds another wing scorer that can help Westbrook out as they finish out the season. Lawson also probably gives them a current upgrade at PG to help improve their bench play.
Why for SAC? SAC gets a former lottery PG for two expirings (one of which most likely will not be returning next year)


Trade #2
CHI Gets: Darren Collison & Kosta Koufos
SAC Gets: Rajon Rondo, Jerian Grant, & Chicago's 2017 1st Round Pick (Top 20 Protected)

Why for CHI? They replace Rondo with a more complementary PG next to both Wade & Butler and pickup a good backup C to always give them a solid, defensive, 7 foot center out on the floor for all 48 minutes.
Why for SAC? Grant is a minor asset who may still have some potential as a backup PG while the 1st round pick gives us the ability to add another young asset (Rondo is just filler and can be waived if need be)


Roster to Finish Out the Season:
PG - Rondo / Payne / Grant / Christon
SG - Temple / Afflalo / McLemore / Richardson
SF - Casspi / Barnes
PF - Tolliver / Cauley-Stein / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Papagiannis
*Morrow & Collison are waived

I think that roster would potentially prevent us from making it into the playoffs and thus help us keep our 2017 1st round pick which is top 10 protected. Going into the offseason, the team would look like this if we cut our unguaranteed players:

PG - Payne / Grant / Christon
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Papagiannis

Taking into account the cap holds on our two 1st round picks (ours & Chicago's) and Bogdanovic's salary, we'd probably have approximately $40 mil in cap space. This is the Sacramento Kings so it's likely we're not able to sign a big time FA with that money, but it still gives us the opportunity to sign a good player (the pipedream would be Otto Porter in my scenario) or make some trades that allow us to take on salary. If we were able to steal Porter away, we could maybe draft someone like Fox with our pick and then use the pick we got from Chicago on someone like Hartenstein. Then you resign Casspi and you have your team for next year:

PG - Fox / Payne / Grant / Christon
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Porter / Casspi / Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Labissiere / Hartenstein
C - Cousins / Papagiannis

Or if we can't sign a guy of Porter's caliber, perhaps we use our 1st to draft a guy like Isaac or Tatum to help fill the SF void, and then use Chicago's 1st round pick on Jawun Evans. In free agency, we could resign Casspi & pick-up Tolliver's team option.

PG - Payne / Grant / Evans / Christon
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Isaac / Casspi / Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Labissiere / Tolliver
C - Cousins / Papagiannis



This is how I think the Kings should be trying to restructure going into next season. Losing our 1st round pick may be exciting for this year (since it would mean we're close to a playoff berth), but it's really hard to see a bright future if that happens. We desperately need that pick and we desperately need to hit with it. A future starting lineup of Payne/Richardson/Isaac/Labissiere/Cousins w/ a 2nd unit of Evans/Bogdanovic/Casspi/Cauley-Stein/Papagiannis has the potential to be a great team. If you lose our 1st or stand pat on our expirings to help us compete this year, you essentially take away Payne, Evans, Grant, & Isaac from our future lineup. That future isn't as bright all of a sudden. Is Richardson, Bogdanovic, Cauley-Stein, Labissiere, & Papagiannis enough young talent to build a winner around Cousins because we really should not be relying on any significant talent to walk through that door during FA (despite my pipedream of Porter)...

 

[hrdboild]

This is driving me nuts! Detroit has lost 5 games in a row and they're down to the 11th spot. Philadelphia is still limiting Noel to 10 min per game and generally refusing to acknowledge his existence. There will never be a better time to trade for them. In another month the opportunity could be gone.

We're surviving right now on Boogie mojo and all of our veterans finally contributing for the first time all season. That's the basketball equivalent of smoke and mirrors. It's not going to last all season. I believe in Boogie Cousins but I don't believe in Afflalo, Lawson, Barnes, Tolliver, or sadly Collison and Gay being anything more than intermittent contributors at this point.

 

[hrdboild]

The stats shouldn't be looked at "how does Noel do when he plays PF," it should be "how does Noel do when he is paired with another C?" The stats show that when he is paired with another C, he is not as effective. Again, you could be potentially minimizing his effectiveness even more by giving him even more minutes next to a C here in Sacramento.

What those stats show is that Nerlens Noel's impact last season was worse than in his rookie season. I wouldn't disagree if you just wanted to say he was affected negatively by playing with Jahlil Okafor. That team also had a revolving door PG situation and lost one of the more underrated defenders in the league (Mbah a Moute) to free agency though. To isolate just one factor and say that the decline is solely the result of matching him up with another C is already suspect but then extrapolating from this that he'll also suffer next to Cousins is not empirical fact, it's speculation.

But if he does so many things well on offense, why is he a detriment to his team on that side of the floor? It's curious really...

Didn't those same stats show that DeMarcus was a net detriment on offense his first 2 or 3 years in the league? I don't think anyone is making that argument now. The eye test said DeMarcus had all the tools to be a dominating force on offense from day one but turnovers and shooting percentages were holding him back. I'm not suggesting that Noel will ever be a force on offense but he should get better than he is now just by making incremental improvements. And my point from the beginning has been that he's so good on defense that he doesn't really need to get much better offensively to be a foundational player for us.

Really? I would have imagined A. Davis, prime Ibaka, or Porzingis, but I guess Horford is alright too Don't get me wrong. I'm not expecting any big time FAs to walk through that door, but just because they won't does not mean we have to take a risk such as this one.

Horford was a free agent. Those other guys are pipedreams. I'm not interested in building perfect teams on paper if there's no plausible way to make them real. I also think Horford is incredibly underrated for all sorts of reasons which don't show up in a box score.

And you're wrong for classifying me as someone who is only looking for proven impact players. I was very clear about what I was after. If you're going to be handing out long term sizable contracts, that player better make an impact and contribute to wins (Noel doesn't at this point in time). If you want to bet on potential, bet on potential that will not be a RFA this year or potentially allow some team to hand out a hefty contract on potential alone.

Right now we're talking about trading for Noel on an expiring contact using two expiring contracts and a different all-defense big man who's not contributing much for us. We'll have a full 3 and a half months to see if Noel is worth the big contract that I think he's worth and if he's not we haven't lost much anyway. Even if Nerlens never gets better than he is right now, he's a better player than Cauley-Stein. I don't even really see why this is problematic for you. WCS's best case scenario is a player who impacts the game on the defensive end only with little offensive impact. Noel is the best proven defensive contributer available right now by far.

And I will go as far as saying that he could "potentially" be an excellent fit next to Cousins. If he finds his niche on offense and is able to develop a midrange jumper down the road, but I'm not willing to give out 20-25% of my cap to someone who may potentially be a good fit or someone who has yet to prove he contributes to winning or someone who plays 50% of his games. I think you're seriously underrating his health concerns. If he was just a guy who has potential and no major injury history or who contributes to winning and has a major injury history, I might feel a little more comfortable with the risk. However, we'd be fighting a two front war in Noel's case. I think Germany would tell you that it's not the best strategy

If you're going to step back to this point of view than I think we can find some middle ground. The injury concerns are the biggest risk for me because I fully believe in his talent but those concerns are considerable. It's a fair point, I just think we need to do something bold to jump out of this middle of the pack malaise we've settled into and I'll take a chance on players I believe in. If it's injuries that do him in, well, them's the breaks. That can happen to anyone at anytime whether you see it coming or not.

 

[Section 101]

If I were to rebuild around Cousins while trying to keep it realistic, I'd probably make these two deals:

Trade #1
OKC Gets: Rudy Gay & Ty Lawson
SAC Gets: Cameron Payne, Anthony Morrow, Nick Collison, & Semaj Christon
Why for OKC? OKC adds another wing scorer that can help Westbrook out as they finish out the season. Lawson also probably gives them a current upgrade at PG to help improve their bench play.
Why for SAC? SAC gets a former lottery PG for two expirings (one of which most likely will not be returning next year)


Trade #2
CHI Gets: Darren Collison & Kosta Koufos
SAC Gets: Rajon Rondo, Jerian Grant, & Chicago's 2017 1st Round Pick (Top 20 Protected)

Why for CHI? They replace Rondo with a more complementary PG next to both Wade & Butler and pickup a good backup C to always give them a solid, defensive, 7 foot center out on the floor for all 48 minutes.
Why for SAC? Grant is a minor asset who may still have some potential as a backup PG while the 1st round pick gives us the ability to add another young asset (Rondo is just filler and can be waived if need be)


Roster to Finish Out the Season:
PG - Rondo / Payne / Grant / Christon
SG - Temple / Afflalo / McLemore / Richardson
SF - Casspi / Barnes
PF - Tolliver / Cauley-Stein / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Papagiannis
*Morrow & Collison are waived

I think that roster would potentially prevent us from making it into the playoffs and thus help us keep our 2017 1st round pick which is top 10 protected. Going into the offseason, the team would look like this if we cut our unguaranteed players:

PG - Payne / Grant / Christon
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Labissiere
C - Cousins / Papagiannis

Taking into account the cap holds on our two 1st round picks (ours & Chicago's) and Bogdanovic's salary, we'd probably have approximately $40 mil in cap space. This is the Sacramento Kings so it's likely we're not able to sign a big time FA with that money, but it still gives us the opportunity to sign a good player (the pipedream would be Otto Porter in my scenario) or make some trades that allow us to take on salary. If we were able to steal Porter away, we could maybe draft someone like Fox with our pick and then use the pick we got from Chicago on someone like Hartenstein. Then you resign Casspi and you have your team for next year:

PG - Fox / Payne / Grant / Christon
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Porter / Casspi / Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Labissiere / Hartenstein
C - Cousins / Papagiannis

Or if we can't sign a guy of Porter's caliber, perhaps we use our 1st to draft a guy like Isaac or Tatum to help fill the SF void, and then use Chicago's 1st round pick on Jawun Evans. In free agency, we could resign Casspi & pick-up Tolliver's team option.

PG - Payne / Grant / Evans / Christon
SG - Temple / Bogdanovic / Richardson
SF - Isaac / Casspi / Barnes
PF - Cauley-Stein / Labissiere / Tolliver
C - Cousins / Papagiannis



This is how I think the Kings should be trying to restructure going into next season. Losing our 1st round pick may be exciting for this year (since it would mean we're close to a playoff berth), but it's really hard to see a bright future if that happens. We desperately need that pick and we desperately need to hit with it. A future starting lineup of Payne/Richardson/Isaac/Labissiere/Cousins w/ a 2nd unit of Evans/Bogdanovic/Casspi/Cauley-Stein/Papagiannis has the potential to be a great team. If you lose our 1st or stand pat on our expirings to help us compete this year, you essentially take away Payne, Evans, Grant, & Isaac from our future lineup. That future isn't as bright all of a sudden. Is Richardson, Bogdanovic, Cauley-Stein, Labissiere, & Papagiannis enough young talent to build a winner around Cousins because we really should not be relying on any significant talent to walk through that door during FA (despite my pipedream of Porter)...

Kings would have to waive 2 players before making trade 1. I don't see they making any trades where they take on more players coming in than going out.

 

[twslam07]

Kings would have to waive 2 players before making trade 1. I don't see they making any trades where they take on more players coming in than going out.

I take it you didn't read the entire post.

 

[ParniValjak]

I have always liked Noel but if Joerger is our coach going forward (and there is no reason why he shouldn't be) and Cousins is our guy going forward (again, no reason why he shouldn't be) then I am not sure that Noel is that much of a better fit than Kosta. Noel is a great defender but ideally, you want someone who can add some shooting next to Cousins. A Serge Ibaka type, more than a Noel type.

If we do end up getting Noel, I am not sure that Joerger will much more of a use for him than he has for Kosta or Willie.

 

[pshn80]

I know it is no fun for you all but we have already rebuilt around Cuz. New this year is Afflalo, Barnes, Temple, Tolliver, Lawson plus 3 rookies. When you rebuild like this you had better allow plenty of time to let it jell. Ler's postpone this discussion until after the season. Of course we won't.

 

[Telemachus]

I have always liked Noel but if Joerger is our coach going forward (and there is no reason why he shouldn't be) and Cousins is our guy going forward (again, no reason why he shouldn't be) then I am not sure that Noel is that much of a better fit than Kosta. Noel is a great defender but ideally, you want someone who can add some shooting next to Cousins. A Serge Ibaka type, more than a Noel type.

If we do end up getting Noel, I am not sure that Joerger will much more of a use for him than he has for Kosta or Willie.

This is one of the reasons why I see Skal as possibly being our future PF. He has a nice mid range jump shot that he is expanding out to the 3 pt line. He has also been very active defensively for Reno while improving his ability to play physically down low.

 

[andjel]

I know it is no fun for you all but we have already rebuilt around Cuz. New this year is Afflalo, Barnes, Temple, Tolliver, Lawson plus 3 rookies. When you rebuild like this you had better allow plenty of time to let it jell. Ler's postpone this discussion until after the season. Of course we won't.

We are doing dual gig here, rebuild AND get some wins now.

I see rebuild as a more strategic plan where we want to be in 2-3 years. Win now is more tactical, short term to enable us to get where we want to be (deep playoff team-championship).

Those vets are just for wins and respectability now. They are good for this year where making a playoff is the goal, but I do not see them as a part of the starting unit for deep playoff team. Their contracts reflect that.
Considering age, their history and what they showed so far, I see two of them at the best being rotational players of the bench in two years (Temple and Lawson).
That's not for a rebuild.

Now rookies and Bogdan, they could be a part of the rebuild but it is too soon to tell.

What rebuild would be is getting 2-3 players that showed that they have place as starters for the deep playoff team and that fit Kings system.
Using Rudy (he is an example of starting quality player that does not fit in the Kings system) and money in the summer we should have enough resources to be in the play to achieve that rebuild goal.

Ideally, those targeted 2-3 players will sign with us and we can call it a big rebuild step.
If we cannot get them, grab few more vets like this year to keep us going and wait for the next round.

 

[Section 101]

I take it you didn't read the entire post.

I take it you dont understand league rules. You have to wave 2 before you can trade 2 for 4.

 

[twslam07]

I take it you dont understand league rules. You have to wave 2 before you can trade 2 for 4.

I take it you don't understand we have many other players to waive that are either expiring or have little money guaranteed next year. Must be frustrating to focus time on something that literally makes no difference. Keep up the good work...

 

[Section 101]

I take it you don't understand we have many other players to waive that are either expiring or have little money guaranteed next year. Must be frustrating to focus time on something that literally makes no difference. Keep up the good work...

Well who are you waiving? Skal? Malaki? There's no point waiving Morrow and Collison unless you have a plan to replace them.