Quality analysis on Bagley's Summer League

[John Galt]

Shouldn’t the GM have accountability regardless if the pick is the consensus pick or not?

I don't know what to say man... some of you guys might as well fire him already because you've got the deck stacked against him so bad. Yeah you're accountable. If he had taken a gimpy Porter or a flyer on Bamba that flops... then you fire the guy. To take a blue chip Duke big man - if it doesn't pan out that he is the second best in the bunch I don't believe that is a firing offense - no. no I don't.

 

[Livinthedream]

I don't mind the Bagley pick, but I get why it frustrates a lot of fans.

You have a guy like Doncic who is a proven winner and leader. It's very easy to see him fitting in to basically any teams long term plans and rotation. The guy has a very high basketball IQ and would've filled a major need for us. Plus I know a lot of us have soft spot for blue chip Euro prospects.

So seeing us pass on a guy like that for a raw big man prospect to add to our already large stable of big men, who lacks many of the skills needed for big men in today's NBA, not to mention a complete lack of a right hand whatsoever, is pretty hard to comprehend.

Plus there is the fact that we are all sick of losing, so knowing that the player we drafted is still a long way away from being a solid player, while the one we let get away could probably have started day one doesn't help things.

But it does sound like you have a problem with the Bagley pick. Just saying...

My issue is this. Many are speaking in terms of absolutes, where I don't see ANY draft pick as a guaranteed anything. All you can do is look at their resume's and measurables. If we're looking at Doncic's resume and projecting him to be a can't lose prospect, then there is nothing in Bagley's resume that says he's a loser either. Bagley's resume is as clean and promising as any one else. Condensing his basketball life down to 3 summer league games is really extreme when you look at his history of success at every level of basketball he's ever competed in.

Strictly banking on a resume at a less than NBA level is not reliable. Especially if the player doesn't quite measure up athletically or physically. Frank Mason III played for a great program, won tons of awards and did it for 4 years. He was even considered a very good defender. Yet....here we are with him. Mostly due to his lacking in the physical measurables.

I could sit here and pick apart every weakness that Doncic has and make him sound horrible right now. Because he has a ton of flaws as well. But the fact of the matter is, we need to see the product during the actual NBA season and how it progresses. Not summer league or practice. Not after a couple of games. Not even after a Euro league season.

 

[Chupacabra]

While summer league gives an interesting perspective on players who have not yet played a real NBA game, it cant be given more weight than all of the previous analyses that have been done on a given player. Its flawed logical reasoning, i learned it in college last week.

 

[sergmatt]

I don't know what to say man... some of you guys might as well fire him already because you've got the deck stacked against him so bad. Yeah you're accountable. If he had taken a gimpy Porter or a flyer on Bamba that flops... then you fire the guy. To take a blue chip Duke big man - if it doesn't pan out that he is the second best in the bunch I don't believe that is a firing offense - no. no I don't.

If Bagley doesn't still look like (or at least shows promising potential to look like) one of the Top 3 or 4 players from this draft at the end of next season then Vlade will be fired for it. If Bagley looks like a bust or mediocre role-player and Luka is looking like a budding star, Vlade will be fired as well he should be.

Almost every draft expert had Luka ranked ahead of Bagley. Many people even had Luka ranked ahead of Ayton. If you're Vlade and you want to go against the consensus because you know better.......that's fine but you better be right. If you're wrong you deserve to be fired. In actuality I think Vlade's future probably hangs more on Luka Doncic than it does on Bagley. By passing on Luka, Vlade was essentially making it clear that he didn't think Luka was anything special. If you thought he was special you take him at 2. Based on their current skill level and level of competition they played against last year........I think it's very safe to say that Luka is much more "NBA Ready" than Bagley. That means we'll probably have a really good idea if all the hype around Luka was warranted by the end of next season.

If Luka Doncic is already living up to the hype and making teammates better next season (and Bagley isn't doing much), Vivek Ranadive is going to take notice. How could he not? It's human nature and of course he's going to wonder "what if we took him?". Many people here preach patience but it's hard to be patient if you can see evidence of a better choice right in front of your face.

Granted he's made plenty of his own mistakes to slow the process but no way Vivek Ranadive is just going to give Vlade a free pass for blowing the 2nd Pick in a loaded draft. You especially don't get a free pass for blowing the 2nd Pick when you've already traded away your pick the following year. Some people want to act like that doesn't matter but how could it not, it has to be a factor. Only a loser owner would continue to put up with blown draft picks and bad trades even if he caused some of them. Remember the owner can't fire himself.

 

[sactowndog]

I don't know what to say man... some of you guys might as well fire him already because you've got the deck stacked against him so bad. Yeah you're accountable. If he had taken a gimpy Porter or a flyer on Bamba that flops... then you fire the guy. To take a blue chip Duke big man - if it doesn't pan out that he is the second best in the bunch I don't believe that is a firing offense - no. no I don't.

First off I wasn’t talking about Vlade specifically. Any GM should be evaluated on the quality of their draft picks. That result is core to their job. Nor should any GM be immune to evaluation against their peers. Whether a pick is a consensus selection or not should be irrelevant to the process. If you are an NBA GM that fact the pundits universally like player X is not a mitigating factor in your decision process.

 

[sactowndog]

If Bagley doesn't still look like (or at least shows promising potential to look like) one of the Top 3 or 4 players from this draft at the end of next season then Vlade will be fired for it. If Bagley looks like a bust or mediocre role-player and Luka is looking like a budding star, Vlade will be fired as well he should be.

Almost every draft expert had Luka ranked ahead of Bagley. Many people even had Luka ranked ahead of Ayton. If you're Vlade and you want to go against the consensus because you know better.......that's fine but you better be right. If you're wrong you deserve to be fired. In actuality I think Vlade's future probably hangs more on Luka Doncic than it does on Bagley. By passing on Luka, Vlade was essentially making it clear that he didn't think Luka was anything special. If you thought he was special you take him at 2. Based on their current skill level and level of competition they played against last year........I think it's very safe to say that Luka is much more "NBA Ready" than Bagley. That means we'll probably have a really good idea if all the hype around Luka was warranted by the end of next season.

If Luka Doncic is already living up to the hype and making teammates better next season (and Bagley isn't doing much), Vivek Ranadive is going to take notice. How could he not? It's human nature and of course he's going to wonder "what if we took him?". Many people here preach patience but it's hard to be patient if you can see evidence of a better choice right in front of your face.

Granted he's made plenty of his own mistakes to slow the process but no way Vivek Ranadive is just going to give Vlade a free pass for blowing the 2nd Pick in a loaded draft. You especially don't get a free pass for blowing the 2nd Pick when you've already traded away your pick the following year. Some people want to act like that doesn't matter but how could it not, it has to be a factor. Only a loser owner would continue to put up with blown draft picks and bad trades even if he caused some of them. Remember the owner can't fire himself.

Next year is too soon to make an evaluation on Bagley but if Jackson and particularly Fox don’t show improvement Vlade could well be shown the door on that basis regardless of what happens with Bagley.

 

[sergmatt]

Next year is too soon to make an evaluation on Bagley but if Jackson and particularly Fox don’t show improvement Vlade could well be shown the door on that basis regardless of what happens with Bagley.

That's why i mentioned Doncic probably being more important to Vlade's job security than Bagley. Correct in that we probably won't know on Bagley next year either way....but if Luka Doncic starts looking like a franchise changing star next year the perception (and a lot of reality) will be that Vlade messed up. I mean really who would want to wait around another two years on Bagley to see what he is if Luka comes out the gates strong?

 

[Folsomkingsfan]

But it does sound like you have a problem with the Bagley pick. Just saying...

My issue is this. Many are speaking in terms of absolutes, where I don't see ANY draft pick as a guaranteed anything. All you can do is look at their resume's and measurables. If we're looking at Doncic's resume and projecting him to be a can't lose prospect, then there is nothing in Bagley's resume that says he's a loser either. Bagley's resume is as clean and promising as any one else. Condensing his basketball life down to 3 summer league games is really extreme when you look at his history of success at every level of basketball he's ever competed in.

Strictly banking on a resume at a less than NBA level is not reliable. Especially if the player doesn't quite measure up athletically or physically. Frank Mason III played for a great program, won tons of awards and did it for 4 years. He was even considered a very good defender. Yet....here we are with him. Mostly due to his lacking in the physical measurables.

I could sit here and pick apart every weakness that Doncic has and make him sound horrible right now. Because he has a ton of flaws as well. But the fact of the matter is, we need to see the product during the actual NBA season and how it progresses. Not summer league or practice. Not after a couple of games. Not even after a Euro league season.

I wanted doncic personally, but if I was picking third bagley would've been my guy. While I do recognize bagleys weaknesses, I also think his athleticism is off the charts and his rebounding instincts are great too. I can see why the kings liked him.

 

[Turgenev]

I thought those videos were generally positive. Good motor. Physically capable. Good box outs. Offensive rebounding. Better defense than advertised. Issues with spacing and awareness will improve throughout the season. Up to him to work on his right hand, improve his offensive repertoire. Up to coaching staff to put him in the right positions on offense. Seems like a talented rookie.

 

[whozit]

That's why i mentioned Doncic probably being more important to Vlade's job security than Bagley. Correct in that we probably won't know on Bagley next year either way....but if Luka Doncic starts looking like a franchise changing star next year the perception (and a lot of reality) will be that Vlade messed up. I mean really who would want to wait around another two years on Bagley to see what he is if Luka comes out the gates strong?

Keep in mind Vivek went and saw Doncic in person. Ate dinner with him. My guess is Vivek was on board with the decision for Bagley. Fans might clamor for Vlade's head and it could happen but I doubt it will be because of Doncic.

 

[ppine]

There's a big difference between picking #2 and #5... oh and DONCIC who's already NBA ready and fills a need for this team. Being picked at #2 means you should have the franchise weight on your shoulders. There would've been the same expectations if we had drafted Doncic. Idk, at some point, we have to stop babying our draft prospects. However, Bagley is really young, so he get's a pass for his rookie year, but the expectations are completely rational especially in this very talented draft.

All logical fans knew WCS was a high level role player at best. That's not the same expectation for Bagley..who in theory, should be a bluechip prospect.

There have #1 drafted players that have been a bust and IT was drafted last in the draft. The difference between a 2 and 5 is often minimal.

 

[Kingsfan23]

He’s catching some flack over at SactownRoyalty for talking about himself being a MVP candidate this season..

Overall, I don’t have a problem with that type of thinking as it suggests motor, and that he will work on his game. WCS hasn’t been a good example IMO, but usually IMO it’s easier to reach the sky when you reach for the moon. I’d rather see it than a kid who is indifferent, but many over there see it different. Though I still have my concerns

 

[dude12]

He’s catching some flack over at SactownRoyalty for talking about himself being a MVP candidate this season..

Overall, I don’t have a problem with that type of thinking as it suggests motor, and that he will work on his game. WCS hasn’t been a good example IMO, but usually IMO it’s easier to reach the sky when you reach for the moon. I’d rather see it than a kid who is indifferent, but many over there see it different. Though I still have my concerns

I guess all the professional athletes over at Sactown Royalty know better on how to motivate Bagley better than himself. I personally like the swag coming from the young guys. These guys have high expectations of themselves.

 

[miltonap]

Love the attitude. How are you supposed to be the best if you dont think like the best ?

 

[Joshoua]

Love the attitude. How are you supposed to be the best if you dont think like the best ?

Dion Waiters once thought he was a better than Kyrie and should’ve been the franchise player in Cleveland.

If Bagley can get position on players I’ll be satisfied.

 

[kingsboi]

Love the attitude. How are you supposed to be the best if you dont think like the best ?

but wait....how is that mentality working out for Willie? There's being confident and there is being delusional.

 

[miltonap]

Are you guys saying you'd rather have someone who doesn't have that attitude? Winners think like winners.

 

[gunks]

Reading the quote, it would seem Bagley used the MVP question to make a statement on his confidence and work ethic. I don't think he really thinks he has a shot at it, but he does believe in setting a high bar.

It's a silly statement for sure, but I don't know why anyone would get mad about it. Maybe it's the WCS effect.

 

[ESP47]

Have no problem at all with Bagley having confidence like that. He has the right mentality and it's not like he guaranteed an MVP. His comment is similar to Giles comment when he was asked who his favorite player was and he said "no one anymore".

I have no problem with Willie having it either. My only problem with Willie's perceived confidence is that he seems to not do the things he was drafted to do in order to try and achieve the things he thinks he's capable of. In the end he's not really doing either.

 

[midtowner]

I don’t understand all the negativity on this board for WCS. He was drafted as a project. He is progressing on the floor. He needs to make a jump this year - and he might. I’m not down with people acting like they can read his mind.

 

[King Baller]

Almost every draft expert had Luka ranked ahead of Bagley. .

If this is true why was he drafted third in the National Basketball Association, then traded?

 

[Kingsfan23]

It’s not just about Doncic. You can go down the list of Jackson, Carter, Bamba etc who looked better. Bagley’s play in SL could be confused with someone who won’t live up to near his pick. But it was SL and just s mere first impression

It doesn’t really help to not accept him as a player and not move on for me personally in terms of supporting Bagley, accept I’d want who picked him held accountable. That would be the needed closure to the episode if Bagley falls way short of expectations (in terms of trajectory this season)

But, Giles looked the part, knock on wood for his health, Skal is looking monstrous and talented and Bagley can turn out.

 

[sergmatt]

If this is true why was he drafted third in the National Basketball Association, then traded?

I said almost every expert and obviously Vlade was one of those exceptions. He was traded for an additional first round pick for Dallas to move up two spots to get him. Dallas obviously thought he had immense value and then paid the price to get him.

By the way Kings and Hawks are both not exactly known for making great decisions. So both of them passing on Luka doesn't't mean that Luka wasnt the best pick.

 

[King Baller]

I dont think the Summer League scrimmage games are that important. It gets the Rookies and Second Year guys a little exposure. I mean Donte Greene once scored 42 points in a SL scrimmage and the Kings won the SL scrimmage championship a while back led by a PG whose name I can't remember. I do remember he was a nice young Man whose Father was a Coach in the NCAA.

But pretending these games predict anything is kind of silly.........IMO

 

[King Baller]

I said almost every expert and obviously Vlade was one of those exceptions. He was traded for an additional first round pick for Dallas to move up two spots to get him. Dallas obviously thought he had immense value and then paid the price to get him.

By the way Kings and Hawks are both not exactly known for making great decisions. So both of them passing on Luka doesn't't mean that Luka wasnt the best pick.

Then why did we not hear of almost every GM trying to trade into the 3rd spot to get Doncic? I mean there was a little talk of GM's liking the guy. But stating "almost every expert" is beyond that by a wide margin.

Perhaps the definition of "expert" comes into play here I don't recall Doncic being #1 in many mock drafts, am I wrong??? I think most mocks had Doncic at #3---> http://www.nba.com/news/2018-consensus-mock-draft

FYI Doncic is who I wanted at #2 But Bagley is a nice consolation prize. especially with Fox, Bogi, Buddy and Giles on the squad!

 

[rhythmless]

Vivek was so confident he thought he was going to completely remake how basketball was played.

WCS is so confident that he's a star in the making he won't even bother with being a serviceable and reliable player.

It says nothing but gives ammo for the rest of the league to shake their head at how pathetic we are. Either he doesn't truly think he can be MVP, which would make this a nonsense statement and add zero value except that he opened his mouth, or he really thinks he has a shot, which means that he is Metta World Peace levels of delusional. Even if he does 25/10 and gets ROY, an MVP has to have good to great team success, which we will not have. If he's serious in the slightest, he doesn't understand the landscape of the NBA or how MVP voting works.

And now I'm worried about his IQ.

 

[Joshoua]

I dont think the Summer League scrimmage games are that important. It gets the Rookies and Second Year guys a little exposure. I mean Donte Greene once scored 42 points in a SL scrimmage and the Kings won the SL scrimmage championship a while back led by a PG whose name I can't remember. I do remember he was a nice young Man whose Father was a Coach in the NCAA.

But pretending these games predict anything is kind of silly.........IMO

I mean if he could get position on Jones how will that change vs actual nba players that play his position.

And his mvp comments don’t come off good when coupled with his embarrassing passing

 

[Section 101]

This is scary.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/8/16/17693220/marvin-bagley-rookie-curve-sacramento-kings

Marvin Bagley III had a rough NBA debut. The no. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft struggled at summer league, averaging 10.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting and 5.8 rebounds per game. It was nothing like his freshman season at Duke, when he was the most dominant player in the country. Bagley was bigger and faster than almost every player he was up against in college. It was hard to see the holes in his game until he faced better competition. The Kings rookie still has the potential to be an elite NBA player, but he’s a long way from reaching it. He’s the biggest boom-or-bust player in the rookie class.

 

[Capt. Factorial]

This is scary.

https://www.theringer.com/nba/2018/8/16/17693220/marvin-bagley-rookie-curve-sacramento-kings

Marvin Bagley III had a rough NBA debut. The no. 2 overall pick in this year’s draft struggled at summer league, averaging 10.3 points on 33.3 percent shooting and 5.8 rebounds per game. It was nothing like his freshman season at Duke, when he was the most dominant player in the country. Bagley was bigger and faster than almost every player he was up against in college. It was hard to see the holes in his game until he faced better competition. The Kings rookie still has the potential to be an elite NBA player, but he’s a long way from reaching it. He’s the biggest boom-or-bust player in the rookie class.

Meh.

I mean, which is more important, Bagley being the admitted-by-the-author "most dominant player in the country" over an entire college season as a freshman, or a handful of lackluster Summer League games? I'll take the whole college season as probably the better indicator of his ability, thank you very much.

And by the by in regards to the article, how about this:

Julius Randle, like Bagley, was a one-and-done lottery pick with a questionable outside shot. Over four NBA seasons, he’s averaged only 0.6 3-point attempts per game.

Umm, let's be real here. Randle shot 17% on 18 3PT attempts in college. Bagley shot 40% on 58 3PT attempts. Yes, that's exactly the same and indicates that Bagley will be a disastrous three-point shooter. Jeez.

Let's imagine that you told me that given the fact that it was his first rodeo and the three point line is a bit deeper than in college, that Marvin Bagley's "true" 3PT shooting percentage over his rookie Summer League would be 25% if he were to replay it over and over. That seems reasonable to me, given his 40% shooting in college on a good sample size and and a good-looking stroke. 25% just isn't too high. OK, so this time around, Bagley was 15% too low on a whole 10 shots (1-10 actual). Well, he's just as likely to have gone 15% too high, so over the long run there would presumably have been as many rookie Summer Leagues where Bagley shot 40% (4-10) from three. And seriously, if Bagley had shot 40% from three in Summer League, we'd be twisting ourselves into Möbius strips waiting for the season to start.

 

[Kingsfan23]

Meh.

I mean, which is more important, Bagley being the admitted-by-the-author "most dominant player in the country" over an entire college season as a freshman, or a handful of lackluster Summer League games? I'll take the whole college season as probably the better indicator of his ability, thank you very much.

And by the by in regards to the article, how about this:



Umm, let's be real here. Randle shot 17% on 18 3PT attempts in college. Bagley shot 40% on 58 3PT attempts. Yes, that's exactly the same and indicates that Bagley will be a disastrous three-point shooter. Jeez.

Let's imagine that you told me that given the fact that it was his first rodeo and the three point line is a bit deeper than in college, that Marvin Bagley's "true" 3PT shooting percentage over his rookie Summer League would be 25% if he were to replay it over and over. That seems reasonable to me, given his 40% shooting in college on a good sample size and and a good-looking stroke. 25% just isn't too high. OK, so this time around, Bagley was 15% too low on a whole 10 shots (1-10 actual). Well, he's just as likely to have gone 15% too high, so over the long run there would presumably have been as many rookie Summer Leagues where Bagley shot 40% (4-10) from three. And seriously, if Bagley had shot 40% from three in Summer League, we'd be twisting ourselves into Möbius strips waiting for the season to start.

I mean, I’m not trying to be negative but he was playing against a higher level of competition and an extended three. Could be argued that how he looked against professional or semi-professional competition, in albeit a small sample size, is maybe as indicative as college.

But, he’s talented, and it’s hard to put up what he did in a strong college conference without some chops, to be certain.

Hope it works out